Capitalism, The Fed and Economic Policy
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Thought it was interest rates, whoops.The Juggler said:
What does that have to with the bond market?tempo_n_groove said:
New year is coming and companies are ready to spend.The Juggler said:And the bond is down too. Rates are decreasing...for the moment at least.
So. About the rates.
Public sector is heating up whereas Private is not. This is for construction right now. That is a good barometer for how rates will be for a bit.0 -
More good news.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/pce-inflation-report-october-2023-.htmlECONOMYFed’s favorite gauge shows inflation rose 0.2% in October and 3.5% from a year ago, as expected
PUBLISHED THU, NOV 30 20238:36 AM ESTUPDATED MOMENTS AGOSHAREShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email
WATCH NOWVIDEO05:36Fed’s favorite gauge shows inflation rose 0.2% in October and 3.5% from a year ago, as expectedInflation as measured by personal spending increased in line with expectations in October, possibly giving the Federal Reserve more incentive to hold rates steady and perhaps start cutting in 2024, according to a data release Thursday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, the Commerce Department reported. Both numbers aligned with the Dow Jones consensus.
Headline inflation was flat on the month and at a 3% rate for the 12-month period, the release also showed. Energy prices fell 2.6% on the month, helping keep overall inflation in check, even as food prices increased 0.2%.
Goods prices saw a 0.3% decrease while services rose 0.2%. On the services side, the biggest gainers were international travel, health care and food services and accommodations. In goods, gasoline led the gainers.
Personal income and spending both rose 0.2% on the month, also meeting estimates and indicating that consumers are keeping pace with inflation.
While the public more closely watches the Labor Department’s consumer price index as an inflation measure, the Fed prefers the core PCE reading. The former measure primarily looks at what goods and services cost, while the latter focuses on what people actually spend, adjusting for consumer behavior when prices fluctuate.
In other economic news Thursday, initial weekly jobless claims rose to 218,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous period though slightly below the 220,000 estimate. However, continuing claims, which run a week behind, surged to 1.93 million, an increase of 86,000 and the highest level since Nov. 27, 2021, the Labor Department said.
“The Fed is on hold for now but their pivot to rate cuts is getting closer,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Inflation is clearly slowing, and the job market is softening faster than expected.”
Markets already had been pricing in the likelihood that the Fed is done raising interest rates this cycle, and the PCE reading, along with signs of a loosening labor market, could solidify that stance. Along with the anticipation that the rate hikes are over, markets also are pricing in the equivalent of five quarter percentage point rate cuts in 2024.
New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday that he expects inflation to continue to drift lower, finally hitting the Fed’s 2% target in 2025. However, he said policymakers will need to stay vigilant and keep rates at a “restrictive” level.
“My assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate,” he said in prepared remarks for a speech in New York. “I expect it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some me to fully restore balance and to bring inflation back to our 2 percent longer-run goal on a sustained basis.”
The fed funds rate, the central bank’s benchmark level for short-term lending, is targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%, its highest in more than 22 years. After implementing 11 hikes since March 2022, the Fed skipped its last two meetings, and most policymakers of late have been indicating that they are content now to watch the impact of the previous increases work their way through the economy.
Other economic signals lately have shown the economy to be in fairly good shape, though several Fed officials recently have said the data doesn’t square with comments they are hearing on the ground.
“I’m hearing consumers slowing down,” Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Wednesday at the CNBC CFO Council Summit. “I’m not hearing [the] consumer falling off the table. I’m hearing normalizing, not recession, but I am hearing consumer slowing down.”
The Fed’s inflation report comes the same day as encouraging news from the euro zone.
Headline inflation there fell to 2.4% on a 12-month basis, though core, which excludes food, energy and tobacco, was still at 3.6%. Like the Fed, the European Central Bank targets 2% as a healthy inflation level.
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10 year inching closer and closer to dropping below 4%. Fed may have actually walked that tight rope to perfection and avoided a recession, though not out of the woods yet.
We're already helping folks who purchased earlier this year to streamline down to a lower rate...giggity
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2023.htmlFed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024
PUBLISHED WED, DEC 13 20232:00 PM ESTUPDATED 43 MIN AGOSHAREShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email
WATCH NOWVIDEO05:02Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond.
