Capitalism, The Fed and Economic Policy

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  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 40,959
    It’s how the issue has been framed by COOTWH, that the costs of the tariffs will be borne by the exporting country, which is total bullshit. The cost is borne by the buyer, who then passes it along to the ultimate end buyer, the consumer. As such, end buyers don’t buy, importers don’t import, tariff revenue drops, factories/farms/production slows, less other things get bought, rinse/repeat.

    Long term, lasting damage has been done, thanks to the brilliant, brilliance of brilliancy of COOTWH and his tariffs chart. It’s all about image and no substance.
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  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,943
    mrussel1 said:
    PJ_Soul said:
    I know people are up in arms about this but are the tariffs really going to help the Govts coffers? I really want to hear a view on how it can work thats not a boot licker.

    I mean, it's more taxes going to the government, so yes, it will help the government's coffers just like other taxes do.
    I would argue it's a weak substitute.  Yes, tariffs will drive revenue to treasury short term, but the price increases will decrease demand, and therefore more likely to reduce gov revenue that it currently receives in the form of sales tax and business tax.  If sales go down, those tax receipts go down.  
    I see this would be the case.  I'm still not understanding what the end game is here?  WHat is the final result?  What are we expecting the outcome to be and for how long?

    or

    Is this market manipulation at its finest?  Wouldn't that be some shit?
  • Tim SimmonsTim Simmons Posts: 9,021
    mrussel1 said:
    PJ_Soul said:
    I know people are up in arms about this but are the tariffs really going to help the Govts coffers? I really want to hear a view on how it can work thats not a boot licker.

    I mean, it's more taxes going to the government, so yes, it will help the government's coffers just like other taxes do.
    I would argue it's a weak substitute.  Yes, tariffs will drive revenue to treasury short term, but the price increases will decrease demand, and therefore more likely to reduce gov revenue that it currently receives in the form of sales tax and business tax.  If sales go down, those tax receipts go down.  
    I see this would be the case.  I'm still not understanding what the end game is here?  WHat is the final result?  What are we expecting the outcome to be and for how long?

    or

    Is this market manipulation at its finest?  Wouldn't that be some shit?
    The best case is reduced trade barriers, but I don't think Trump is that magnanimous or that clever to know what he's doing. Maybe to disrupt China's economy (with Americans and their wallets being the collateral damage in the short term). He thinks America gets taken advantage of, and that has increased our trade deficit. But because hes a dummy, he probably doesn't realize that its that way because we are a central bank to the world and are an economy that the world flocks to.

    Most likely hes throwing a grenade into Global Trade so that those who can can benefit from it do, all while knowing that a new balance will eventually arrive and doing it under the guise that it will benefit Americans with production brought home and more jobs (which it won't). 


  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,600
    mrussel1 said:
    PJ_Soul said:
    I know people are up in arms about this but are the tariffs really going to help the Govts coffers? I really want to hear a view on how it can work thats not a boot licker.

    I mean, it's more taxes going to the government, so yes, it will help the government's coffers just like other taxes do.
    I would argue it's a weak substitute.  Yes, tariffs will drive revenue to treasury short term, but the price increases will decrease demand, and therefore more likely to reduce gov revenue that it currently receives in the form of sales tax and business tax.  If sales go down, those tax receipts go down.  
    I see this would be the case.  I'm still not understanding what the end game is here?  WHat is the final result?  What are we expecting the outcome to be and for how long?

    or

    Is this market manipulation at its finest?  Wouldn't that be some shit?
    The super-cynic in me can conclude that he is driving a dip so he and his friends can buy it.  

    But I don't think that's actually the case because for many years he has talked favorably and ignorantly about tariffs and trade deficits.  

    The problem is that his rhetoric fundamentally doesn't make sense.  His talking points oppose each other.  To wit:

    1.  Sometimes they say it's to bring back manufacturing.  Okay, tariffs can do that.  But that means much more expensive goods and long periods of economic pain.  And we know that US politicians have no stomach for such a thing.  And there is no "negotiating" with other countries because the only way to make this work is to raise the tariffs to the point where it is less expensive to make the product here than in another country.  And considering our cost of labor is about the highest in the world, it will take a high tariff to be cheaper than Asia.  

    2. Then other times they say it's to "get better terms" or reduce the corresponding tariff, etc.  But that conflicts directly with point 1.  If tariffs were even, that might create fairer trade but it will not bring jobs back to the US.  It's a complete contradiction of that strategy.  

