Wondering why tour hasn't been canceled ?

ComeToTX said:

huntersthompson said:

"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damn lies and statistics"
-Mark Twain

The one number that seems to be trustworthy has to do with Coronavirus deaths--although it has been acknowledged that, if you die of a heart attack (for example) and test positive for Coronavirus (even without symptoms present), it is being counted as a Coronavirus death.  The problem arises when trying to determine the denominator--in this instance the number of people who have the virus.  That number is far higher than the number of "reported cases".  There are plenty of folks who have had (in January/February) the virus and thought it was nothing more than the flu or a cold....there are many more (one model has 50% of the population having already been exposed) people who were asymptomatic carriers.  The most annoying graph that is shown is the sharp rise in the number of cases---it is a direct result of more tests being performed.

I am in no way saying that we should not be concerned and continue practicing social distancing (the ridiculously low California death numbers - at this point- have to be attributed at some level to the community actions).  I also cannot state with certainty that this is nothing more than a bad flu---the numbers cannot be trusted at this point.  They can be bent to support whatever result you want to run up your flagpole.  

Basing our positions as to whether concerts, sports, life will begin tomorrow or in 2022 on statistical "proof" (lies) is a fool's errand.  With that said....I am still holding onto my Oakland and LA tickets for the rescheduled date....and I am so willing to bury my head in the sand to the information being provided to me that I went ahead and got Ohana tickets...and a hotel room.  

Sorry for the ramble but "the only thing to fear is fear itself" and I believe that the numbers that are being reported are done for shock and to force compliance for the segment of the population that would say "f*** it" if they were not made to feel that it would likely affect them.  We will be okay--we will make it through this as a world, country, state, community, family and (way down the list) Pearl Jam fans.  

Healthy people in their 20s, 30s and 40s don't die from a bad flu.  this is different.

i've said it before but we won't get back to mass gatherings until we start to test everyone and track.  like s. korea and germany.  i've still heard nothing about any type of system that is being set up.  i predict trump will attempt to re-open the country by mid may and most red states will do it and 3 or 4 weeks later we'll see another massive spike.

The point of my long ramble was that we cannot ascertain anything from the numbers being provided to us beyond the number of deaths being attributed to Coronavirus.  I am sorry if your takeaway was a loose interpretation of one sentence...I was not stating that this was nothing more than a "bad flu"--I was stating that the wonky numbers that are being provided don't illuminate the truth.  They do nothing more than illicit fear in our society...and in this instance that may be an okay result from presenting them as unadulterated fact.  We may find that this virus has a high mortality rate or we may find that it has a standard mortality rate and differs from the "normal" yearly influenza outbreaks by the method in which it "hides" symptoms for 7-10 days all the while being transmitted to other people.

Healthy people in their 20's, 30's and 40's die every year from the "normal" flu...not to mention a more virulent flu like N1H1.  Despite the stories being reported of "young" people dying of this virus, the vast majority are over 70 or folks with compromised immune systems.  There have been no numbers that show this is effecting the younger population significantly more than any other influenza outbreak.  The real outlier in the numbers to date is the relative lack of an effect on infants and young people under 20--typically a group (especially under 5 yo's) that is especially prone to deaths in an influenza type outbreak.  By the way, we have to step back and realize that the news spends significantly more time reporting the "young" deaths for their own reasons-more sensational, scary, emotionally gripping, viewer inducing.

I totally agree with you that testing everyone will be an important component to getting past this chapter in our history.  China (Wuhan specifically) now has a card (digital) that you have to show that confirms a clear test result.  While a logistical nightmare, it would go a long way in allowing people to begin freely moving around, attending concerts (group events), and getting back to a workplace that feels something like the one we left a month or so ago.

I also agree with you that opening up the country too quickly with no effective systems in place (clear test results, for example) will result in geographic spikes of the virus.  This will likely become the "new normal" (a term I hate).  Eventually, if the rate of infection is as prevalent as some people have posited, we will gain the herd immunity that will go a long way to making this a seasonal problem--one with mortality numbers that are not so shockingly large.

Please do not think that I am insensitive to the deaths that have and will occur for the foreseeable future.  The truth is that we will see the other side of this and I am willing to bet on us as a whole.  An honest appraisal is something we all need at this point.  Not the rose-y outlook being pitched by the current administration (although they have been coming more in line with a straight forward delivery as of late) or the "we-are-all-going-to-die" reports by the media.   

SHZA said:

PJNB said:

SHZA said:

PJNB said:

josevolution said:

Vaccination is the only way to get most folks confidence back to gather in peace and that’s a ways away! 2020 is done for me not setting foot anywhere that has a gathering of more that 10 people..

Disagree with the most folks comment. I know there are a lot of people that feel that way, you included but I would say that you would be in the minority for sure. 

I think that's true, but customer sentiment is likely a minor factor in the decision whether and when to resume large gatherings. You could surely find 20,000 people in a large city willing to risk infection to see a big performer, but if science says that some of those people will get seriously ill and die, the government/venue won't allow it to proceed.

