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Shut out once again. Ten Club, I would like an explanation
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Comments
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RK50065 said:
I'm not even sure what I would do different!josevolution said:At least anyone who made mistakes on their choices this time should be able to correct by the fall lottery, at least I know I’ve learned a lot about how to enter it next time to give myself a better chance ...BA and RES had the same exact chance to win tickets.0 -
Right, you were willing just like someone who selected ga only to take the risk. My point was more to the person who said picking BA was getting 2 chances which it wasn’t. Congrats on the win.josevolution said:
I choose reserved only for Baltimore 1st choice I won , I didn’t want anything but reserved seating, with BA you don’t have a choice of what you get I got lucky that’s for sure but I was also ok with not winning my number should get me a very good seat!LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:
If you picked ga only or res only, that is on you. If someone didn’t care except but to be in the building, you go with BA because it gives you the greater chance at being selected. Choosing ga 1 and res 2 is a waste of a pick when BA is an option available to youplayerpiano said:tubes10s said:
No, BA does not get two chances. Every name has an equal chance to be drawn ONE TIME. Once a name is drawn, then you check to see if they chose BA, GA, or Reserved, and award the ticket accordingly. There is no two chances.playerpiano said:tubes10s said:Just my opinion, but this is how I see this lottery system working with the descriptions we were all given before we all made our selections:
All 1st Priority BA, 1st Priority GA-only, and 1st Priority Reserved-only names are thrown into the pool. Names are drawn. Names drawn with BA as their choice get GA until GA tickets are gone, and then names drawn with BA as their choice get Reserved tickets. Names drawn with GA-only get GA tickets when they get picked as long as there are GA tickets remaining. Names drawn with Reserved-only get Reserved tickets when they get picked as long as there are Reserved tickets remaining. This continues until all tickets are gone. If all 1st Priority names are drawn and there are still tickets left, then repeat this process with 2nd Priority, etc.
I tend to believe that this is how it worked... or is at least this is how it was intended to work based on the emails we received before signing up for tickets. To think that Reserved-only or GA-only were going to give precedence over BA in any scenario at all just doesn't make sense. Choosing BA says "just get me in the building." It gives you access to 100% of the available tickets. Every ticket in the building is the Best Available at some point in the process. Choosing GA-only or Reserved-only is of course going to lower your chances compared to BA. Those choices give you access to some percentage LESS THAN 100% of the available tickets.
If this were accurate, then all tickets would be BA and Tenclub wouldn't bother with GA or Reserved options. You are still giving BA two chances at tickets to one chance for those who requested Reserved, and even those who requested GA! That is inherently unfair. There would be no GA tickets for those who requested GA, which would be kind of odd. This is not at all how it was intended to work, and there is nothing in the emails that says or implies that this would be the case.
Well, there are two chances. I don't see how there are not two chances. If you have a chance at two sections, and I have a chance at one section, then you have one more chance than I do. That is two priorities vs. one, which is not how it works. Every name cannot possibly have an equal chance to be drawn one time because many of those names are requesting different sections. They are in competition with those who requested the same section, not everyone who requested the same show. This is why you do not see and have never seen a percentage for BA.0 -
Sigh. It being impossible to win both categories in no way eliminates the possibility of using the two-hat method. You win GA, you're not included in the Reserved hat: the impossible has been avoided, while the two hats remain.Lerxst1992 said:ecdanc said:
I don't really want to get into an argument (anymore than I already am), but no....that doesn't say what you're claiming it says.Lerxst1992 said:“ GA (General Admission) and Reserved (Seated) Ticket Options:
There is a 2 ticket limit per show. Eligible members may submit a Ticket Request for both GA and Reserved tickets to any given show, but can only possibly be confirmed for one or the other. It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “Think for a second about the complexity of the two hat theory. Let’s say there are 2,000 GA winners and 1500 of them were BA applicants.
theyd have to go thru the entire data base and scrub out those 1500 winners before doing the second hat draw. Think about how much time and work that adds to the process and how much that adds to the risk of error, by violating this basic rule
“ It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “”NOT POSSIBLE.” That is the absolute evidence.
they did the Balt draw in under three hours and there’s no way they scrubbed the data base and did a second hat draw, all within the time period we know the draw began and ended.
As for the rest, I'm no programmer, but I can't imagine it would be that hard to create a database that does what you describe. That's only conjecture, though.Yes it does,
let’s consider the usual concert ticket warning when there is a two ticket limit to a show.
the ticket company will warn buyers that if they buy more tickets separately they will subsequently void your order for all tickets.
but in that example, they never warn us it is not possible.
here they are saying it is impossible to win both categories.0 -
Understood! Thanks I was pleasantly surprised..LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:
Right, you were willing just like someone who selected ga only to take the risk. My point was more to the person who said picking BA was getting 2 chances which it wasn’t. Congrats on the win.josevolution said:
I choose reserved only for Baltimore 1st choice I won , I didn’t want anything but reserved seating, with BA you don’t have a choice of what you get I got lucky that’s for sure but I was also ok with not winning my number should get me a very good seat!LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:
If you picked ga only or res only, that is on you. If someone didn’t care except but to be in the building, you go with BA because it gives you the greater chance at being selected. Choosing ga 1 and res 2 is a waste of a pick when BA is an option available to youplayerpiano said:tubes10s said:
No, BA does not get two chances. Every name has an equal chance to be drawn ONE TIME. Once a name is drawn, then you check to see if they chose BA, GA, or Reserved, and award the ticket accordingly. There is no two chances.playerpiano said:tubes10s said:Just my opinion, but this is how I see this lottery system working with the descriptions we were all given before we all made our selections:
All 1st Priority BA, 1st Priority GA-only, and 1st Priority Reserved-only names are thrown into the pool. Names are drawn. Names drawn with BA as their choice get GA until GA tickets are gone, and then names drawn with BA as their choice get Reserved tickets. Names drawn with GA-only get GA tickets when they get picked as long as there are GA tickets remaining. Names drawn with Reserved-only get Reserved tickets when they get picked as long as there are Reserved tickets remaining. This continues until all tickets are gone. If all 1st Priority names are drawn and there are still tickets left, then repeat this process with 2nd Priority, etc.
I tend to believe that this is how it worked... or is at least this is how it was intended to work based on the emails we received before signing up for tickets. To think that Reserved-only or GA-only were going to give precedence over BA in any scenario at all just doesn't make sense. Choosing BA says "just get me in the building." It gives you access to 100% of the available tickets. Every ticket in the building is the Best Available at some point in the process. Choosing GA-only or Reserved-only is of course going to lower your chances compared to BA. Those choices give you access to some percentage LESS THAN 100% of the available tickets.
If this were accurate, then all tickets would be BA and Tenclub wouldn't bother with GA or Reserved options. You are still giving BA two chances at tickets to one chance for those who requested Reserved, and even those who requested GA! That is inherently unfair. There would be no GA tickets for those who requested GA, which would be kind of odd. This is not at all how it was intended to work, and there is nothing in the emails that says or implies that this would be the case.
Well, there are two chances. I don't see how there are not two chances. If you have a chance at two sections, and I have a chance at one section, then you have one more chance than I do. That is two priorities vs. one, which is not how it works. Every name cannot possibly have an equal chance to be drawn one time because many of those names are requesting different sections. They are in competition with those who requested the same section, not everyone who requested the same show. This is why you do not see and have never seen a percentage for BA.
jesus greets me looks just like me ....0 -
ecdanc said:
Sigh. It being impossible to win both categories in no way eliminates the possibility of using the two-hat method. You win GA, you're not included in the Reserved hat: the impossible has been avoided, while the two hats remain.Lerxst1992 said:ecdanc said:
I don't really want to get into an argument (anymore than I already am), but no....that doesn't say what you're claiming it says.Lerxst1992 said:“ GA (General Admission) and Reserved (Seated) Ticket Options:
There is a 2 ticket limit per show. Eligible members may submit a Ticket Request for both GA and Reserved tickets to any given show, but can only possibly be confirmed for one or the other. It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “Think for a second about the complexity of the two hat theory. Let’s say there are 2,000 GA winners and 1500 of them were BA applicants.
theyd have to go thru the entire data base and scrub out those 1500 winners before doing the second hat draw. Think about how much time and work that adds to the process and how much that adds to the risk of error, by violating this basic rule
“ It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “”NOT POSSIBLE.” That is the absolute evidence.
they did the Balt draw in under three hours and there’s no way they scrubbed the data base and did a second hat draw, all within the time period we know the draw began and ended.
As for the rest, I'm no programmer, but I can't imagine it would be that hard to create a database that does what you describe. That's only conjecture, though.Yes it does,
let’s consider the usual concert ticket warning when there is a two ticket limit to a show.
the ticket company will warn buyers that if they buy more tickets separately they will subsequently void your order for all tickets.
but in that example, they never warn us it is not possible.
here they are saying it is impossible to win both categories.They’d have to perfectly scrub the database for all GA winners in minutes and achieve an error risk of 0% to tell us winning both categories is not possible. Seeing how difficult these draws can be to administer... and they are promising the data base will be perfectly removed of all GA winners if the RES was a second draw? And doubling the amount of work for every show?