    That's why it's so hard to figure out an end game, because they can't keep the arguments straight on why we are implementing them to start.  Maybe @shecky can tell us how to square these arguments.  He's all in on the Trump admin so I'm sure he has considered these policies deeply.  
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,437
    It's because none of it makes sense because he's an idiot. He sees a trade deficit as us losing money lol, and he has held the belief that tariffs are a net-positive for like 40 years lol

    He's just a moron and with really dumb and close minded beliefs. And somehow, because of how dumb we are collectively as a people lol, is making very important decisions.
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 43,451

    Microsoft drops a law firm that appeased Trump, hires firm that’s fighting Trump
    Law firms that struck deals with the White House thought it’d protect their bottom line. What if their assumptions were wrong?
    May 1, 2025, 1:02 PM EDT

    By Steve Benen

    When Donald Trump launched an unprecedented offensive against prominent law firms, the businesses faced a difficult decision. If they appeased the president, they’d (theoretically) avoid White House punishments — penalties that the firms’ clients might have a problem with — but their reputations would suffer.

    If, on the other hand, they fought back against Trump’s authoritarian-style assault, they’d preserve their credibility but risk defeats in court and potentially would lose clients that want legal representation with intact security clearances.

    continues......
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  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 43,451


    List of Companies Laying Off Employees in May
    Published May 01, 2025 at 3:00 AM EDT
    Updated May 01, 2025 at 5:51 PM EDT
    CLOSE X
    Current Time 0:02
    /
    Duration 0:23
    Â
    By Suzanne Blake
    Reporter, Consumer & Social Trends
    Trust Project Icon Newsweek Is A Trust Project Member
    Many companies have already pre-announced their layoffs for May, and employees across several industries will be impacted.

    Companies are required to send out a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act (WARN) notice before implementing mass layoffs. More than 120 employers are planning to let workers go in May, according to WARNTracker.com.
    Why It Matters

    Companies are facing rising costs and shifting consumer demand, causing many to evoke mass layoffs across departments.

    However, some of the other layoffs are happening as corporations seek to maximize profits rather than necessity, and the trend is happening across industries, experts say.


    continues.....
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    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 43,451
    can guarantee you that if asked, these folks simply did not understand what they were signing.
    The Flex Loan, a new type of payday loan pioneered by Advance Financial in Tennessee, allows residents to borrow up to $4,000 at a 279.5% interest rate.

    It has burdened low-income borrowers while generating huge profits for lenders.

    Read the full story (with Tennessee Lookout): https://propub.li/451XaTf

    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,943
    mickeyrat said:
    can guarantee you that if asked, these folks simply did not understand what they were signing.
    The Flex Loan, a new type of payday loan pioneered by Advance Financial in Tennessee, allows residents to borrow up to $4,000 at a 279.5% interest rate.

    It has burdened low-income borrowers while generating huge profits for lenders.

    Read the full story (with Tennessee Lookout): https://propub.li/451XaTf

    I haven't read this yet but on memory a law was passed just for this reason.  Payday loans couldn't be abused to this level.  I will have to see who signed what or maybe this article explains it.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,600
    mickeyrat said:
    can guarantee you that if asked, these folks simply did not understand what they were signing.
    The Flex Loan, a new type of payday loan pioneered by Advance Financial in Tennessee, allows residents to borrow up to $4,000 at a 279.5% interest rate.

    It has burdened low-income borrowers while generating huge profits for lenders.

    Read the full story (with Tennessee Lookout): https://propub.li/451XaTf

    I haven't read this yet but on memory a law was passed just for this reason.  Payday loans couldn't be abused to this level.  I will have to see who signed what or maybe this article explains it.
    But the enforcement mechanism is the CFPB who have currently been ordered to start no new investigations. 


    However the CFPB is partially responsible for these type of loans. They created so many restrictions to subprime lending that the real banks exited the market. And the payday lenders popped up and are too numerous to regulate. Someone is going to fill the need for credit. 
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,943
    mrussel1 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    can guarantee you that if asked, these folks simply did not understand what they were signing.
    The Flex Loan, a new type of payday loan pioneered by Advance Financial in Tennessee, allows residents to borrow up to $4,000 at a 279.5% interest rate.

    It has burdened low-income borrowers while generating huge profits for lenders.

