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What's Your Electoral Projection Count?

g under pg under p Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,200
edited October 2008 in A Moving Train
What's your electoral projection for this election?

Obama/Biden...341

McCain/Palin....196

Checkout this site that will help with what projection you may come up with. FIVETHIRTYEIGHT Electoral Projections Done Right
As the presidential race enters its final days, what do the polls say about the election outcome? We speak to Nate Silver, whose website FiveThirtyEight.com has become a must read for hundreds of thousands of political junkies.

Peace
*We CAN bomb the World to pieces, but we CAN'T bomb it into PEACE*...Michael Franti

*MUSIC IS the expression of EMOTION.....and that POLITICS IS merely the DECOY of PERCEPTION*
.....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti

*The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite INSANE*....Nikola Tesla(a man who shaped our world of electricity with his futuristic inventions)


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Comments

  • digsterdigster Posts: 1,293
    Obama/Biden...317
    McCain/Palin....221

    I think quite a few of the states that have swung towards Obama in the past two weeks will swing back towards McCain come Election Day, but not enough; McCain is bleeding in too many places. After looking at the map and adding up what states I thought each candidate would win, this is what I came up with.
  • Mrs.Vedder78Mrs.Vedder78 Posts: 4,585
    I don't like counting my chickens until they hatch....:D
    "Without the album covers, where do you clean your pot?" - EV
  • SVRDhand13SVRDhand13 Posts: 26,460
    Obama/Biden 302
    McCain/Palin 236
    severed hand thirteen
    2006: Gorge 7/23 2008: Hartford 6/27 Beacon 7/1 2009: Spectrum 10/30-31
    2010: Newark 5/18 MSG 5/20-21 2011: PJ20 9/3-4 2012: Made In America 9/2
    2013: Brooklyn 10/18-19 Philly 10/21-22 Hartford 10/25 2014: ACL10/12
    2015: NYC 9/23 2016: Tampa 4/11 Philly 4/28-29 MSG 5/1-2 Fenway 8/5+8/7
    2017: RRHoF 4/7   2018: Fenway 9/2+9/4   2021: Sea Hear Now 9/18 
    2022: MSG 9/11  2024: MSG 9/3-4 Philly 9/7+9/9 Fenway 9/15+9/17
    2025: Pittsburgh 5/16+5/18
  • g under pg under p Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,200
    I'm not voting for either candidate but what should be given out to WHOMEVER hits the nail on the head?

    That is they gets this exactly right.

    Peace
    *We CAN bomb the World to pieces, but we CAN'T bomb it into PEACE*...Michael Franti

    *MUSIC IS the expression of EMOTION.....and that POLITICS IS merely the DECOY of PERCEPTION*
    .....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti

    *The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite INSANE*....Nikola Tesla(a man who shaped our world of electricity with his futuristic inventions)


  • Mrs.Vedder78Mrs.Vedder78 Posts: 4,585
    g under p wrote:
    I'm not voting for either candidate but what should be given out to WHOMEVER hits the nail on the head?

    That is they gets this exactly right.

    Peace


    why you not voting?
    "Without the album covers, where do you clean your pot?" - EV
  • LikeAnOpeningBandForTheSunLikeAnOpeningBandForTheSun Posts: 6,097
    Ralph Nader to win by ONE BILLION POINTS.
  • g under pg under p Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,200
    Mrs_Vedder78 wrote:
    why you not voting?

    Oh I'm most certainly voting, I'm voting for Ralph Nader.

    Peace
    *We CAN bomb the World to pieces, but we CAN'T bomb it into PEACE*...Michael Franti

    *MUSIC IS the expression of EMOTION.....and that POLITICS IS merely the DECOY of PERCEPTION*
    .....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti

    *The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite INSANE*....Nikola Tesla(a man who shaped our world of electricity with his futuristic inventions)


  • mca47mca47 Posts: 13,301
    I think it will be a lot closer than most think.

    Sadly.
  • g under pg under p Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,200
    mca47 wrote:
    I think it will be a lot closer than most think.

    Sadly.

    According to 538....

    Monday, October 27, 2008
    What Would 'Tightening' Look Like?


