Jobs at risk due to automation - what to do?

PJ_Soul · April 2018

I think many people are concerned about this inevitability (thankfully), and it's probably time more folks started taking it seriously IMO. But even though various countries are starting to do little localized experiments with universal basic income programs (including the US), and the topic is coming up more and more, I am getting the feeling that many are in a bit of a state of denial here, including politicians. But those who do talk about it seem to have somewhat positive views. I.e., okay, YAY! Now people will have time to pursue other things and find better careers! ... Hmmm. Seems like a bit too rosy a picture to me, given the almost total lack of action on the part of anyone, really .... But anyway, time to discuss it at length on the AMT? I think so!

A study finds nearly half of jobs are vulnerable to automation

That could free people to pursue more interesting careers

https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2018/04/daily-chart-15?cid1=cust/ddnew/email/n/n/20180424n/owned/n/n/ddnew/n/n/n/nna/Daily_Dispatch/email&etear=dailydispatch&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily_Dispatch&utm_term=20180424

cincybearcat · April 2018

This continues to happen. The reality is skilled workers will be needed but unskilled will not have much opportunity outside basic services....and even some of those being eliminated by technology...I mean I can order my burger from a touch screen right?

I havent read read the article yet but will now.

PJ_Soul · April 2018

Yes, certainly unskilled jobs are very much at risk ... but it seems like a lot of skilled jobs are too. Um, perhaps that's a blessing in disguise?? The cynic in me says that the only way "the powers that be" will do a damned thing about it (in time) is if they and theirs are threatened too, and not just the working poor.

So universal basic income... I get the feeling that a lot of people (especially more conservative people) don't quite have a good grasp of exactly how it works. I've seen so many people act as though it's just a big-ass handout from the government, which would have to just dig into its existing coffers to fund it. I think that's why the idea enrages fiscal conservatives so much, lol. Obviously that wouldn't work. But that isn't what it is. It's about cooperation between corporations/manufacturers/etc and government to make society work as a whole, economically and socially. It benefits those corporations every bit as much as it does those receiving the income without working for it.

josevolution · April 2018

One job that will never be automated Child care there is no way parents will ever leave kids with Fucking Robots ..lol

dankind · April 2018

I just edited a huge report on this. The next decade or so is going to be interesting.

PJ_Soul · April 2018

josevolution said:

One job that will never be automated Child care there is no way parents will ever leave kids with Fucking Robots ..lol

Maybe, maybe not, lol. But apparently teachers are at serious risk... which is disturbing. Plus, child care workers are already woefully underpaid and the positions are insanely difficult to fill because of it, and those who do fill the positions aren't compensated enough for parents to even necessarily trust them more than robots. Even if their jobs aren't at risk, I see a problem in the sector on a few fronts.

josevolution · April 2018

PJ_Soul said:

josevolution said:

One job that will never be automated Child care there is no way parents will ever leave kids with Fucking Robots ..lol

Maybe, maybe not, lol. But apparently teachers are at serious risk... which is disturbing. Plus, child care workers are already woefully underpaid and the positions are insanely difficult to fill because of it, and those who do fill the positions aren't compensated enough for parents to even necessarily trust them more than robots. Even if their jobs aren't at risk, I see a problem in the sector on a few fronts.

No way i'd leave my kids with any robots and ask parents that you know if they would , i have and 9 out of 10 said no way ...Teachers is a different thing , i'm talking about preK kids where diapers still have to be changed and be fed and so on ...Maybe 20 or 30 yrs down the road but not in the next 10 ..

PJ_Soul · April 2018

josevolution said:

PJ_Soul said:

josevolution said:

One job that will never be automated Child care there is no way parents will ever leave kids with Fucking Robots ..lol

Maybe, maybe not, lol. But apparently teachers are at serious risk... which is disturbing. Plus, child care workers are already woefully underpaid and the positions are insanely difficult to fill because of it, and those who do fill the positions aren't compensated enough for parents to even necessarily trust them more than robots. Even if their jobs aren't at risk, I see a problem in the sector on a few fronts.

No way i'd leave my kids with any robots and ask parents that you know if they would , i have and 9 out of 10 said no way ...Teachers is a different thing , i'm talking about preK kids where diapers still have to be changed and be fed and so on ...Maybe 20 or 30 yrs down the road but not in the next 10 ..

There are a lot of bad parents out there man. If it's cheap, they'd do it. But yeah, I'm not suggesting robots will be daycare workers within the next 10 years, haha. Next 30? Maybe. They won't be robots, they'll be androids! ... I would defiantly leave a child of mine in the care of Lieutenant Commander Data.

cincybearcat · April 2018

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/26/roughly-half-of-americans-now-support-universal-basic-income.html

I found this interesting.

PJ_Soul · April 2018

cincybearcat said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/26/roughly-half-of-americans-now-support-universal-basic-income.html

I found this interesting.