    Read the full story (with Tennessee Lookout): https://propub.li/451XaTf

    I haven't read this yet but on memory a law was passed just for this reason.  Payday loans couldn't be abused to this level.  I will have to see who signed what or maybe this article explains it.
    But the enforcement mechanism is the CFPB who have currently been ordered to start no new investigations. 


    However the CFPB is partially responsible for these type of loans. They created so many restrictions to subprime lending that the real banks exited the market. And the payday lenders popped up and are too numerous to regulate. Someone is going to fill the need for credit. 
    OK I read the article. Did some digging so I knew when what was passed and laxed. The payday loan law that Obama had put in got rolled back during Trumps first term in office.  Makes sense.

    CFPB is an enforcement but when the legislation lets the Loan sharks do as they will you can't enforce it, new legislation needs to be made.

    This is literally predatory lending.  The mortgage arm loans come to mind when reading this or the old college loans.

    Bad look and if you need money and actually make payments only to be worse off than you originally were? That type of business model should be shut down.
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 43,451
    decided to put this here....

    President Trump has been upending the global economy in the name of bringing manufacturing back. President Joe Biden signed into law massive investments aimed at doing something similar. The American manufacturing sector is reviving after decades of decay. But there's something a bit weird undercutting this movement to reshore factory jobs: American manufacturers say they are struggling to fill the jobs they already have. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are nearly half a million open manufacturing jobs right now.
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    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 43,451
    Incalculable” Damage: How a “We Buy Ugly Houses” Franchise Left a Trail of Financial Wreckage Across Texas
    by Anjeanette Damon and Mollie Simon
    May 13, 2025, 5 a.m. EDT
    Change Appearance
    Republish
    Series: The Ugly Truth: Inside the “We Buy Ugly Houses” Company
    More in this series

    ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
    Reporting Highlights

        Lost Investments: People who invested with a Dallas HomeVestors franchise, once touted as the largest, accuse the owner of operating a scheme that cost them tens of millions of dollars.
        Red Flags: HomeVestors says its franchises follow best business practices. But investors say lax oversight allowed the “We Buy Ugly Houses” brand to be used to further the scheme.
        Company Responds: HomeVestors has denied responsibility for the franchisee’s actions, saying its franchises are independently operated. It has sued the franchise owner.

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    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 43,451
    US consumer sentiment slumps, households brace for inflation surge - https://www.reuters.com/business/us-single-family-housing-starts-building-permits-fell-april-2025-05-16/
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,943
    mickeyrat said:
    decided to put this here....

    President Trump has been upending the global economy in the name of bringing manufacturing back. President Joe Biden signed into law massive investments aimed at doing something similar. The American manufacturing sector is reviving after decades of decay. But there's something a bit weird undercutting this movement to reshore factory jobs: American manufacturers say they are struggling to fill the jobs they already have. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are nearly half a million open manufacturing jobs right now.
    I wanted to comment on this. Great article with a bunch of layers.

    So our manufacturing can not fill jobs for a few reasons.  We cant pay well enough and the positions needing to be filled require experience workers that we do not have.  They said forklift operators.  Hell I'll drive a forklift for 6 figures a year with Bennys. Sign me up!  They also mention that factory workers need degrees for certain positions. It didn't delve too far into that but I have an idea of programming is needed? Just my hunch.
    More on the pay.  Factories don't want to pay for their labor so they offer lower wages and then act shocked when they can't fill that position. Then we want everything lower costs so one way to combat that is to higher cheap labor.
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 43,451
    Dollar set for more weakness as 'Brand USA' falls further out of favor - https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-set-more-weakness-brand-usa-falls-further-out-favor-2025-05-19/
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • josevolutionjosevolution Posts: 30,919
    mickeyrat said:
    decided to put this here....

    President Trump has been upending the global economy in the name of bringing manufacturing back. President Joe Biden signed into law massive investments aimed at doing something similar. The American manufacturing sector is reviving after decades of decay. But there's something a bit weird undercutting this movement to reshore factory jobs: American manufacturers say they are struggling to fill the jobs they already have. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are nearly half a million open manufacturing jobs right now.
    I wanted to comment on this. Great article with a bunch of layers.