With the inflation rate easing and the economy holding in, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That’s less than market pricing of four, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated.
Markets had widely anticipated the decision to stay put, which could end a cycle that has seen 11 hikes, pushing the fed funds rate to its highest level in more than 22 years. There was uncertainty, though, about how ambitious the FOMC might be regarding policy easing. Following the release of the decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 400 points, surpassing 37,000 for the first time.
The committee’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates another four cuts in 2025, or a full percentage point. Three more reductions in 2026 would take the fed funds rate down to between 2%-2.25%, close to the long-run outlook, though there was considerable dispersion in the estimates for the final two years.
In a possible nod that hikes are over, the statement said that the committee would take multiple factors into account for “any” more policy tightening, a word that had not appeared previously.
Along with the interest rate hikes, the Fed has been allowing up to $95 billion a month in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off its balance sheet. That process has continued, and there has been no indication the Fed is willing to curtail that portion of policy tightening.
Inflation ‘eased over the past year’
The developments come amid a brightening picture for inflation that had spiked to a 40-year high in mid-2022.
“Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That’s very good news,” Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference.
That echoed new language in the post-meeting statement. The committee added the qualifier that inflation has “eased over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as “elevated.” Fed officials see core inflation falling to 3.2% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024, then to 2.2% in 2025. Finally, it gets back to the 2% target in 2026.
Economic data released this week showed both consumer and wholesale prices were little changed in November. By some measures, though, the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target. Bank of America’s calculations indicate that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be around 3.1% year over year in November, and actually could hit a 2% six-month annualized rate, meeting the central bank’s goal.
The statement also noted that the economy “has slowed,” after saying in November that activity had “expanded at a strong pace.”
In the news conference, Powell said: “Recent indicators suggest that growth in economic activity has slowed substantially from the outsized pace seen in the third quarter. Even so, GDP is on track to expand around 2.5% for the year as a whole.”
Committee members upgraded gross domestic product to grow at a 2.6% annualized pace in 2023, a half percentage point increase from the last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, roughly unchanged from the previous outlook. Projections for the unemployment rate were largely unchanged, at 3.8% in 2023 and rising to 4.1% in subsequent years.
Officials have stressed their willingness to hike rates again if inflation flares up. However, most have said they can be patient now as they watch the impact the previous policy tightening moves are having on the U.S. economy.
Stubbornly high prices have exacted a political toll on President Joe Biden, whose approval rating has suffered in large part because of negative sentiment on how he has handled the economy. There had been some speculation that the Fed could be reluctant to make any dramatic policy actions during a presidential election year, which looms large in 2024.
However, with real rates, or the difference between the fed funds rate and inflation, running high, the Fed would be more likely to act if the inflation data continues to cooperate.
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Honestly, if they pull this soft landing off, I will be so impressed. It's been a really amazing job. Now there is not "no effect" on the economy. I am seeing ramifications of the rate hikes. I work with a ton of what are known as "Fintechs". These are non-bank lenders. They use institutional money to lend to consumers. You know the names, you just don't know that they are not lending out of deposits. These companies are really struggling right now because they have no spread between what they have to borrow at, and what they can charge consumers. The whole financial side is falling apart and they are RIFing people left and right. Good, smart people.The Juggler said:10 year inching closer and closer to dropping below 4%. Fed may have actually walked that tight rope to perfection and avoided a recession, though not out of the woods yet.
We're already helping folks who purchased earlier this year to streamline down to a lower rate...giggity
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2023.htmlFed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024
PUBLISHED WED, DEC 13 20232:00 PM ESTUPDATED 43 MIN AGOSHAREShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via EmailWATCH NOWVIDEO05:02Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond.
With the inflation rate easing and the economy holding in, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That’s less than market pricing of four, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated.
Markets had widely anticipated the decision to stay put, which could end a cycle that has seen 11 hikes, pushing the fed funds rate to its highest level in more than 22 years. There was uncertainty, though, about how ambitious the FOMC might be regarding policy easing. Following the release of the decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 400 points, surpassing 37,000 for the first time.
