What are your odds of getting Rows 1-2 and 9-10 @ Camden? Look inside

jbalicki10jbalicki10 Posts: 517
edited March 2008 in The Porch
What are your odds of getting Rows 1-2 and 9-10 @ Camden?

Well I figured out those odds:

Susquehanna Bank Center
28,000 Capacity

10 percent goes to 10 club: 2,800 tickets
1,400 lucky members purchased pairs of tickets

1st 2 rows in the Pit: (8 rows)
100 seats
50 members will be selected

Now for Rows 9 - 10 I am selecting only center. There are approximately 40 seats in the row.
80 seats total
40 members will be selected

Estimated Grand Totals:
90 members will be chosen out of 1,400.
Your odds to land center 1-2 or 9-10: %6.4285
Your odds to land center 9-10: %2.8571
Your odds to land center 1-2: %3.5714

I like the odds in getting 1-2 better than 9-10!!!

====
Updated:
Susquehanna Bank Center
25,000 Capacity

10 percent goes to 10 club: 2,500 tickets
1,250 lucky members purchased pairs of tickets

1st row of pit = 20 seats (estimated) (10 members)
2nd row of pit = 36 (estimated)
56 seats

28 members will be selected

Now for Rows 9 - 10 I am selecting only center. There are approximately 40 seats in the row.
80 seats total (estimated)

40 members will be selected

Estimated Grand Totals:
68 members will be chosen out of 1,250.
Your odds to land center 1-2 or 9-10: %5.44
Your odds to land center 9-10: %3.2
Your odds to land center 1-2: %2.24
Post edited by Unknown User on

Comments

  • HermanBloomHermanBloom Posts: 1,764
    Wow thanks Einstein
    SLC 11/2/95, Park City 6/21/98, Boise 11/3/00, Seattle 12/9/02, Vancouver 5/30/03, Gorge 9/1/05, Vancouver 9/2/05, Gorge 7/22/06, Gorge 7/23/06, Camden I 6/19/08, MSG I 6/24/08, MSG II 6/25/08, Hartford 6/27/08, Mansfield II 6/30/08; Eddie Albany 6/8/09, 6/9/09; Philly 10/30/09, 10/31/09; Boston 5/17/10
    I thought the world...Turns out the world thought me
  • FiveB247xFiveB247x Posts: 2,330
    It's not odds - it goes by Seniority.
    CONservative governMENt

    Our government is the potent, the omnipresent teacher. For good or for ill, it teaches the whole people by its example. Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy. - Louis Brandeis
  • jbalicki10jbalicki10 Posts: 517
    FiveB247x wrote:
    It's not odds - it goes by Seniority.

    Rows 1-2 and 9-10 are picked by random this year.
  • Who said that math would never come in handy. Can you save me the trouble by calculating the odds for Mansfield? :)
    "I'll end up alone like I began..."

    "You need the patience of like a National Geographic photographer sitting underneath the bush in a tent, trying to get a picture of zebras fucking or something for the first time." -Eddie Vedder
  • jbalicki10 wrote:
    What are your odds of getting Rows 1-2 and 9-10 @ Camden?

    Well I figured out those odds:

    Susquehanna Bank Center
    28,000 Capacity

    10 percent goes to 10 club: 2,800 tickets
    1,400 lucky members purchased pairs of tickets

    1st 2 rows in the Pit: (8 rows)
    100 seats
    50 members will be selected

    Now for Rows 9 - 10 I am selecting only center. There are approximately 40 seats in the row.
    80 seats total
    40 members will be selected

    Estimated Grand Totals:
    90 members will be chosen out of 1,400.
    Your odds to land center 1-2 or 9-10: %6.4285
    Your odds to land center 9-10: %2.8571
    Your odds to land center 1-2: %3.5714

    I like the odds in getting 1-2 better than 9-10!!!

    Row 1 is only about 20 seats, don't ask me why it just is
  • leedog0leedog0 Posts: 152
    jbalicki10 wrote:
    What are your odds of getting Rows 1-2 and 9-10 @ Camden?

    Well I figured out those odds:

    Susquehanna Bank Center
    28,000 Capacity

    10 percent goes to 10 club: 2,800 tickets
    1,400 lucky members purchased pairs of tickets

    1st 2 rows in the Pit: (8 rows)
    100 seats
    50 members will be selected

    Now for Rows 9 - 10 I am selecting only center. There are approximately 40 seats in the row.
    80 seats total
    40 members will be selected

    Estimated Grand Totals:
    90 members will be chosen out of 1,400.
    Your odds to land center 1-2 or 9-10: %6.4285
    Your odds to land center 9-10: %2.8571
    Your odds to land center 1-2: %3.5714

    I like the odds in getting 1-2 better than 9-10!!!

    I don't think you can take into account the lawn seats in that number. I think you count only the seats in the pavilion. I don't know how many seats are in the pavilion, but ten club seats won't be on the lawn.

