Oil All Time High. Gold All Time High. Dollar? Eh. Ok. Not the Dollar.

jlew24asu wrote:

yes there are some negative issues surrounding our economy but you seem to ignore the good. the dollar will eventually rebound. oil. yea thats a problem. we need alternatives and fast.

100.03!
FIRST $100 FLOOR TRADE HAS BEEN EXECUTED, along with GLOBEX!
ITS UP THERE AND STAYING!


What is the good news, Jlew?
Factory orders up?
Thats christmas talking, remember.

Dollar going to rebound?
Really, how is that going to happen with every other day bringing an announcement like "THe fed adds 30 billion in temporary reserves" or "dollar auction results" or "lowers overnight rates", "temporarily extends discount window" etc?

I hear you.
The ECONOMY MAY rebound here, (though i doubt it), but the DOLLAR IS DOWN!

You can NOT have a rebounding dollar with continued and merciless rate cutting and inflation.

The fed has added WELL over 200billion in the last few months ... and that will continue ... and so will the decline of the dollar.

How do you expect it to "rebound", if dollar value is inversely related to issuance of currency and credit? And that issuance is staunchly on the rise???

jlew24asu wrote:

why are you smiling? thats not a good thing

soblame good news on "o its just christmas" the number could have easily been negative. something I'm sure you predicted.

when this war is over and a new administration is in place. we need different policies.

so you think the economy is never going to rebound? never? times have been ALOT worse then they are now and we somehow managed to survive. enjoy drinking your half empty glass of water

I don't know why i'm smiling.
I'm jacked up on coffee, man!

Yes, i called that Fatory Orders number being up "unexpectedly" ... seriously, you don't think orders for goods are going to rise over previoulsy sagging numbers when it comes to DECEMBER and particularly when retailers were slashing prices and offering sales everywhere? Duh! I'm not saying it was certain, but certainly more probable than a drop on demand from the factory over christmas.

I don't know what "new policies" means, but you aren't going to get the Fed to stop adding money when that is what it is designed to do, and what the market keeps begging for. Junkies scream for more dope, does that mean it is what they need? Hell, they even go through violent withdrawal, does that mean they need to stay hooked? Besides, the fed is 100% independent, and the congress has ZERO power to regulate. :( And even if it did, it would just add to the bullshit factor. More regulation of bad policy is still bad policy.

Yes, of course i think the market will rebound someday.
But it may not be anyday soon. And if by rebound we are talking about something like we saw between mid Nov and Mid Dec where "no news" was "good news" and people got all happy-dappy, and the long-onlys decided to run her up regardless of the ground truth, then sure. That could happen. But the next time we get a bad housing number or whathaveyou, it will just go right in the tubes again.

No, i don't see much growth on the horizon for the broader economy in 08. Like i said, even the analysts are pretty uniform in calling for 3% growth ... and i think that will be a pretty muddy number. You will see growth in hedge funds and oil and gold firms and whathaveyou ... but very little growth in anything of real benefit to the people of america. Maybe Apple goes up some this year. Maybe a select few highend retailers do well.

But, no, i am very bearish on this economy in the broader sense. VERY bearish.
And the possibility of serious economic peril in the face of an increasingly weak dollar is VERY REAL, not just "fearmongering". The dollar is down. The trend is down. The trend is gaining speed, and it is at an all time low. If it continues for another couple of months, we could be really really fucked.
:(