Universal Basic Income (UBI)
tempo_n_groove
Posts: 41,534
Universal basic income (UBI) is a model for providing all citizens of a country or other geographic area with a given sum of money, regardless of their income, resources or employment status. The purpose of the UBI is to prevent or reduce poverty and increase equality among citizens.
I just listened to this Joe Rogan podcast with Andrew Yang. Though I may not entirely agree with the concept, the facts that he has on what is coming in the way of robotics and job loss is staggering.
College and entrepreneurship are great topics that Yang touches on too.
Please give this a listen. This was such a great interview.
Let me know what you think.
https://youtu.be/cTsEzmFamZ8
New Jersey just passed a bill where they are going to try this. Soryy it's a POST article. You can research other articles about it.
https://nypost.com/2019/03/18/newark-aims-to-become-first-big-city-to-roll-out-universal-basic-income/
I just listened to this Joe Rogan podcast with Andrew Yang. Though I may not entirely agree with the concept, the facts that he has on what is coming in the way of robotics and job loss is staggering.
College and entrepreneurship are great topics that Yang touches on too.
Please give this a listen. This was such a great interview.
Let me know what you think.
https://youtu.be/cTsEzmFamZ8New Jersey just passed a bill where they are going to try this. Soryy it's a POST article. You can research other articles about it.
https://nypost.com/2019/03/18/newark-aims-to-become-first-big-city-to-roll-out-universal-basic-income/
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Really good podcast. I listened when it first aired. Super smart dude. The discussion on automation as it relates to truck driving I found particularly interesting.
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While robotics are consuming/modifying mechanical jobs, AI is doing the same for knowledge work, and is only slightly behind.tempo_n_groove said:Universal basic income (UBI) is a model for providing all citizens of a country or other geographic area with a given sum of money, regardless of their income, resources or employment status. The purpose of the UBI is to prevent or reduce poverty and increase equality among citizens.
I just listened to this Joe Rogan podcast with Andrew Yang. Though I may not entirely agree with the concept, the facts that he has on what is coming in the way of robotics and job loss is staggering.
College and entrepreneurship are great topics that Yang touches on too.
Please give this a listen. This was such a great interview.
Let me know what you think.https://youtu.be/cTsEzmFamZ8
New Jersey just passed a bill where they are going to try this. Soryy it's a POST article. You can research other articles about it.
https://nypost.com/2019/03/18/newark-aims-to-become-first-big-city-to-roll-out-universal-basic-income/
Of the two categories of work 'types' - mechanical and knowledge - there are varying degrees of mechanical and knowledge-based tasks. Packing a box (mechanical) still depends on the right way to pack it (knowledge), for example, and analyzing historical trends (knowledge) still requires building a report (mechanical).
I think there are two future realities which are likely be encountered by workers.
1) The value the employee is adding through knowledge work is minimal, so when the robotics can replace the worker's mechanical functions (the drudge work), the employee is let go, and the team either uses their existing thought leadership resources, or pivots to develop those existing resources
2) The value the employee is adding through knowledge work is large, so when the robotics can replace the worker's mechanical functions (the drudge work), the employee is developed into a thought leader (where they typically make more money)
I know it goes without saying, but integrating automation and robotics correctly in today's day and age, is an enormous competitive advantage. My hope is that employees start to see this and start showing their worth from a knowledge work perspective, and that businesses start to ask for more knowledge work to give them this opportunity to have a future in this radically changed environment.'05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2
EV
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This is where I really hope that peak oil proponents are correct. A world where everything is automated and most work is done by robots? Artificial intelligence? That sounds like the end of the world to me.I'm also wondering why we don't hear much about earth overshoot day defined by Wikipedia as, "Earth Overshoot Day (EOD), previously known as Ecological Debt Day (EDD), is the calculated illustrative calendar date on which humanity’s resource consumption for the year exceeds Earth's capacity to regenerate those resources that year." That day comes earlier in the year each year. Last year it was August 4th, this year it's August 1st. How long can that go on? Are robots going to create more resources out of thin air?So I'm rooting for peak oil to really does happen*. Barring a break through in some kind of energy source, other than oil, we will probably return to a made-by hand kind of world. A real word where people, not robots make, build, create. A natural world.*My understanding is that solar power will not be able to replace oil- at least not in a world of 7, 8, 10 billion people- because it takes oil to make solar panels and they wear out, requiring more oil to make more panels and the further along we go, the less oil there is, etc. And peak oil makes sense to me but I don't hear much about it these days. Denial, maybe?
