Who WILL win?

ledvedderman

Let's see what everyones opinions on this one. We know pretty much who is supporting who, but who do you see winning realistically, let's just say in the first three key primary states, super Tuesday, party nomination, and then general election.

Dems:
Iowa: Obama
NH: Obama
SC: Edwards
Super Tuesday: Obama
Party Nomination: Obama

Reps:
Iowa: Huckabee
NH: Romney
SC: Rudy
Super Tuesday: Rudy
Party Nomination: Huckabee or Rudy

General: Obama vs. Huckabee= Obama
Obama vs. Rudy= ????

Uncle Leo

Dems: Who cares. It's a race for second.

GOP: I agree with your Iowa and NH predictions, but would expect Romney to win SC and Super T. I think it is a three horse race between Romney, Huckabee and (yes, I am saying it) Paul.

Prediction:

Romney (47 states) over Clinton (3 states and DC)

mammasan

ledvedderman wrote:

Let's see what everyones opinions on this one. We know pretty much who is supporting who, but who do you see winning realistically, let's just say in the first three key primary states, super Tuesday, party nomination, and then general election.

Dems:
Iowa: Obama
NH: Obama
SC: Edwards
Super Tuesday: Obama
Party Nomination: Obama

Reps:
Iowa: Huckabee
NH: Romney
SC: Rudy
Super Tuesday: Rudy
Party Nomination: Huckabee or Rudy

General: Obama vs. Huckabee= Obama
Obama vs. Rudy= ????

I agree with your Dem predictions. The Republicans though I don't see Rudy winning the nomination. It's either going to be Romney or Huckabee. It pains me to say that because I want Ron paul to win so bad but I'm being realistic and I know he only has a long shot.

ledvedderman

mammasan wrote:

I agree with your Dem predictions. The Republicans though I don't see Rudy winning the nomination. It's either going to be Romney or Huckabee. It pains me to say that because I want Ron paul to win so bad but I'm being realistic and I know he only has a long shot.

The only thing that makes me think Rude will get the nomination is because he has concentrated so much of his campaign on the later primaries and Tsunami Tuesday. I think if he finishes in the top three in the early states and then has a really strong showing on TT it is his.

hailhailkc

Hillary Clinton will be our next President. I guarantee it.

mammasan

hailhailkc wrote:

Hillary Clinton will be our next President. I guarantee it.

God I hope you are wrong.

ledvedderman

hailhailkc wrote:

Hillary Clinton will be our next President. I guarantee it.

She can't win the general...I guarantee it. When automatically 50% of the country says that they wouldn't vote for you and when only 60% of your own party would vote for you...that's a real problem.

mammasan

ledvedderman wrote:

The only thing that makes me think Rude will get the nomination is because he has concentrated so much of his campaign on the later primaries and Tsunami Tuesday. I think if he finishes in the top three in the early states and then has a really strong showing on TT it is his.

True but I think Guiliani doesn't stand a chance in way too many states. Even on Super Tuesday he will not come in first.

WMA

I'd bet that any Democrat will win over any of the top running Republicans as things are now.

I'll predict Edwards against Romney.

gimmesometruth27

hailhailkc wrote:

Hillary Clinton will be our next President. I guarantee it.

mammasan wrote:

God I hope you are wrong.

#1 i agree, and #2 i agree.

good to see you're back hhkc.

blackredyellow

Unless some bombshell drops about Huckabee, I think that he might actually get the nomination.


I don't know with the republican side... anything can happen.... Rudy is taking a hit lately, so anyone he looses will probably go to McCain or Romney, instead of Huckabee...

For Dems, I think Obama will end up with the nomination... Hilary has been at this so long and her negative polling numbers really aren't improving.

Thecure

it all depends. i still like McCain but to be realistic i say Mitt vs obama with sadly Mitt winning.

gimmesometruth27

WMA wrote:

I'd bet that any Democrat will win over any of the top running Republicans as things are now.

i would bet on it as well. i think the people want a change and are willing to vote for anything with a D behind the name in the general so long as they believe that they may not get anoter 4 years of the same crap we have had the last 8 years. i just think enough people have abandoned the GOP that they will not win a general election no matter who they nominate.

i think it will come down to a choice of not voting FOR your candidate, but rather voting AGAINST the other one.