The committee’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates another four cuts in 2025, or a full percentage point. Three more reductions in 2026 would take the fed funds rate down to between 2%-2.25%, close to the long-run outlook, though there was considerable dispersion in the estimates for the final two years.
In a possible nod that hikes are over, the statement said that the committee would take multiple factors into account for “any” more policy tightening, a word that had not appeared previously.
Along with the interest rate hikes, the Fed has been allowing up to $95 billion a month in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off its balance sheet. That process has continued, and there has been no indication the Fed is willing to curtail that portion of policy tightening.
Inflation ‘eased over the past year’
The developments come amid a brightening picture for inflation that had spiked to a 40-year high in mid-2022.
“Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That’s very good news,” Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference.
That echoed new language in the post-meeting statement. The committee added the qualifier that inflation has “eased over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as “elevated.” Fed officials see core inflation falling to 3.2% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024, then to 2.2% in 2025. Finally, it gets back to the 2% target in 2026.
Economic data released this week showed both consumer and wholesale prices were little changed in November. By some measures, though, the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target. Bank of America’s calculations indicate that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be around 3.1% year over year in November, and actually could hit a 2% six-month annualized rate, meeting the central bank’s goal.
The statement also noted that the economy “has slowed,” after saying in November that activity had “expanded at a strong pace.”
In the news conference, Powell said: “Recent indicators suggest that growth in economic activity has slowed substantially from the outsized pace seen in the third quarter. Even so, GDP is on track to expand around 2.5% for the year as a whole.”
Committee members upgraded gross domestic product to grow at a 2.6% annualized pace in 2023, a half percentage point increase from the last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, roughly unchanged from the previous outlook. Projections for the unemployment rate were largely unchanged, at 3.8% in 2023 and rising to 4.1% in subsequent years.
Officials have stressed their willingness to hike rates again if inflation flares up. However, most have said they can be patient now as they watch the impact the previous policy tightening moves are having on the U.S. economy.
Stubbornly high prices have exacted a political toll on President Joe Biden, whose approval rating has suffered in large part because of negative sentiment on how he has handled the economy. There had been some speculation that the Fed could be reluctant to make any dramatic policy actions during a presidential election year, which looms large in 2024.
However, with real rates, or the difference between the fed funds rate and inflation, running high, the Fed would be more likely to act if the inflation data continues to cooperate.
On the bright side, I haven't been able to hire good people for four years, and now there are a ton in the market. The pool of candidates has really improved in quality in the last year.0 -
I follow a lot so called "experts" on twitter and they're mostly all these doom and gloomers who will find a way to spin any economic news as negative. They're having a rough go at it lately...mrussel1 said:
Honestly, if they pull this soft landing off, I will be so impressed. It's been a really amazing job. Now there is not "no effect" on the economy. I am seeing ramifications of the rate hikes. I work with a ton of what are known as "Fintechs". These are non-bank lenders. They use institutional money to lend to consumers. You know the names, you just don't know that they are not lending out of deposits. These companies are really struggling right now because they have no spread between what they have to borrow at, and what they can charge consumers. The whole financial side is falling apart and they are RIFing people left and right. Good, smart people.The Juggler said:10 year inching closer and closer to dropping below 4%. Fed may have actually walked that tight rope to perfection and avoided a recession, though not out of the woods yet.
We're already helping folks who purchased earlier this year to streamline down to a lower rate...giggity
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2023.htmlFed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024
PUBLISHED WED, DEC 13 20232:00 PM ESTUPDATED 43 MIN AGOSHAREShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via EmailWATCH NOWVIDEO05:02Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond.
With the inflation rate easing and the economy holding in, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That’s less than market pricing of four, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated.
Markets had widely anticipated the decision to stay put, which could end a cycle that has seen 11 hikes, pushing the fed funds rate to its highest level in more than 22 years. There was uncertainty, though, about how ambitious the FOMC might be regarding policy easing. Following the release of the decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 400 points, surpassing 37,000 for the first time.
The committee’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates another four cuts in 2025, or a full percentage point. Three more reductions in 2026 would take the fed funds rate down to between 2%-2.25%, close to the long-run outlook, though there was considerable dispersion in the estimates for the final two years.
