Shut out once again. Ten Club, I would like an explanation

William Rae · January 2020

Got BA for OKC. Only one I picked

OceansJenny · January 2020

benjs said:

This isn't complicated, guys.

Here's how I suspect they did it based on it being straightforward and aligning with everything they've shared about the process.

1. Filter on just the applicants for the show being drawn, in first priority
2. Pick a name.
3. Check their preference
4a. If they requested GA, check if there are GA available. Deplete the inventory if necessary, and notify on win/loss.
4b. If they requested Best Available, check if there are GA available. If not, check if there are Reserved available. Deplete the inventory if necessary, and notify on win/loss.
4c. If they requested Reserved, check if there are Reserved available. Deplete the inventory if necessary, and notify on win/loss.
5. Once all entries have been processed to either win/loss within the priority, repeat the exercise with the next priority
6. Once all entries for the show have been processed to either win/loss, move on to the next one (hence why the email alerts came one show at a time)

Technically, once they knew a show was fully allocated, they could've also stopped lottery-ing for that show and send loss notices to everyone after too.

This is the winner. No more speculation. The end.

pledgeagrievance · January 2020

OceansJenny said:

benjs said:

This isn't complicated, guys.

Here's how I suspect they did it based on it being straightforward and aligning with everything they've shared about the process.

1. Filter on just the applicants for the show being drawn, in first priority
2. Pick a name.
3. Check their preference
4a. If they requested GA, check if there are GA available. Deplete the inventory if necessary, and notify on win/loss.
4b. If they requested Best Available, check if there are GA available. If not, check if there are Reserved available. Deplete the inventory if necessary, and notify on win/loss.
4c. If they requested Reserved, check if there are Reserved available. Deplete the inventory if necessary, and notify on win/loss.
5. Once all entries have been processed to either win/loss within the priority, repeat the exercise with the next priority
6. Once all entries for the show have been processed to either win/loss, move on to the next one (hence why the email alerts came one show at a time)

Technically, once they knew a show was fully allocated, they could've also stopped lottery-ing for that show and send loss notices to everyone after too.

This is the winner. No more speculation. The end.

Agreed.

Kevinman · January 2020

amethgr8 said:

I believe there is only one hat/pool/bowl. I know they put all GA ONLY & BA into the first drawing, past that, I don't know.

I would like some input on how someone got their 6th pick over a BA shut out. In this case I believe that they pulled the 6th priority name and didn't pull the BA name. I would like other input on this situation

If they put all GA & BA into 1st drawing....you are implying 2 “hats”?

The 6th priority is crazy....has that really happened over a 1st priority BA? My guess would be the 1st priority had technical issues if so.

PJammer4life · January 2020

That would somewhat explain how people who put Reserved lost even at 99%. If GA was full, then the people who picked BA would all switch to reserved and those numbers would dilute the reserved odds from 99%.

Lerxst1992 · January 2020

Kevinman said:

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

“ GA (General Admission) and Reserved (Seated) Ticket Options:
There is a 2 ticket limit per show. Eligible members may submit a Ticket Request for both GA and Reserved tickets to any given show, but can only possibly be confirmed for one or the other. It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “

Think for a second about the complexity of the two hat theory. Let’s say there are 2,000 GA winners and 1500 of them were BA applicants.

theyd have to go thru the entire data base and scrub out those 1500 winners before doing the second hat draw. Think about how much time and work that adds to the process and how much that adds to the risk of error, by violating this basic rule

“ It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “

”NOT POSSIBLE.” That is the absolute evidence.

they did the Balt draw in under three hours and there’s no way they scrubbed the data base and did a second hat draw, all within the time period we know the draw began and ended.

I don't really want to get into an argument (anymore than I already am), but no....that doesn't say what you're claiming it says.

As for the rest, I'm no programmer, but I can't imagine it would be that hard to create a database that does what you describe. That's only conjecture, though.

I do write programs....and this one would be fairly easy. It is not done manually(someone actually removing names from a database after selected). People saying it’s over complicated to have multiple “hats” might not know how simple it really is to program this to run through 2-6 rounds of multiple hats. Probably hit start, and it goes through picking and eliminating and is done in less than 1 minute.

