MLB: On The Current Pace Homeruns Will Be Down By a 1000 This Year

g under p

Is there any wonder why the RAYS and the MARLINS are in first place? This I believe is the effect of the Mitchell Report and how players are scared of being caught for using steriods.

Homeruns were down 500 last year and it's worse this year. Power teams like the Yankees are having a hard time and that's why teams that play small ball are having success at this time.

Is this better for baseball with more parity? Even the Orioles are having success go figure.

Peace

markymark550

Interesting you should mention this. I heard Mike and Mike talk about this on their show today and thought about posting it, but figured not many people would really care. To clarify, the current pace is to end the year with 1000 less home runs than in 2006.

I honestly can't say that I think this is a bad thing for the game itself. I don't know 100% for sure, but I do think this pace is an effect of the Mitchell Report. Fewer home runs hit will make hitting one more valuable and special, which could make the impact of a true power hitter (one that doesn't need steroids to hit them) even greater.

If this trend holds true for some time, I can see one of two things happening...possibly both...
1) More renewed interest in the game because the number of cheaters will decline. Also, more parity could bring in fans who might get caught up in their city's/region's team and become fans as they get caught up in a pennant race.
2) The fairweather fans, who really love the home runs, will lose interest and quit following the game.

It will be interesting to see what happens though. Personally, I love watching a team that incorporates speed from more than just its leadoff hitter.

EvilMerlin

It won't last though, just wait til you hit three months of summer and warm weather at the stadiums. The ball will be flying out again. They won't reach those numbers in 2006, but they're also not going to stay at this pace. It's baseball, it's a streaky game, and players won't start hitting grooves until the summer, and that's when the ball flies best. So to project anything right now is a waste of time. We're only in May.

smarchee

what is the absolute total of HR's in 2006 ? I am having trouble putting 1000 HR's in context.

Speaking as a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays, it's been brutal watching the offense this year, and it does kind of remind me of watching baseball when I was kid in the 1980s, with the 3-2 games and the 4-1 games being the norm, and the Jays having trouble reaching 5 runs in one game. I don't know if it is related to steroids being out of the game, but no regular power production from RF, LF, SS, 2B, 1B, C, just seems frustrating now, maybe after the offensive surge in the 1990s from all those positions

Cosmo

g under p wrote:

Is there any wonder why the RAYS and the MARLINS are in first place? This I believe is the effect of the Mitchell Report and how players are scared of being caught for using steriods.

Homeruns were down 500 last year and it's worse this year. Power teams like the Yankees are having a hard time and that's why teams that play small ball are having success at this time.

Is this better for baseball with more parity? Even the Orioles are having success go figure.

Peace

...
Play fair.
It's not fair to the player not using steroids who doesn't make the cut.
It's not fair to the player not using steroids to lose out an MVP or Cy Young Award to someone who is.
It's not fair to the player not using steroids who hits legitimate homeruns to rank 10th in home runs for the season.
Play fair... beat the other team by being the better team... not by cheating.

jimed14

g under p wrote:

Is there any wonder why the RAYS and the MARLINS are in first place? This I believe is the effect of the Mitchell Report and how players are scared of being caught for using steriods.

Homeruns were down 500 last year and it's worse this year. Power teams like the Yankees are having a hard time and that's why teams that play small ball are having success at this time.

Is this better for baseball with more parity? Even the Orioles are having success go figure.

Peace

but, they still play in much smaller ballparks ... and the pitching is still thinner due to all the expansion. And the strike zone is also still the size of a postage stamp.

I personally like seeing some of the lead leaders in pitching with ERAs under 2.00 ... I think a well pitched, 10-12 strikeout game is far more intersting to see than some of the arena league scores we were used to seeing in the late 90s.

so it's down from 2006 ... but where are homers as compared to say the dead ball years of the late 70s early 80s ... I bet homers are still WAY up from those days.

I don't thnk it's created more parity though ... payrolls are still WAY out of whack, and it'll just take teams liek the Yankees a few years to invest the dollars differently (like in pitching and OBP) and smartly (they are still paying for the likes Carl Pavano). Also, it's still only May 14, there's a lot of time for the cream of the league to rise. Let's not put the Marlins back in the world series yet.

Baseball is fine. Drugs are bad (mm'kay). This is a good thing.

