Romney wins popular vote and Obama wins electoral college?

kenny olav
kenny olav Posts: 3,319
edited October 2012 in A Moving Train
It's definitely possible.

In national polls, Romney tends to do better against Obama. He's either in a tie with the President, or he's got a small lead.

But in important swing states like Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Obama has the lead in most polls. He's currently tied with Romney in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado.

Obama can lose in the many of the states he won in 2008, and still win the necessary 270 electoral votes to be re-elected.

For example, if Obama loses in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada and wins in Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, he will have won 271 electoral votes.

All the states listed above are states that Obama won in 2008. He also won Indiana, but the polls show that as a solid red state this year, for whatever reason.

Obama could also lose Wisconsin, but if he wins Colorado, he'll have 270 electoral votes.

We could see the kind of election result we had in 2000, just with the parties switched around this time.
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Comments

  • fear4freedom
    fear4freedom Posts: 920
    Romney is up %7 now in Gallup and the enthusiasm is all in his favor....Romney is going to win this thing by way more than you expect or anticipate! WATCH!!
    Theres no time like the present

    A man that stands for nothing....will fall for anything!

    All people need to do more on every level!
  • chadwick
    chadwick up my ass Posts: 21,157
    fear4freedom wrote:
    Romney is up %7 now in Gallup and the enthusiasm is all in his favor....Romney is going to win this thing by way more than you expect or anticipate! WATCH!!
    i am moving to mexico if romney wins
    for poetry through the ceiling. ISBN: 1 4241 8840 7

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  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,942
    i may end up being wrong, but i doubt that romney is going to win the popular vote. he has pissed off latinos, pissed off african americans, and pretty much stated that women should make less money and should be home to make dinner for the kids, which has pissed off women too..those are groups that romney has to court to win the popular vote..he might win a bunch of states with smaller populations, but most of them are red states anyway.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • fear4freedom
    fear4freedom Posts: 920
    :lol:
    gimmesometruth27 wrote:
    i may end up being wrong, but i doubt that romney is going to win the popular vote. he has pissed off latinos, pissed off african americans, and pretty much stated that women should make less money and should be home to make dinner for the kids, which has pissed off women too..those are groups that romney has to court to win the popular vote..he might win a bunch of states with smaller populations, but most of them are red states anyway.

    :lol::lol::lol:

    your analysis is funny! please explain how he "pissed" off those 3 key groups. Also, the way you interpret things may not be the same as others.....
    Theres no time like the present

    A man that stands for nothing....will fall for anything!

    All people need to do more on every level!
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,942
    fear4freedom wrote:
    :lol:
    gimmesometruth27 wrote:
    i may end up being wrong, but i doubt that romney is going to win the popular vote. he has pissed off latinos, pissed off african americans, and pretty much stated that women should make less money and should be home to make dinner for the kids, which has pissed off women too..those are groups that romney has to court to win the popular vote..he might win a bunch of states with smaller populations, but most of them are red states anyway.

    :lol::lol::lol:

    your analysis is funny! please explain how he "pissed" off those 3 key groups. Also, the way you interpret things may not be the same as others.....
    what percent of african american supporters does he have???

    oh yeah....

    > 5%...
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,942
    what percent of gay voters support him?
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,942
    what percent of young women voters is supporting him?
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,942
    what percent of rich, old white men are supporting him?
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,942
    what percent of internet trolls are supporting him?

    go and visit some other forums and see..
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,942
    fear4freedom wrote:
    :lol:
    gimmesometruth27 wrote:
    i may end up being wrong, but i doubt that romney is going to win the popular vote. he has pissed off latinos, pissed off african americans, and pretty much stated that women should make less money and should be home to make dinner for the kids, which has pissed off women too..those are groups that romney has to court to win the popular vote..he might win a bunch of states with smaller populations, but most of them are red states anyway.

    :lol::lol::lol:

    your analysis is funny! please explain how he "pissed" off those 3 key groups. Also, the way you interpret things may not be the same as others.....
    and how exactly is my analysis funny?
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,942
    what percent of males and females under 25 are supporting him?
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,942
    i think i made my point.

    why is romney pulling resources from some of the swing states to shore up support in others?
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,942
    back on topic...

    it is entirely possible that obama can win the popular vote.

    but it is not the popular vote that matters.

    gore won the popular vote yet bush was given the white house.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,942
    if obama wins ohio, romney is going to have to run the table in the rest of the swing states to win.

    kenny broke it down nicely in the OP.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • fear4freedom
    fear4freedom Posts: 920
    gimmesometruth27 wrote:
    if obama wins ohio, romney is going to have to run the table in the rest of the swing states to win.

    kenny broke it down nicely in the OP.

