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Deception 101

AhnimusAhnimus Posts: 10,569
edited August 2006 in A Moving Train
Here is an example of a very deceptive story. It's mathematical and very convincing. Some people will never understand it. I've posted it before.

Three guys, for whatever reason, rent a hotel room. The clerk requests $30 for the price of the room. So each guy pays $10 to the clerk and the bellboy escorts them to their room. Later on, the clerk remembers a sale that the room should only be $25 dollars. Realizing that $5 can't be split evenly three ways, the clerk gives five $1 bills to the bellboy. The bellboy arrives at the room of the three men. The men agree to taking $1 each and giving the bellboy the remaining $2 out of thanks.

Now, I come along and say "Hey guys, you all paid $10 dollars, but you all got $1 back, that means you paid $27 dollars in total, the Bellboy has the $2 you gave him, so there is $1 missing. The cook has it!" Then the three guys pull out their gats race down to the kitchen and fill the cook with lead.

Well, ok, maybe not, but what happened to the other dollar?
I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
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    AhnimusAhnimus Posts: 10,569
    Another example:

    This guy George Tenet of the CIA tells Don Rumsfeld of the DoD that Saddam doesn't have a weapons program or mobile chemical laboratories and the Niger yellowcake theory was false.

    Don Rumsfeld goes to Dick Cheney and says it's all true. Dick Cheney goes to Colin Powell and says "here is your speech for the UN"

    Colin Powell goes to the UN and says "We know Iraq has WMDs, mobile chemical laboratories and purchased yellowcake from Niger"

    Dick Cheney goes on television and says "We know where the weapons are, they are north, south, east and west of Baghdad, in that area."

    The story ends when we find out that they were all full of shit and omitted the conflicting evidence and findings of the CIA.

    This example is a bit easier to figure out though.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
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    Human TideHuman Tide Posts: 319
    Ahnimus wrote:
    Here is an example of a very deceptive story. It's mathematical and very convincing. Some people will never understand it. I've posted it before.

    Three guys, for whatever reason, rent a hotel room. The clerk requests $30 for the price of the room. So each guy pays $10 to the clerk and the bellboy escorts them to their room. Later on, the clerk remembers a sale that the room should only be $25 dollars. Realizing that $5 can't be split evenly three ways, the clerk gives five $1 bills to the bellboy. The bellboy arrives at the room of the three men. The men agree to taking $1 each and giving the bellboy the remaining $2 out of thanks.

    Now, I come along and say "Hey guys, you all paid $10 dollars, but you all got $1 back, that means you paid $27 dollars in total, the Bellboy has the $2 you gave him, so there is $1 missing. The cook has it!" Then the three guys pull out their gats race down to the kitchen and fill the cook with lead.

    Well, ok, maybe not, but what happened to the other dollar?

    If the point is that people have short memories and don't pay much attention, the story isn't really necessary.
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    Ahnimus wrote:
    Here is an example of a very deceptive story. It's mathematical and very convincing. Some people will never understand it. I've posted it before.

    Three guys, for whatever reason, rent a hotel room. The clerk requests $30 for the price of the room. So each guy pays $10 to the clerk and the bellboy escorts them to their room. Later on, the clerk remembers a sale that the room should only be $25 dollars. Realizing that $5 can't be split evenly three ways, the clerk gives five $1 bills to the bellboy. The bellboy arrives at the room of the three men. The men agree to taking $1 each and giving the bellboy the remaining $2 out of thanks.

    Now, I come along and say "Hey guys, you all paid $10 dollars, but you all got $1 back, that means you paid $27 dollars in total, the Bellboy has the $2 you gave him, so there is $1 missing. The cook has it!" Then the three guys pull out their gats race down to the kitchen and fill the cook with lead.

    Well, ok, maybe not, but what happened to the other dollar?


    This is going to make me look like a fool but fuck it. Better to know than not. Can you explain the outcome to me?
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    Human TideHuman Tide Posts: 319
    This is going to make me look like a fool but fuck it. Better to know than not. Can you explain the outcome to me?

    Just count again.
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    Wow. Now I am a fool. I can't believe I missed that.
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    AhnimusAhnimus Posts: 10,569
    This is going to make me look like a fool but fuck it. Better to know than not. Can you explain the outcome to me?

    Well, basically the story is wrong.

    It's just a mathematical trick. If you think of it in different terms. They each paid $8.33~ for the room. Out of the original $30 they have $1 each back, that's $3 and the bellboy has $2, so in total they paid $25 for the room, not $27 and it's $8.33~ each. $25 plus the $3 they got back, plus the $2 the bellboy has is $30. But if we say since they paid $10 to start and got $1 back that they paid $9 each and it totals $27 and the bellboy has $2 totalling $29, it looks like $1 is missing.

    I don't know how to explain it any better. No money is missing, but you can see how major corporate accounts cook their books all the time.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
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    Of course 25+3+2=30 but I'm stuck in the 30/3=10-1=9 each x 3 = 27 + 2 = 29 part. Maybe I'll catch it when the time isn't 1.30am and I've had some sleep though.
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    Ahnimus wrote:
    Well, basically the story is wrong.