Absolutely.

We are listening to these health experts right now and doing as they say with the social distancing. I am 100% on board with this and hope it is doing what it is intended to do. It seems like it is working. What I do not get though is that if these same health experts come out and say that we are good to go to concerts again with no vaccine some people are not going to listen to them? How can we trust them to tells us to stay at home but not trust them to say we can be in crowds again. Not speaking to you just in general. 

Given that our society has never dealt with something like this before, it's natural that some people would be hesitant to go back to business as usual even when the experts say it's safe. Particularly since we've been getting changing and mixed messages from the supposed experts. CDC said for weeks don't wear masks, now we should? If they were wrong before, why should we trust what they say now? And particularly those at higher risk. I'd definitely be raring to go to a game or concert, but my 70-year old father, who's a Springsteen fanatic and not irrationally fearful, says he won't go to anything like that for awhile. 

Your father's prudent approach makes a boatload of sense....

PJNB said:

josevolution said:

Vaccination is the only way to get most folks confidence back to gather in peace and that’s a ways away! 2020 is done for me not setting foot anywhere that has a gathering of more that 10 people..

Disagree with the most folks comment. I know there are a lot of people that feel that way, you included but I would say that you would be in the minority for sure. 

http://blogs.shu.edu/sportspoll/2020/04/09/nearly-3-of-4-americans-say-they-wont-attend-games-without-coronavirus-vaccine-developed/

Red Mosqito said:

I was at my grocery store doing some early morning quarantine shopping with all my PPE on and it got me to thinking. How many of you would be willing to wear a mask at a concert if that was the only way you could attend a concert this year? 

It’d be challenging to drink a beer but I’d do it....I guess.

sorry to say i don't think there will be any tour this year. the summer is going to be challenging. until there is a vaccine then things will go back to somewhat normal. until then just to get more people back to work you may not be allowed out unless wearing mask and gloves. lets hope for some good news but i don't see it just yet. one promoter i spoke to is hoping the 3rd quarter of next year is going to be okay, the problem with this virus is it spreads so easily .  we just lost john prine , a guy who just wanted to play france as he had never been there , booked small venues and unfortunately picked up the virus and passed away. until it is really safe take care of yourselves and help out a neighbor or friend in need.  

SHZA said:

PJNB said:

josevolution said:

Vaccination is the only way to get most folks confidence back to gather in peace and that’s a ways away! 2020 is done for me not setting foot anywhere that has a gathering of more that 10 people..

Disagree with the most folks comment. I know there are a lot of people that feel that way, you included but I would say that you would be in the minority for sure. 

http://blogs.shu.edu/sportspoll/2020/04/09/nearly-3-of-4-americans-say-they-wont-attend-games-without-coronavirus-vaccine-developed/

That's a poll of only 700 people. 

I really don't care how long I have to sit on tics.  I'll wait until 2022 if that's what it takes.  I'm  Optimistic something will go in the fall, but realistically I think they will try and hit the same or similar dates next spring.

Regardless we can all wait and all jam out together safely when the time comes.

I'm going to be pretty peeved if they just cancel and force refunds, then a redraw. I'll hold onto my seats for St. Louis until the show happens, I liked my seats and I don't want to give them up.

NewJPage said:

pjsteelerfan said:

SHZA said:

PJNB said:

josevolution said:

Vaccination is the only way to get most folks confidence back to gather in peace and that’s a ways away! 2020 is done for me not setting foot anywhere that has a gathering of more that 10 people..

Disagree with the most folks comment. I know there are a lot of people that feel that way, you included but I would say that you would be in the minority for sure. 

http://blogs.shu.edu/sportspoll/2020/04/09/nearly-3-of-4-americans-say-they-wont-attend-games-without-coronavirus-vaccine-developed/

That's a poll of only 700 people. 

That's how polling works. It's pretty rare to see a poll of EVERYONE 

Agreed but I would much rather see a pole that was specific to a group of people. I do not care that my 90 year old grandmother has no interest on going to a hockey game now when she had no interest to go before this virus hit. I would be more interested in a season ticket holder survey or a 10C survey personally. 

NewJPage said:

pjsteelerfan said:

SHZA said:

PJNB said:

josevolution said:

Vaccination is the only way to get most folks confidence back to gather in peace and that’s a ways away! 2020 is done for me not setting foot anywhere that has a gathering of more that 10 people..

Disagree with the most folks comment. I know there are a lot of people that feel that way, you included but I would say that you would be in the minority for sure. 

http://blogs.shu.edu/sportspoll/2020/04/09/nearly-3-of-4-americans-say-they-wont-attend-games-without-coronavirus-vaccine-developed/

That's a poll of only 700 people. 

That's how polling works. It's pretty rare to see a poll of EVERYONE 

Wow man, thanks for pointing that out. I would have never known.