Uncle Leo

hailhailkc wrote:

Hillary Clinton will be our next President. I guarantee it.

Looks like you and I are both equally pessimistic

DriftingByTheStorm

based on fundraising,
how can anyone say Huckabee has the same level of support as Paul?

FUCK THE POLLS.
A guy posted in the Paul forums two days ago,
said he got a phone poll call ... he said it was CLEARLY TARGETED, as he was a past Republican primary voter ...

HE SAID THE FOLLOWING:

The poll offered SIX choices from the touch tone:
PRESS BUTTONS 1-6 FOR THE FOLLOWING
1. Giuliani
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Huckabee
5. Hunter
6. OTHER

NOTE: He said that the message CLEARLY stated: "Pressing 6 will cast a vote for 'other', if you press 6, we will consider this indication that you no longer wish to participate in our polls. Pressing 6 will remove you from our polling records, and this number will not be dialed in any future polls."

UH?
WHAT THE FUCK?

So.
Answer the question.

BTW, did anyone bother to go look at the Huckabee forum that Roland posted.

Did you happen to notice that there are FIVE THOUSAND posts as opposed to FIFTY THOUSAND on the Paul forums.

The front page of the MAIN huckabee forum, the FRONT page, has NO posts with more than 215 reads save for 3 ... one post with 10000 views about "if someone votes for any of the other candidates, are they going to hell?" and TWO threads with 800-1200 views BOTH with "RON PAUL" in the subject.

???
WHERE IS THE REAL SUPPORT ???

Uncle Leo

(Edit: Should have quoted Drifting from post 15)


Fundraising indicates some support, but is not a 1 to 1 relationship with Support. Paul Supporters are already very sound on who their #1 is. They view their movement as grassroots and recognize that they have an uphill battle. Neo-Con Republicans may not yet know who they are supporting. They may be weighing between Mitt, Rudy, et. al and therefore would probably not give money to a campaign. Many "straight ticket" people are probably just waiting to see who wins and provide support to whoever runs against the "liberal" Democrat.

I picked Paul for the top 3 in the GOP and I believe it. But you said "based on fundraising how can anyone say Huckabee has the same level of support as Paul?" I agree with your complaints that your boy is being overlooked by the media, but using fundraising is just as flawed as using polls. The reason he's raised more money than, say Huckabee, is because Huckabee supports do not feel that sense of desparation. They don't feel the need to have to hit it hard in the primaries. And (at the risk of oversimplifying), there are probably two kinds of people with a direct interest in this GOP race: Those who have a slight preference to one of the mainstream candidates, but will go with "whoever" and Paul supporters. The former are spread to thin to donate, while the latter know right where to put their dough.

More obsessive supporters who post more on the Paul threads does not mean more TOTAL supporters.

ledvedderman

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

based on fundraising,
how can anyone say Huckabee has the same level of support as Paul?

FUCK THE POLLS.
A guy posted in the Paul forums two days ago,
said he got a phone poll call ... he said it was CLEARLY TARGETED, as he was a past Republican primary voter ...

HE SAID THE FOLLOWING:

The poll offered SIX choices from the touch tone:
PRESS BUTTONS 1-6 FOR THE FOLLOWING
1. Giuliani
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Huckabee
5. Hunter
6. OTHER

NOTE: He said that the message CLEARLY stated: "Pressing 6 will cast a vote for 'other', if you press 6, we will consider this indication that you no longer wish to participate in our polls. Pressing 6 will remove you from our polling records, and this number will not be dialed in any future polls."

UH?
WHAT THE FUCK?

So.
Answer the question.

BTW, did anyone bother to go look at the Huckabee forum that Roland posted.

Did you happen to notice that there are FIVE THOUSAND posts as opposed to FIFTY THOUSAND on the Paul forums.