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Free if you have the time.
For the next 8 weeks, some of the best-known minds in the study of the future of work will be appearing at MIT.
What's next: It's a free online course led by MIT's Thomas Kochan and Elisabeth Reynolds, and it will track technological history going back to the 19th century, income inequality, labor groups, automation, German manufacturing and more. In the final 4 weeks, students look at the social contract coming out of WWII and create a new one for the new age of automation, Kochan tells Axios.
Show less- Among speakers (appearing in videos made for the course) are tech historian David Mindell, roboticists Daniela Rus and Julie Shah, labor economist David Autor, and automation expert Erik Brynjolfsson.
- Some 1,900 students from around the world are already signed up, Kochan said.
- The median age of students this year is now 38, up from last year's 30, as more professionals sign up, he said.
The course starts next Tuesday. I myself am going to be taking it. Register here.
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Amazon of all people has discussed making green houses in Mid western states to 1-stop the mass exodus of food from the west and 2-have a shorter route for food to travel.brianlux said:This is where I really hope that peak oil proponents are correct. A world where everything is automated and most work is done by robots? Artificial intelligence? That sounds like the end of the world to me.I'm also wondering why we don't hear much about earth overshoot day defined by Wikipedia as, "Earth Overshoot Day (EOD), previously known as Ecological Debt Day (EDD), is the calculated illustrative calendar date on which humanity’s resource consumption for the year exceeds Earth's capacity to regenerate those resources that year." That day comes earlier in the year each year. Last year it was August 4th, this year it's August 1st. How long can that go on? Are robots going to create more resources out of thin air?So I'm rooting for peak oil to really does happen*. Barring a break through in some kind of energy source, other than oil, we will probably return to a made-by hand kind of world. A real word where people, not robots make, build, create. A natural world.*My understanding is that solar power will not be able to replace oil- at least not in a world of 7, 8, 10 billion people- because it takes oil to make solar panels and they wear out, requiring more oil to make more panels and the further along we go, the less oil there is, etc. And peak oil makes sense to me but I don't hear much about it these days. Denial, maybe?
There is tons of land that can be built to make mega greenhouses.0 -
Nanotechnology could have some good influence here. One of the challenges with solar panels is that they can only capture energy from sunlight which hits perpendicular to the plain (hence why solar panel farms often angle to follow the sun). Almost a decade ago now, I came across a university study where they had successfully transformed the molecular structure to spherical instead of 2D. Think a flat panel that's made of 'microdots', which are able to capture solar energy with almost unfathomably large efficiencies (in the mid-90% compared to <30% without the molecular shape change) because a sphere is perpendicular to the solar direction almost all the time. The added bonus is that solar farms wouldn't have to adjust their angles anymore. I can't speak to the efficiency gains they've reached now, but the idea of spherical (from a molecular perspective) photovoltaic equipment has resonated with me for almost ten years, and my gut still tells me I'll see some brilliant scientist announce its mass deployment in the near future.brianlux said:This is where I really hope that peak oil proponents are correct. A world where everything is automated and most work is done by robots? Artificial intelligence? That sounds like the end of the world to me.I'm also wondering why we don't hear much about earth overshoot day defined by Wikipedia as, "Earth Overshoot Day (EOD), previously known as Ecological Debt Day (EDD), is the calculated illustrative calendar date on which humanity’s resource consumption for the year exceeds Earth's capacity to regenerate those resources that year." That day comes earlier in the year each year. Last year it was August 4th, this year it's August 1st. How long can that go on? Are robots going to create more resources out of thin air?So I'm rooting for peak oil to really does happen*. Barring a break through in some kind of energy source, other than oil, we will probably return to a made-by hand kind of world. A real word where people, not robots make, build, create. A natural world.*My understanding is that solar power will not be able to replace oil- at least not in a world of 7, 8, 10 billion people- because it takes oil to make solar panels and they wear out, requiring more oil to make more panels and the further along we go, the less oil there is, etc. And peak oil makes sense to me but I don't hear much about it these days. Denial, maybe?'05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2
EV
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The more I work with data analytics (which I'm lucky enough to do almost full-time these days), the more I come to accept that your first paragraph is the inevitable direction of our society, unless we're collectively going to say no to making more money. I don't see that happening, so yes, I feel that this is one of several likely sources of the end of humanity.brianlux said:This is where I really hope that peak oil proponents are correct. A world where everything is automated and most work is done by robots? Artificial intelligence? That sounds like the end of the world to me.I'm also wondering why we don't hear much about earth overshoot day defined by Wikipedia as, "Earth Overshoot Day (EOD), previously known as Ecological Debt Day (EDD), is the calculated illustrative calendar date on which humanity’s resource consumption for the year exceeds Earth's capacity to regenerate those resources that year." That day comes earlier in the year each year. Last year it was August 4th, this year it's August 1st. How long can that go on? Are robots going to create more resources out of thin air?So I'm rooting for peak oil to really does happen*. Barring a break through in some kind of energy source, other than oil, we will probably return to a made-by hand kind of world. A real word where people, not robots make, build, create. A natural world.*My understanding is that solar power will not be able to replace oil- at least not in a world of 7, 8, 10 billion people- because it takes oil to make solar panels and they wear out, requiring more oil to make more panels and the further along we go, the less oil there is, etc. And peak oil makes sense to me but I don't hear much about it these days. Denial, maybe?'05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2
EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 10 -
I'm really surprised that this thread doesn't get more traction?
