Official 2024 Ticket Lottery Results Thread
Comments
-
They used to publish the odds. 10% odds of landing GA is probably high for MSG, Philly and Baltimore.know1 said:
How do we know the chance was 10% at each show?Lerxst1992 said:SHZA said:
Everyone knows it's possible. But if the odds of it happening are 1 in 10 million, yet the actual results are 1 in 100, something is wrong.PJ and Dylan are my muse said:
This!RE4790 said:CurtisMartin said:Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt. Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing. Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show. It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.People are getting confused with lottery odds. If I have a ten percent chance to win a high demand show and win, I still have a ten percent chance of winning the next show.
but to win both, my odds are 1% (10%*10%)
We are seeing fans go four for four (ny and Balt one chance each, Philly two chances)
the odds of hitting all four assuming 10% odds are 10%*10%*10%*10% or 0.01%.
to see that happen multiple times is astounding. It’s possible but very very strange.0 -
Each GA drawing is independent. You have the same odds, as anyone else that put in a request, for each show's GA lottery. The amount of tickets may be different, but you have the same odds to get selected for one/two as anyone else that requested. Do we need to get the source code of the program and find out if there is not a random generation? Do we believe that somehow a computer picked the same person's random selection confirmation number purposefully over and over for GA each show? Come on folks.192xxx
6/26+27/98, 10/8/00 (IB), 6/21/03, 9/3+4/11 (PJ20) - East Troy
6/29/98, 10/9/00, 6/18/03, 5/16+17/06, 8/23+24/09, 8/20+22/16, 8/18+20/18, 8/29+31/24 - Chicago
6/6/03 - Las Vegas
10/5/04, 9/18/22 - St. Louis
6/29/06, 10/20/14 - Milwaukee
11/19/13 - Phoenix
4/26/16 - Lexington0 -
I think it would be high for most US showsSHZA said:
They used to publish the odds. 10% odds of landing GA is probably high for MSG, Philly and Baltimore.know1 said:
How do we know the chance was 10% at each show?Lerxst1992 said:SHZA said:
Everyone knows it's possible. But if the odds of it happening are 1 in 10 million, yet the actual results are 1 in 100, something is wrong.PJ and Dylan are my muse said:
This!RE4790 said:CurtisMartin said:Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt. Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing. Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show. It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.People are getting confused with lottery odds. If I have a ten percent chance to win a high demand show and win, I still have a ten percent chance of winning the next show.
but to win both, my odds are 1% (10%*10%)
We are seeing fans go four for four (ny and Balt one chance each, Philly two chances)
the odds of hitting all four assuming 10% odds are 10%*10%*10%*10% or 0.01%.
to see that happen multiple times is astounding. It’s possible but very very strange.0 -
It’s a guess, 10% for simplicity. In the past when they released odds, NY was around five percent and the other NE cities around 20%.know1 said:
How do we know the chance was 10% at each show?Lerxst1992 said:SHZA said:
Everyone knows it's possible. But if the odds of it happening are 1 in 10 million, yet the actual results are 1 in 100, something is wrong.PJ and Dylan are my muse said:
This!RE4790 said:CurtisMartin said:Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt. Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing. Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show. It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.People are getting confused with lottery odds. If I have a ten percent chance to win a high demand show and win, I still have a ten percent chance of winning the next show.
but to win both, my odds are 1% (10%*10%)
We are seeing fans go four for four (ny and Balt one chance each, Philly two chances)
the odds of hitting all four assuming 10% odds are 10%*10%*10%*10% or 0.01%.
to see that happen multiple times is astounding. It’s possible but very very strange.
Let’s say the odds were 20% for all NE shows except Boston. Sounds much better to win all four, right?
not really. Better, but still
20%*20%*20%*20% = 0.2%0 -
Lerxst1992 said:PJ and Dylan are my muse said:
This!RE4790 said:CurtisMartin said:Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt. Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing. Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show. It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.No, not this. Read how odds work for winning multiple draws, such as picking six numbers in the lottery. It’s absolutely not one in fifty, if there are fifty numbers in the lottery. If picking six numbers in six random draws, we would all be millionaires.
The chance of winning each draw is multiplied. If someone goes four for four in shows and each is ten percent, chances of winning all four is 10%*10%*10%*10%.
…
(The chance of winning can be demonstrated as follows: The first number drawn has a 1 in 49 chance of matching. When the draw comes to the second number, there are now only 48 balls left in the bag, because the balls are drawn without replacement. So there is now a 1 in 48 chance of predicting this number.Thus for each of the 49 ways of choosing the first number there are 48 different ways of choosing the second. This means that the probability of correctly predicting 2 numbers drawn from 49 in the correct order is calculated as 1 in 49 × 48. )
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_mathematics
Except that the shows are independent of each other. Winning one drawing doesn't exclude you from winning the next. It's random drawing WITH replacement.
