Who WILL win?

ledvedderman · December 2007

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

What do you mean?

it is a FACT that only between 7 & 17% of americans turn out for primariers, depending on which state numbers you choose.

A TYPICAL is around 10%, with 7-12 being the AVERAGE range. Only highly political states like NH and CA have turnout in the higher range of 17%.

What is this mysterious "98% of the process" i am overlooking?

Are we talking about a rigged\biased electorate?

If the popular vote goes to Paul, and the unbound electorate does not "obey", there will be riots in the street.

YES, its what i see happening.

You don't see a situation where a HIGHLY MOTIVATED 12% (or more) of the population can OUTVOTE a largely apathetic 10% ?

Do you think this year will be some sort of turnaround year for REPUBLICAN primary voter turn out?

I sure as fuck don't.

But i do know Paul has support from a dissafected Republican base, all the whack jobs ya'll laugh at, moderate democrats that are anti-war, LOTS AND LOTS of independents, and ANYONE who is fearful of the economy, plus ALL YOUTH who want OUT of SS, most all "tax protestors", constitutionalist, home-school supporters, some pro-lifers (those not swooned by Huckabee), and more.

And Huckabee has who again? The people "lighting prayer sparklers"?

Pfft.
:rolleyes:

The campaigns know how many people they will have to get to the caucus and they will. Probably the most underrated side of a political campaign is the "get out the vote" effort. Big money is dropped on reminding people to go to the polls, driving people to the polls, and checking off who has voted to further harass someone who hasn't.

Paul's biggest support is among the college crowd. Guess who never turns out to vote, ESPECIALLY in primaries...college kids. That's what cost Kerry in 2004.

The way you have it in your head is not the way the system works. There is no huge revolution going on in our country that would cause "riots in the street" if Paul won the primaries but didn't get the party nomination. Hell, there wasn't even rioting in the streets when Gore had the election stolen from him.

DriftingByTheStorm · December 2007

ledvedderman wrote:

The campaigns know how many people they will have to get to the caucus and they will. Probably the most underrated side of a political campaign is the "get out the vote" effort. Big money is dropped on reminding people to go to the polls, driving people to the polls, and checking off who has voted to further harass someone who hasn't.

Paul's biggest support is among the college crowd. Guess who never turns out to vote, ESPECIALLY in primaries...college kids. That's what cost Kerry in 2004.

The way you have it in your head is not the way the system works. There is no huge revolution going on in our country that would cause "riots in the street" if Paul won the primaries but didn't get the party nomination. Hell, there wasn't even rioting in the streets when Gore had the election stolen from him.

FYI, i don't remember seeing ANYONE as worked up over Kerry OR Gore as i am seeing EVERYWHERE about Ron Paul.

Even my braindead cousin who has to ask her husband to remind her how she likes her meat cooked when we go out ("well done, honey") has decided, after only a FIVE minute conversation with me, that she is switching her vote from Hillary to Ron Paul.

Kerry, a skull and bones member, was just the LESSER OF TWO EVILS. In fact, i "threw away" my vote on Nader in that election. A lot of people didn't vote for him because it was half dozen the other, far as they could tell.

Paul is DIFFERENT and a large contingent of America is starting to see that.

I'm not trying to get in to an hour long argument about if he will win or not.

You asked in the OP, "WHO WILL WIN".
I'm giving you my OPINION.

ledvedderman · December 2007

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

FYI, i don't remember seeing ANYONE as worked up over Kerry OR Gore as i am seeing EVERYWHERE about Ron Paul.

Even my braindead cousin who has to ask her husband to remind her how she likes her meat cooked when we go out ("well done, honey") has decided, after only a FIVE minute conversation with me, that she is switching her vote from Hillary to Ron Paul.

Kerry, a skull and bones member, was just the LESSER OF TWO EVILS. In fact, i "threw away" my vote on Nader in that election. A lot of people didn't vote for him because it was half dozen the other, far as they could tell.

Paul is DIFFERENT and a large contingent of America is starting to see that.

I'm not trying to get in to an hour long argument about if he will win or not.