    It's just a mathematical trick. If you think of it in different terms. They each paid $8.33~ for the room. Out of the original $30 they have $1 each back, that's $3 and the bellboy has $2, so in total they paid $25 for the room, not $27 and it's $8.33~ each. $25 plus the $3 they got back, plus the $2 the bellboy has is $30. But if we say since they paid $10 to start and got $1 back that they paid $9 each and it totals $27 and the bellboy has $2 totalling $29, it looks like $1 is missing.

    I don't know how to explain it any better. No money is missing, but you can see how major corporate accounts cook their books all the time.

    Ah yes, that's what I overlooked. That's quite confusing. It makes sense for me backwards... they had $30 and the room cost 25. They tip the bellboy 2 and are left with $3. I wanna figure out how that trick works though, it's doing my head in right now.
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    bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 15,552
    Of course 25+3+2=30 but I'm stuck in the 30/3=10-1=9 each x 3 = 27 + 2 = 29 part. Maybe I'll catch it when the time isn't 1.30am and I've had some sleep though.

    In the end, all three paid $9 for the room that ended up costing $25. The remaining $2 (difference between $25 and the $27 paid by the three guys) was given to the bellboy.

    Look at it this way. They originally paid $30. They only needed to pay $25, therefore, they were due $5. They got five dollars, but gave two to the bellman.
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    bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 15,552
    Ahnimus wrote:
    Another example:

    This guy George Tenet of the CIA tells Don Rumsfeld of the DoD that Saddam doesn't have a weapons program or mobile chemical laboratories and the Niger yellowcake theory was false.

    Don Rumsfeld goes to Dick Cheney and says it's all true. Dick Cheney goes to Colin Powell and says "here is your speech for the UN"

    Colin Powell goes to the UN and says "We know Iraq has WMDs, mobile chemical laboratories and purchased yellowcake from Niger"

    Dick Cheney goes on television and says "We know where the weapons are, they are north, south, east and west of Baghdad, in that area."

    The story ends when we find out that they were all full of shit and omitted the conflicting evidence and findings of the CIA.

    This example is a bit easier to figure out though.

    Where does the $30 come in again?
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    AhnimusAhnimus Posts: 10,569
    I like this math because if we say...

    They paid $25 / 3 = $8.3333333333333333333333333333333

    They got $1 of the original $10 investment, so $9 total spent, each.

    $9 - $8.3333333333333333333333333333333 = $0.66666666666666666666666666666667

    0.66666666666666666666666666666667 x 3 = $2

    So then we can say that $2 is the Bellboys.

    $25 + $2 = $27

    The other $3 was returned to the 3 men.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
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    AhnimusAhnimus Posts: 10,569
    Where does the $30 come in again?

    It was just meant as an example of how deception could be easy. I bet if that really happened they would have capped the cook. Well maybe if it was more than $1. Say $100 dollars, it works just aswell with larger numbers.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
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    bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 15,552
    Ahnimus wrote:
    It was just meant as an example of how deception could be easy. I bet if that really happened they would have capped the cook. Well maybe if it was more than $1. Say $100 dollars, it works just aswell with larger numbers.

    Is Cheney the cook? I'm so confused.
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    hailhailkchailhailkc Posts: 582
    In the end, all three paid $9 for the room that ended up costing $25. The remaining $2 (difference between $25 and the $27 paid by the three guys) was given to the bellboy.

    Look at it this way. They originally paid $30. They only needed to pay $25, therefore, they were due $5. They got five dollars, but gave two to the bellman.

    Yeah, it's kind of a game of semantics.

    The question is…do you really wanna break down a total of two $2 dollar bills into change in order to divide it equally up between three people as best you can...or...do you just give the bellboy the $2 and not worry about your "loss".
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    AhnimusAhnimus Posts: 10,569
    Is Cheney the cook? I'm so confused.

    Hehe, well the Cheney/Rumsfeld thing is much easier to figure out.

    They fucking lied and were caught doing it. It's just amazing how many people believe Iraq had WMDs even after.

    Just like with this equation, for many people, if never explained to them, they will always be wondering where the other $1 is.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
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    bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 15,552
    No, the cook was the American spirit. I get it now.
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    hailhailkchailhailkc Posts: 582
    It's like buying something for a total of $6.02 cents when the tax has been figured in, and handing the clerk a $10 bill, and he/she gives you $4 back.

    It's just a lot easier than fumbling around with .98 cents.

    Well...kinda like that...:D
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    Human TideHuman Tide Posts: 319
    Is Cheney the cook? I'm so confused.

    No, Cheney's the dick. Har Har.
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    hailhailkchailhailkc Posts: 582
    No, the cook was the American spirit. I get it now.

    The cook was white, and bald, and fat, and a Republican…and he lived in the suburbs…and owned a handgun, and watched American Idol.