"I'm a lucky man, to count on both hands the [shows I've done]. Some folks just have one, others they got none..."
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 | Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22 | Baltimore 09.12.24 | Fenway 1 09.15.24 | Fenway 2 09.17.24
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him.
He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."0 -
But it's a guess that COULD be way off the mark. So it's not helpful or indicative of anything.Lerxst1992 said:
It’s a guess, 10% for simplicity. In the past when they released odds, NY was around five percent and the other NE cities around 20%.know1 said:
How do we know the chance was 10% at each show?Lerxst1992 said:SHZA said:
Everyone knows it's possible. But if the odds of it happening are 1 in 10 million, yet the actual results are 1 in 100, something is wrong.PJ and Dylan are my muse said:
This!RE4790 said:CurtisMartin said:Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt. Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing. Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show. It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.People are getting confused with lottery odds. If I have a ten percent chance to win a high demand show and win, I still have a ten percent chance of winning the next show.
but to win both, my odds are 1% (10%*10%)
We are seeing fans go four for four (ny and Balt one chance each, Philly two chances)
the odds of hitting all four assuming 10% odds are 10%*10%*10%*10% or 0.01%.
to see that happen multiple times is astounding. It’s possible but very very strange.
Let’s say the odds were 20% for all NE shows except Boston. Sounds much better to win all four, right?
not really. Better, but still
20%*20%*20%*20% = 0.2%The only people we should try to get even with...
...are those who've helped us.
Right 'round the corner could be bigger than ourselves.0 -
Thanks for the clarification @steven87, surely @bf25394 will want to no remove your scenario and that of the person who split GA/Reserved in Vancouver. As it has been mentioned numerous times that Vancouver has been reporting true random drawing results.steven87 said:
Sorry I should’ve been more specific here and inadvertently created some confusion by combining the results from mine and my wife’s accounts.BF25394 said:
Here's another person who had a split GA/P1 result in a city.steven87 said:Finally getting around to posting my results:
Vancouver N1 and N2- P1 reserved
MSG N1- nothing
MSG N2- P2 reserved
Philly N1- P1 reserved
Philly N2- GA
Baltimore- P1 reserved
Feel very fortunate to have scored my first GA ever in a 10c lottery (in about 50 attempts). Now on to F2F to try to upgrade the rest!My account:
Vancouver N1 and N2- P1 reserved
MSG N1- nothing
MSG N2- P2 reserved
Philly N1 and N2- P1 reserved
Baltimore- P1 reserved
Wife’s account
MSG N1- nothing
MSG N2- nothing
Philly N2- GA
My wife only put in for Philly N2, not N1. I guess in retrospect she should’ve also put in for N1 cause it sounds like she probably would’ve won GA for that as well. Based on what I’ve seen on here and FB, it seems like a lot of people got the same result for both nights of a two-night stand- i.e., P1 or GA. If I had to venture a guess, it sounds like what may have happened here is that the lottery may have been run for each city, as opposed to each individual show. But ultimately who knows."A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory0 -
Nope. Just for the other show in the same city. Again, it isn't GA specific either, which makes the issue even more glaring.PJ and Dylan are my muse said:Each GA drawing is independent. You have the same odds, as anyone else that put in a request, for each show's GA lottery. The amount of tickets may be different, but you have the same odds to get selected for one/two as anyone else that requested. Do we need to get the source code of the program and find out if there is not a random generation? Do we believe that somehow a computer picked the same person's random selection confirmation number purposefully over and over for GA each show? Come on folks."A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory0 -
🤦🏻know1 said:
But it's a guess that COULD be way off the mark. So it's not helpful or indicative of anything.Lerxst1992 said:
It’s a guess, 10% for simplicity. In the past when they released odds, NY was around five percent and the other NE cities around 20%.know1 said:
How do we know the chance was 10% at each show?Lerxst1992 said:SHZA said:
Everyone knows it's possible. But if the odds of it happening are 1 in 10 million, yet the actual results are 1 in 100, something is wrong.PJ and Dylan are my muse said:
This!RE4790 said:CurtisMartin said:Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt. Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing. Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show. It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.People are getting confused with lottery odds. If I have a ten percent chance to win a high demand show and win, I still have a ten percent chance of winning the next show.
but to win both, my odds are 1% (10%*10%)
We are seeing fans go four for four (ny and Balt one chance each, Philly two chances)
the odds of hitting all four assuming 10% odds are 10%*10%*10%*10% or 0.01%.
to see that happen multiple times is astounding. It’s possible but very very strange.
