Peak Oil
Jeanwah
Posts: 6,363
We're probably at peak or very near it right now...but the majority of people don't act like it's a big deal.
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Peak Problems
As height of oil production nears, people must conserve and change the way they live
By PAUL SWARTZ
First published: Sunday, May 20, 2007
Most of the world has not tuned into "peak oil" as a real and inevitable event. But peak oil the moment when we can no longer, on a global basis, increase oil production may be here already or only a year or two away.
Is peak oil a big deal? Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a respected oil analyst and past director of the National Iranian Oil Company, refers to it as "the most important event of the 21st century." His greatest worry is the continuing contraction in oil production after the peak, with annual production reduced by approximately 30 percent or more within 12 to 15 years after the peak.
Though there still will be large oil reserves in the ground after peak oil, most wells no longer will be able to yield oil at their earlier faster rate, and production will irreversibly decline.
The United States experienced a substantial oil peak event in 1970, though many of us were unaware of it. After that, oil production in this country went into continuous decline, from 10 million gallons a day then to the current 6 million barrels a day. We have hardly noticed this loss because of an abundance of oil flowing our way from many overseas sources that still have ample oil.
Why are we so worried about the coming global oil peak? It is because the abundance of practically free oil, more than any other form of energy, underpins our civilization. Oil fuels the 260 million automobiles on American highways today. It gives us our life in the suburbs, allowing us to live rather far from the cities. It provides practically free heating for our homes. Airplanes and ocean vessels depend upon oil; much of our packaging and clothing come from oil. The list goes on and on.
So after peak oil, why can't we just learn to conserve and to produce energy from other sources?
Conservation is tough for most industrial societies because income and wealth are very unevenly distributed. Conservation is also tough in a capitalistic society because the goal is always to expand well-being. Finally, conservation is tough in societies in which politicians need to promise a better future to get elected.
When gasoline doubles or triples in price, those who are well off may grumble but because they can afford it, they will likely pay the price. But those on the bottom end of the earnings curve will be fighting for sustenance and their way of life. That's a hard-to-remedy situation.
So why don't we solve this problem by using energy from other sources? One obstacle is that we run our automobiles, heat our homes and power our airplanes with a liquid energy oil. Wind, natural gas and nuclear and solar energy just don't come in a convenient liquid form.
A second major obstacle is quantity. The world consumes 85 million barrels of oil each day. Even the loss of a small percentage of that is an enormous amount to replace, whatever the alternative energy source may be.
Though it may not seem like much of a consideration, human population has been growing globally at 1 percent to 2 percent each year, enabled by the enormous and growing supply of nearly free oil.
But there are rays of hope. Over the years, we have learned to become more efficient in our use of energy. We have learned how to produce cars that give us 30 to 40 miles per gallon, and hybrids at 50 miles per gallon. We have learned how to improve the insulation in our homes to reduce the energy needed for heating and cooling.
And there are still other ways of addressing the shortages that will be created by peak oil. There is the production of ethanol from corn, sugar cane and cellulose. Still, while this may be a politically sage program, the underlying economics are being questioned, and our farms can provide only a rather small fraction (approximately 14 percent) of our needed oil.
Another promising approach is the production of oil from coal (the Fischer-Tropsch process). In South Africa today, more than 50 percent of cars and trucks are powered by gasoline made from coal. The United States has tremendous reserves of coal.
There is also the possibility of weaning automobiles from gasoline altogether, and developing an automobile that runs on a daily charge from its electric battery.
The challenge of each of these approaches is enormous, yet so is their potential benefit.
Unfortunately, one challenge goes beyond ethanol, and beyond the conversion of coal to oil and even beyond the electrification of our transportation system.
The greatest challenge ahead is not technical or economic, but goes to the heart of being human. It is the issue of how we in advanced societies will behave when our way of life is about to be constrained or threatened when the most precious of our resources, oil, is in scarce supply.
What is to protect the smaller, less powerful oil-rich nations from the powerful nations thirsting for oil? And what is to restrain each of the powerful nations from taking up the sword against one another as they respond to the call of their citizens for more oil? Already today we see aggressive posturing by several powerful nations to make their oil supplies more secure.
The challenges that peak oil will present are enormous, but can probably be met if we can only get going now. But we don't have a very good record in exercising conservation, or in developing alternative fuels, or in changing our ways. Let us hope that we still have time to accomplish all that needs to be undertaken, and that we will have visionary leadership to guide us well. But above all, we must start now while time is on our side.
http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=590823&TextPage=2
*****************************************************************
Peak Problems
As height of oil production nears, people must conserve and change the way they live
By PAUL SWARTZ
First published: Sunday, May 20, 2007
Most of the world has not tuned into "peak oil" as a real and inevitable event. But peak oil the moment when we can no longer, on a global basis, increase oil production may be here already or only a year or two away.