    There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College?

    Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:

    John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.

    If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning.

    Peace
    *We CAN bomb the World to pieces, but we CAN'T bomb it into PEACE*...Michael Franti

    *MUSIC IS the expression of EMOTION.....and that POLITICS IS merely the DECOY of PERCEPTION*
    .....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti

    *The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite INSANE*....Nikola Tesla(a man who shaped our world of electricity with his futuristic inventions)


  • pateljampateljam Posts: 340
    I am not voting for those assclowns...
    But I will play this game, I think it will be this close


    Obama 277

    McCain 261
    2000-10-28 San Bernardino
    2003-06-02 Irvine
    2003-10-26 Mountain View-Bridge School
    2006-07-09 Los Angeles
    2006-07-10 Los Angeles
    2006-10-22 Mountain View- Bridge School
    2008-07-19 UCLA-Who Rock Honors
    2009-10-1 Los Angeles-2
    2009-10-9 San Diego
  • TDMize15TDMize15 Posts: 166
    I just filled out my Real Clear Politics map and I came up with:

    Obama 338, McCain 200

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/


    Although in another improbable scenario, I had 390-148.

    McCain is an extraordinarily difficult position... he has to win all of: Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Indiana, and Virginia to win... and he is trailing in every single one of them.

    It is not going to happen.
    All the rusted signs, we ignore throughout our lives, choosing the shiny ones instead...

    And he who forgets, will be destined to remember...
  • kenny olavkenny olav Posts: 3,319
    By my guesstimate, it's:

    Obama - 375
    McCain - 163

    I also won't be totally surprised if McCain loses his home state of Arizona.
  • beachdwellerbeachdweller Posts: 1,532
    364 - Obama
    174 - McCain
    "Music, for me, was fucking heroin." eV (nothing Ed has said is more true for me personally than this quote)

    Stop by:
    http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=14678777351&ref=mf
  • Mrs.Vedder78Mrs.Vedder78 Posts: 4,585
    g under p wrote:
    Oh I'm most certainly voting, I'm voting for Ralph Nader.

    Peace


    :o so silly of me to assume you weren't voting, sorry
    "Without the album covers, where do you clean your pot?" - EV
  • Mrs.Vedder78Mrs.Vedder78 Posts: 4,585
    Kenny Olav wrote:
    By my guesstimate, it's:

    Obama - 375
    McCain - 163

    I also won't be totally surprised if McCain loses his home state of Arizona.


    I was surprised to see Arizona's gap tighten, if there was one state I didn't expect to sway at all was McCain's state.

    I'm a nervous wreck as of yesterday, its a week away and I just wish it was November 5th already and have 100% confirmation that Senator Obama is now President Obama ....
    "Without the album covers, where do you clean your pot?" - EV
  • g under pg under p Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,200
    Don't Know Myself wrote:
    I just filled out my Real Clear Politics map and I came up with:

    Obama 338, McCain 200

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/


    Although in another improbable scenario, I had 390-148.

    McCain is an extraordinarily difficult position... he has to win all of: Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Indiana, and Virginia to win... and he is trailing in every single one of them.

    It is not going to happen.

    Interesting site and they have Obama at 255 solid with 75 as a toss up, he doesn't need much to win with that count.

    Montana and Arizona as a toss up, WOW!

    Peace
    *We CAN bomb the World to pieces, but we CAN'T bomb it into PEACE*...Michael Franti

    *MUSIC IS the expression of EMOTION.....and that POLITICS IS merely the DECOY of PERCEPTION*
    .....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti

    *The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite INSANE*....Nikola Tesla(a man who shaped our world of electricity with his futuristic inventions)


  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    Intersting that so many have Obama well over 300 in the electoral count.

    I've been watching this since mid September ... thread comments here ...

    http://forums.pearljam.com/showthread.php?t=304182

    I still think it's going to be a lot closer ... I'll go with

    Obama 291
    McCain 247

    In the end, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina all go back to McCain ... No matter how many polls I see out of Ohio, I won't ever believe it'll vote for Obama it until I see it ... Florida is more likely to vote for Obama in my opinion

    I feel it's going to be the Kerry 2004 map ...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=11

    with Obama adding New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia.