But do you use the programs? What coders love to say is easy just doesn’t work out that way in real life. We can run in this drawing on Microsoft 365 if you have any doubts.

my point was, why add a layer of complexity, even if you believe you can 100% remove the risk of population error in one minute? What benefit does this create and why is the two hat theory not anywhere in the club literature?

Lerxst1992 · January 2020

RoleModelsinBlood31 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

RoleModelsinBlood31 said:

myoung321 said:

bendhair23 said:

Definitely not a “fair” process. When the odds are 99% for reserved tickets for most shows, and there are this many upset 10c members, it’s obvious they (Ticketmaster and 10c) messed up. What a shame.

Just because the odds were 99% when entered does not mean it stayed at 99% - a majority were much much lower as the lottery ended.

3 hours before lottery ended MSG - TOR - BAL were like 60% Res & 10% GA

Not even close to true.

Those look close to the reported odds at the end of the registration. Do you have evidence otherwise?

He said the majority were much much lower. The last posted photo right before the lotto closed showed the majority were still at 99%. I’m not going to look for the pic but someone can post it for you.

the 99% were all RES shows “as the lottery ended”

Every RES over 100 miles of the Atlantic was stated as 99% as of the last report.

Where was it documented the majority of these shows odds dropped to a “much lower” amount?

Kevinman · January 2020

The future solution: BA should be removed to clear up confusion.

2 options:

GA
Res

Enter for 1 or both(priority 1 and 2)

1st draw: Everyone with Priority 1 GA
2nd draw: Everyone with Priority 1 Res
3rd draw if GA still has room and all Priority 1 GA got tix: Anyone who has priority 2 GA that did not get 1st priority tix.
4th draw if Res still has seats open and all Priority 1 Res got seats: Everyone with priority 2 Res that didn’t get 1st priority tix.

i was under impression this was how this drawing worked with BA=Ga 1st priority, Res 2nd Priority.

Just how I thought it worked, not stating this is how it actually works. Just my interpretation of the rules.

PJNB · January 2020

pjl44 said:

If it's the same process for the fall, I intend to put Best Available for any show(s) I want to go to with priorities that take stated odds into consideration and I will feel extremely comfortable about it.

That is really the only way to go if you want to get in the building. Especially when we see how well this fan to face works.

Lerxst1992 · January 2020

NewfieintheUSA said:

ecdanc said:

Kevinman said:

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

“ GA (General Admission) and Reserved (Seated) Ticket Options:
There is a 2 ticket limit per show. Eligible members may submit a Ticket Request for both GA and Reserved tickets to any given show, but can only possibly be confirmed for one or the other. It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “

Think for a second about the complexity of the two hat theory. Let’s say there are 2,000 GA winners and 1500 of them were BA applicants.

theyd have to go thru the entire data base and scrub out those 1500 winners before doing the second hat draw. Think about how much time and work that adds to the process and how much that adds to the risk of error, by violating this basic rule

“ It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “

”NOT POSSIBLE.” That is the absolute evidence.

they did the Balt draw in under three hours and there’s no way they scrubbed the data base and did a second hat draw, all within the time period we know the draw began and ended.

I don't really want to get into an argument (anymore than I already am), but no....that doesn't say what you're claiming it says.

As for the rest, I'm no programmer, but I can't imagine it would be that hard to create a database that does what you describe. That's only conjecture, though.

I do write programs....and this one would be fairly easy. It is not done manually(someone actually removing names from a database after selected). People saying it’s over complicated to have multiple “hats” might not know how simple it really is to program this to run through 2-6 rounds of multiple hats. Probably hit start, and it goes through picking and eliminating and is done in less than 1 minute.

Interesting. Thank you, Kevin. Do we have any mathematicians or statisticians here? I’m curious if/how odds would be affected for GA, reserved, and BA with one-hat vs. two-hats.

I was a Math major in college. It wouldn't make any difference odds wise either way. Look at it this way, if they drew in one big pool, anyone who has BA who gets picked while GA is available gets GA, same as if they drew GA first then reserved. The only difference is they start giving people who picked Reserved seats earlier.