Let’s say the odds were 20% for all NE shows except Boston. Sounds much better to win all four, right?
not really. Better, but still
20%*20%*20%*20% = 0.2%0 -
And Van was done by a separate Canada entrydarwinstheory said:
Thanks for the clarification @steven87, surely @bf25394 will want to no remove your scenario and that of the person who split GA/Reserved in Vancouver. As it has been mentioned numerous times that Vancouver has been reporting true random drawing results.steven87 said:
Sorry I should’ve been more specific here and inadvertently created some confusion by combining the results from mine and my wife’s accounts.BF25394 said:
Here's another person who had a split GA/P1 result in a city.steven87 said:Finally getting around to posting my results:
Vancouver N1 and N2- P1 reserved
MSG N1- nothing
MSG N2- P2 reserved
Philly N1- P1 reserved
Philly N2- GA
Baltimore- P1 reserved
Feel very fortunate to have scored my first GA ever in a 10c lottery (in about 50 attempts). Now on to F2F to try to upgrade the rest!My account:
Vancouver N1 and N2- P1 reserved
MSG N1- nothing
MSG N2- P2 reserved
Philly N1 and N2- P1 reserved
Baltimore- P1 reserved
Wife’s account
MSG N1- nothing
MSG N2- nothing
Philly N2- GA
My wife only put in for Philly N2, not N1. I guess in retrospect she should’ve also put in for N1 cause it sounds like she probably would’ve won GA for that as well. Based on what I’ve seen on here and FB, it seems like a lot of people got the same result for both nights of a two-night stand- i.e., P1 or GA. If I had to venture a guess, it sounds like what may have happened here is that the lottery may have been run for each city, as opposed to each individual show. But ultimately who knows.0 -
Yes, I got Wrigley night 1 confirmation email today, and cc has been charged.High Fidelity 2000 said:Has anybody actually gotten an email today? I figured if nothing yesterday then we're probably just screwed and waiting to be told we're screwed.0 -
Anyone get LV confirmation/denial today?0
-
So many variables unaccounted for...you can't speculate math without knowing the numbers.Lerxst1992 said:SHZA said:
Everyone knows it's possible. But if the odds of it happening are 1 in 10 million, yet the actual results are 1 in 100, something is wrong.PJ and Dylan are my muse said:
This!RE4790 said:CurtisMartin said:Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt. Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing. Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show. It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.People are getting confused with lottery odds. If I have a ten percent chance to win a high demand show and win, I still have a ten percent chance of winning the next show.
but to win both, my odds are 1% (10%*10%)
We are seeing fans go four for four (ny and Balt one chance each, Philly two chances)
the odds of hitting all four assuming 10% odds are 10%*10%*10%*10% or 0.01%.
to see that happen multiple times is astounding. It’s possible but very very strange.
We don't know how many seats at each venue are available.
We don't know how many people requested for each show.
We don't know the breakdown on 1 seat request VS 2 seat request
We don't know who checked what boxes in seat selection.
If 10c felt like sharing some of this - I bet people would not have to wonder why they lost.
Vancouver for example, maybe it didn't even use all of the 10c tickets. So effectively if less seats are requested then seats available your odds are 100% not 10%.
Moving to Philly, check all possible seats my odds of winning the Philly show are the same as everyone else who checked all possible boxes AND also had a single request. However, my odds are higher then the guy who only checked GA/P1 and needs 2 seats because I am open to other seats and only need 1...Rows at stadiums tend to be odd numbers so there always end up a significant number of single seats available.
To evaluate properly the people losing regularly need to identify the boxes they checked, how many seats requested, and what shows.
I lost Philly N1 - I only selected GA/P1 for a Single seat - Not mad about losing, I expected to.
Post edited by jimjam1982 on0 -
I was thinking that they picked by city and not by show like they were supposed to.darwinstheory said:
Nope. Just for the other show in the same city. Again, it isn't GA specific either, which makes the issue even more glaring.PJ and Dylan are my muse said:Each GA drawing is independent. You have the same odds, as anyone else that put in a request, for each show's GA lottery. The amount of tickets may be different, but you have the same odds to get selected for one/two as anyone else that requested. Do we need to get the source code of the program and find out if there is not a random generation? Do we believe that somehow a computer picked the same person's random selection confirmation number purposefully over and over for GA each show? Come on folks.