You asked in the OP, "WHO WILL WIN".
I'm giving you my OPINION.

I can deal with that. We'll find out in 14 days

my2hands · December 2007

ledvedderman wrote:

who do you see winning realistically

hopefully the American people

Uncle Leo · December 2007

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

DING DING DING.
We have a fucking winner!

I HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR MONTHS.

No one gives A FUCK about American Politics, except for GENERAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
SEVEN TO TEN PERCENT (TEN FUCKING PERCENT) show up for PRIMARIES.

THANKS FOR HARDENING MY POINT.

All these Name Brand Republicans just fence sitting waiting to see who to support will GIVE THE ELECTION TO RON PAUL.

80-95% of Ron Paul supporters WILL SHOW UP TO VOTE.

80-95% of the GENERAL POPULATION will NOT VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES!

Do the math!

THERE IS YOUR FUCKING PREDICTION, Ledvetterman.

I cannot dispute that you have put a lot of thought into this. You know primary statistics that I do not know. I would have guessed 5%. When I lived in Primary states, I voted every time. But now I am in a caucus state and...forget it.

Anyway, your reasoning seems reasonable. And traditionally, December polls mean shit. Anyone old enough to remember 1988 may remember Paul Tsongas was looking like the Democratic nominee for a while. And while I believe in the momentum and, in this thread, picked Paul for the top 3, I don't think he's gonna grab the nomination. Am I going to through any voting or money stats like you? No. I've got nothing but my gut (hey if GWB can run the country on his gut, I can make meaningless predictions on mine). I don't think he'll get ahead of the favorite. I think that Paul's support is vocal, but it's from a fairly small number of people. Why? Lack of media attention? Maybe somewhat. The GOP trying to keep a "boat rocker" down? Certainly. But ultimately, the tradtional GOPers, splitting their vote among the others (which will serve Paul well) will drift enough to one other candidate and show that Paul's support, while loud, is not that large.

If I am wrong, I am wrong. My reasoning is not particularly reasearched. And if you really see Paul accepting the Nomination this summer, good for you. I don't.

Thecure · January 2008

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

FYI, i don't remember seeing ANYONE as worked up over Kerry OR Gore as i am seeing EVERYWHERE about Ron Paul.

Even my braindead cousin who has to ask her husband to remind her how she likes her meat cooked when we go out ("well done, honey") has decided, after only a FIVE minute conversation with me, that she is switching her vote from Hillary to Ron Paul.

Kerry, a skull and bones member, was just the LESSER OF TWO EVILS. In fact, i "threw away" my vote on Nader in that election. A lot of people didn't vote for him because it was half dozen the other, far as they could tell.

Paul is DIFFERENT and a large contingent of America is starting to see that.

I'm not trying to get in to an hour long argument about if he will win or not.

You asked in the OP, "WHO WILL WIN".
I'm giving you my OPINION.

do you think it is wise to sell RP by saying that "braindead people are voting for him" that kinda scares me.

DriftingByTheStorm · January 2008

Thecure wrote:

do you think it is wise to sell RP by saying that "braindead people are voting for him" that kinda scares me.

That was a "the message is contagious" indicator.

Poor girl doesn't even know how she likes her meat cooked, but you tell her about ron paul for 5 minutes and she immediately changes her mind from being a staunch hillary supporter to ready to march in the Paulian National Guard.

and, in general, i'd say most of Pauls' supporters are ABOVE average intelligence.

Thecure · January 2008

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

That was a "the message is contagious" indicator.

Poor girl doesn't even know how she likes her meat cooked, but you tell her about ron paul for 5 minutes and she immediately changes her mind from being a staunch hillary supporter to ready to march in the Paulian National Guard.

and, in general, i'd say most of Pauls' supporters are ABOVE average intelligence.

for me anyone who can switch minds like that might change it back if someone come up with a message that sounds good. no one person has teh perfect way to govern, there is flaws in ever position and i want a person who will think about that stuff when it comes to voting.

i don't know most of RP supporters so i can say that they are above average intelligence, but they might be. who knows?

Who WILL win?

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