In a possible nod that hikes are over, the statement said that the committee would take multiple factors into account for “any” more policy tightening, a word that had not appeared previously.
Along with the interest rate hikes, the Fed has been allowing up to $95 billion a month in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off its balance sheet. That process has continued, and there has been no indication the Fed is willing to curtail that portion of policy tightening.
Inflation ‘eased over the past year’
The developments come amid a brightening picture for inflation that had spiked to a 40-year high in mid-2022.
“Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That’s very good news,” Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference.
That echoed new language in the post-meeting statement. The committee added the qualifier that inflation has “eased over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as “elevated.” Fed officials see core inflation falling to 3.2% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024, then to 2.2% in 2025. Finally, it gets back to the 2% target in 2026.
Economic data released this week showed both consumer and wholesale prices were little changed in November. By some measures, though, the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target. Bank of America’s calculations indicate that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be around 3.1% year over year in November, and actually could hit a 2% six-month annualized rate, meeting the central bank’s goal.
The statement also noted that the economy “has slowed,” after saying in November that activity had “expanded at a strong pace.”
In the news conference, Powell said: “Recent indicators suggest that growth in economic activity has slowed substantially from the outsized pace seen in the third quarter. Even so, GDP is on track to expand around 2.5% for the year as a whole.”
Committee members upgraded gross domestic product to grow at a 2.6% annualized pace in 2023, a half percentage point increase from the last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, roughly unchanged from the previous outlook. Projections for the unemployment rate were largely unchanged, at 3.8% in 2023 and rising to 4.1% in subsequent years.
Officials have stressed their willingness to hike rates again if inflation flares up. However, most have said they can be patient now as they watch the impact the previous policy tightening moves are having on the U.S. economy.
Stubbornly high prices have exacted a political toll on President Joe Biden, whose approval rating has suffered in large part because of negative sentiment on how he has handled the economy. There had been some speculation that the Fed could be reluctant to make any dramatic policy actions during a presidential election year, which looms large in 2024.
However, with real rates, or the difference between the fed funds rate and inflation, running high, the Fed would be more likely to act if the inflation data continues to cooperate.
On the bright side, I haven't been able to hire good people for four years, and now there are a ton in the market. The pool of candidates has really improved in quality in the last year.www.myspace.com0 -
Home/Chart of the Week/Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024
Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024
Data gives reason for optimism for economy and transportation market next year
· Saturday, December 16, 2023
Photo: Jim Allen - FreightWavesListen to this article4 minChart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR: CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier, but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21 according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth in consumption.
While he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet against the American consumer.”
Possibly the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are contractionary.
The transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024, indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this level of market downturn.
While Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the “soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately, the solution to the freight market means that several first have to lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
To request a SONAR demo, click here.
Leave a Reply
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment*Name*Email*Save my name and email in this browser for the next time I comment.
Zach Strickland, FW Market Expert & Market Analyst
Zach Strickland, the “Sultan of SONAR,” curates the weekly market update. Zach is also one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. With a degree in Finance, Strickland spent the early part of his career in banking before transitioning to transportation in various roles and segments, such as truckload and LTL. He has over 13 years of transportation experience, specializing in data, pricing, and analytics.© Copyright 2023, All Rights Reserved, FreightWaves, Inc
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So this means that America is still not building things and importing at the same time we are still consuming?mickeyrat said:Home/Chart of the Week/Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024
Data gives reason for optimism for economy and transportation market next year
· Saturday, December 16, 2023Photo: Jim Allen - FreightWavesListen to this article4 minChart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR: CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier, but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21 according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth in consumption.
While he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet against the American consumer.”
Possibly the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are contractionary.
The transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024, indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this level of market downturn.
While Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the “soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately, the solution to the freight market means that several first have to lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
To request a SONAR demo, click here.