0 -
PJ and Dylan are my muse said:Each GA drawing is independent. You have the same odds, as anyone else that put in a request, for each show's GA lottery. The amount of tickets may be different, but you have the same odds to get selected for one/two as anyone else that requested. Do we need to get the source code of the program and find out if there is not a random generation? Do we believe that somehow a computer picked the same person's random selection confirmation number purposefully over and over for GA each show? Come on folks.The odds to land *all four* is what is being discussed. Fans are winning Philly twice and ny and Balt. The odds are calculated same as how any lottery is picked. If the lottery is picking one in fifty (with replacement) five times, the odds are 50*50*50*50*50 (one in millions, for the lottery). If it were one in fifty to hit all five we’d all be millionaires, because we’d never stop playing and one in fifty is very doable.
As far as “cmon folks,” let’s look no further when they made a simple error in 2023 assigning seats and had to do a redraw. It happens. That’s not saying that’s happening here, but if we were say five members go four for four hitting those difficult to win cities (historically), the odds are way below 0.1% of that happening.0 -
know1 said:
My point exactly. And never mind we don't even know how they conducted the lottery either. So it's all pointless conversation driven by misinformation and assumptions that is serving to get people irritated.High Fidelity 2000 said:
Nobody knows and these math games ya'll are arguing about are pretty silly. lolknow1 said:
How do we know the chance was 10% at each show?Lerxst1992 said:SHZA said:
Everyone knows it's possible. But if the odds of it happening are 1 in 10 million, yet the actual results are 1 in 100, something is wrong.PJ and Dylan are my muse said:
This!RE4790 said:CurtisMartin said:Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt. Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing. Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show. It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.People are getting confused with lottery odds. If I have a ten percent chance to win a high demand show and win, I still have a ten percent chance of winning the next show.
but to win both, my odds are 1% (10%*10%)
We are seeing fans go four for four (ny and Balt one chance each, Philly two chances)
the odds of hitting all four assuming 10% odds are 10%*10%*10%*10% or 0.01%.
to see that happen multiple times is astounding. It’s possible but very very strange.
Real easy way to fix this. 10C & TM can be more transparent about # of tix available, # of 10C registering, etc....0 -
If 4 independent events each have a 10% probability, the likelihood of all 4 events happening is 0.1^4.PJ and Dylan are my muse said:Each GA drawing is independent. You have the same odds, as anyone else that put in a request, for each show's GA lottery. The amount of tickets may be different, but you have the same odds to get selected for one/two as anyone else that requested. Do we need to get the source code of the program and find out if there is not a random generation? Do we believe that somehow a computer picked the same person's random selection confirmation number purposefully over and over for GA each show? Come on folks.0 -
This is hypothetical. All odds are not the same for every show. So using this as a barometer for why someone didn't win is just going to make people upset.NewfieintheUSA said:
If 4 independent events each have a 10% probability, the likelihood of all 4 events happening is 0.1^4.PJ and Dylan are my muse said:Each GA drawing is independent. You have the same odds, as anyone else that put in a request, for each show's GA lottery. The amount of tickets may be different, but you have the same odds to get selected for one/two as anyone else that requested. Do we need to get the source code of the program and find out if there is not a random generation? Do we believe that somehow a computer picked the same person's random selection confirmation number purposefully over and over for GA each show? Come on folks.0 -
Exactly! Ticketmaster US did not conduct the lottery as Vancouver did. And Vancouver did it correctly.GlowGirl said:
I was thinking that they picked by city and not by show like they were supposed to.darwinstheory said:
Nope. Just for the other show in the same city. Again, it isn't GA specific either, which makes the issue even more glaring.PJ and Dylan are my muse said:Each GA drawing is independent. You have the same odds, as anyone else that put in a request, for each show's GA lottery. The amount of tickets may be different, but you have the same odds to get selected for one/two as anyone else that requested. Do we need to get the source code of the program and find out if there is not a random generation? Do we believe that somehow a computer picked the same person's random selection confirmation number purposefully over and over for GA each show? Come on folks.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist as others seem to suggest. I struck out on both Vancouver shows."A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory0
Categories
- All Categories
- 148.9K Pearl Jam's Music and Activism
- 110.1K The Porch
- 274 Vitalogy
- 35K Given To Fly (live)
- 3.5K Words and Music...Communication
- 39.2K Flea Market
- 39.2K Lost Dogs
- 58.7K Not Pearl Jam's Music
- 10.6K Musicians and Gearheads
- 29.1K Other Music
- 17.8K Poetry, Prose, Music & Art
- 1.1K The Art Wall
- 56.8K Non-Pearl Jam Discussion
- 22.2K A Moving Train
- 31.7K All Encompassing Trip
- 2.9K Technical Stuff and Help