My guess is people just love negative things so they can bitch about them?0 -
I didn't see it until now.tempo_n_groove said:I'm really surprised that this thread doesn't get more traction?
My guess is people just love negative things so they can bitch about them?
Here's what I don't get about UBI, according to the definition in your lead post, why would it not be means tested? How does giving everyone the same sum of money promote equality? By definition it would promote inflation, and therefore not actually increase spending power of those living on the UBI.0 -
It's just such a huge, complicated issue that I don't have the energy to get into it deeply at the moment. But I support it 100% FWIW - UBI should be researched, tested, reworked, retested, evaluated under all kinds of various economic and social scenarios, piloted over and over again, and other factors should be manipulated where needed until UBI can work well. I think it will be an absolutely necessity for a society that will be even close to slightly equitable and livable, and that it will have to be hugely accommodated on many levels rather than just dropped into an existing system and expected to flow well.tempo_n_groove said:I'm really surprised that this thread doesn't get more traction?
My guess is people just love negative things so they can bitch about them?
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata0 -
You'll have to listen to his reasoning. I won't even bother to try and say I'm an expert, just listen to him and he explains it all.mrussel1 said:
I didn't see it until now.tempo_n_groove said:I'm really surprised that this thread doesn't get more traction?
My guess is people just love negative things so they can bitch about them?
Here's what I don't get about UBI, according to the definition in your lead post, why would it not be means tested? How does giving everyone the same sum of money promote equality? By definition it would promote inflation, and therefore not actually increase spending power of those living on the UBI.0 -
There was talk about when the bailouts and quantitative easing was going on that it would have been better spent if the money had gone into the peoples hands rather than the corporations. I think that would have been a tremendous upside and would have helped out all those companies better than just giving them the money.PJ_Soul said:
It's just such a huge, complicated issue that I don't have the energy to get into it deeply at the moment. But I support it 100% FWIW - UBI should be researched, tested, reworked, retested, evaluated under all kinds of various economic and social scenarios, piloted over and over again, and other factors should be manipulated where needed until UBI can work well. I think it will be an absolutely necessity for a society that will be even close to slightly equitable and livable, and that it will have to be hugely accommodated on many levels rather than just dropped into an existing system and expected to flow well.tempo_n_groove said:I'm really surprised that this thread doesn't get more traction?
My guess is people just love negative things so they can bitch about them?
Jersey is going to try this now so there will be some info in the upcoming months about it.0 -
I'd love to argue quantitative easing. I think it was genius and it worked. Giving people money is not better than giving people jobs. We'd probably still have 10% unemployment if we didn't spur new investments. Trickle down doesn't work on its own, but neither does bottom up economics.tempo_n_groove said:
There was talk about when the bailouts and quantitative easing was going on that it would have been better spent if the money had gone into the peoples hands rather than the corporations. I think that would have been a tremendous upside and would have helped out all those companies better than just giving them the money.PJ_Soul said:
It's just such a huge, complicated issue that I don't have the energy to get into it deeply at the moment. But I support it 100% FWIW - UBI should be researched, tested, reworked, retested, evaluated under all kinds of various economic and social scenarios, piloted over and over again, and other factors should be manipulated where needed until UBI can work well. I think it will be an absolutely necessity for a society that will be even close to slightly equitable and livable, and that it will have to be hugely accommodated on many levels rather than just dropped into an existing system and expected to flow well.tempo_n_groove said:I'm really surprised that this thread doesn't get more traction?