That is interesting. though not surprising ... the thing about the most idealistic version of it is that the work that could be done by recipients, assuming the amount is enough to actually support a person comfortably, wouldn't be your typical work as it's thought of now, and much of it probably wouldn't even really bring in extra income. Like artistic endeavors, community public improvement projects, social work... I think, in a perfect world, all such things would be done on a volunteer basis, and a lot of people wouldn't need to work for a salary at all, and the world would be better off for it.

josevolution · April 2018

PJ_Soul said:

josevolution said:

PJ_Soul said:

josevolution said:

One job that will never be automated Child care there is no way parents will ever leave kids with Fucking Robots ..lol

Maybe, maybe not, lol. But apparently teachers are at serious risk... which is disturbing. Plus, child care workers are already woefully underpaid and the positions are insanely difficult to fill because of it, and those who do fill the positions aren't compensated enough for parents to even necessarily trust them more than robots. Even if their jobs aren't at risk, I see a problem in the sector on a few fronts.

No way i'd leave my kids with any robots and ask parents that you know if they would , i have and 9 out of 10 said no way ...Teachers is a different thing , i'm talking about preK kids where diapers still have to be changed and be fed and so on ...Maybe 20 or 30 yrs down the road but not in the next 10 ..

There are a lot of bad parents out there man. If it's cheap, they'd do it. But yeah, I'm not suggesting robots will be daycare workers within the next 10 years, haha. Next 30? Maybe. They won't be robots, they'll be androids! ... I would defiantly leave a child of mine in the care of Lieutenant Commander Data.

lol

cp3iverson · April 2018

I went to my local McDonalds last week and you HAD to order/pay on the screens that were set up. They had workers preparing orders and then calling your number to pickup your food (in my case iced coffee). Looked like less workers on staff. Very interesting. Worked well though.

PJPOWER · April 2018

I can totally see why some fast food employers would automate certain jobs if it was logistically cost saving and more efficient. Kiosks do not require health insurance, do not complain of low wages, and could help avoid a lawsuit or two. This is nothing new, though. Many different aspects of agriculture, for instance, now use automated machines to help with harvest, milk cattle, etc. It is a changing world and people will either adapt or get left behind...as always.

PJ_Soul · April 2018

PJPOWER said:

I can totally see why some fast food employers would automate certain jobs if it was logistically cost saving and more efficient. Kiosks do not require health insurance, do not complain of low wages, and could help avoid a lawsuit or two. This is nothing new, though. Many different aspects of agriculture, for instance, now use automated machines to help with harvest, milk cattle, etc. It is a changing world and people will either adapt or get left behind...as always.

I'm not sure it's as simple as that this time. If there are simply not enough jobs to go around because of AI and automation (and don't think this will only end the kind of work you're talking about - it will hit highly educated and skilled people too), then just saying people have to adjust and do something else just doesn't cut it. We could quite easily get to the point where 100% of all available jobs are filled, and still have a 25% unemployment rate or higher, across a vast number of sectors. That is why it's up to government to get ahead of this entire concept, and get incredibly creative.... Unfortunately, with the conservative attitude discussed in that article cincybearcat posted above, I don't have a whole lot of faith in them doing that in North America. I think Western Europe is going to win this race easily, then Asia... Which could certainly be a major factor, if not the main factor, in America's inevitable tumble from being the global leader that is has been for the past 70 years.... Unless the government's mindset changes dramatically... Will be interesting to see how the new generation of politicians will look at this issue. We're still largely struggling under the baby boomers' yoke IMO, so really we have to wait until they're dead before really being able to assess where we're going in North America in terms of changing the way the economy works in the face of AI and automation. One thing I feel confident about is that it's going to be a disaster if the plan is reactionary rather than proactive.

benjs · April 2018

PJ_Soul said:

PJPOWER said:

I can totally see why some fast food employers would automate certain jobs if it was logistically cost saving and more efficient. Kiosks do not require health insurance, do not complain of low wages, and could help avoid a lawsuit or two. This is nothing new, though. Many different aspects of agriculture, for instance, now use automated machines to help with harvest, milk cattle, etc. It is a changing world and people will either adapt or get left behind...as always.

I'm not sure it's as simple as that this time. If there are simply not enough jobs to go around because of AI and automation (and don't think this will only end the kind of work you're talking about - it will hit highly educated and skilled people too), then just saying people have to adjust and do something else just doesn't cut it. We could quite easily get to the point where 100% of all available jobs are filled, and still have a 25% unemployment rate or higher, across a vast number of sectors. That is why it's up to government to get ahead of this entire concept, and get incredibly creative.... Unfortunately, with the conservative attitude discussed in that article cincybearcat posted above, I don't have a whole lot of faith in them doing that in North America. I think Western Europe is going to win this race easily, then Asia... Which could certainly be a major factor, if not the main factor, in America's inevitable tumble from being the global leader that is has been for the past 70 years.... Unless the government's mindset changes dramatically... Will be interesting to see how the new generation of politicians will look at this issue. We're still largely struggling under the baby boomers' yoke IMO, so really we have to wait until they're dead before really being able to assess where we're going in North America in terms of changing the way the economy works in the face of AI and automation. One thing I feel confident about is that it's going to be a disaster if the plan is reactionary rather than proactive.

