Anyone ever check out this electoral polling website?

fugawzi
fugawzi Posts: 891
edited October 2008 in A Moving Train
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

It's a pretty accurate website that keeps track of a ton of polls. During the primaries most polls predicted Obama to win North Carolina by 8 points, and Clinton to win Indiana by about the same amount. Obama ended up winning NC by 14 and Clinton won Indiana by less than 2. The guy who came the closest to the actual numbers was the guy who runs fivethirtyeight.com he had Obama winning NC by 17 and Clinton winning by 2 so I'm thinking he knows what he's talking about. Check out the site and look at the numbers for the upcoming election.
West Palm 2000 I & II/West Palm '03/Tampa '03/Kissimmee '04/Vic Theater '07/West Palm '08/Tampa '08/NYC MSG I & II '08/Philly Spectrum III & IV '09/Cleveland '10/Bristow '10/PJ20 I & II 2011/Pensacola '12/Pittsburgh '13/Denver '14
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  • JSBE
    JSBE Posts: 1,078
    fugawzi wrote:
    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

    It's a pretty accurate website that keeps track of a ton of polls. During the primaries most polls predicted Obama to win North Carolina by 8 points, and Clinton to win Indiana by about the same amount. Obama ended up winning NC by 14 and Clinton won Indiana by less than 2. The guy who came the closest to the actual numbers was the guy who runs fivethirtyeight.com he had Obama winning NC by 17 and Clinton winning by 2 so I'm thinking he knows what he's talking about. Check out the site and look at the numbers for the upcoming election.

    sweet fancy moses there is a lot of information on that site.
  • blackredyellow
    blackredyellow Posts: 5,889
    I check that site and http://www.realclearpolitics.com everyday.
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  • jeffbr
    jeffbr Seattle Posts: 7,177
    I'm a fan of realclearpolitics and check it all of the time, too. Thanks to fugawzi for the fivethirtyeight recommendation. It looks like a great site. I'll add it to my list of regular reads.
    "I'll use the magic word - let's just shut the fuck up, please." EV, 04/13/08
  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    The guy who's blog it is, Nate Silver, has some great articles on baseball prospectus and is a regular columnist there and also predicted the Rays to win 22 more games than they did last year. It's funny that he's one of the most respected baseball theorists but it getting a lot of notoriety from his side gig now. ;)
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  • anotherclone
    anotherclone Posts: 1,688
    fugawzi wrote:
    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

    It's a pretty accurate website that keeps track of a ton of polls. During the primaries most polls predicted Obama to win North Carolina by 8 points, and Clinton to win Indiana by about the same amount. Obama ended up winning NC by 14 and Clinton won Indiana by less than 2. The guy who came the closest to the actual numbers was the guy who runs fivethirtyeight.com he had Obama winning NC by 17 and Clinton winning by 2 so I'm thinking he knows what he's talking about. Check out the site and look at the numbers for the upcoming election.

    I check this site out almost every day. :)

    If I recall correctly, he accurately projected the %% of the Palin bounce, how long it would last and where the numbers would end up once the bounce ended. I believe he was within something like 1%. (I am totally going off of my memory with that though.)

    He is an amazing numbers geek.
  • fugawzi
    fugawzi Posts: 891
    anotherclone wrote:
    He is an amazing numbers geek.

    Definitely. It's amazing how accurate he has been with politics and sports.
    West Palm 2000 I & II/West Palm '03/Tampa '03/Kissimmee '04/Vic Theater '07/West Palm '08/Tampa '08/NYC MSG I & II '08/Philly Spectrum III & IV '09/Cleveland '10/Bristow '10/PJ20 I & II 2011/Pensacola '12/Pittsburgh '13/Denver '14
  • RolandTD20Kdrummer
    RolandTD20Kdrummer Posts: 13,066
    Why can't Americans just vote and get it over with, how ridiculous.

    Canadian Election...37 days...one day...boom... it's done.

    US election....the ongoing seemingly never ending saga of horse and pony...
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  • fugawzi
    fugawzi Posts: 891
    RolandTD20Kdrummer wrote:
    Why can't Americans just vote and get it over with, how ridiculous.

    Canadian Election...37 days...one day...boom... it's done.

    US election....the ongoing seemingly never ending saga of horse and pony...

    I agree with you there. The election process is a little too drawn out in this country. It is a big deal and it shouldn't be rushed, but it does seem to drag on for too long.
    West Palm 2000 I & II/West Palm '03/Tampa '03/Kissimmee '04/Vic Theater '07/West Palm '08/Tampa '08/NYC MSG I & II '08/Philly Spectrum III & IV '09/Cleveland '10/Bristow '10/PJ20 I & II 2011/Pensacola '12/Pittsburgh '13/Denver '14

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