    So our manufacturing can not fill jobs for a few reasons.  We cant pay well enough and the positions needing to be filled require experience workers that we do not have.  They said forklift operators.  Hell I'll drive a forklift for 6 figures a year with Bennys. Sign me up!  They also mention that factory workers need degrees for certain positions. It didn't delve too far into that but I have an idea of programming is needed? Just my hunch.
    More on the pay.  Factories don't want to pay for their labor so they offer lower wages and then act shocked when they can't fill that position. Then we want everything lower costs so one way to combat that is to higher cheap labor.
    All true points but this administration believes that these jobs can be filled by the Joe’s or Johns of the nation for 8$ an hour good luck 
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,943
    mickeyrat said:
    Dollar set for more weakness as 'Brand USA' falls further out of favor - https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-set-more-weakness-brand-usa-falls-further-out-favor-2025-05-19/
    I'm not sold on this.  The US spends a ton of cash and other countries know that we consume.  As long as we keep spending the dollar won't falter.  If the tariffs kick in and cost us to purchase less then I would have concern but that's not happening as of yet.

    The dollar is a beast still.  Other countries have been trying to downgrade it and have a different universal money but it hasn't worked.

    Will that last forever?  No, but as for now I don't see it happening.
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 43,451
    edited May 20
    mickeyrat said:
    Dollar set for more weakness as 'Brand USA' falls further out of favor - https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-set-more-weakness-brand-usa-falls-further-out-favor-2025-05-19/
    I'm not sold on this.  The US spends a ton of cash and other countries know that we consume.  As long as we keep spending the dollar won't falter.  If the tariffs kick in and cost us to purchase less then I would have concern but that's not happening as of yet.

    The dollar is a beast still.  Other countries have been trying to downgrade it and have a different universal money but it hasn't worked.

    Will that last forever?  No, but as for now I don't see it happening.

    bond holder fire sale would surely weaken it. isnt that why moodys downgraded our rating?
    Post edited by mickeyrat on
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    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,437
    T bonds have been downgraded 3 times in less than 15 years, twice in the last two. I'd call that a lot.
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,943
    T bonds have been downgraded 3 times in less than 15 years, twice in the last two. I'd call that a lot.
    Lower interest rates will cause the sell off.  Maybe they see that happening.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,600
    There’s lots of curious financial moves happening. Just because we clawed back doesn’t make me feel better. I think q3 data will be tough. I missed the window to sell two months ago but still seriously thinking of liquidating and paying taxes on it. Sit out a a year. 
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,437
    T bonds have been downgraded 3 times in less than 15 years, twice in the last two. I'd call that a lot.
    Lower interest rates will cause the sell off.  Maybe they see that happening.
    Interest rates rise with downgrades
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,943
    T bonds have been downgraded 3 times in less than 15 years, twice in the last two. I'd call that a lot.
    Lower interest rates will cause the sell off.  Maybe they see that happening.
    Interest rates rise with downgrades
    Theyve been talking about lowering interest rates.  They aren't raising them any time soon.
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,437
    T bonds have been downgraded 3 times in less than 15 years, twice in the last two. I'd call that a lot.
    Lower interest rates will cause the sell off.  Maybe they see that happening.
    Interest rates rise with downgrades
    Theyve been talking about lowering interest rates.  They aren't raising them any time soon.
    Who lol who is talking? 

    What's on the horizon is stagflation lol

    You can wish in one hand and shit in the other and see which one fills up quicker.
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 43,451
    T bonds have been downgraded 3 times in less than 15 years, twice in the last two. I'd call that a lot.
    Lower interest rates will cause the sell off.  Maybe they see that happening.
    Interest rates rise with downgrades
    Theyve been talking about lowering interest rates.  They aren't raising them any time soon.

    were talking, started doing. thats paused at least....
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Get_RightGet_Right Posts: 13,886
    China is subsidizing the tariffs for most exporters. Most people do not understand that non market, communist economy and what is really happening.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,600
    Get_Right said:
    China is subsidizing the tariffs for most exporters. Most people do not understand that non market, communist economy and what is really happening.
    I think most people know China is neither communist or free market. 


  • Get_RightGet_Right Posts: 13,886
    mrussel1 said:
    Get_Right said:
    China is subsidizing the tariffs for most exporters. Most people do not understand that non market, communist economy and what is really happening.
    I think most people know China is neither communist or free market. 



    Maybe you have not seen the military line up in a Chinese town square. Very much communist. Unless you have only been to Beijing or Shanghai. They hide behind mirrors in those cities. It is very much a military state.
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 40,959
    mrussel1 said:
    Get_Right said:
    China is subsidizing the tariffs for most exporters. Most people do not understand that non market, communist economy and what is really happening.
    I think most people know China is neither communist or free market. 


    Most people outside of ‘Murica.
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