PJ_Soul, something my mind always goes back to is that unskilled workers represent the masses, and while I agree that machine learning and automation will impact educated and/or skilled workers, the first impact will be seen on the masses, which means an enormous impact on consumer spending and the economy at large. Businesses seeking a richer bottom-line won't consider this long-term impact of what they'll call cost containment, and America will bear a newfound unemployment epidemic. Then does the government attempt to make a business case for investing in creating new jobs (without guaranteeing that there's a market for the product from the new labour first and risking failure)? Embrace socialist ideals and distribute money to reach the universal basic income? Suffer an unemployment and homelessness wave across the nation? Disappear them? They all seem so unlikely to succeed.

bootlegger10 · April 2018

I have been talking about a universal stipend for years related to AI and job losses. You can say that you just need to adapt, but not everyone is cut out to be computer programmers or tech geeks. We all have different skill sets. I am great at math but a tech job would bore the hell out of me and I don’t have the creativity for it. Completely agree that white collar jobs can go away. For example, AI could make financial statement audits unnecessary, or drastically limit the number of auditors needed.

Maybe we are just like every generation that is scared technology will take all jobs, but I think AI is a completely different animal than what we have dealt with in the past.

The sad thing right now is that there are so many blue collar jobs available and companies can’t find people that aren’t on drugs or will actually show up after they get their first pay check.

bbiggs · April 2018

^ I agree with a lot of this. There is a major shortage of skilled labor. With new construction in housing, for example, the lack of labor is driving up costs.

I’m a mortgage loan officer and we’re already seeing a lot of disruption in the industry. Automation is here and it’s not stopping. The way business is done today, compared to even 10 years ago, is night and day. You hear of things like “Rocket Mortgage” by Quicken Loans, which is partial BS and will not eliminate what human beings do in my business, but things are changing at light speed. Amazon is looking to enter the game as well. That will get really interesting in the coming years when they gobble up market share.

Anyway, scary times for a lot of industries.

brianlux · April 2018

We were just talking about this a few days ago. C was talking to an old friend of hers who seems very up on this kind of stuff. The friend was telling C about computers that are writing their own programs to automate, of all things, dentistry!

There's good reason for concern about loss of jobs and what that will look like but also think that all might be just the first crank of the wheel. Beyond that lies one or two (or more maybe) scenarios: A world in collapse where ecosystems break down and mechanisms exhaust supplies of resources and energy, or a world run by (or perhaps inhabited by) machines. I'm leaning toward the former so if I were 20 years or more younger, I would be developing some good solid basic skill or skills like small scale foundry, blacksmithing, Permaculture, animal husbandry (especially with horse and mules), etc.

In his book, Enough, Bill McKibben wrote about micro machines that can (or will) travel through the blood stream and make changes to your body... which begs the question: Do you think you will get a little pop up in your head that will read, "Are you sure you want to make these changes?"

So are there bright minds out there thinking about how to make reasonable, intelligent choices, or mostly just tech geeks creating shit just because they can?

And is there any strength to my theory that A.I. is developing rapidly and is already in the process of integrating with humans? What the will eventually entail is anyone's guess. I'm not really interested in finding out. In any case, I'd like to tell you that's just a synopsis for a sci fi book no, it really is what I'm thinking might be happening.

cincybearcat · April 2018

PJPOWER said:

I can totally see why some fast food employers would automate certain jobs if it was logistically cost saving and more efficient. Kiosks do not require health insurance, do not complain of low wages, and could help avoid a lawsuit or two. This is nothing new, though. Many different aspects of agriculture, for instance, now use automated machines to help with harvest, milk cattle, etc. It is a changing world and people will either adapt or get left behind...as always.

And while they do occasionally break down, I'm certain they are more reliable showing up to work than the average McD worker.

even flow - question mark · April 2018

When you hear of people, young males joining this and joining that due to the fact that there is no work and how that works in the current state of the world. The powers that be will have it handed to them as the world keeps pumping out humans and give them nothing to do and voila you have a really, really, big problem. If there isn't a world war soon, or some disease (man made or not) to wipe out at least half the worlds population, they will surely bring it on by automating all the jobs.

As for the universal pay for all the rest of the humans???? No dream of owning a house? No more seeing your favourite band live? No more meeting at a pub to discuss how crappy your job is? Some people dig welfare but how is there life when you look at it?

In a nut shell. I still send cheques to keep people employed. I still purchase a coffee at the caf even though we get free coffee at work, to keep people employed. I'd go to a full service gas station if they were still around, to keep people employed. Etc, etc. Yeah, I may be on the outside to some on seeing how this will turn out. But I do my best to make sure everything I interact with involves making sure there is a human on the other end who is employed.

Meltdown99 · April 2018

I refuse to use the automatic ordering system at McDonalds. It's also not faster, I've seen people start their order before me and I've got my food before them. It's far easier to tell a person what I want than a machine.

Jobs at risk due to automation - what to do?

A study finds nearly half of jobs are vulnerable to automation

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