Is peak oil a big deal? Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a respected oil analyst and past director of the National Iranian Oil Company, refers to it as "the most important event of the 21st century." His greatest worry is the continuing contraction in oil production after the peak, with annual production reduced by approximately 30 percent or more within 12 to 15 years after the peak.
Though there still will be large oil reserves in the ground after peak oil, most wells no longer will be able to yield oil at their earlier faster rate, and production will irreversibly decline.
The United States experienced a substantial oil peak event in 1970, though many of us were unaware of it. After that, oil production in this country went into continuous decline, from 10 million gallons a day then to the current 6 million barrels a day. We have hardly noticed this loss because of an abundance of oil flowing our way from many overseas sources that still have ample oil.
Why are we so worried about the coming global oil peak? It is because the abundance of practically free oil, more than any other form of energy, underpins our civilization. Oil fuels the 260 million automobiles on American highways today. It gives us our life in the suburbs, allowing us to live rather far from the cities. It provides practically free heating for our homes. Airplanes and ocean vessels depend upon oil; much of our packaging and clothing come from oil. The list goes on and on.
So after peak oil, why can't we just learn to conserve and to produce energy from other sources?
Conservation is tough for most industrial societies because income and wealth are very unevenly distributed. Conservation is also tough in a capitalistic society because the goal is always to expand well-being. Finally, conservation is tough in societies in which politicians need to promise a better future to get elected.
When gasoline doubles or triples in price, those who are well off may grumble but because they can afford it, they will likely pay the price. But those on the bottom end of the earnings curve will be fighting for sustenance and their way of life. That's a hard-to-remedy situation.
So why don't we solve this problem by using energy from other sources? One obstacle is that we run our automobiles, heat our homes and power our airplanes with a liquid energy oil. Wind, natural gas and nuclear and solar energy just don't come in a convenient liquid form.
A second major obstacle is quantity. The world consumes 85 million barrels of oil each day. Even the loss of a small percentage of that is an enormous amount to replace, whatever the alternative energy source may be.
Though it may not seem like much of a consideration, human population has been growing globally at 1 percent to 2 percent each year, enabled by the enormous and growing supply of nearly free oil.
But there are rays of hope. Over the years, we have learned to become more efficient in our use of energy. We have learned how to produce cars that give us 30 to 40 miles per gallon, and hybrids at 50 miles per gallon. We have learned how to improve the insulation in our homes to reduce the energy needed for heating and cooling.
And there are still other ways of addressing the shortages that will be created by peak oil. There is the production of ethanol from corn, sugar cane and cellulose. Still, while this may be a politically sage program, the underlying economics are being questioned, and our farms can provide only a rather small fraction (approximately 14 percent) of our needed oil.
Another promising approach is the production of oil from coal (the Fischer-Tropsch process). In South Africa today, more than 50 percent of cars and trucks are powered by gasoline made from coal. The United States has tremendous reserves of coal.
There is also the possibility of weaning automobiles from gasoline altogether, and developing an automobile that runs on a daily charge from its electric battery.
The challenge of each of these approaches is enormous, yet so is their potential benefit.
Unfortunately, one challenge goes beyond ethanol, and beyond the conversion of coal to oil and even beyond the electrification of our transportation system.
The greatest challenge ahead is not technical or economic, but goes to the heart of being human. It is the issue of how we in advanced societies will behave when our way of life is about to be constrained or threatened when the most precious of our resources, oil, is in scarce supply.
What is to protect the smaller, less powerful oil-rich nations from the powerful nations thirsting for oil? And what is to restrain each of the powerful nations from taking up the sword against one another as they respond to the call of their citizens for more oil? Already today we see aggressive posturing by several powerful nations to make their oil supplies more secure.
The challenges that peak oil will present are enormous, but can probably be met if we can only get going now. But we don't have a very good record in exercising conservation, or in developing alternative fuels, or in changing our ways. Let us hope that we still have time to accomplish all that needs to be undertaken, and that we will have visionary leadership to guide us well. But above all, we must start now while time is on our side.
http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=590823&TextPage=2
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Comments
And the resistance that humans have shown (me included to a point) to conserving or changing their way of life doesn't seem very promising to me that we can prolong this resource.
was like a picture
of a sunny day
“We can complain because rose bushes have thorns, or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses.”
― Abraham Lincoln
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/ID04Dj01.html
in the immortal words of ali g.... you betta recognize
Bring it on cause I'm no victim
b nice loves pearl jam like ed vedder loves america