Leave a Reply
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment*Name*Email*Save my name and email in this browser for the next time I comment. Zach Strickland, FW Market Expert & Market Analyst
Zach Strickland, the “Sultan of SONAR,” curates the weekly market update. Zach is also one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. With a degree in Finance, Strickland spent the early part of his career in banking before transitioning to transportation in various roles and segments, such as truckload and LTL. He has over 13 years of transportation experience, specializing in data, pricing, and analytics.© Copyright 2023, All Rights Reserved, FreightWaves, Inc0 -
tempo_n_groove said:
So this means that America is still not building things and importing at the same time we are still consuming?mickeyrat said:7Home/Chart of the Week/Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024
Data gives reason for optimism for economy and transportation market next year
· Saturday, December 16, 2023Photo: Jim Allen - FreightWavesListen to this article4 minChart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR: CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier, but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21 according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth in consumption.
While he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet against the American consumer.”
Possibly the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are contractionary.
The transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024, indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this level of market downturn.
While Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the “soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately, the solution to the freight market means that several first have to lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
To request a SONAR demo, click here.
Leave a Reply
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment*Name*Email*Save my name and email in this browser for the next time I comment. Zach Strickland, FW Market Expert & Market Analyst
Zach Strickland, the “Sultan of SONAR,” curates the weekly market update. Zach is also one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. With a degree in Finance, Strickland spent the early part of his career in banking before transitioning to transportation in various roles and segments, such as truckload and LTL. He has over 13 years of transportation experience, specializing in data, pricing, and analytics.© Copyright 2023, All Rights Reserved, FreightWaves, Incfor that question, you'd need to look at port traffic volume, then look at the transportation capacity in that sector.I see more and more warehouse space going up and have since before the pandemic.cant tell though if this comment was sarcastic or not. but benefit of the doubt, how quickly do you believe manufacturing comes back from announcing the admin push for it to production lines starting?_____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '140 -
Tongue in cheek comment.mickeyrat said:tempo_n_groove said:
So this means that America is still not building things and importing at the same time we are still consuming?mickeyrat said:7Home/Chart of the Week/Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024
Data gives reason for optimism for economy and transportation market next year
· Saturday, December 16, 2023Photo: Jim Allen - FreightWavesListen to this article4 minChart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR: CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier, but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21 according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth in consumption.
While he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet against the American consumer.”
Possibly the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are contractionary.
The transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024, indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this level of market downturn.
While Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the “soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately, the solution to the freight market means that several first have to lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
To request a SONAR demo, click here.
Leave a Reply
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment*Name*Email*Save my name and email in this browser for the next time I comment. Zach Strickland, FW Market Expert & Market Analyst
Zach Strickland, the “Sultan of SONAR,” curates the weekly market update. Zach is also one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. With a degree in Finance, Strickland spent the early part of his career in banking before transitioning to transportation in various roles and segments, such as truckload and LTL. He has over 13 years of transportation experience, specializing in data, pricing, and analytics.© Copyright 2023, All Rights Reserved, FreightWaves, Incfor that question, you'd need to look at port traffic volume, then look at the transportation capacity in that sector.I see more and more warehouse space going up and have since before the pandemic.cant tell though if this comment was sarcastic or not. but benefit of the doubt, how quickly do you believe manufacturing comes back from announcing the admin push for it to production lines starting?
That being said, we are making what, 5 chip making plants here in the US?
If we could start up manufacturing again on a bigger scale this country would be a big boom for all over.
U say warehouse space. I see storage units and Amazon hubs all over. My dream to open a storage facility is all but gone now. I missed that boat...0 -
tempo_n_groove said:
Tongue in cheek comment.mickeyrat said:tempo_n_groove said:
So this means that America is still not building things and importing at the same time we are still consuming?mickeyrat said:7Home/Chart of the Week/Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024
Data gives reason for optimism for economy and transportation market next year
· Saturday, December 16, 2023Photo: Jim Allen - FreightWavesListen to this article4 minChart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR: CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier, but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21 according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth in consumption.
While he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet against the American consumer.”
Possibly the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are contractionary.
The transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024, indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this level of market downturn.
While Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the “soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately, the solution to the freight market means that several first have to lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
To request a SONAR demo, click here.