    BIG "IF" Good luck!
    Theres no time like the present

    A man that stands for nothing....will fall for anything!

    All people need to do more on every level!
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,942
    fear4freedom wrote:
    BIG "IF" Good luck!
    to win the electoral college you are the one who is gonna need more luck than me. this is MATH...

    but carry on...
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • Prince Of Dorkness
    Prince Of Dorkness Posts: 3,763
    edited October 2012
    fear4freedom wrote:
    Romney is up %7 now in Gallup and the enthusiasm is all in his favor....Romney is going to win this thing by way more than you expect or anticipate! WATCH!!


    Maybe you can explain why, then, Gallup is the only one that has a distance that wide between the two of them?

    And why other national polls (just as reliable ones, too) are showing the president up by 3%?

    Even Nate Silver, the most respected parser of polling data says that taking any single poll or even a handful of them on a particular day is never a good gauge of actual voter intent.

    1.jpg

    2.jpg

    It should be noted that neither of those graphs above reflect polls taken after the second debate. It'll take a while to see how that affects the numbers, if at all.

    Actually... before either side gets too excited about the apparent wild swings back and forth between candidates... watch Nate Silver's interview with Jon Stewart.

    http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-o ... view-pt--1

    It's kinda fascinating.
    Post edited by Prince Of Dorkness on
    I can't drive without Pearl Jam
  • Prince Of Dorkness
    Prince Of Dorkness Posts: 3,763
    fear4freedom wrote:
    please explain how he "pissed" off those 3 key groups. Also, the way you interpret things may not be the same as others.....


    1) Latinos: one of the less-circulated stories in the mainstream, "white" media was that along with the famous 47% comment on the "hidden camera," he suggested that he'd have a better chance to win if he were Latino. What he meant - and don't deny this because your nose will grow - was that there is no racism and in fact, racial preferential treatment among voters and that Barack Obama only won the election because he's black and that people are voting against him because he's white.

    And there's nothing that minorities hate more than a rich, entitled white guy who has had the world handed to him on a platter complaining about how unfair it is that he has it so hard.

    And now, a word for Rosie Perezon the matter... (This video is devastating to him.)

    2) African Americans: Causal racism is something that all minority people see. But when Mitt Romney aligned himself with people like Donald Trump, who gladly became the poster child for the more racist segments like the "birthers." Mitt Romney even making a joke about how "nobody ever asked for my birth certificate."

    By the way... I knew a couple of birthers who said that even though his birth certificate is real, that he's still not "natural born" because his father was from Kenya and your parents have to be American, too. Funny how they dropped that line when Mitt Romney, whose father was a Mexican citizen, got the nomination.

    3) Women: There are too many issues... I'll just list a few... shutting off their access to breast cancer screening as a by product of forcing them to carry their rapist's babies. Nominating Paul Ryan, who is on video saying that "rape is just another form of conception." Opposing equal pay for women.

    Oh, and that comment about how women need to leave work early so they can go home and clean and do the chores. :fp:

    and now a word from W. Kamu Bell. While religious people love to play dumb and stupid people love to um... well, just plain BE dumb, denying that science is real gets harder by the day and makes those who deny it's real... look dumber.

    And yes... the gay community. His quarter-million dollar donation to Proposition 8 didn't help. Or how he has spoken very disrespectfully to the GLBT community. And how he has said he'd support a constitutional amendment to ban recognition of our families and went so far as to blame gun violence on families that weren't "a mother and a father." Which pissed off a lot of single parents, too.

    So... that's how.
    I can't drive without Pearl Jam
  • RFTC
    RFTC Posts: 723
    not overly worried about gallup poll, do a lil research and see how gallups' natl polls shit the bed in 2008. guess what, gallup does not poll young people, i.e. college students, recent college grads. obama owns this base, and he will own this base in 2012.

    ya know why this base is not in ANY poll? cell phones, and multiple addresses, they are not seen or heard by pollsters but their gonna vote their ass off again this year.

    wtf you think obama won Indiana in 2008? that state is RED, but guess what, it has Purdue, U of IN, and mighty Notre Dame to pull from.

    you think Obama is just targeting campuses for the last month for no good reason?

    my hunch is this; IF obama gets the same or better turnout from swing state young americans, he wins this in the 290-300 electoral vote range.

    just my 2 cents
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  • kenny olav
    kenny olav Posts: 3,319
    For the record, I think Obama will win the popular vote, but not by much, and he will win the electoral college handily, but not my as much as he did in 2008.

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