Who WILL win?
ledvedderman
Posts: 7,761
Let's see what everyones opinions on this one. We know pretty much who is supporting who, but who do you see winning realistically, let's just say in the first three key primary states, super Tuesday, party nomination, and then general election.
Dems:
Iowa: Obama
NH: Obama
SC: Edwards
Super Tuesday: Obama
Party Nomination: Obama
Reps:
Iowa: Huckabee
NH: Romney
SC: Rudy
Super Tuesday: Rudy
Party Nomination: Huckabee or Rudy
General: Obama vs. Huckabee= Obama
Obama vs. Rudy= ????
Dems:
Iowa: Obama
NH: Obama
SC: Edwards
Super Tuesday: Obama
Party Nomination: Obama
Reps:
Iowa: Huckabee
NH: Romney
SC: Rudy
Super Tuesday: Rudy
Party Nomination: Huckabee or Rudy
General: Obama vs. Huckabee= Obama
Obama vs. Rudy= ????
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Comments
GOP: I agree with your Iowa and NH predictions, but would expect Romney to win SC and Super T. I think it is a three horse race between Romney, Huckabee and (yes, I am saying it) Paul.
Prediction:
Romney (47 states) over Clinton (3 states and DC)
I agree with your Dem predictions. The Republicans though I don't see Rudy winning the nomination. It's either going to be Romney or Huckabee. It pains me to say that because I want Ron paul to win so bad but I'm being realistic and I know he only has a long shot.
The only thing that makes me think Rude will get the nomination is because he has concentrated so much of his campaign on the later primaries and Tsunami Tuesday. I think if he finishes in the top three in the early states and then has a really strong showing on TT it is his.
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God I hope you are wrong.
She can't win the general...I guarantee it. When automatically 50% of the country says that they wouldn't vote for you and when only 60% of your own party would vote for you...that's a real problem.
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True but I think Guiliani doesn't stand a chance in way too many states. Even on Super Tuesday he will not come in first.
I'll predict Edwards against Romney.
#1 i agree, and #2 i agree.
good to see you're back hhkc.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
I don't know with the republican side... anything can happen.... Rudy is taking a hit lately, so anyone he looses will probably go to McCain or Romney, instead of Huckabee...
For Dems, I think Obama will end up with the nomination... Hilary has been at this so long and her negative polling numbers really aren't improving.
was like a picture
of a sunny day
“We can complain because rose bushes have thorns, or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses.”
― Abraham Lincoln
- Soren Aabye Kierkegaard (1813-1855)
If you haven't got anything nice to say about anybody, come sit next to me."
- Alice Roosevelt Longworth (1884-1980)
i would bet on it as well. i think the people want a change and are willing to vote for anything with a D behind the name in the general so long as they believe that they may not get anoter 4 years of the same crap we have had the last 8 years. i just think enough people have abandoned the GOP that they will not win a general election no matter who they nominate.
i think it will come down to a choice of not voting FOR your candidate, but rather voting AGAINST the other one.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
Looks like you and I are both equally pessimistic
how can anyone say Huckabee has the same level of support as Paul?
FUCK THE POLLS.
A guy posted in the Paul forums two days ago,
said he got a phone poll call ... he said it was CLEARLY TARGETED, as he was a past Republican primary voter ...
HE SAID THE FOLLOWING:
The poll offered SIX choices from the touch tone:
PRESS BUTTONS 1-6 FOR THE FOLLOWING
1. Giuliani
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Huckabee
5. Hunter
6. OTHER
NOTE: He said that the message CLEARLY stated: "Pressing 6 will cast a vote for 'other', if you press 6, we will consider this indication that you no longer wish to participate in our polls. Pressing 6 will remove you from our polling records, and this number will not be dialed in any future polls."
UH?
WHAT THE FUCK?
So.
Answer the question.
BTW, did anyone bother to go look at the Huckabee forum that Roland posted.
Did you happen to notice that there are FIVE THOUSAND posts as opposed to FIFTY THOUSAND on the Paul forums.
The front page of the MAIN huckabee forum, the FRONT page, has NO posts with more than 215 reads save for 3 ... one post with 10000 views about "if someone votes for any of the other candidates, are they going to hell?" and TWO threads with 800-1200 views BOTH with "RON PAUL" in the subject.
???
WHERE IS THE REAL SUPPORT ???
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Fundraising indicates some support, but is not a 1 to 1 relationship with Support. Paul Supporters are already very sound on who their #1 is. They view their movement as grassroots and recognize that they have an uphill battle. Neo-Con Republicans may not yet know who they are supporting. They may be weighing between Mitt, Rudy, et. al and therefore would probably not give money to a campaign. Many "straight ticket" people are probably just waiting to see who wins and provide support to whoever runs against the "liberal" Democrat.
I picked Paul for the top 3 in the GOP and I believe it. But you said "based on fundraising how can anyone say Huckabee has the same level of support as Paul?" I agree with your complaints that your boy is being overlooked by the media, but using fundraising is just as flawed as using polls. The reason he's raised more money than, say Huckabee, is because Huckabee supports do not feel that sense of desparation. They don't feel the need to have to hit it hard in the primaries. And (at the risk of oversimplifying), there are probably two kinds of people with a direct interest in this GOP race: Those who have a slight preference to one of the mainstream candidates, but will go with "whoever" and Paul supporters. The former are spread to thin to donate, while the latter know right where to put their dough.
More obsessive supporters who post more on the Paul threads does not mean more TOTAL supporters.
So who do you think will win? Quit bitching about how you think your candidate is getting the shaft and join the discussion of making predictions.
http://www.reverbnation.com/brianzilm
DING DING DING.
We have a fucking winner!
I HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR MONTHS.
No one gives A FUCK about American Politics, except for GENERAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
SEVEN TO TEN PERCENT (TEN FUCKING PERCENT) show up for PRIMARIES.
THANKS FOR HARDENING MY POINT.
All these Name Brand Republicans just fence sitting waiting to see who to support will GIVE THE ELECTION TO RON PAUL.
80-95% of Ron Paul supporters WILL SHOW UP TO VOTE.
80-95% of the GENERAL POPULATION will NOT VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES!
Do the math!
THERE IS YOUR FUCKING PREDICTION, Ledvetterman.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Dude, I enjoy your optimism, but is that what you really see happening? I wish it were that simple, but you are leaving out about 98% of the process that is "general primary day"
http://www.reverbnation.com/brianzilm
What do you mean?
it is a FACT that only between 7 & 17% of americans turn out for primariers, depending on which state numbers you choose.
A TYPICAL is around 10%, with 7-12 being the AVERAGE range. Only highly political states like NH and CA have turnout in the higher range of 17%.
What is this mysterious "98% of the process" i am overlooking?
Are we talking about a rigged\biased electorate?
If the popular vote goes to Paul, and the unbound electorate does not "obey", there will be riots in the street.
YES, its what i see happening.
You don't see a situation where a HIGHLY MOTIVATED 12% (or more) of the population can OUTVOTE a largely apathetic 10% ?
Do you think this year will be some sort of turnaround year for REPUBLICAN primary voter turn out?
I sure as fuck don't.
But i do know Paul has support from a dissafected Republican base, all the whack jobs ya'll laugh at, moderate democrats that are anti-war, LOTS AND LOTS of independents, and ANYONE who is fearful of the economy, plus ALL YOUTH who want OUT of SS, most all "tax protestors", constitutionalist, home-school supporters, some pro-lifers (those not swooned by Huckabee), and more.
And Huckabee has who again? The people "lighting prayer sparklers"?
Pfft.
:rolleyes:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
The campaigns know how many people they will have to get to the caucus and they will. Probably the most underrated side of a political campaign is the "get out the vote" effort. Big money is dropped on reminding people to go to the polls, driving people to the polls, and checking off who has voted to further harass someone who hasn't.
Paul's biggest support is among the college crowd. Guess who never turns out to vote, ESPECIALLY in primaries...college kids. That's what cost Kerry in 2004.
The way you have it in your head is not the way the system works. There is no huge revolution going on in our country that would cause "riots in the street" if Paul won the primaries but didn't get the party nomination. Hell, there wasn't even rioting in the streets when Gore had the election stolen from him.
http://www.reverbnation.com/brianzilm
FYI, i don't remember seeing ANYONE as worked up over Kerry OR Gore as i am seeing EVERYWHERE about Ron Paul.
Even my braindead cousin who has to ask her husband to remind her how she likes her meat cooked when we go out ("well done, honey") has decided, after only a FIVE minute conversation with me, that she is switching her vote from Hillary to Ron Paul.
Kerry, a skull and bones member, was just the LESSER OF TWO EVILS. In fact, i "threw away" my vote on Nader in that election. A lot of people didn't vote for him because it was half dozen the other, far as they could tell.
Paul is DIFFERENT and a large contingent of America is starting to see that.
I'm not trying to get in to an hour long argument about if he will win or not.
You asked in the OP, "WHO WILL WIN".
I'm giving you my OPINION.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
I can deal with that. We'll find out in 14 days
http://www.reverbnation.com/brianzilm
hopefully the American people
I cannot dispute that you have put a lot of thought into this. You know primary statistics that I do not know. I would have guessed 5%. When I lived in Primary states, I voted every time. But now I am in a caucus state and...forget it.
Anyway, your reasoning seems reasonable. And traditionally, December polls mean shit. Anyone old enough to remember 1988 may remember Paul Tsongas was looking like the Democratic nominee for a while. And while I believe in the momentum and, in this thread, picked Paul for the top 3, I don't think he's gonna grab the nomination. Am I going to through any voting or money stats like you? No. I've got nothing but my gut (hey if GWB can run the country on his gut, I can make meaningless predictions on mine). I don't think he'll get ahead of the favorite. I think that Paul's support is vocal, but it's from a fairly small number of people. Why? Lack of media attention? Maybe somewhat. The GOP trying to keep a "boat rocker" down? Certainly. But ultimately, the tradtional GOPers, splitting their vote among the others (which will serve Paul well) will drift enough to one other candidate and show that Paul's support, while loud, is not that large.
If I am wrong, I am wrong. My reasoning is not particularly reasearched. And if you really see Paul accepting the Nomination this summer, good for you. I don't.
do you think it is wise to sell RP by saying that "braindead people are voting for him" that kinda scares me.
- Soren Aabye Kierkegaard (1813-1855)
If you haven't got anything nice to say about anybody, come sit next to me."
- Alice Roosevelt Longworth (1884-1980)
That was a "the message is contagious" indicator.
Poor girl doesn't even know how she likes her meat cooked, but you tell her about ron paul for 5 minutes and she immediately changes her mind from being a staunch hillary supporter to ready to march in the Paulian National Guard.
and, in general, i'd say most of Pauls' supporters are ABOVE average intelligence.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
for me anyone who can switch minds like that might change it back if someone come up with a message that sounds good. no one person has teh perfect way to govern, there is flaws in ever position and i want a person who will think about that stuff when it comes to voting.
i don't know most of RP supporters so i can say that they are above average intelligence, but they might be. who knows?
- Soren Aabye Kierkegaard (1813-1855)
If you haven't got anything nice to say about anybody, come sit next to me."
- Alice Roosevelt Longworth (1884-1980)