I’m not sure how all this extra work and complexity would benefit the club’s management and why they would do a two hat draw without explicitly telling us they are doing a two hat draw.They are telling us two wins is impossible but are conducting two separate draws? I would guess if they made an error and someone won twice the designer of the lottery would be risking their employment for such a sloppy lottery design.0 -
I took it as BA was risking getting GA and it’s low percentage, but having reserved as a backup if not chosen. They must have done the reserved drawing before the BA for those were not chosen for GA. Reserved 99% odds, BA more overall seats possible, but if you don’t get GA, you go behind those who had reserved as first choice, not put in the same pool.RoleModelsinBlood31 said:Based on my experience you may be right but calling it “best available” and then shelving a person who is chosen until all reserved choice 1’s are gone is pretty much not giving the “best available” at all, lol. Should have called it “GA or wait this the fuck out until we fill all the RES requests you poor bastard.”Bridge Benefit 1994, San Francisco 1995, San Diego 1995 1 & 2, Missoula 1998, Los Angeles 2000, San Diego 2000, Eddie Vedder/Beck 2/26/2002, Santa Barbara 2003, Irvine 2003, San Diego 2003, Vancouver 2005, Gorge 2005, San Diego 2006, Los Angeles 2006 1 & 2, Santa Barbara 2006, Eddie Vedder 4/10/08, Eddie Vedder 4/12/08, Eddie Vedder 4/15/08, 7/12/2008, SF 8/28/09, LA 9/30/09, LA 10/1/09, LA 10/06/09, LA 10/07/09, San Diego 10/09/09, Eddie Vedder 7/6/2011, Eddie Vedder 7/8/2011, PJ20 9/3/2011, PJ20 9/4/2011, Vancouver 9/25/2011, San Diego 11/21/13, LA 11/24/13, Ohana 9/25/21, Ohana 9/26/21, Ohana 10/1/21, EV 2/17/22, LA Forum 5/6/22, LA Forum 5/7/22, EV 10/1/22, EV 9/30/230 -
I do write programs....and this one would be fairly easy. It is not done manually(someone actually removing names from a database after selected). People saying it’s over complicated to have multiple “hats” might not know how simple it really is to program this to run through 2-6 rounds of multiple hats. Probably hit start, and it goes through picking and eliminating and is done in less than 1 minute.ecdanc said:
I don't really want to get into an argument (anymore than I already am), but no....that doesn't say what you're claiming it says.Lerxst1992 said:“ GA (General Admission) and Reserved (Seated) Ticket Options:
There is a 2 ticket limit per show. Eligible members may submit a Ticket Request for both GA and Reserved tickets to any given show, but can only possibly be confirmed for one or the other. It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “Think for a second about the complexity of the two hat theory. Let’s say there are 2,000 GA winners and 1500 of them were BA applicants.
theyd have to go thru the entire data base and scrub out those 1500 winners before doing the second hat draw. Think about how much time and work that adds to the process and how much that adds to the risk of error, by violating this basic rule
“ It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “”NOT POSSIBLE.” That is the absolute evidence.
they did the Balt draw in under three hours and there’s no way they scrubbed the data base and did a second hat draw, all within the time period we know the draw began and ended.
As for the rest, I'm no programmer, but I can't imagine it would be that hard to create a database that does what you describe. That's only conjecture, though.I am lost, I'm no guide, but I'm by your side0 -
He said the majority were much much lower. The last posted photo right before the lotto closed showed the majority were still at 99%. I’m not going to look for the pic but someone can post it for you.Lerxst1992 said:RoleModelsinBlood31 said:
Not even close to true.myoung321 said:
Just because the odds were 99% when entered does not mean it stayed at 99% - a majority were much much lower as the lottery ended.bendhair23 said:Definitely not a “fair” process. When the odds are 99% for reserved tickets for most shows, and there are this many upset 10c members, it’s obvious they (Ticketmaster and 10c) messed up. What a shame.