Leave a Reply
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment*Name*Email*Save my name and email in this browser for the next time I comment. Zach Strickland, FW Market Expert & Market Analyst
Zach Strickland, the “Sultan of SONAR,” curates the weekly market update. Zach is also one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. With a degree in Finance, Strickland spent the early part of his career in banking before transitioning to transportation in various roles and segments, such as truckload and LTL. He has over 13 years of transportation experience, specializing in data, pricing, and analytics.© Copyright 2023, All Rights Reserved, FreightWaves, Incfor that question, you'd need to look at port traffic volume, then look at the transportation capacity in that sector.I see more and more warehouse space going up and have since before the pandemic.cant tell though if this comment was sarcastic or not. but benefit of the doubt, how quickly do you believe manufacturing comes back from announcing the admin push for it to production lines starting?
That being said, we are making what, 5 chip making plants here in the US?
If we could start up manufacturing again on a bigger scale this country would be a big boom for all over.
U say warehouse space. I see storage units and Amazon hubs all over. My dream to open a storage facility is all but gone now. I missed that boat...LI right? How much residential development is happening? especially apartments?if thats still a goal , suggest looking at smaller but expanding markets that are building out. Ohio as an example. Specifically Columbus and Deleware to our north. still farmland up for development for retail and mixed residential . And all that goes with it. Like storage......and farther east from us surrounding the intel plant going up. City of Columbus is now growing outside of Franklin County_____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '140 -
_____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '140 -
_____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '140 -
gift article. ..Robust holiday shopping sends economy soaring into 2024
By Rachel Siegel and Aaron Gregg
December 26, 2023 at 16:21 ET
They bought books and coats, fancy dinners and plane tickets. And as 2023 comes to a close, holiday shoppers offered yet another sign that the U.S. economy will roar into the new year.
On Tuesday, fresh retail sales data from Mastercard showed that consumers spent big on gifts, meals and apparel in November and December despite inflation’s lingering bite. Add on strong consumer confidence, and the S&P 500’s approaching an all-time high, and it’s clear that the U.S. economy is in a far better place than just about anyone expected, zapping any hints of a recession and bolstering hope that people will keep opening their wallets in 2024.
“Given the significant uplifts in holiday sales over the past couple of years, and the current pressures on consumer finances, this level of growth can be chalked up as something of a win for consumers,” said Neil Saunders, managing director for retail at GlobalData.
[Biden’s economy vs. Trump’s, in 12 charts]
U.S. retail sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24 were up 3.1 percent compared with the same period a year before, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures sales in-store and online across various forms of payment. Online shopping accounted for a large share of the increase, rising 6.3 percent, compared with a 2.2 percent jump for in-person shopping. Apparel sales rose 2.4 percent. Plus, strong demand for in-person dining powered a 7.8 percent jump in restaurant spending.
Some categories showed declines: Jewelry sales, for example, fell 2 percent, while electronics declined 0.4 percent. (The overall report excludes car sales and is not controlled for inflation.)
[U.S. adds jobs in November as labor market remains slow but steady]
The cheery holiday report was expected, building on a strong summer and third quarter, when the economy grew like gangbusters. Sales on Black Friday set a record of $9.8 billion, up 7.5 percent from the year before. Cyber Monday came in even higher at $12.4 billion, according to Adobe Analytics.continues.
_____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '140 -
In the last 5 years a huge complex has been made in the surrounding towns w a super block opening up here in Long Beach soon. They are very high priced though. Houses arent being built in complexes anymore, only condo developments. Most if not all are for rent too, not for sale.mickeyrat said:tempo_n_groove said:
Tongue in cheek comment.mickeyrat said:tempo_n_groove said:
So this means that America is still not building things and importing at the same time we are still consuming?mickeyrat said:7Home/Chart of the Week/Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024
Data gives reason for optimism for economy and transportation market next year
· Saturday, December 16, 2023Photo: Jim Allen - FreightWavesListen to this article4 minChart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR: CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier, but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21 according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth in consumption.
While he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet against the American consumer.”
Possibly the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are contractionary.
The transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024, indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this level of market downturn.
While Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the “soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately, the solution to the freight market means that several first have to lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
To request a SONAR demo, click here.
Leave a Reply
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment*Name*Email*Save my name and email in this browser for the next time I comment. Zach Strickland, FW Market Expert & Market Analyst
Zach Strickland, the “Sultan of SONAR,” curates the weekly market update. Zach is also one of FreightWaves’ Market Experts. With a degree in Finance, Strickland spent the early part of his career in banking before transitioning to transportation in various roles and segments, such as truckload and LTL. He has over 13 years of transportation experience, specializing in data, pricing, and analytics.© Copyright 2023, All Rights Reserved, FreightWaves, Incfor that question, you'd need to look at port traffic volume, then look at the transportation capacity in that sector.I see more and more warehouse space going up and have since before the pandemic.cant tell though if this comment was sarcastic or not. but benefit of the doubt, how quickly do you believe manufacturing comes back from announcing the admin push for it to production lines starting?
That being said, we are making what, 5 chip making plants here in the US?
If we could start up manufacturing again on a bigger scale this country would be a big boom for all over.
U say warehouse space. I see storage units and Amazon hubs all over. My dream to open a storage facility is all but gone now. I missed that boat...LI right? How much residential development is happening? especially apartments?if thats still a goal , suggest looking at smaller but expanding markets that are building out. Ohio as an example. Specifically Columbus and Deleware to our north. still farmland up for development for retail and mixed residential . And all that goes with it. Like storage......and farther east from us surrounding the intel plant going up. City of Columbus is now growing outside of Franklin County
Long Beach has become a new destination besides the Hamptons. The rich NYers realized they can save 2 hours of driving by coming here... It sucks.0 -
_____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '140 -
_____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '140 -
I've tried explaining this to people and they don't care. No matter whom the president is, even if its a global problem it's the interim's fault...mickeyrat said:0 -
Please explain it to this fucking idiot loltempo_n_groove said:
I've tried explaining this to people and they don't care. No matter whom the president is, even if its a global problem it's the interim's fault...mickeyrat said:
https://community.pearljam.com/discussion/300583/im-a-white-american-update-stupid-is-as-stupid-does#latest
www.myspace.com0 -
lol, dude, hes all yours, sorry.The Juggler said:
Please explain it to this fucking idiot loltempo_n_groove said:
I've tried explaining this to people and they don't care. No matter whom the president is, even if its a global problem it's the interim's fault...mickeyrat said:
https://community.pearljam.com/discussion/300583/im-a-white-american-update-stupid-is-as-stupid-does#latest0 -
Share the following with him but I doubt, for some reason, that he’ll comprehend it. A year and an half old but it explains the forces at play at the time.The Juggler said:
Please explain it to this fucking idiot loltempo_n_groove said:
I've tried explaining this to people and they don't care. No matter whom the president is, even if its a global problem it's the interim's fault...mickeyrat said:
https://community.pearljam.com/discussion/300583/im-a-white-american-update-stupid-is-as-stupid-does#latestThe inflation spike of 2021 and 2022 has presented real policy challenges. In order to better understand this policy debate, it is imperative to look at prices and how they are being affected.
The price of just about everything in the U.S. economy can be broken down into the three main components of cost. These include labor costs, nonlabor inputs, and the “mark-up” of profits over the first two components. Good data on these separate cost components exist for the nonfinancial corporate (NFC) sector—those companies that produce goods and services—of the economy, which makes up roughly 75% of the entire private sector.
Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a pronounced acceleration over the 1.8% price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Strikingly, over half of this increase (53.9%) can be attributed to fatter profit margins, with labor costs contributing less than 8% of this increase. This is not normal. From 1979 to 2019, profits only contributed about 11% to price growth and labor costs over 60%, as shown in Figure A below. Nonlabor inputs—a decent indicator for supply-chain snarls—are also driving up prices more than usual in the current economic recovery.
In previous recoveries, domestic demand growth was slow and unemployment was high in the early phases of recovery. This led firms to become desperate for more customers but also gave them the upper hand in negotiating with potential employees, which led to subdued price growth and wage suppression.
This time around, the pandemic drove demand through the roof in durable sectors and employment has rebounded rapidly, but the bottleneck in meeting this demand on the supply side was largely notlabor. Instead, it was shipping capacity and other nonlabor shortages. Firms that did happen to have supply on hand as the pandemic-driven demand surge hit had enormous pricing power vis-à-vis their customers.
Full article at link:
09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
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