Romney wins popular vote and Obama wins electoral college?
kenny olav
Posts: 3,319
It's definitely possible.
In national polls, Romney tends to do better against Obama. He's either in a tie with the President, or he's got a small lead.
But in important swing states like Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Obama has the lead in most polls. He's currently tied with Romney in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado.
Obama can lose in the many of the states he won in 2008, and still win the necessary 270 electoral votes to be re-elected.
For example, if Obama loses in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada and wins in Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, he will have won 271 electoral votes.
All the states listed above are states that Obama won in 2008. He also won Indiana, but the polls show that as a solid red state this year, for whatever reason.
Obama could also lose Wisconsin, but if he wins Colorado, he'll have 270 electoral votes.
We could see the kind of election result we had in 2000, just with the parties switched around this time.
In national polls, Romney tends to do better against Obama. He's either in a tie with the President, or he's got a small lead.
But in important swing states like Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Obama has the lead in most polls. He's currently tied with Romney in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado.
Obama can lose in the many of the states he won in 2008, and still win the necessary 270 electoral votes to be re-elected.
For example, if Obama loses in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada and wins in Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, he will have won 271 electoral votes.
All the states listed above are states that Obama won in 2008. He also won Indiana, but the polls show that as a solid red state this year, for whatever reason.
Obama could also lose Wisconsin, but if he wins Colorado, he'll have 270 electoral votes.
We could see the kind of election result we had in 2000, just with the parties switched around this time.
Post edited by Unknown User on
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A man that stands for nothing....will fall for anything!
All people need to do more on every level!
"Hear me, my chiefs!
I am tired; my heart is
sick and sad. From where
the sun stands I will fight
no more forever."
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"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
your analysis is funny! please explain how he "pissed" off those 3 key groups. Also, the way you interpret things may not be the same as others.....
A man that stands for nothing....will fall for anything!
All people need to do more on every level!
oh yeah....
> 5%...
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
go and visit some other forums and see..
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
why is romney pulling resources from some of the swing states to shore up support in others?
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
it is entirely possible that obama can win the popular vote.
but it is not the popular vote that matters.
gore won the popular vote yet bush was given the white house.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
kenny broke it down nicely in the OP.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
BIG "IF" Good luck!
A man that stands for nothing....will fall for anything!
All people need to do more on every level!
but carry on...
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
Maybe you can explain why, then, Gallup is the only one that has a distance that wide between the two of them?
And why other national polls (just as reliable ones, too) are showing the president up by 3%?
Even Nate Silver, the most respected parser of polling data says that taking any single poll or even a handful of them on a particular day is never a good gauge of actual voter intent.
It should be noted that neither of those graphs above reflect polls taken after the second debate. It'll take a while to see how that affects the numbers, if at all.
Actually... before either side gets too excited about the apparent wild swings back and forth between candidates... watch Nate Silver's interview with Jon Stewart.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-o ... view-pt--1
It's kinda fascinating.
1) Latinos: one of the less-circulated stories in the mainstream, "white" media was that along with the famous 47% comment on the "hidden camera," he suggested that he'd have a better chance to win if he were Latino. What he meant - and don't deny this because your nose will grow - was that there is no racism and in fact, racial preferential treatment among voters and that Barack Obama only won the election because he's black and that people are voting against him because he's white.
And there's nothing that minorities hate more than a rich, entitled white guy who has had the world handed to him on a platter complaining about how unfair it is that he has it so hard.
And now, a word for Rosie Perezon the matter... (This video is devastating to him.)
2) African Americans: Causal racism is something that all minority people see. But when Mitt Romney aligned himself with people like Donald Trump, who gladly became the poster child for the more racist segments like the "birthers." Mitt Romney even making a joke about how "nobody ever asked for my birth certificate."
By the way... I knew a couple of birthers who said that even though his birth certificate is real, that he's still not "natural born" because his father was from Kenya and your parents have to be American, too. Funny how they dropped that line when Mitt Romney, whose father was a Mexican citizen, got the nomination.