The front page of the MAIN huckabee forum, the FRONT page, has NO posts with more than 215 reads save for 3 ... one post with 10000 views about "if someone votes for any of the other candidates, are they going to hell?" and TWO threads with 800-1200 views BOTH with "RON PAUL" in the subject.

???
WHERE IS THE REAL SUPPORT ???

So who do you think will win? Quit bitching about how you think your candidate is getting the shaft and join the discussion of making predictions.

gabers

It's so hard to say right now. Both Huckabee and Obama have picked up quite a bit of momentum, but it really is too early to tell. So much can happen. Of the candidates with a reasonable chance to win I'd like to see Edwards get the nod, but I've already seen a possible scandal involving an alleged affair with him. If it's true, that's probably enough to keep him from getting elected. My guess is Clinton vs. Romney with Romney winning the general election. Ech.

DriftingByTheStorm

Uncle Leo wrote:

Many "straight ticket" people are probably just waiting to see who wins and provide support to whoever runs against the "liberal" Democrat.

[...] And (at the risk of oversimplifying), there are probably two kinds of people with a direct interest in this GOP race: Those who have a slight preference to one of the mainstream candidates, but will go with "whoever" and Paul supporters. The former are spread to thin to donate, while the latter know right where to put their dough.

More obsessive supporters who post more on the Paul threads does not mean more TOTAL supporters.

DING DING DING.
We have a fucking winner!

I HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR MONTHS.

No one gives A FUCK about American Politics, except for GENERAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
SEVEN TO TEN PERCENT (TEN FUCKING PERCENT) show up for PRIMARIES.

THANKS FOR HARDENING MY POINT.

All these Name Brand Republicans just fence sitting waiting to see who to support will GIVE THE ELECTION TO RON PAUL.

80-95% of Ron Paul supporters WILL SHOW UP TO VOTE.

80-95% of the GENERAL POPULATION will NOT VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES!

Do the math!

THERE IS YOUR FUCKING PREDICTION, Ledvetterman.

ledvedderman

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

DING DING DING.
We have a fucking winner!

I HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR MONTHS.

No one gives A FUCK about American Politics, except for GENERAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
SEVEN TO TEN PERCENT (TEN FUCKING PERCENT) show up for PRIMARIES.

THANKS FOR HARDENING MY POINT.

All these Name Brand Republicans just fence sitting waiting to see who to support will GIVE THE ELECTION TO RON PAUL.

80-95% of Ron Paul supporters WILL SHOW UP TO VOTE.

80-95% of the GENERAL POPULATION will NOT VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES!

Do the math!

THERE IS YOUR FUCKING PREDICTION, Ledvetterman.

Dude, I enjoy your optimism, but is that what you really see happening? I wish it were that simple, but you are leaving out about 98% of the process that is "general primary day"

DriftingByTheStorm

ledvedderman wrote:

Dude, I enjoy your optimism, but is that what you really see happening? I wish it were that simple, but you are leaving out about 98% of the process that is "general primary day"

What do you mean?

it is a FACT that only between 7 & 17% of americans turn out for primariers, depending on which state numbers you choose.

A TYPICAL is around 10%, with 7-12 being the AVERAGE range. Only highly political states like NH and CA have turnout in the higher range of 17%.

What is this mysterious "98% of the process" i am overlooking?

Are we talking about a rigged\biased electorate?

If the popular vote goes to Paul, and the unbound electorate does not "obey", there will be riots in the street.

YES, its what i see happening.

You don't see a situation where a HIGHLY MOTIVATED 12% (or more) of the population can OUTVOTE a largely apathetic 10% ?

Do you think this year will be some sort of turnaround year for REPUBLICAN primary voter turn out?

I sure as fuck don't.

But i do know Paul has support from a dissafected Republican base, all the whack jobs ya'll laugh at, moderate democrats that are anti-war, LOTS AND LOTS of independents, and ANYONE who is fearful of the economy, plus ALL YOUTH who want OUT of SS, most all "tax protestors", constitutionalist, home-school supporters, some pro-lifers (those not swooned by Huckabee), and more.

And Huckabee has who again? The people "lighting prayer sparklers"?

Pfft.
:rolleyes: