Earth 2025

Ahnimus
Ahnimus Posts: 10,560
edited December 2006 in A Moving Train
So, NIST is planning to have intelligent systems that surpass human efficiency by 2025.

Power Point
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/institute/resources/2006/Almaden%20Institute%20James%20Albus.ppt

Excerpts from Power Point:
Computational Power - speed and memory that rival the brain - >10^10 ops, heading for > 10^15 ops.
Computing power of human brain ~ 10^13 - 10^16 ops
Today's supercomputer > 10^14 ops

Forecast
2010 - LADAR cameras provide the range, resolution, and speed to cope with dense traffic

2015 - Cognitive reasoning capabilities enable useful tactical behaviors on the battlefield

2020 - Cognitive reasoning and tactical behaviors approach human levels of performance

2025 - Autonomous combat vehicles surpass human levels of performance in most, if not all, areas.

"We live at a unique point in the history of science. The technology to discover and characterize how the subjective mind emerges out of the objective brain is within reach. The next years will prove decisive."
-- Christof Koch
from The Quest for Consciousness (2004)


Google Video - IBM presentation
http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=200924984898632631&q=brain+duration%3Along
I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
Post edited by Unknown User on

Comments

  • jlew24asu
    jlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    Ahnimus wrote:
    Excerpts from Power Point:
    Computational Power - speed and memory that rival the brain - >10^10 ops, heading for > 10^15 ops.
    Computing power of human brain ~ 10^13 - 10^16 ops
    Today's supercomputer > 10^14 ops


    this definitely is something to think about but what can one conclude based on these numbers?

    supercomputers are exponentially gaining speed and processing power. I just dont understand how this can be compared to the brain.
  • Ahnimus
    Ahnimus Posts: 10,560
    jlew24asu wrote:
    this definitely is something to think about but what can one conclude based on these numbers?

    supercomputers are exponentially gaining speed and processing power. I just dont understand how this can be compared to the brain.

    They've tapped into some of the core functions of the brain, learned that the brain is neither analog nor digital and they are develope Neuromorphic computer chips to simulate brain processing. They are incorporating all kinds of knowledge from all kinds of sciences to produce something like cyborgs by 2025.

    It should be an interesting century.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
  • luxpjamer
    luxpjamer Posts: 837
    2025

    I'm gonna reign over the world hahahahahahhahahahaha
    Beavis : Is this Pearl Jam?
    Butt-head: This guy makes faces like Eddie Vedder.
    Beavis: No, Eddie Vedder makes faces like this guy.
    Butt-head: I heard these guys, like, came first and Pearl Jam ripped them off.
    Beavis: No, Pearl Jam came first.
    Butt-head: Well, they both suck.
  • enharmonic
    enharmonic Posts: 1,917
    that's all well and good, but one EMP bomb, and that's a mighty expensive conversation piece sitting on the battle field. The same cannot be said of a human being :)
    new music: http://www.myspace.com/blackbirdsymphonique

    old music: http://www.myspace.com/slowloader
  • Ahnimus
    Ahnimus Posts: 10,560
    enharmonic wrote:
    that's all well and good, but one EMP bomb, and that's a mighty expensive conversation piece sitting on the battle field. The same cannot be said of a human being :)

    Our brains operate on EM as well. Electrical Synapses in the brain. The only thing that protects us is our cranium. I'm sure we could come up with a synthetic cranium by 2025. In fact, all they'd have to do is wire everything with fibre optics and the cyborgs would be immune to EM interference.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
  • jlew24asu
    jlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    will a robot be able to out-smart a human? in terms of defense. which would make all humans prisoners by the turn of next century?
  • Ahnimus
    Ahnimus Posts: 10,560
    jlew24asu wrote:
    will a robot be able to out-smart a human? in terms of defense. which would make all humans prisoners by the turn of next century?