    Still, 7 days left, lots can happen ... Obama is betting heavily on the youth vote ... and they have come up short many times before, and there are still many undecideds, which, I bet, vote McCain.
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • g under pg under p Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,200
    jimed14 wrote:
    Intersting that so many have Obama well over 300 in the electoral count.

    I've been watching this since mid September ... thread comments here ...

    http://forums.pearljam.com/showthread.php?t=304182

    I still think it's going to be a lot closer ... I'll go with

    Obama 291
    McCain 247

    In the end, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina all go back to McCain ... No matter how many polls I see out of Ohio, I won't ever believe it'll vote for Obama it until I see it ... Florida is more likely to vote for Obama in my opinion

    I feel it's going to be the Kerry 2004 map ...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=11

    with Obama adding New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia.

    Still, 7 days left, lots can happen ... Obama is betting heavily on the youth vote ... and they have come up short many times before, and there are still many undecideds, which, I bet, vote McCain.

    There HAS TO BE somebody's projection that McCain wins the electoral count.

    SOMEBODY?

    Peace
    *We CAN bomb the World to pieces, but we CAN'T bomb it into PEACE*...Michael Franti

    *MUSIC IS the expression of EMOTION.....and that POLITICS IS merely the DECOY of PERCEPTION*
    .....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti

    *The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite INSANE*....Nikola Tesla(a man who shaped our world of electricity with his futuristic inventions)


  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    g under p wrote:
    There HAS TO BE somebody's projection that McCain wins the electoral count.

    SOMEBODY?

    Peace

    head over to Sean Hannity's message board, you'll find a lot of folks over there that think McCain will win ... ;)

    easier question, find people that think McCain can win Pennsylvania ... it seems he can really only win this thing by winning Pennsylvania ... thus, why he's spending SO much time there.

    And it's why I think Obama is spending a lot of time in Florida ... it's Pennsylvania insurance.

    I still think it's a lot closer than people think ... I'd only give Obama 3-2 odds at this point ...
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • g under pg under p Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,200
    jimed14 wrote:
    head over to Sean Hannity's message board, you'll find a lot of folks over there that think McCain will win ... ;)

    easier question, find people that think McCain can win Pennsylvania ... it seems he can really only win this thing by winning Pennsylvania ... thus, why he's spending SO much time there.

    And it's why I think Obama is spending a lot of time in Florida ... it's Pennsylvania insurance.

    I still think it's a lot closer than people think ... I'd only give Obama 3-2 odds at this point ...

    Strangest thing you told me about that Hannity forum and I registered but they won't activate me so that I can post. I can only look and read.

    I still think I'll be the closest with my projection. :D

    Peace
    *We CAN bomb the World to pieces, but we CAN'T bomb it into PEACE*...Michael Franti

    *MUSIC IS the expression of EMOTION.....and that POLITICS IS merely the DECOY of PERCEPTION*
    .....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti

    *The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite INSANE*....Nikola Tesla(a man who shaped our world of electricity with his futuristic inventions)


  • Red BurritoRed Burrito Posts: 479
    Obama 280
    McCain 258

    Cool Interactive Site: http://www.270towin.com/
    the sorrow grows bigger, when the sorrow's denied
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    g under p wrote:
    Strangest thing you told me about that Hannity forum and I registered but they won't activate me so that I can post. I can only look and read.

    I still think I'll be the closest with my projection. :D

    Peace

    As for the Hannity board, I just lurk over there ... there are too many far right folks for me to even start thinking about responding, I'd get way too angry .... there are a few "vote for neither" folks that actually seem to be the most level headed and make the most sense.

    I hope you're projection IS the closest ... which states other than the traditional blue stats did you take away from McCain?
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • g under pg under p Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,200
    jimed14 wrote:
    As for the Hannity board, I just lurk over there ... there are too many far right folks for me to even start thinking about responding, I'd get way too angry .... there are a few "vote for neither" folks that actually seem to be the most level headed and make the most sense.

    I hope you're projection IS the closest ... which states other than the traditional blue stats did you take away from McCain?