I think they are saying the BA picks are getting the equivalent of double the picks... that there are separate draws for GA and RES and BA is in both. Although there is no evidence of that, and the rules state it is impossible to be picked twice for one show. To do that IMO they would have to remove every GA winner precisely, and be certain not to remove non winners from a hypothetical second RES draw

so they got a master coder to perfectly scrub the data after each category is picked, so they can tell us it is impossible to be picked twice

pjl44 · January 2020

Kevinman said:

The future solution: BA should be removed to clear up confusion.

2 options:

GA
Res

Enter for 1 or both(priority 1 and 2)

1st draw: Everyone with Priority 1 GA
2nd draw: Everyone with Priority 1 Res
3rd draw if GA still has room and all Priority 1 GA got tix: Anyone who has priority 2 GA that did not get 1st priority tix.
4th draw if Res still has seats open and all Priority 1 Res got seats: Everyone with priority 2 Res that didn’t get 1st priority tix.

i was under impression this was how this drawing worked with BA=Ga 1st priority, Res 2nd Priority.

Just how I thought it worked, not stating this is how it actually works. Just my interpretation of the rules.

No thanks. I far prefer Best Available to the old way.

Kevinman · January 2020

pjl44 said:

Kevinman said:

The future solution: BA should be removed to clear up confusion.

2 options:

GA
Res

Enter for 1 or both(priority 1 and 2)

1st draw: Everyone with Priority 1 GA
2nd draw: Everyone with Priority 1 Res
3rd draw if GA still has room and all Priority 1 GA got tix: Anyone who has priority 2 GA that did not get 1st priority tix.
4th draw if Res still has seats open and all Priority 1 Res got seats: Everyone with priority 2 Res that didn’t get 1st priority tix.

i was under impression this was how this drawing worked with BA=Ga 1st priority, Res 2nd Priority.

Just how I thought it worked, not stating this is how it actually works. Just my interpretation of the rules.

No thanks. I far prefer Best Available to the old way.

How’s BA work....haven’t seen a definite answer from 10C?

BennyLaRue · January 2020

pjl44 said:
No thanks. I far prefer Best Available to the old way.

You prefer what you think BA is supposed to be. Might not be what it is though.

pjl44 · January 2020

Yeah, I'm definitely getting on this merry-go-round again. Good luck everyone. After reading pages upon pages of results, I'm good with this system for the fall.

JF116983 · January 2020

I know technology pretty well and I would thing the programmers put in a flag so There is no scrub they need to do, a simple flag on all who won rounds would remove flagged accounts from lottery

Kevinman · January 2020

JF116983 said:

I know technology pretty well and I would thing the programmers put in a flag so There is no scrub they need to do, a simple flag on all who won rounds would remove flagged accounts from lottery

Yes

NewfieintheUSA · January 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ecdanc said:

Kevinman said:

ecdanc said:

Lerxst1992 said:

“ GA (General Admission) and Reserved (Seated) Ticket Options:
There is a 2 ticket limit per show. Eligible members may submit a Ticket Request for both GA and Reserved tickets to any given show, but can only possibly be confirmed for one or the other. It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “

Think for a second about the complexity of the two hat theory. Let’s say there are 2,000 GA winners and 1500 of them were BA applicants.

theyd have to go thru the entire data base and scrub out those 1500 winners before doing the second hat draw. Think about how much time and work that adds to the process and how much that adds to the risk of error, by violating this basic rule

“ It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “

”NOT POSSIBLE.” That is the absolute evidence.

they did the Balt draw in under three hours and there’s no way they scrubbed the data base and did a second hat draw, all within the time period we know the draw began and ended.

I don't really want to get into an argument (anymore than I already am), but no....that doesn't say what you're claiming it says.

As for the rest, I'm no programmer, but I can't imagine it would be that hard to create a database that does what you describe. That's only conjecture, though.

I do write programs....and this one would be fairly easy. It is not done manually(someone actually removing names from a database after selected). People saying it’s over complicated to have multiple “hats” might not know how simple it really is to program this to run through 2-6 rounds of multiple hats. Probably hit start, and it goes through picking and eliminating and is done in less than 1 minute.

