mickeyrat said:

The Juggler said:

At least he'd get interest rates down this way...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/09/donald-trump-policies-tip-us-into-recession/

America’s economy ‘risks massive Trump slump’

US GDP could contract by as much as two to three percentage points, according to NIESR

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Trump’s policies threaten to reverse his promises to boost the economy and tackle high living costs Credit: Brian Snyder/Reuters

Donald Trump risks tipping the US into recession if he follows through with the promises made on the campaign trail, a top economist has warned.

Paul Mortimer-Lee of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the “ill-considered, rushed and damaging” combination of tariffs, the mass expulsion of illegal immigrants, tax cuts and spending efficiencies was “likely to tip the US economy into recession.”

Mr Mortimer-Lee said: “In a worst-case scenario, where immigrant expulsions are massive, tariff increases hit straight away and retaliation is swift and effective, GDP could contract by two to three percentage points.”

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Such an outcome would mark a massive slump when compared to the strong growth enjoyed by the US this year. NIESR estimates America’s economy will expand by 2.8pc in 2024.

It would also represent a significant challenge to Mr Trump who ran much of his campaign on a promise to boost the economy and tackle the cost of living crisis that many citizens blamed on President Joe Biden.

A recession in the world’s largest economy would send shockwaves across the globe, with China, Mexico, Canada and Germany all likely to struggle given their deep economic links to the US.

Mr Trump campaigned on a promise to impose steep tariffs on imports, including of up to 60pc on China, to tighten the US’s borders and cut taxes while slashing government spending. He has stepped up his rhetoric around tariffs since his election victory last month and appointed Elon Musk to the newly created Department of Government Efficiency. The billionaire has said he hopes to cut $2 trillion of spending.

Mr Mortimer-Lee said Mr Trump’s immigration policies would be the most damaging, given the important role this group plays in the US economy.

He said: “Expelling five million workers could reduce GDP by close to 2.5pc. Since expulsions would continue for years, the reduced rate of growth in GDP would be persistent – not a one-off shock like tariffs.”

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Shortages of workers, particularly in migrant-heavy industries such as agriculture, retail and construction, are likely to send wages spiralling and stoke inflation. Mr Mortimer-Lee also warned that tariffs would also stoke inflation.

The Federal Reserve would usually be expected to raise interest rates to try to rein in price rises but there is a risk that the future president could successfully pressure officials into keeping borrowing costs low.

“How large the eventual inflation effect and how long it lasts will depend on whether Mr Trump succeeds in bending the Federal Reserve to his will, which would mean a softer monetary policy stance,” Mr Mortimer-Lee said. “Contrary to the consensus, I take the view that he will be successful, so that the initial shocks to prices from his other policies will feed through to second and third-round effects.

“As a result, inflation could rise to 7pc or 8pc by 2027, especially if an economic downturn were met by an outsized money-financed fiscal deficit, which is a very real prospect.”

Mr Trump has suggested he wants the president to have a greater role in setting interest rates and there has been speculation that he could seek to sack Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.

However, the president-elect on Sunday said he did not plan to sack Mr Powell, telling NBC’s Meet the Press: “I don’t see it.” 

Mr Mortimer-Lee said foreign investors would be reluctant to lend to the US if the Fed’s independence were undermined, resulting in higher borrowing costs for the government.

“The possible outcomes include a funding crisis, pro-cyclical fiscal tightening, fiscal dominance of the Fed, and a dollar crisis,” he said.

could argue his supporters voted him in to run the country like his businesses...

say a casino?

Gern Blansten said:

hunterh75 said:

Gern Blansten said:

hunterh75 said:

Gern Blansten said:

More lies exposed on the fuckface in chief. I noticed that Macron was just slightly shorter than trump when they were together and he's 5'10". 

It seems like trump has abandoned his lifts that made him lean forward. What a fucking fake.

Name-calling removed by Admin. Review the Posting Guidelines stickied on Porch to preserve posting privileges.-Admin

Yeah and the things that you DON'T get tore up about...like rape, fraud, orange, fat, stupid, etc.

Orange, fat and stupid, lol. Are we back in grade school on the playground?  Carry on.........

again...you voted for a guy that belittles everyone. Childish name calling, repeating false shit over and over....give your outrage a rest and man up

HughFreakingDillon said:

DarthMaeglin said:

Gern Blansten said:

I saw trump's insult to Trudeau last night....what a fucking douche. I wonder if JT regrets visiting that piece of shit at maralago

Humour is dead, clearly. It’s a bad joke, nothing more, nothing less.

Alternately, should Canadians feel secure with a man who has said he doesn’t trouble himself thinking about monetary policy trying to negotiate with Trump?

Humour is not dead, but respect and dignity of official heads of state is. You just don't make a "joke" like that. It's demeaning. 

DarthMaeglin said:

Gern Blansten said:

I guess it could be revenge for JT being on video at that summit telling others how stupid trump is....lol

Precisely, pot meet kettle.