(p.s. ... the Rays ar ea good young talented team ... I picked them to win the AL in this thread ... http://forums.pearljam.com/showpost.php?p=5319849&postcount=17 )

g under p

smarchee wrote:

what is the absolute total of HR's in 2006 ? I am having trouble putting 1000 HR's in context.

Speaking as a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays, it's been brutal watching the offense this year, and it does kind of remind me of watching baseball when I was kid in the 1980s, with the 3-2 games and the 4-1 games being the norm, and the Jays having trouble reaching 5 runs in one game. I don't know if it is related to steroids being out of the game, but no regular power production from RF, LF, SS, 2B, 1B, C, just seems frustrating now, maybe after the offensive surge in the 1990s from all those positions

I'm sure more about this affect of the Mitchell Report and lack steriod use will surely come forth. Here's a bit of stats on the homerun outage...ESPN: Homers Down.

Peace

SVRDhand13

You have to remember that every year that are surprise teams in the mix early but then die out a little before or after the All Star break. Lets face it: Marlins will come in 4th and Rays in 3rd. The home run total being down may be a factor but it won't last the whole season.

MrMerkinball

.....yet my Fantasy Team ERA continues to reach record highs

Shawn Smith Collective

Eh, let's remember a couple of things. First, the team that hits the most HR's in any given season has never won a title. HR's are a glamorous stat, but they're not what wins ballgames.

Second, the aberration of HR's jumping or declining by such a large amount in 2 seasons is something we've seen in the past:

Examples:

1970: 3,429 HR's
1971: 2,863 HR's
1972: 2,534 HR's
895 less HR's in 2 seasons.

1976: 2,235 HR's
1977: 3,644 HR's
a HUGE jump of 1,409 more HR's!

1987: 4,458 HR's
1988: 3,180 HR's
1,278 less HR's in one season!
1989: 3,083
1,375 less HR's in two seasons!

Now, things get a little interesting in the 90's though...

1992: 3,038 HR's
1993: 4,030 HR's
992 MORE HR's in one season
1994 was strike shortened
1995: 4,081 HR's
so this held from 1993 and the pace in '94...but then it jumped to
1996: 4,962 HR's
Reached 5,000 for the 1st time in 1998 and between 1998-2006 it hovered between 5,017-5,693, but the lightest years were 1998, 2002 and 2005....with 1998 being the major HR race between Mac and Sosa.

The total of 4,957 in 2007 was a dropff of 429 from 2006, but only a dropoff of 60 HR's in the pre-Mitchell investigation 2005 season.

So it looks like the theory being pushed by ESPN and others right now is based on the POWER OF OMISSION!

Fighting Hellfish

This could be as simple as just a few guys not hitting this year.

(2006)-2008 (on pace for in 2008)
Ryan Howard (58) 7 (28)
David Ortiz (54) 7 (27)
Alfonso Soriano (46) 5 (20)
Jermaine Dye (44) 6 (25)
Travis Hafner (42) 3 (13)
Carlos Beltran (41) 3 (13)

Maybe all those guys were on steroids.

Hawkshore

Where is Barry when you need him and juiced taters?

brain of c

all i know is baseball has returned to normal.

my padres have the worst record in baseball! as they should.

go padres!

g under p

brain of c wrote:

all i know is baseball has returned to normal.

my padres have the worst record in baseball! as they should.

go padres!

The Red Sox are still struggling but it's May so we shall see when the cream rises to the top.

Peace

Pearls&Stones

g under p wrote:

Is there any wonder why the RAYS and the MARLINS are in first place? This I believe is the effect of the Mitchell Report and how players are scared of being caught for using steriods.

Homeruns were down 500 last year and it's worse this year. Power teams like the Yankees are having a hard time and that's why teams that play small ball are having success at this time.

Is this better for baseball with more parity? Even the Orioles are having success go figure.

Peace

Hell yeah the parity is good for baseball. Half the teams in baseball made the playoffs between 2006-2007, and other teams are in it this year. This is more proof of what I have been saying all along--baseball can survive (and thrive) even with payroll disparity. Spend smart, scout well, execute, WIN.

I've been loving this season, even though my beloved Penguins Stanley Cup playoff run has taken some of my baseball time temporarily.

Peter Gammons did an article about how the decrease of steroids has led to teams with younger players (FLA, TB) having an edge because of their youth.