With less than 14 days or two weeks until election day, I reluctantly post why I believe POOTWH will win the election. None of my reasons are sole determining factors but taken together as a collective, its too much for Kamala and the dems to overcome. In a nutshell, its death by a thousand cuts, cuts of peeling away just a slight percentage of a chosen demographic in a few key districts in a few key states. Again, any one of which wouldn’t be fatal but taken together as a whole give POOTWH the electoral college and not the popular vote. I’m posting this in this thread because I believe it will result in the end of this uniquely American experiment. I think we’re headed into some very dark times, regardless, but especially when the revenge tour begins and Project 2025 is implemented.

I hope I’m wrong, I really do. I meditate to turtle that I’m wrong and hope to be proven so. In no particular order:

1. Israel

POOTWH will garner enough of the Jewish vote in PA, MI and AZ to aid in his winning those states’ electoral votes. While the Jewish vote makes up approximately 5% of the electorate and overwhelmingly identify with the dems, there are enough Orthodox/Hasidic Bibi supporters and previously dems who will vote POOTWH out of support for Bibi and not allowing a two-state solution and/or in the belief that Kamala will abandon Israel and side with the Palestinians. They’ll help make a difference in PA, MI and AZ, keeping those from going blue and keeping Flo Rida red. 1-3% additional Jewish voters vote POOTWH.

2. Palestine

Kamala will or has already lost 1-2% of dems and a sizable portion of the Muslim vote, particularly in MI, over Brandon’s unlimited support for Israel, despite the atrocities. The loss of the Muslim vote will be telling as they either stay home, vote third party or vote POOTWH because they identify more closely with authoritarian rule and figure POOTWH can’t be worse than Brandon with his treatment of Palestinians. Kamala will be seen as having sided with Israel and was not forceful or influential enough to reduce the carnage. This will help MI, WI, AZ and NV turn red and NC stay red. It may also flip MN to red as well.

3. Surburban Women Voters

Abortion is not the primary concern to suburban women voters. Rather its economics, household budget, and crime, or the perception thereof. As a result, they won’t vote for Kamala in substantially large enough numbers to make up for the other electoral losses that Kamala will face. Also, suburban women are also more likely to vote their religion and vote in general. Poorer, middle class and lower, middle-class women will not turn out at a high enough rate to make up the difference, particularly in fly over country of the swing states. Faux News has a lot of suburban women voters watching and they’ll vote their checkbook and security. Expect POOTWH to gain 3-5% with these voters over 2020 vote totals.

4. The Billionaire Class

This will be one of the biggest factors that will determine the outcome as billionaires “don’t lose.” They are heavily invested in POOTWH and his potential tax, economic, administrative and social policies. What do you do for fun when you have 5 or 6 houses on 4 continents, a luxury yacht or two, a private jet and more money than you can ever spend? You buy influence to remake society and business, that benefits you personally, and cos play being God. Elongitaint’s twatter pushing mis and dis-information, $100s of millions in dark money to buy field work and advertising, giving away a million dollars a day to influence voters and nothing is stopping any of it. ‘Muricans should be outraged and embarrassed but they are not. They defend it. Add in Rupert Murdick, Adelson, Steve Wynn-Loss, Perlbutter, Mellonhead and former SBA head and WWF mogul McMahon and you have enough money to purchase the legit side of politics but also the dirty trickster side of politics (think Roger Dodger Stoned). Also, consider the cumulative effect of these folks funding the right-wing policy promoters and conservative colleges and universities to lay the groundwork for judicial nominees and things like Project 2025. Its too much to overcome with record amounts of small donor donations. Faux News and Murdicks other media outlets alone have rotted enough brains over the past 35 years or so. And yes, dems raise tons of sums from billionaires but the difference is that they are not looking for something in return, other than a cushy ambassadorship for the honor, prestige and foreign living experience.

5. Election Fuckery

All of that money above can fund election fuckery in the form of court challenges, recounts, intimidation, passing of laws to stifle turnout and votes, voting roll purges, the misinformation that elections aren’t safe and have been stolen, dirty tricks leading up to and including election day, etc. This will have a nominal effect, but it will be in states to ensure they stay red, Flo Rida and Tejas, as do their congressional delegations and in certain districts, precincts that will influence, ever so slightly, the result in swing states, particularly AZ, NV, PA, MI, WI, GA and NC. We are already experiencing it and again, there’s no general outcry nor consequences. Billionaires “don’t lose.”

6. Social Media and Putin on the Ritz

The influence of social media to change opinions and influence votes cannot be understated. It is insidious and anyone who has any presence on any social media, including this one, is susceptible to mis and dis-information. Putin on the ritz and his troll farms are in overtime mode and with the AI, their mis-messaging will have even more of an influence, particularly among microcosms of voting demographics. It’ll be directed at rural voters, particularly in swing states and suburban women (think Faceturd), Jews, Muslims and undecideds or less frequent voters. Those without higher levels of education will be more easily influenced with messages tailor made for their niche of the electorate. Putin on the ritz has every reason to see POOTWH elected and will view this time around as a major “foreign war victory” without firing a shot or having a direct confrontation with the US military. The Russia, Russia, Russia hoax is real and will lead to the eventual downfall of the US beginning with this election.