    That's the goal. Robots outsmarting humans that is. We could quite possible all fall to the control of machines. That would certainly be ironic.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
  • jlew24asu
    jlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    Ahnimus wrote:
    That's the goal. Robots outsmarting humans that is. We could quite possible all fall to the control of machines. That would certainly be ironic.

    thats fucked up but I dont see it becoming a problem until robots figure out how to pro-create themselves. humans can certainly stop that before it happens...right?
  • Ahnimus
    Ahnimus Posts: 10,560
    jlew24asu wrote:
    thats fucked up but I dont see it becoming a problem until robots figure out how to pro-create themselves. humans can certainly stop that before it happens...right?

    I'm pretty sure just like cars, any mass production of robots, will be done by robots.

    Not sure if we will be able to stop them, I guess that depends on the kind of panic mechanisms built in. Perhaps if we had like a panic button that caused them all to short out or something. I'm sure they will find ways to protect humanity.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
  • enharmonic
    enharmonic Posts: 1,917
    Ahnimus wrote:
    Our brains operate on EM as well. Electrical Synapses in the brain. The only thing that protects us is our cranium. I'm sure we could come up with a synthetic cranium by 2025. In fact, all they'd have to do is wire everything with fibre optics and the cyborgs would be immune to EM interference.

    I have a synthetic cranium right now. I fashioned it out of bellybutton lint. It is remarkable.
    new music: http://www.myspace.com/blackbirdsymphonique

    old music: http://www.myspace.com/slowloader
  • Ahnimus
    Ahnimus Posts: 10,560
    enharmonic wrote:
    I have a synthetic cranium right now. I fashioned it out of bellybutton lint. It is remarkable.

    I don't think you could survive as a conscious being in todays world without a cranium. There is far too much interference, we'd be vegetables.
    I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
  • Restless Soul
    Restless Soul Posts: 805
    jlew24asu wrote:
    thats fucked up but I dont see it becoming a problem until robots figure out how to pro-create themselves. humans can certainly stop that before it happens...right?


    Have you ever read a book called The Ice People by Maggie Gee?
    It's all about a futuristic world where robots do replicate themselves and get more powerful and intelligent each time. They do eventually take over the world but then the Ice Age comes and stops them.

    Sounds ridiculous but its a very good and plausible book.
    "We have to change the concept of patriotism to one of “matriotism” — love of humanity that transcends war. A matriarch would never send her own children off to wars that kill other people’s children." Cindy Sheehan
    ---
    London, Brixton, 14 July 1993
    London, Wembley, 1996
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    London, O2, 18 August 2009
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    Amsterdam, Afas Live (Ed solo), 10 June 2019



  • DOSW
    DOSW Posts: 2,014
    Ahnimus wrote:
    That's the goal. Robots outsmarting humans that is. We could quite possible all fall to the control of machines. That would certainly be ironic.

    Yeah, that really is very ironic. Scientists pretty much want robots to have the capability to overthrow humans, and yet they expect them not to.

    Doesn't sound like a winning formula for me. If robots would be smarter than us, then how could our inferior human ingenuity possibly stop them? They'd find ways around whatever we'd throw at them.
    It's a town full of losers and I'm pulling out of here to win
  • jlew24asu
    jlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    Ahnimus wrote:
    I'm pretty sure just like cars, any mass production of robots, will be done by robots.

    Not sure if we will be able to stop them, I guess that depends on the kind of panic mechanisms built in. Perhaps if we had like a panic button that caused them all to short out or something. I'm sure they will find ways to protect humanity.


    I think even we are smart enough to create a backdoor. like your panic button.
  • flywallyfly
    flywallyfly Posts: 1,453
    I saw Terminator, Terminator 2, and Terminator 3 ---> humans will lose. We already elected one of them governor. If your name is Sarah Connor I'd do some serious hiding soon.
  • Est1993
    Est1993 Posts: 14
    flywallyfly wrote:
    I saw Terminator, Terminator 2, and Terminator 3 ---> humans will lose. We already elected one of them governor. If your name is Sarah Connor I'd do some serious hiding soon.

    Lol! Good stuff.
  • DaytimeDilemma
    DaytimeDilemma Posts: 2,008
    I just hope they're not Decepticons.
  • NMyTree
    NMyTree Posts: 2,374
    I love Sarah Conner.

    We have assumed control...........We have assumed control.............We have assumed control........................We have assumed control.......

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