    Correct?
    8/26/98 - 9/2/00 - 4/28/03 - 7/5/03 - 7/6/03 - 10/3/05 - 5/22/06 - 5/27/06 - 5/28/06 - 6/1/06 - 6/3/06 - 6/24/06 - 7/7/06 - 7/9/06 - 7/10/06 - 8/5/07 - 6/19/08 - 6/20/08 - 6/22/08 - 6/24/08 - 6/25/08 - 8/21/09 - 8/23/09 - 8/24/09 - 10/27/09 - 10/28/09 - 10/30/09 - 10/31/09 - 5/6/10 - 5/7/10 - 5/9/10 - 5/20/10 - 5/21/10 - 9/3/11 - 9/4/11 - 9/2/12 - 7/19/13 - 10/11/13 - 10/18/13 - 10/19/13 - 10/21/13 - 10/22/13 - 4/28/16 - 4/29/16 - 8/20/18 - 4/7/18
    Ed Ved Solo:
    4-10-08 / 4-12-08 / 4-13-08 / 8-16-08 / 6-11-09 / 6-12-09 / 6-14-09 / 6-25-11
    It Makes Much More Sense.........To Live in the Present Tense.
  • Solat13Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    Okum wrote:
    Row 1 is only about 20 seats, don't ask me why it just is

    Yep, I noticed that as well in 2006. Also the 2nd row isn't as long as rows 3-8 either.

    The other thing is capacity is 25,000 (7,000 seated - 18,000 lawn) .
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • jbalicki10jbalicki10 Posts: 517
    I going to double check my stats. I will repost the updated version soon...
  • jbalicki10jbalicki10 Posts: 517
    Update:
    Susquehanna Bank Center
    25,000 Capacity

    10 percent goes to 10 club: 2,500 tickets
    1,250 lucky members purchased pairs of tickets

    1st row of pit = 20 seats (estimated) (10 members)
    2nd row of pit = 36 (estimated)
    56 seats

    28 members will be selected

    Now for Rows 9 - 10 I am selecting only center. There are approximately 40 seats in the row.
    80 seats total (estimated)

    40 members will be selected

    Estimated Grand Totals:
    68 members will be chosen out of 1,250.
    Your odds to land center 1-2 or 9-10: %5.44
    Your odds to land center 9-10: %3.2
    Your odds to land center 1-2: %2.24
  • Is ten percent a real number, or did you make that up? How do you know how many tickets are allotted to the ten club?

    Is there any place in the ten club where the information on membership demographics is available?
    Thank you for sharing this journey.
  • Mrs.Vedder78Mrs.Vedder78 Posts: 4,585
    FiveB247x wrote:
    It's not odds - it goes by Seniority.


    not for rows 1,2,9 and 10, its not.
    Those rows are just plain luck this year.
    "Without the album covers, where do you clean your pot?" - EV
  • PegasusPegasus Posts: 3,754
    jbalicki10 wrote:
    What are your odds of getting Rows 1-2 and 9-10 @ Camden?

    Well I figured out those odds:

    Susquehanna Bank Center
    28,000 Capacity

    10 percent goes to 10 club: 2,800 tickets
    1,400 lucky members purchased pairs of tickets

    1st 2 rows in the Pit: (8 rows)
    100 seats
    50 members will be selected

    Now for Rows 9 - 10 I am selecting only center. There are approximately 40 seats in the row.
    80 seats total
    40 members will be selected

    Estimated Grand Totals:
    90 members will be chosen out of 1,400.
    Your odds to land center 1-2 or 9-10: %6.4285
    Your odds to land center 9-10: %2.8571
    Your odds to land center 1-2: %3.5714

    I like the odds in getting 1-2 better than 9-10!!!

    ====
    Updated:
    Susquehanna Bank Center
    25,000 Capacity

    10 percent goes to 10 club: 2,500 tickets
    1,250 lucky members purchased pairs of tickets

    1st row of pit = 20 seats (estimated) (10 members)
    2nd row of pit = 36 (estimated)
    56 seats

    28 members will be selected

    Now for Rows 9 - 10 I am selecting only center. There are approximately 40 seats in the row.
    80 seats total (estimated)

    40 members will be selected

    Estimated Grand Totals:
    68 members will be chosen out of 1,250.
    Your odds to land center 1-2 or 9-10: %5.44
    Your odds to land center 9-10: %3.2
    Your odds to land center 1-2: %2.24
    you've left an important element out of those calculations:
    if your seniority is such you'll seat in rows 3-8, you have the same chance of 1-2, but 0 one of 9-10.
    and so the chances for people that would not seat in 3-8 are higher to land 9-10 than you predicted since there's all the people in 3-8 not competing for those.

    I really can't be bothered doing the maths though..
  • This is 1 thing I havent really considered, if it happens it happens.
    Some people have religion I have Pearl Jam.


    no more shows
  • EvolverEvolver Posts: 525
    of course all this is also assuming that the venue and Ticketmaster actually alotted ALL of the those seats in question to 10C. The way I see it the probably gave most, but not all of those seats to 10C, with at LEAST a few being set aside for VIPs, contests, etc, which is general practice with every show, regardless of the artist. But hey its better than nothing!
  • jbalicki10jbalicki10 Posts: 517
    My odds are totally incorrect. Ticketmaster has given more than 10 percent of the venue to 10c for this show. It is an unknown ticket amount. I can only guesstimate your odds. I'd say about 3.5 percent chance of winning rows 1-2-9and10.
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