    Well I took away NC, FL and took a chance on OHIO but I just see things NOT being as close as people think. Grant you I'm in a secure world here in MD/DC with PA to the North with a change in VA.

    I was just lurking over at the Hannity site and looking in on the post *Poll: Enough with "McCain will lose, McCain should conceed" * just to see what folks would say. I thought it gets crazy on MTrain but they're are on a whole other level.

    Peace
    *We CAN bomb the World to pieces, but we CAN'T bomb it into PEACE*...Michael Franti

    *MUSIC IS the expression of EMOTION.....and that POLITICS IS merely the DECOY of PERCEPTION*
    .....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti

    *The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite INSANE*....Nikola Tesla(a man who shaped our world of electricity with his futuristic inventions)


  • fugawzifugawzi Posts: 879
    g under p wrote:
    I was just lurking over at the Hannity site and looking in on the post *Poll: Enough with "McCain will lose, McCain should conceed" * just to see what folks would say. I thought it gets crazy on MTrain but they're are on a whole other level.

    That's what happens over in Hannityworld, I mean Insanityworld. Sean Insanitty.
    West Palm 2000 I & II/West Palm '03/Tampa '03/Kissimmee '04/Vic Theater '07/West Palm '08/Tampa '08/NYC MSG I & II '08/Philly Spectrum III & IV '09/Cleveland '10/Bristow '10/PJ20 I & II 2011/Pensacola '12/Pittsburgh '13/Denver '14
  • poto101poto101 Posts: 406
    I'll let you guys know, I'm still waiting for michigan to stop bouncing.





    .....Still going....
    It's all happening....

    East Troy 2003
    Chicago x2, Summerfest x2, 2006
    Chicago THE VIC, Lollapalooza, 2007
    bonnaROOOOOOO 2008
    Chicago x2 2009

    (EV chicago 2008 night 2)
  • Gonzo1977Gonzo1977 Posts: 1,696
    If predictions are true and we see the largest voter turnout in the History of the United States...Then the map will look more like this:

    Obama 410
    McCain 128

    But This is the United States and you can never underestimate the apathy, ignorance, and indifference in this country so...

    Obama 270
    MCain 268

    Either way...I can't wait for Next Tuesday. I got a Bottle of my finest Red and a Big Fatty with my name on it.

    See You Out There.
  • fugawzifugawzi Posts: 879
    Gonzo1977 wrote:
    Either way...I can't wait for Next Tuesday. I got a Bottle of my finest Red and a Big Fatty with my name on it. See You Out There.

    Nice! Sounds festive. Roll another one, I'm comin' over.
    West Palm 2000 I & II/West Palm '03/Tampa '03/Kissimmee '04/Vic Theater '07/West Palm '08/Tampa '08/NYC MSG I & II '08/Philly Spectrum III & IV '09/Cleveland '10/Bristow '10/PJ20 I & II 2011/Pensacola '12/Pittsburgh '13/Denver '14
  • g under pg under p Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,200
    The Black Turnout Surge, Already In Progress

    According to Michael McDonald's terrific website, there are three states in which early voting has already exceeded its totals from 2004. These are Georgia, where early voting is already at 180 percent of its 2004 total, Louisiana (169 percent), and North Carolina (129 percent).

    Hmm ... can anybody think of something that those three states have in common?

    Peace
    *We CAN bomb the World to pieces, but we CAN'T bomb it into PEACE*...Michael Franti

    *MUSIC IS the expression of EMOTION.....and that POLITICS IS merely the DECOY of PERCEPTION*
    .....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti

    *The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite INSANE*....Nikola Tesla(a man who shaped our world of electricity with his futuristic inventions)


  • Uncle LeoUncle Leo Posts: 1,059
    McCain 279

    Obama 259
    I cannot come up with a new sig till I get this egg off my face.
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    Uncle Leo wrote:
    McCain 279

    Obama 259


    curious how you think he gets there ... care to share?

    I'm not saying it couldn't happen, just curious about your state sleection ...

    Assume you think McCain takes Pennsylvania ... possibly Colorado?
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
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