    And drank domestic beer.
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    miller8966miller8966 Posts: 1,452
    hailhailkc wrote:
    The cook was white, and bald, and fat, and a Republican…and he lived in the suburbs…and owned a handgun, and watched American Idol.

    And drank domestic beer.

    Its better than havign him cry alot, hug trees, actually participate in protests, be a vegetarian, and do drugs.
    America...the greatest Country in the world.
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    hailhailkchailhailkc Posts: 582
    miller8966 wrote:
    Its better than havign him cry alot, hug trees, actually participate in protests, be a vegetarian, and do drugs.

    I know. I was being sarcastic. I'm white, bald, Republican, live in the suburbs, and enjoy a good domestic brew just about every weekend.
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    acutejamacutejam Posts: 1,433
    Ahnimus wrote:
    Well, basically the story is wrong.

    It's just a mathematical trick. If you think of it in different terms. They each paid $8.33~ for the room. Out of the original $30 they have $1 each back, that's $3 and the bellboy has $2, so in total they paid $25 for the room, not $27 and it's $8.33~ each. $25 plus the $3 they got back, plus the $2 the bellboy has is $30. But if we say since they paid $10 to start and got $1 back that they paid $9 each and it totals $27 and the bellboy has $2 totalling $29, it looks like $1 is missing.

    I don't know how to explain it any better. No money is missing, but you can see how major corporate accounts cook their books all the time.

    Wow. And to think you can't figure out what a human shield is....
    [sic] happens
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    hailhailkchailhailkc Posts: 582
    acutejam wrote:
    Wow. And to think you can't figure out what a human shield is....

    Uh, oh. :D This should be interesting…
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    acutejamacutejam Posts: 1,433
    Well he asked in two or three threads yesterday and I'm just here to help.
    He never said thank you....
    [sic] happens
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    AhnimusAhnimus Posts: 10,569
    acutejam wrote:
    Wow. And to think you can't figure out what a human shield is....

    I know what a "human shield" is, I've actually read HRW's definition of it.

    My question was, where is the proof that Hibullah uses "human shields"?

    It's kind of like this math problem, how many people walk away not actually knowing where the $1 went but figuring it's justified anyway. I haven't seen any evidence of Hizbullah using Human Shields and until I do, I will continue to question the result.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
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    hailhailkchailhailkc Posts: 582
    Ahnimus wrote:
    I know what a "human shield" is, I've actually read HRW's definition of it.

    My question was, where is the proof that Hibullah uses "human shields"?

    It's kind of like this math problem, how many people walk away not actually knowing where the $1 went but figuring it's justified anyway. I haven't seen any evidence of Hizbullah using Human Shields and until I do, I will continue to question the result.

    And what evidence do you have that clearly shows that Israel purposefully…PURPOSEFULLY…targets innocent civilians??? I haven't seen any of that. And don't show me a picture of a destroyed building in Lebanon, because that's not proof of anything. For all you know, the building could have been a base for staging operations for Hezzbollah, etc.

    And don't show me a pic of a dead child either, because you still can't prove that they were targeted ON PURPOSE.
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    bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 15,552
    Ahnimus wrote:
    I know what a "human shield" is, I've actually read HRW's definition of it.

    My question was, where is the proof that Hibullah uses "human shields"?

    It's kind of like this math problem, how many people walk away not actually knowing where the $1 went but figuring it's justified anyway. I haven't seen any evidence of Hizbullah using Human Shields and until I do, I will continue to question the result.

    They are firing their rockets out of civilian neighborhoods. They store their weapons in civilian neighborhoods. If that ain't proof enough, then you'll never get it. And the liberals say the Republicans have the blinders on.
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    AhnimusAhnimus Posts: 10,569
    hailhailkc wrote:
    And what evidence do you have that clearly shows that Israel purposefully…PURPOSEFULLY…targets innocent civilians??? I haven't seen any of that. And don't show me a picture of a destroyed building in Lebanon, because that's not proof of anything. For all you know, the building could have been a base for staging operations for Hezzbollah, etc.

    I haven't said that Israel "purposefully" targets innocent civilians. I think they target civilians believing there to be Hizbullah present and also they dropped leaflets warning the Lebonese people as justification if any civilians die. However, that doesn't work with the geneva convention. They still have to take care not to harm civilians and maintain proportionality.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
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    hailhailkchailhailkc Posts: 582
    Ahnimus wrote:
    I haven't said that Israel "purposefully" targets innocent civilians. I think they target civilians believing there to be Hizbullah present and also they dropped leaflets warning the Lebonese people as justification if any civilians die. However, that doesn't work with the geneva convention. They still have to take care not to harm civilians and maintain proportionality.

    Okay, fair enough. My bad. I apologize.
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    AhnimusAhnimus Posts: 10,569
    They are firing their rockets out of civilian neighborhoods. They store their weapons in civilian neighborhoods. If that ain't proof enough, then you'll never get it. And the liberals say the Republicans have the blinders on.

    Oh I see, so since "Bootlegger10" says it, it must be true. I've seen statements from both sides on this issue, but no one has delivered any proof either way.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
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