1. a poll of 4000 can very much be taken seriously, as long as the respondents are properly and randomly picked. Then this would be very thorough as polls go. Polls rarely have more than 1000 respondents.
It's been a while since I've looked into Gallup's poll-taking methods, so correct me if I'm wrong on this: This poll was most likely taken by telephone. While a good chunk of Americans still have landlines, the younger voters (in their lower 30s and in their 20s) are using primarily cell phones or landlines as a second phone line rather than their primary method of communication.
(I'm going to stop myself before I go off on a tangent about random sampling methods.)
But my point is, doesn't this poll render itself kind of useless when you're talking about taking a sample of people who use landline phones as their means of communication? The younger generations, I would fear, aren't being represented by this poll.
And if that's the case, does the poll really say anything about the population as a total? Other than "the older folk who have landlines and are Republican think they're mentally healthy." ?
drivingrl: "Will I ever get to meet Gwen Stefani?"
kevinbeetle: "Yes. When her career washes up and her and Gavin move to Galveston, you will meet her at Hot Topic shopping for a Japanese cheerleader outfit.
Perhaps this is due to Republicans not living in reality.
Being neither Republican nor Democrat myself, I would argue Republicans do live in reality, but that reality sucks and Democrats want to make that reality better..
It's been a while since I've looked into Gallup's poll-taking methods, so correct me if I'm wrong on this: This poll was most likely taken by telephone. While a good chunk of Americans still have landlines, the younger voters (in their lower 30s and in their 20s) are using primarily cell phones or landlines as a second phone line rather than their primary method of communication.
(I'm going to stop myself before I go off on a tangent about random sampling methods.)
But my point is, doesn't this poll render itself kind of useless when you're talking about taking a sample of people who use landline phones as their means of communication? The younger generations, I would fear, aren't being represented by this poll.
And if that's the case, does the poll really say anything about the population as a total? Other than "the older folk who have landlines and are Republican think they're mentally healthy." ?
It depends how big of a problem it is. I dont know any stats about american phone usage as pertains to demographics. I know that in Norway the youngest segment will not be reached by landlines much. However, as long as you reach some of them, and explicitly go out and find enough of them for a study, that isn't that much of a problem. Thus, using a stratified selection rather than random selection. That is pretty normal, actually.
But assuming this, is age that big of a factor in the democrat/republican split? I dont know the data, but I would assume there wasn't that much of a gap. But I could be wrong.
Barring sampling errors, and that the demographic spread is adequately covered, then I have no problems with the statistical side of the study. Whether it is at all relevant in the sense that one party's people are different than the other's I dont really know. The study shows that income, church attendance and education have bigger effects than party affiliation, so I am more tempted in locating third variables beyond the ones listed there at the last page, to see if that effect still held, or whether it depends on something else entirely. Age was controlled for, and didn't have much of an impact, btw. Also, in regards to the original angle in this thread, voting democrat has no impact whatsoever, and a regression coefficient close to 0. So that's thoroughly debunked.
Peace
Dan
"YOU [humans] NEED TO BELIEVE IN THINGS THAT AREN'T TRUE. HOW ELSE CAN THEY BECOME?" - Death
"Every judgment teeters on the brink of error. To claim absolute knowledge is to become monstrous. Knowledge is an unending adventure at the edge of uncertainty." - Frank Herbert, Dune, 1965
But assuming this, is age that big of a factor in the democrat/republican split? I dont know the data, but I would assume there wasn't that much of a gap. But I could be wrong.
It shifts, but typically younger voters align themselves with the Democratic party, while older voters align themselves to the Republican party. There are exceptions, but this is the trend.
So if you're sampling from an older population (the part of the population that has landlines), you have the potential of getting an inaccurate glimpse into how this self-perception really flows along party lines. This may not be that big of an issue now, but as generations go by, this definitely will. For example, I only use my mobile phone, so I (and everyone else doesn't have a landline) would not be properly represented in such a survey.
But I still can't get over the reasoning behind taking such a poll. Gallup needs some other things to do.
drivingrl: "Will I ever get to meet Gwen Stefani?"
kevinbeetle: "Yes. When her career washes up and her and Gavin move to Galveston, you will meet her at Hot Topic shopping for a Japanese cheerleader outfit.
It shifts, but typically younger voters align themselves with the Democratic party, while older voters align themselves to the Republican party. There are exceptions, but this is the trend.
So if you're sampling from an older population (the part of the population that has landlines), you have the potential of getting an inaccurate glimpse into how this self-perception really flows along party lines. This may not be that big of an issue now, but as generations go by, this definitely will. For example, I only use my mobile phone, so I (and everyone else doesn't have a landline) would not be properly represented in such a survey.
