Can Someone Clarify The Lottery

SPEEDY MCCREADY wrote:

your odds of landing those seats in the first 2 rows ARE 1000-1.....

And the more shows you go to, the better your chances get.

Does anyone know what the average number of seats a typical row is?

This is a question for ACCBootlegGoddess

Here you go... some math.....

MSG capacity - about 20,000 seats
10% fan club tickets (if that's what the 10C got) - about 2,000

2000 tickets = 1000 pairs

approx 42 seats in a row?

Odds of front row: 2.1%
Odds of second row: 2.1%

Then subtract out the rows 1 and 2 and 3rd to 8th row (these are based off of senority) = 336 seats

Remaining seats after 8 rows of distribution = 1664 seats = 832 pairs

Now:

Odds of 9th row: 2.5%
Odds of 10th row: 2.5%

So really if the 10% TM fan club rule applies, and you normally do not get better than row 10, you are looking at 9.2% chance of an upgrade....

Go to more shows and your odds will go up.....

Flagg wrote:

Well, I'm going to three - and will probably wind in up in row 35 or something all three times.

you are gonna end up in the 3rd balcony mens room ....behind the stage....urinal #3.....

and be happy you got that seat!!!!!!!!!

hehehehehehe...........

satansbedbugs wrote:

If I got 10c seats behind the stage , id be pissed

But they always turn around and face the back when they play Last Kiss.....

Thunderclap wrote:

And the more shows you go to, the better your chances get.

Does anyone know what the average number of seats a typical row is?

This is a question for ACCBootlegGoddess

Haha thanks Rick...but Marcus (Beerbaron) beat me to it. He is right...normally its about 42 seats, but some venues with a larger floor area have more seats. Most I've ever seen is 50...but that is VERY VERY rare. 42 is most common.

pulaski wrote:

i think you are wrong, rows 1-2 and 9-10 are random...therefore that means the people in 3-8 could possibly get randomly selected for rows 9-10, just as they could get 1-2...its only fair

See, that's what I don't get. Here is my theory on how they could do it in a fair way. Since DC is sold out I'll use them as an example:

Let's say there were a total of 800 seats allocated to the fanclub for DC. That would translate to 400 fanclub members @ two tickets each. They take those 400 fans and randomize it to get the front two rows, which would be 42 total ticket holders. They then take the remainder of the fans and seat them by seniority starting with row 3. When they get to the 9th row, they take the ones left at that point and randomize again, thereby getting rows 9 and 10. When those rows are filled up, then they take the rest of the fans and seat them starting in row 11 and/or on the sides of the stage on the upper levels.

With this theory, the only people that are getting "screwed" are the ones that have been on the front two rows at every show since 1992. There will be the occasional fan that has been in the club forever and decided to go to just one show this time around and subsequently gets put in row 3. That's still not a bad deal. I don't think, anyway.

Thunderclap wrote:

See, that's what I don't get. Here is my theory on how they could do it in a fair way. Since DC is sold out I'll use them as an example:

Let's say there were a total of 800 seats allocated to the fanclub for DC. That would translate to 400 fanclub members @ two tickets each. They take those 400 fans and randomize it to get the front two rows, which would be 42 total ticket holders. They then take the remainder of the fans and seat them by seniority starting with row 3. When they get to the 9th row, they take the ones left at that point and randomize again, thereby getting rows 9 and 10. When those rows are filled up, then they take the rest of the fans and seat them starting in row 11 and/or on the sides of the stage on the upper levels.

With this theory, the only people that are getting "screwed" are the ones that have been on the front two rows at every show since 1992. There will be the occasional fan that has been in the club forever and decided to go to just one show this time around and subsequently gets put in row 3. That's still not a bad deal. I don't think, anyway.

that makes alot of sense, but thats kind of alot of work for the guy stuffing envelopes. I was just thinking they would have their stack of chronological envelopes, show up to the venue, then randomly select some out of the stack and stuff the random rows. then do the rest chronologically

seems like that is easier, but how ever they do it, im glad their doing it....still though, random should me random and if a 22xxx member cant be randomly selected for a 9-10 row, then its not truly random

Thunderclap wrote:

See, that's what I don't get. Here is my theory on how they could do it in a fair way. Since DC is sold out I'll use them as an example:

Let's say there were a total of 800 seats allocated to the fanclub for DC. That would translate to 400 fanclub members @ two tickets each. They take those 400 fans and randomize it to get the front two rows, which would be 42 total ticket holders. They then take the remainder of the fans and seat them by seniority starting with row 3. When they get to the 9th row, they take the ones left at that point and randomize again, thereby getting rows 9 and 10. When those rows are filled up, then they take the rest of the fans and seat them starting in row 11 and/or on the sides of the stage on the upper levels.

With this theory, the only people that are getting "screwed" are the ones that have been on the front two rows at every show since 1992. There will be the occasional fan that has been in the club forever and decided to go to just one show this time around and subsequently gets put in row 3. That's still not a bad deal. I don't think, anyway.

This makes the most sense to me. Last time in Boston I had row 6. Based on the 'random selection' it could get worse for me getting bumped back to 9-10. I guess the folks in rows 1-2 every time have the same argument though....

I think I missed an aspect in my original post, so I'll try to explain it further:

Step 1: Use some sort of software to "seat" everyone chronologically based on Tenclub number.

Step 2: Draw a line between rows 8 and 9, thereby creating two separate groups.

Step 3: Take the first group, rows 1-8, and randomly pick 21 members (two seats per fan club member) and put those members in rows 1-2. The rest of the members in this group will be seated from rows 3-8 based on their seniority in the Ten club.

Step 4: Take the second group, rows 9-?, and randomly pick 21 members (two seats per fan club member) and put those members in rows 9-10. The rest of the members in this group will be seated from rows 11-? based on their seniority in the Ten club.

rasty10 wrote:

So, where do they dump everyone that didn't win the lottery?? What is the worst scenario?...

They would dump you in chronological order based on your Ten club number starting with row 3. If my theory is correct.


So what does "random" actually mean?
There are two ways they could implement the randomness:

A. Randomly pick 21 people for rows 1-2 and rows 9-10, then seat them within these two groups of rows by their Ten club number. So they would be picked at random but not seated at random.

or

B. Randomly pick 21 people for rows 1-2 and rows 9-10, then seat them within these two groups of rows randomly. So they would be picked at random and seated at random.

The way it's worded now...

Tenclub wrote:

rows 1-2 and rows 9-10 will now be RANDOM distribution. This means regardless of your member number you will have a chance of occupying seats within those random rows.

....it sounds like they would only be picked at random. It doesn't really say how you'd be seated, only that you'll be picked at random from all of the fan club members that bought tickets to that show.

Based on the answer that RockMama got from the Ten club, it would seem like they're going with a theory like the one I posted yesterday and reiterated in this post.

I don't think it would be a lot of work for anyone in particular. They would do most of it on a computer. I would imagine that there is software out there that was designed specifically for something like this. The person/people that would be stuffing the envelopes would just have to do the actual stuffing part. Everything would be lined up for them before hand. These people have been doing it for a while so I'm sure they've gotten lots of practice and can do it pretty efficiently. Besides, we're only talking about 10 (12?) shows.