Interesting. Thank you, Kevin. Do we have any mathematicians or statisticians here? I’m curious if/how odds would be affected for GA, reserved, and BA with one-hat vs. two-hats.

I was a Math major in college. It wouldn't make any difference odds wise either way. Look at it this way, if they drew in one big pool, anyone who has BA who gets picked while GA is available gets GA, same as if they drew GA first then reserved. The only difference is they start giving people who picked Reserved seats earlier.

I think they are saying the BA picks are getting the equivalent of double the picks... that there are separate draws for GA and RES and BA is in both. Although there is no evidence of that, and the rules state it is impossible to be picked twice for one show. To do that IMO they would have to remove every GA winner precisely, and be certain not to remove non winners from a hypothetical second RES draw

so they got a master coder to perfectly scrub the data after each category is picked, so they can tell us it is impossible to be picked twice

It's not that hard, when someone is picked, there is a field in the DB where you put their winning option, if that field is populated, they are no longer in the eligible pool. I work in IT, this is pretty common

KC2917 · January 2020

OceansJenny said:

benjs said:

This isn't complicated, guys.

Here's how I suspect they did it based on it being straightforward and aligning with everything they've shared about the process.

1. Filter on just the applicants for the show being drawn, in first priority
2. Pick a name.
3. Check their preference
4a. If they requested GA, check if there are GA available. Deplete the inventory if necessary, and notify on win/loss.
4b. If they requested Best Available, check if there are GA available. If not, check if there are Reserved available. Deplete the inventory if necessary, and notify on win/loss.
4c. If they requested Reserved, check if there are Reserved available. Deplete the inventory if necessary, and notify on win/loss.
5. Once all entries have been processed to either win/loss within the priority, repeat the exercise with the next priority
6. Once all entries for the show have been processed to either win/loss, move on to the next one (hence why the email alerts came one show at a time)

Technically, once they knew a show was fully allocated, they could've also stopped lottery-ing for that show and send loss notices to everyone after too.

This is the winner. No more speculation. The end.

That doesn’t explain the people with first and second priority shows getting shut out while people with lower priorities for the same shows got selected. Speculation continues...

Demps · January 2020

Sarava said:

kristophed said:

Sarava said:

kristophed said:

1st choice Toronto BA
2nd Choice Hamilton BA

Shut out

Hmm, both are 99%. Did you get the email confirming your choices? Or are you sure your CC is good? this doesn't add up. Either way, that sucks and I'm sorry

Got the confirmation email for both, read the email this morning that told me I was not selected.

I'll still be at the shows somehow, just annoying that's all

I would email them and ask nicely if there was a problem with your entry. The odds of missing 2 99%'s is astronomically low. I'm not sure they will respond much to being called out on the forum, though.

Consider me an astronomical anomaly too then. 99% “best available” for both Baltimore & NY & got completely shut out. I get that they do what they can but every “improvement” over the past 10 years has consistently made it more & more difficult for me to secure tix through the 10C. It’s a bummer.

cincybearcat · January 2020

Demps said:

Sarava said:

kristophed said:

Sarava said:

kristophed said:

1st choice Toronto BA
2nd Choice Hamilton BA

Shut out

Hmm, both are 99%. Did you get the email confirming your choices? Or are you sure your CC is good? this doesn't add up. Either way, that sucks and I'm sorry

Got the confirmation email for both, read the email this morning that told me I was not selected.

I'll still be at the shows somehow, just annoying that's all

I would email them and ask nicely if there was a problem with your entry. The odds of missing 2 99%'s is astronomically low. I'm not sure they will respond much to being called out on the forum, though.

Consider me an astronomical anomaly too then. 99% “best available” for both Baltimore & NY & got completely shut out. I get that they do what they can but every “improvement” over the past 10 years has consistently made it more & more difficult for me to secure tix through the 10C. It’s a bummer.

Neither of those shows were 99% when the lottery closed. Closer to 60%

Shut out once again. Ten Club, I would like an explanation

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