But I still can't get over the reasoning behind taking such a poll. Gallup needs some other things to do.
Well, as you said, it's not that big a problem now, but will certainly be in the future. These things will probably gradually shift over to mail and mobile in time. Age was factored in, and wasn't that big a factor. But since the demography of the study weren't presented, it's hard to have a real opinion on this.
Gallup could well need other things to do.
Peace
Dan
"YOU [humans] NEED TO BELIEVE IN THINGS THAT AREN'T TRUE. HOW ELSE CAN THEY BECOME?" - Death
"Every judgment teeters on the brink of error. To claim absolute knowledge is to become monstrous. Knowledge is an unending adventure at the edge of uncertainty." - Frank Herbert, Dune, 1965
Well, as you said, it's not that big a problem now, but will certainly be in the future. These things will probably gradually shift over to mail and mobile in time. Age was factored in, and wasn't that big a factor. But since the demography of the study weren't presented, it's hard to have a real opinion on this.
Gallup could well need other things to do.
Peace
Dan
Sorry for taking this so off-topic. But thanks, Dan, for your replies!
drivingrl: "Will I ever get to meet Gwen Stefani?"
kevinbeetle: "Yes. When her career washes up and her and Gavin move to Galveston, you will meet her at Hot Topic shopping for a Japanese cheerleader outfit.
Republican states have higher incidences of death from alzheimer's disease.
Another useless tabloid.
I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
Comments
again, you say fuck canada. will you answer why you don't like canada. i have asked you that now 3 times.
- Soren Aabye Kierkegaard (1813-1855)
If you haven't got anything nice to say about anybody, come sit next to me."
- Alice Roosevelt Longworth (1884-1980)
It's been a while since I've looked into Gallup's poll-taking methods, so correct me if I'm wrong on this: This poll was most likely taken by telephone. While a good chunk of Americans still have landlines, the younger voters (in their lower 30s and in their 20s) are using primarily cell phones or landlines as a second phone line rather than their primary method of communication.
(I'm going to stop myself before I go off on a tangent about random sampling methods.)
But my point is, doesn't this poll render itself kind of useless when you're talking about taking a sample of people who use landline phones as their means of communication? The younger generations, I would fear, aren't being represented by this poll.
And if that's the case, does the poll really say anything about the population as a total? Other than "the older folk who have landlines and are Republican think they're mentally healthy." ?
kevinbeetle: "Yes. When her career washes up and her and Gavin move to Galveston, you will meet her at Hot Topic shopping for a Japanese cheerleader outfit.
Next!"
But assuming this, is age that big of a factor in the democrat/republican split? I dont know the data, but I would assume there wasn't that much of a gap. But I could be wrong.
Barring sampling errors, and that the demographic spread is adequately covered, then I have no problems with the statistical side of the study. Whether it is at all relevant in the sense that one party's people are different than the other's I dont really know. The study shows that income, church attendance and education have bigger effects than party affiliation, so I am more tempted in locating third variables beyond the ones listed there at the last page, to see if that effect still held, or whether it depends on something else entirely. Age was controlled for, and didn't have much of an impact, btw. Also, in regards to the original angle in this thread, voting democrat has no impact whatsoever, and a regression coefficient close to 0. So that's thoroughly debunked.
Peace
Dan
"Every judgment teeters on the brink of error. To claim absolute knowledge is to become monstrous. Knowledge is an unending adventure at the edge of uncertainty." - Frank Herbert, Dune, 1965
It shifts, but typically younger voters align themselves with the Democratic party, while older voters align themselves to the Republican party. There are exceptions, but this is the trend.
So if you're sampling from an older population (the part of the population that has landlines), you have the potential of getting an inaccurate glimpse into how this self-perception really flows along party lines. This may not be that big of an issue now, but as generations go by, this definitely will. For example, I only use my mobile phone, so I (and everyone else doesn't have a landline) would not be properly represented in such a survey.
But I still can't get over the reasoning behind taking such a poll. Gallup needs some other things to do.
kevinbeetle: "Yes. When her career washes up and her and Gavin move to Galveston, you will meet her at Hot Topic shopping for a Japanese cheerleader outfit.
Next!"
Gallup could well need other things to do.
Peace
Dan
"Every judgment teeters on the brink of error. To claim absolute knowledge is to become monstrous. Knowledge is an unending adventure at the edge of uncertainty." - Frank Herbert, Dune, 1965
Sorry for taking this so off-topic. But thanks, Dan, for your replies!
kevinbeetle: "Yes. When her career washes up and her and Gavin move to Galveston, you will meet her at Hot Topic shopping for a Japanese cheerleader outfit.
Next!"
Another useless tabloid.