3 hours before lottery ended MSG - TOR - BAL were like 60% Res & 10% GAThose look close to the reported odds at the end of the registration. Do you have evidence otherwise?I'm like an opening band for your mom.0 -
This thread reminds me of learning java programming in college. The arrays and logic loops made my brain crampseen em at: 08/31/98 - Raleigh : 05/10/00 - Mnt Baker Theatre, Wa : 11/02/00 - PDX : 11/05/00 & 11/06/00 - SEA : 4/3/03 - OKC : 10/03/04 - Grand Rapids : 05/03/10 - KC : 11/15/13 - Dallas : 11/16/13 - OKC : 10/09/14 - Tulsa : 11/20/2016 - ToTD Seattle : 08/10/2018 - SEA : 09/20/2022 - OKC0
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This might sound nuts but does anyone believe that if you live in or near the city where a show is that you got first dibs on tixs because the travel would more carbon neutral?0
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Here's Your Explanation Explained...PRESALE RULES - "Ticket Requests will be confirmed for each show taking your priority into consideration, but it is not guaranteed you will get your first priority."Key words.... into consideration.btw, when do fan club tickets go on sale?
Thank you Mike!!!
1990 12/22
1991 2/1,26; 3/1; 5/25; 8/23,29
1992 1/3,17; 7/22; 9/20
1993 9/5; 10/25; 12/7,8,9
1995 6/24; 11/4
1998 7/10,11,13,14
2000 10/22,25,28,30
2003 6/2,3,5,6; 10/28
2006 7/6,7,9,10,12,13; 11/30; 12/2,9
2009 9/30; 10/1,6,7,9
2010 5/1
2013 11/21,23,24
2014 10/25
2016 11/14
2018 8/8,10
2021 9/26; 10/1,2
2022 5/3,6,7
2024 5/16,18,21,22; 9/27,290 -
Yes. Won Nashville BA as priority 1, lost STL reserved as priority 2.mace1229 said:I’ll be more interested in several days to see how many got shut out and how many got in. There seems to already be a few who go a CC issue email, not sure if they were declined or confirmed at first though.
There was definitely some shenanigans going on today. But from most of what I read it still seems like most who didn’t get tickets either got shut out on everything or never heard so they assume it was a no.
With the exception on Bal and MSG, did anyone get confirmed for pick 1 and actually get an email denied for pick 2? If it was really due to high demand that should be the case, but I haven’t heard many with that. It’s either “I got denied for my first pick” or “I never heard anything.”0 -
Interesting. Thank you, Kevin. Do we have any mathematicians or statisticians here? I’m curious if/how odds would be affected for GA, reserved, and BA with one-hat vs. two-hats.Kevinman said:
I do write programs....and this one would be fairly easy. It is not done manually(someone actually removing names from a database after selected). People saying it’s over complicated to have multiple “hats” might not know how simple it really is to program this to run through 2-6 rounds of multiple hats. Probably hit start, and it goes through picking and eliminating and is done in less than 1 minute.ecdanc said:
I don't really want to get into an argument (anymore than I already am), but no....that doesn't say what you're claiming it says.Lerxst1992 said:“ GA (General Admission) and Reserved (Seated) Ticket Options:
There is a 2 ticket limit per show. Eligible members may submit a Ticket Request for both GA and Reserved tickets to any given show, but can only possibly be confirmed for one or the other. It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “Think for a second about the complexity of the two hat theory. Let’s say there are 2,000 GA winners and 1500 of them were BA applicants.
theyd have to go thru the entire data base and scrub out those 1500 winners before doing the second hat draw. Think about how much time and work that adds to the process and how much that adds to the risk of error, by violating this basic rule
“ It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “”NOT POSSIBLE.” That is the absolute evidence.
they did the Balt draw in under three hours and there’s no way they scrubbed the data base and did a second hat draw, all within the time period we know the draw began and ended.
As for the rest, I'm no programmer, but I can't imagine it would be that hard to create a database that does what you describe. That's only conjecture, though.0 -
ecdanc said:
Interesting. Thank you, Kevin. Do we have any mathematicians or statisticians here? I’m curious if/how odds would be affected for GA, reserved, and BA with one-hat vs. two-hats.Kevinman said:
I do write programs....and this one would be fairly easy. It is not done manually(someone actually removing names from a database after selected). People saying it’s over complicated to have multiple “hats” might not know how simple it really is to program this to run through 2-6 rounds of multiple hats. Probably hit start, and it goes through picking and eliminating and is done in less than 1 minute.ecdanc said:
I don't really want to get into an argument (anymore than I already am), but no....that doesn't say what you're claiming it says.Lerxst1992 said:“ GA (General Admission) and Reserved (Seated) Ticket Options:
There is a 2 ticket limit per show. Eligible members may submit a Ticket Request for both GA and Reserved tickets to any given show, but can only possibly be confirmed for one or the other. It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “Think for a second about the complexity of the two hat theory. Let’s say there are 2,000 GA winners and 1500 of them were BA applicants.
theyd have to go thru the entire data base and scrub out those 1500 winners before doing the second hat draw. Think about how much time and work that adds to the process and how much that adds to the risk of error, by violating this basic rule
“ It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “”NOT POSSIBLE.” That is the absolute evidence.
they did the Balt draw in under three hours and there’s no way they scrubbed the data base and did a second hat draw, all within the time period we know the draw began and ended.