7. Misinformed, Undereducated and Memory Lapsed

See above. From grandpa and grandma to the 18–24-year-olds and everyone in-between, this is a real issue as a result of the erosion of critical thinking skills. We see it all the time, even on these boards (today 10-23-2024), where people will parrot right wing media points that have no basis in fact. Or they’ll share their Faceturd feed of agit-prop and consider it the truth. If not, they’ll question it and try to look smart by saying they’re “just asking questions” or “doing their own research,” a la tech or Joe bros. The truth and facts have never been grayer and unfortunately, we see the results in “they’re eating the cats, they’re eating the dogs, they’re eating the pets of the people that live there” and folks threatening FEMA aid workers in hurricane ravaged areas. ‘Murica has gotten much dumber due to the constant sources of misinformation, dis-information, and outright falsehoods. I seen it on the tv/interwebs/podcast/serial/billionaire funded feature length documentary (10,000 Mules, anyone?) so it must be true. This will result in 1-4% points of the youth vote and the same in the 65+ age bracket, which may have more of an impact due to higher turnout rates among the 65+ over the 18-24 demographic, moving to POOTWH or staying home, resulting in a decrease in total % for Kamala, because they’re believing the shit information or they’re afraid of the “other.” A significant percentage of the ‘Murican voting block has a very short-term memory and as a result will collectively forget all of the transgressions that POOTWH committed over the past 10 years but remember Obama’s missing lapel flag pin or tan suit or that Kamala wears the same earrings every day. The flood of cray-cray is dismissed as a result and is ineffectual.

8. Youth Vote (18-24)

One of the most consistently unreliable voter demographics. Because of the above and the voter suppression efforts, in addition to the hype that POOTWH is a strong man, survived an assassination attempt (think Ronny Rayguns standing at the hospital window) and has never “lost” (POOTWH has never admitted defeat and the election was stolen, remember?), they’ll give a “winner” (fight, fight, fight) POOTWH that 1-4% or Kamala will see 1-4% less votes from this demographic. If they have not mailed in a ballot or participated in early voting yet, you won’t see massive numbers on election day and if you do, they’re more likely to break for POOTWH. Apathy, misinformation, disinformation and life will get in the way.

9. Judiciary and Courts

I anticipate that any close vote totals in any precinct and in any of the swing states will result in court challenges, perhaps all the way to SCOTUS. Once there, it will be decided in POOTWH’s favor. The pressure on Kamala to concede will be immense. The amount of money and lawyers to argue before state/federal courts will pour in. Judge shopping will take place, and it will result in a period of chaos. Again, billionaires “don’t lose.” There will be court challenges to ballots and results, and they will have influence in key races, precincts and swing states.

10. Racism, Misogyny and Religion

A large and significant portion of the electorate is not ready, nor may they ever be, for a woman POTUS, particularly one of color and mixed race. This is evident in the total number of votes POOTWH received in 2020 and in a lack of erosion in his support despite all the batshit crazy, particularly racist and misogynist, things he’s uttered in the last few weeks and 9+ years. But its deeper than that as we have always known about his base and “very fine people on both sides.” This is due to evangelical women, and other religions’ voters deferring to their religious beliefs that a woman should be subservient to a man, a belief among men that woman are not strong, effective leaders and shouldn’t be in positions of power managing/overseeing men and fear of the “other.” Minorities and immigrants are responsible for crime, and they need to be locked up and/or deported. This is a widely held belief among middle and upper-middle class suburban and rural voters, pushed by the right wing and putin on the ritz. Suburban women will be bombarded with this messaging. Hispanics are overwhelmingly catholic and value their religion and family values, as well as having a “macho, strong man” at the helm. The abortion issue will break more toward Hispanics voting in larger percentages than in 2020 for POOTWH and the pro-life stance. Taking these three reasons together and you have another 1-5% of a demographic (Hispanic, religious, racist) that will pull the lever for POOTWH.

Conclusion

POOTWH wins the electoral college 305-233 for the combination of the 10 factors I listed (apparently the same outcome as 2016 when I did my interactive electoral college map and then looked what 2016 looked like), but loses the popular vote, and begins the revenge tour by making inflammatory and aggressive statements regarding revenge and going after his enemies, real and imagined, as soon as he hits 270. There will be no contriteness or being a good sport. The resulting 4 years will be a nightmare, particularly when JD Byryder is sworn in sometime in 2027. Eventually, this leads to the end of the American Republic and our unique experiment in democracy, E Pluribus Unum. Death by 1,000 cuts.

Again, I really hope I’m completely and totally wrong on this but I’m not liking how the wind is blowing and feeling. Shits going to get ugly. Good luck.