My guess is people just love negative things so they can bitch about them?
Jersey is going to try this now so there will be some info in the upcoming months about it.0 -
I do think eventually people are going to have to be subsidized. I just do not how and who. I mean, should doctors and lawyers receive a UBI? and then they'll argue they shouldn't pay to support people.Give Peas A Chance…0
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Meltdown99 said:I do think eventually people are going to have to be subsidized. I just do not how and who. I mean, should doctors and lawyers receive a UBI? and then they'll argue they shouldn't pay to support people.It should be the companies/businesses/corporations/government who are saving all the money by not paying workers who support people, not the people who are working. I think the only way for this to work is for all that money that previously went to salaries/wages/benefits (which is ultimately paid for by consumers anyhow) to be shifted to taxes that then get distributed back to the consumers just like that money is now (barely) via wages and benefits. This seems like the easy part to me, frankly. The hard part is figuring out what all these people will do otherwise. Obviously UBI isn't intended to just leave millions sitting on their asses with nothing to do. I think it will have to be accompanied by major programs geared towards volunteer work, the arts, and other unpaid enrichment activities so that the people replaced by machines can still be a benefit to society, and so they have options to feel fulfilled personally. And of course, investment into education to fit into such a new world would be a huge part of any workable plan too. And ultimately, in a long time... hopefully all this can be done without monetary currency at all. That should be the ultimate goal IMO. I doubt humans are capable of being that admirable, but you never know. Maybe in 500 years or something people will have figured it out. Yes, this is a very Star Trek view of the future, lol, but hell, why not expect the best from humankind?? I think we all should, and then at least there are attempts to strive for better things.Post edited by PJ_Soul onWith all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata0
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Honestly, I'm not sure it is going to move so fast that we'll even notice. I mean, what if the unemployment rate stays sub 5% for the next 15 years and we turn around, and all the manufacturing is done with robots and we are just using people to deploy and manage the robots. Will we need UBI then? Maybe not. At what point do we need it? If full unemployment is redefined as 10% then maybe so.0
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If unemployment doesn't go way up then it wouldn't be necessary. It's a discussion because it's predicted that 25% of the workforce will be out of jobs because of automation in the not-too-distant future, and that percentage will only go up from there slowly, likely hitting 50% at some point down the road. It would definitely be best to work out a plan before that starts to happen and not after! We don't want to be trying to design a workable UBI system (around the world no less) during an emergency humanitarian crisis as people are all losing their homes and starving because of a massive lack of jobs obviously, lol. A devastating depression is not the ideal scenario for a UBI system launch, haha. That said... I don't really expect any worse from a lot of governments, including America's and Canada's. I think our governments have a real habit of acting too late on things, especially the hard things. And there is nothing harder than completely redesigning a nation's economic system. Plus, this will take actual cooperation and agreement across party lines. Fat chance.mrussel1 said:Honestly, I'm not sure it is going to move so fast that we'll even notice. I mean, what if the unemployment rate stays sub 5% for the next 15 years and we turn around, and all the manufacturing is done with robots and we are just using people to deploy and manage the robots. Will we need UBI then? Maybe not. At what point do we need it? If full unemployment is redefined as 10% then maybe so.