As for the rest, I'm no programmer, but I can't imagine it would be that hard to create a database that does what you describe. That's only conjecture, though.
I was a Math major in college. It wouldn't make any difference odds wise either way. Look at it this way, if they drew in one big pool, anyone who has BA who gets picked while GA is available gets GA, same as if they drew GA first then reserved. The only difference is they start giving people who picked Reserved seats earlier.0 -
I agree with the first part but not the part about doing reserved before BA. I had BA as my first and only priority for Hamilton. I believe I was one of the first on here to get the email regarding confirmations. Time stamp of 8:34pmPJammer4life said:
I took it as BA was risking getting GA and it’s low percentage, but having reserved as a backup if not chosen. They must have done the reserved drawing before the BA for those were not chosen for GA. Reserved 99% odds, BA more overall seats possible, but if you don’t get GA, you go behind those who had reserved as first choice, not put in the same pool.RoleModelsinBlood31 said:Based on my experience you may be right but calling it “best available” and then shelving a person who is chosen until all reserved choice 1’s are gone is pretty much not giving the “best available” at all, lol. Should have called it “GA or wait this the fuck out until we fill all the RES requests you poor bastard.”0 -
This would have been my guess, but I'm about as far from math as one can be.NewfieintheUSA said:ecdanc said:
Interesting. Thank you, Kevin. Do we have any mathematicians or statisticians here? I’m curious if/how odds would be affected for GA, reserved, and BA with one-hat vs. two-hats.Kevinman said:
I do write programs....and this one would be fairly easy. It is not done manually(someone actually removing names from a database after selected). People saying it’s over complicated to have multiple “hats” might not know how simple it really is to program this to run through 2-6 rounds of multiple hats. Probably hit start, and it goes through picking and eliminating and is done in less than 1 minute.ecdanc said:
I don't really want to get into an argument (anymore than I already am), but no....that doesn't say what you're claiming it says.Lerxst1992 said:“ GA (General Admission) and Reserved (Seated) Ticket Options:
There is a 2 ticket limit per show. Eligible members may submit a Ticket Request for both GA and Reserved tickets to any given show, but can only possibly be confirmed for one or the other. It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “Think for a second about the complexity of the two hat theory. Let’s say there are 2,000 GA winners and 1500 of them were BA applicants.
theyd have to go thru the entire data base and scrub out those 1500 winners before doing the second hat draw. Think about how much time and work that adds to the process and how much that adds to the risk of error, by violating this basic rule
“ It is not possible to be confirmed for both GA and Reserved tickets for the same show. “”NOT POSSIBLE.” That is the absolute evidence.
they did the Balt draw in under three hours and there’s no way they scrubbed the data base and did a second hat draw, all within the time period we know the draw began and ended.
As for the rest, I'm no programmer, but I can't imagine it would be that hard to create a database that does what you describe. That's only conjecture, though.
I was a Math major in college. It wouldn't make any difference odds wise either way. Look at it this way, if they drew in one big pool, anyone who has BA who gets picked while GA is available gets GA, same as if they drew GA first then reserved. The only difference is they start giving people who picked Reserved seats earlier.0 -
I believe there is only one hat/pool/bowl. I know they put all GA ONLY & BA into the first drawing, past that, I don't know.
I would like some input on how someone got their 6th pick over a BA shut out. In this case I believe that they pulled the 6th priority name and didn't pull the BA name. I would like other input on this situationAmy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
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Just stop with all this is rules language. “... taking your priority into consideration, but it is not guaranteed...” What a bunch of nonsense!!!Windermere11 said:Here's Your Explanation Explained...PRESALE RULES - "Ticket Requests will be confirmed for each show taking your priority into consideration, but it is not guaranteed you will get your first priority."Key words.... into consideration.btw, when do fan club tickets go on sale?
Im a longtime dues paying member of this club, I shouldnt have to be able to comprehend reading at a third grade level in order to get tickets to a concert. What a load of trash.
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If it's the same process for the fall, I intend to put Best Available for any show(s) I want to go to with priorities that take stated odds into consideration and I will feel extremely comfortable about it.0
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