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would the concept of MAD work with iran and isreal

fifefife Posts: 3,327
edited October 2009 in A Moving Train
during the cold war between teh USA and USSR, many believe that the concept of MAD or mutual assured destruction saved both countries into a war. The MAD doctrine assumes that neither side will dare to launch a first strike because the other side will launch on warning or with secondary forces resulting in the destruction of both parties. The payoff of this doctrine is expected to be a tense but stable peace.

While talking to a friend of mine, we were discussing if this concept of MAD would work with isreal and Iran.

My friend said no since, he believes that the Iranian governemtn along with its people would be die for the movement. i don't know if he is right but it is an interesting idea.

what do you all believe. do you believe that if Iran had nukes and Isreal had them also woudl that make life more peaceful for both countries since both countries would be scared to attack the other for the reason laid out in the idea of MAD or do you believe like my friend who believes that IRAN woudl use there weapons first.
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  • arthurdentarthurdent Posts: 969
    MAD only works if you "don't" want the world to end. I don't really think Iran gives a rats ass.
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  • Hugh Freaking DillonHugh Freaking Dillon Posts: 14,010
    arthurdent wrote:
    MAD only works if you "don't" want the world to end.

    EXACTLY.
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  • fifefife Posts: 3,327
    arthurdent wrote:
    MAD only works if you "don't" want the world to end. I don't really think Iran gives a rats ass.

    so you really believe that teh leaders in iran don't care about being alive? i still don't believe that.
  • arthurdentarthurdent Posts: 969
    fife wrote:
    arthurdent wrote:
    MAD only works if you "don't" want the world to end. I don't really think Iran gives a rats ass.

    so you really believe that teh leaders in iran don't care about being alive? i still don't believe that.


    I don't exactly think that they don't care, just as long as they take out israel in the process. It's that whole martyrdom thing. Same thing with North Korea, really.
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  • ByrnzieByrnzie Posts: 21,037
    arthurdent wrote:
    I don't exactly think that they don't care, just as long as they take out israel in the process. It's that whole martyrdom thing. Same thing with North Korea, really.

    When was the last time Iran attacked anyone?
  • fifefife Posts: 3,327
    Byrnzie wrote:
    arthurdent wrote:
    I don't exactly think that they don't care, just as long as they take out israel in the process. It's that whole martyrdom thing. Same thing with North Korea, really.

    When was the last time Iran attacked anyone?

    fair question so do you believe that the concept of MAD would work in the middle east?
  • arthurdentarthurdent Posts: 969
    Byrnzie wrote:
    arthurdent wrote:
    I don't exactly think that they don't care, just as long as they take out israel in the process. It's that whole martyrdom thing. Same thing with North Korea, really.

    When was the last time Iran attacked anyone?

    directly or through their proxies?
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  • fifefife Posts: 3,327
    i am sorry i should have posted what i believe. i remember one time i was reading an article after a school shooting in american and there was discussion about how if everyone had a gun in teh school this would never have happen. i found it to be sad but i believed that maybe its true. maybe we need people to be scared so they don't do things that are bad and that is exactlly what MAD is.

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  • ByrnzieByrnzie Posts: 21,037
    arthurdent wrote:
    Byrnzie wrote:
    arthurdent wrote:
    I don't exactly think that they don't care, just as long as they take out israel in the process. It's that whole martyrdom thing. Same thing with North Korea, really.

    When was the last time Iran attacked anyone?

    directly or through their proxies?

    Both. When was the last time Iran attacked anyone?
  • arthurdentarthurdent Posts: 969
    Byrnzie wrote:
    Both. When was the last time Iran attacked anyone?

    Directly... Iran/Iraq war comes to mind. Indirectly... you have to look at the links between Iran and Islamic terrorism. Basically, Iran's been gunning for The West since '79.
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  • ByrnzieByrnzie Posts: 21,037
    arthurdent wrote:
    Byrnzie wrote:
    Both. When was the last time Iran attacked anyone?

    Directly... Iran/Iraq war comes to mind. Indirectly... you have to look at the links between Iran and Islamic terrorism. Basically, Iran's been gunning for The West since '79.

    I think you'll find that it was Iraq that attacked Iran, and these links with Islamic terrorism are all spurious and ultimately groundless.

    Now tell me how many times Israel has attacked anyone in the past 50 years?
  • CJMST3KCJMST3K Posts: 9,722
    arthurdent wrote:
    MAD only works if you "don't" want the world to end. I don't really think Iran gives a rats ass.


    +1
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  • arthurdentarthurdent Posts: 969
    Byrnzie wrote:
    arthurdent wrote:
    Byrnzie wrote:
    Both. When was the last time Iran attacked anyone?

    Directly... Iran/Iraq war comes to mind. Indirectly... you have to look at the links between Iran and Islamic terrorism. Basically, Iran's been gunning for The West since '79.

    I think you'll find that it was Iraq that attacked Iran, and these links with Islamic terrorism are all spurious and ultimately groundless.

    Now tell me how many times Israel has attacked anyone in the past 50 years?


    I'm not going to defend Israel. Hell, I think dumping the Jews into a place where they weren't wanted just because it was their "bilbical" right is probably the biggest foreign policy mistake in the past century. Personally, I think we ought to tell the entire region to fuck off. Israel included.
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  • ByrnzieByrnzie Posts: 21,037
    arthurdent wrote:
    MAD only works if you "don't" want the world to end. I don't really think Iran gives a rats ass.