3) Women: There are too many issues... I'll just list a few... shutting off their access to breast cancer screening as a by product of forcing them to carry their rapist's babies. Nominating Paul Ryan, who is on video saying that "rape is just another form of conception." Opposing equal pay for women.
Oh, and that comment about how women need to leave work early so they can go home and clean and do the chores. :fp:
and now a word from W. Kamu Bell. While religious people love to play dumb and stupid people love to um... well, just plain BE dumb, denying that science is real gets harder by the day and makes those who deny it's real... look dumber.
And yes... the gay community. His quarter-million dollar donation to Proposition 8 didn't help. Or how he has spoken very disrespectfully to the GLBT community. And how he has said he'd support a constitutional amendment to ban recognition of our families and went so far as to blame gun violence on families that weren't "a mother and a father." Which pissed off a lot of single parents, too.
So... that's how.
ya know why this base is not in ANY poll? cell phones, and multiple addresses, they are not seen or heard by pollsters but their gonna vote their ass off again this year.
wtf you think obama won Indiana in 2008? that state is RED, but guess what, it has Purdue, U of IN, and mighty Notre Dame to pull from.
you think Obama is just targeting campuses for the last month for no good reason?
my hunch is this; IF obama gets the same or better turnout from swing state young americans, he wins this in the 290-300 electoral vote range.
just my 2 cents
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http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pol ... y-vs-obama
I would love to hear a clip of Ryan saying that...and the context of it....because taken the way you are stating it is deplorable. Since this is the only place I've heard that, I'm having trouble believing it happened as you say.
...are those who've helped us.
Right 'round the corner could be bigger than ourselves.
Here's the context of what he said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cat5SyMBSpk
His exact words were: "the method of conception doesn't change the definition of life".
I would agree that "rape is just another method of conception" sounds worse, so it's a bit unfair to say he said it that way, however he does say that regardless of the method of conception, he is against abortion.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
"Becoming a Bruce fan is like hitting puberty as a musical fan. It's inevitable." - dcfaithful
Ryan co-authored legislation to grant full personhood and rights thereof to fertilized eggs. That equals no abortion for any reason and outlaws IVF and the IUD and the morning after pill. And they wonder why the republicans have a problem with getting women voters
I agree, maybe more citizens should move to these battleground states.....I did from MD/DC to Florida. This was not my main reasons but I'm here and I will vote.
Peace
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http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la ... 9070.story
By Paul West
October 22, 2012, 7:34 a.m.
A new national poll is showing a dead heat in the presidential contest, making this an opportune time to revisit the question of whether the Nov. 6 election might produce a 269-269 electoral vote tie.
The prospect of an electoral deadlock has been around for months. It was explored here over the summer, with an explanation of why a tie would likely result in Mitt Romney becoming president. Intrade, the online prediction market, currently pegs the chances of an electoral-college tie at 5% (down from a peak of 10% earlier this month). Heading into the final two weeks of the campaign, Romney and President Obama were at 47% each in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, released Sunday night.
Of course, the White House is won in 51 separate elections, not by the national popular vote. And at this point, the outcome in 42 states and the District of Columbia seems to be pretty much locked in. That leaves just eight tossup states, where neither man has opened up a lead greater than 3 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics polling averages, to decide the election.
INTERACTIVE: Battleground states map
For an electoral deadlock to occur, Romney has to carry five of them: Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. He currently holds a tiny lead in two, Florida and Colorado. Virginia is tied. He trails by 3 points in Nevada and 2.4 in Iowa (again, these are RealClearPolitics averages).
Obama needs to carry Wisconsin, Ohio and New Hampshire. He currently has a slender edge in the first two and is behind in New Hampshire by one point.
Over the next two weeks, in other words, Obama would need to gain just over one percentage point in New Hampshire. Romney would have to pick up a little more than three points in Nevada, two and a half in Iowa and anything at all in Virginia. The remaining tossup states would have to wind up where they are leaning now.
Will it happen? Probably not.
Could it? Absolutely.
Fun Fact:
Final 2008 Gallop Poll: Obama 55% - McCain 44%
Actual Popular Vote: Obama 53% - McCain 46%
What's to make of this??? Who knows ...