Post edited by PJ_Soul onWith all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata0 -
Well this is all definitely true. There's never political will until it's too late. Climate change is exhibit A in America. I would like to see that 25% study. That seems exceptionally high, for the US. Now if you are talking about across the world, that could be. I would certainly think so in Vietnam, China and other countries where our manufacturing has migrated.PJ_Soul said:
If unemployment doesn't go way up then it wouldn't be necessary. It's a discussion because it's predicted that 25% of the workforce will be out of jobs because of automation in the not-too-distant future, and that percentage will only go up from there slowly, likely hitting 50% at some point down the road. It would definitely be best to work out a plan before that starts to happen and not after! We don't want to be trying to design a workable UBI system (around the world no less) during an emergency humanitarian crisis as people are all losing their homes and starving because of a massive lack of jobs obviously, lol. A devastating depression is not the ideal scenario for a UBI system launch, haha. That said... I don't really expect any worse from a lot of governments, including America's and Canada's. I think our governments have a real habit of acting too late on things, especially the hard things. And there is nothing harder than completely redesigning a nation's economic system. Plus, this will take actual cooperation and agreement across party lines. Fat chance.mrussel1 said:Honestly, I'm not sure it is going to move so fast that we'll even notice. I mean, what if the unemployment rate stays sub 5% for the next 15 years and we turn around, and all the manufacturing is done with robots and we are just using people to deploy and manage the robots. Will we need UBI then? Maybe not. At what point do we need it? If full unemployment is redefined as 10% then maybe so.0 -
Oh, automation and AI (don't forget about AI - it will have a massive impact!) is going to displace at least some workers from ALL sectors. It is a common misconception that it will only have a really heavy impact on manufacturing. It will include all levels and types of jobs, including medical, secretarial, legal, clerical, transportation and distribution, agricultural, technical, hospitality, government, financial, education, you name it. America is just as vulnerable as any other country.mrussel1 said:
Well this is all definitely true. There's never political will until it's too late. Climate change is exhibit A in America. I would like to see that 25% study. That seems exceptionally high, for the US. Now if you are talking about across the world, that could be. I would certainly think so in Vietnam, China and other countries where our manufacturing has migrated.PJ_Soul said:
If unemployment doesn't go way up then it wouldn't be necessary. It's a discussion because it's predicted that 25% of the workforce will be out of jobs because of automation in the not-too-distant future, and that percentage will only go up from there slowly, likely hitting 50% at some point down the road. It would definitely be best to work out a plan before that starts to happen and not after! We don't want to be trying to design a workable UBI system (around the world no less) during an emergency humanitarian crisis as people are all losing their homes and starving because of a massive lack of jobs obviously, lol. A devastating depression is not the ideal scenario for a UBI system launch, haha. That said... I don't really expect any worse from a lot of governments, including America's and Canada's. I think our governments have a real habit of acting too late on things, especially the hard things. And there is nothing harder than completely redesigning a nation's economic system. Plus, this will take actual cooperation and agreement across party lines. Fat chance.mrussel1 said:Honestly, I'm not sure it is going to move so fast that we'll even notice. I mean, what if the unemployment rate stays sub 5% for the next 15 years and we turn around, and all the manufacturing is done with robots and we are just using people to deploy and manage the robots. Will we need UBI then? Maybe not. At what point do we need it? If full unemployment is redefined as 10% then maybe so.
Post edited by PJ_Soul onWith all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata0 -
You have to listen to the podcast...mrussel1 said:
Well this is all definitely true. There's never political will until it's too late. Climate change is exhibit A in America. I would like to see that 25% study. That seems exceptionally high, for the US. Now if you are talking about across the world, that could be. I would certainly think so in Vietnam, China and other countries where our manufacturing has migrated.PJ_Soul said:
If unemployment doesn't go way up then it wouldn't be necessary. It's a discussion because it's predicted that 25% of the workforce will be out of jobs because of automation in the not-too-distant future, and that percentage will only go up from there slowly, likely hitting 50% at some point down the road. It would definitely be best to work out a plan before that starts to happen and not after! We don't want to be trying to design a workable UBI system (around the world no less) during an emergency humanitarian crisis as people are all losing their homes and starving because of a massive lack of jobs obviously, lol. A devastating depression is not the ideal scenario for a UBI system launch, haha. That said... I don't really expect any worse from a lot of governments, including America's and Canada's. I think our governments have a real habit of acting too late on things, especially the hard things. And there is nothing harder than completely redesigning a nation's economic system. Plus, this will take actual cooperation and agreement across party lines. Fat chance.mrussel1 said:Honestly, I'm not sure it is going to move so fast that we'll even notice. I mean, what if the unemployment rate stays sub 5% for the next 15 years and we turn around, and all the manufacturing is done with robots and we are just using people to deploy and manage the robots. Will we need UBI then? Maybe not. At what point do we need it? If full unemployment is redefined as 10% then maybe so.
So truck driving is going to be gone for the most part in 10 years. All those truck drivers are going to need work.
Now take all the truck stops across middle america. There really isn't a need for them anymore so get rid of those non money making buildings.
All the people that work in them, waiters, waitress', fuel attendants, aren't needed anymore.
Now all the delivery drivers that used to deliver to them aren't needed anymore.
All the manufacturing that was made to send to these stations aren't needed anymore so let's cutback on production and issue more layoffs.
How many jobs do you think that is?
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