    And you base this assumption on what exactly?
  • fifefife Posts: 3,327
    please lets try not just to turn this into a debate about who is more wrong Israel or iran. the thread is about whether the concept of MAD would work.
  • ByrnzieByrnzie Posts: 21,037
    fife wrote:
    please lets try not just to turn this into a debate about who is more wrong Israel or iran. the thread is about whether the concept of MAD would work.

    No one said anything who is 'more wrong'. We were simply looking at both countries track records re: aggression. I'd rather see a stable country like Iran have nukes than a racist, aggressive rogue state like Israel.
  • g under pg under p Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,200
    Byrnzie wrote:
    fife wrote:
    please lets try not just to turn this into a debate about who is more wrong Israel or iran. the thread is about whether the concept of MAD would work.

    No one said anything who is 'more wrong'. We were simply looking at both countries track records re: aggression. I'd rather see a stable country like Iran have nukes than a racist, aggressive rogue state like Israel.


    I totally agree look what they did to Mordechai Vanunu for just revealing that Isarel had nukes.

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  • Drowned OutDrowned Out Posts: 6,056
    Byrnzie wrote:
    arthurdent wrote:
    Byrnzie wrote:
    Both. When was the last time Iran attacked anyone?

    Directly... Iran/Iraq war comes to mind. Indirectly... you have to look at the links between Iran and Islamic terrorism. Basically, Iran's been gunning for The West since '79.

    I think you'll find that it was Iraq that attacked Iran, and these links with Islamic terrorism are all spurious and ultimately groundless.

    Now tell me how many times Israel has attacked anyone in the past 50 years?
    I think you'll also find that Iran has been gunning for the West for much longer than 30 years. I don't blame them.
  • blackredyellowblackredyellow Posts: 5,889
    arthurdent wrote:
    MAD only works if you "don't" want the world to end. I don't really think Iran gives a rats ass.

    I'm disagreeing too... ever notice that the "leaders" of these extremist movements are never the ones to die for the cause?

    North Korea won't attack South Korea, Iran won't attack Israel, because the people in those governments are more interested in being in power and getting attention to satisfy their egos, than dying for any "cause".
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  • tybirdtybird Posts: 17,388
    The mutual destruction of two of the larger landmasses(The U.S. and the former Soviet Union) on the planet would probably mean tits up for everybody else....that global event possibility was the scary part of MAD as related to the Cold War meaning.....if Iran wiped out Israel how would the rest of the Islamic world react to the destruction of some of their scared sites?
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  • ByrnzieByrnzie Posts: 21,037
    Drowned Out wrote:
    I think you'll also find that Iran has been gunning for the West for much longer than 30 years. I don't blame them.

    Gunning for the West how? By minding their own business and not engaging in any wars of aggression?
  • NoKNoK Posts: 824
    It wont work because the israelis are certain Iran would never deal it a complete destructive blow as this will mean they will wipe out the Palestinians too, the same people they are fighting for. This is why the israelis will continue to have the upper hand as long as they hold the Palestinians hostage. This adds to reasons why israelis dont want a two state solution. If they are to define their borders and shift all Palestinians to Palestine then they will lose that upper hand. A one state solution is out of the question as that would mean a Palestinian majority. So they will continue to delay until combining the two populations under a one state solution will lead to a significant jewish majority.
  • Drowned OutDrowned Out Posts: 6,056
    Byrnzie wrote:
    Drowned Out wrote:
    I think you'll also find that Iran has been gunning for the West for much longer than 30 years. I don't blame them.

    Gunning for the West how? By minding their own business and not engaging in any wars of aggression?
    Exactly. Minding their own busines = not part of the corporate agenda = threat to the empire = gunning for the west. See how that works? How dare they.
  • CommyCommy Posts: 4,984
    wouldn't it makemore sense to disarm everybody? rather than everyone having the power to possibly end the human race, i'd rather they didn't.

    at the least we need to get those weapons out of the Israelis hands, they have shown they really don't give a fuck about civilians.

    and MAD may have kept the war cold, but hundreds of billions of dollars were pissed away in those nuke programs, probably trillions.
  • catefrancescatefrances Posts: 29,003
    what is this cold war of which you all speak???
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  • CommyCommy Posts: 4,984
    edited October 2009
    that misconception that gave the west an excuse to do all sorts of terrible things around the world
    Post edited by Commy on
  • NoKNoK Posts: 824
    catefrances wrote:
    what is this cold war of which you all speak???

    One fought under refrigeration I'm assuming
  • catefrancescatefrances Posts: 29,003
    Commy wrote:
    that misconception that gave the west an excuse to do all sorts of terrible things around the world


    aaah right. that. i dont believe in the cold war anyways for that exact reason. not so cold when youre playing wizards chess with smaller nations.
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  • fifefife Posts: 3,327
    Commy wrote:
    wouldn't it makemore sense to disarm everybody? rather than everyone having the power to possibly end the human race, i'd rather they didn't.

    at the least we need to get those weapons out of the Israelis hands, they have shown they really don't give a fuck about civilians.

    and MAD may have kept the war cold, but hundreds of billions of dollars were pissed away in those nuke programs, probably trillions.

    i agree it would be better for no-one to have nukes but i don't see that happenning anytime in the future .
  • pateljampateljam Posts: 340
    Not that there is any proof to this... but I think that Iran would launch the nukes... So "No" MAD would with work in the middle east...
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