The Price of a Nuclear North Korea
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http://www.military.com/opinion/0,15202,116483,00.html
*Sorry for the cut/paste job. But its an interesting read.*
The Price of a Nuclear North Korea
Jim Clonts | October 10, 2006
This past weekend North Korea allegedly exploded its first atomic bomb. This atomic test represents the culmination of fifty years of failed foreign policy with this renegade Communist dictatorship by the United Nations and the United States. If it weren't for the UN and particularly the U.S., North Korea would have fallen a long time ago, either from within or from without. We have sustained the regime, fed its military and given its despot leaders credibility with their people.
North Korea is a textbook Communist police state complete with gulags, torture chambers, and human rights atrocities. It is one of the last pure Communist systems in the world and has been an unmitigated disaster for its people. Given the demands of its vast military forces, the North Koreans cannot produce the food or fuel required to sustain themselves. This is widely known among nations and contributes to the instability of the whole Korean Peninsula. South Korea, Japan and the United States have worried for years that if things got bad enough in the DPRK the people could be easily driven to war with the South. These fears are the basis of Kim's strategy. He actively promotes the idea that he has a vast, aggressive military force, and a restless population on the verge starvation, willing to answer the call to duty if it means food for their families.
For years North Korea has been the recipient of millions of tons of grain, fuel oil, and medicine from the United States. We thought we were running a carrot and stick strategy, but in reality it was Kim's strategy. It was simple and effective. They'd throttle up the rhetoric, threaten the South, threaten Japan or threaten to re-activate their nuclear weapons program. We'd step in and negotiate. Negotiation is what we call “writing them a check.” We'd give them billions of dollars worth of fuel oil and grain to ensure the peace would be maintained. Most countries could not hope to get away with a strategy like this, but it helps that Kim Jong Il is viewed in the West as just a little bit insane.
Kim is the perfect extortionist. He understands that his cooperation is worth food, fuel and hard cash. He might be insane, but he is not crazy. With a near-perfect understanding of the limits of the resolve of the United States and United Nations, he has embarked in the pursuit of the great equalizer, nuclear weapons. If the mere threat of armed invasion is worth billions in fuel and food, what will a nuclear threat buy?
The first American administration to deal with a true nuclear crisis in Korea was the Clinton Administration. President Clinton sent ex-President Jimmy Carter to negotiate with the North Koreans in 1994. In exchange for dropping their nuclear program, we would provide food, fuel and peaceful nuclear technology, including light water nuclear reactors. This type of “payoff” has been the lynchpin of our strategy with the North. It reminds me of a statistic I heard during my USAF officer training. Rather than fight the war, it would have been cheaper to pay every man, woman and child in Viet Nam, North and South, $50,000 each if they would cease fighting and live in peace. That is what we tried to do with North Korea during the Clinton Administration and did it get us? Essentially, we gave the bully on the block our lunch money so he wouldn't beat up our friend. The bully took the money, the fuel, the grain, and the nuclear technology and continued with his nuclear program anyway.
Kim Jong Il loves both attention and sticking it to America. Is it any wonder that on the eve of the Iraq War, North Korea announced they were resuming their nuclear program? He saw an opening, a chance to score big. He assumed President Bush would “buy him off” so we could focus our attention on Al Qaeda. For a Communist, it seems Kim has a good business sense. He underestimated President Bush's resolve. Bush said no and insisted on six-way, multi-national negotiations. I would have liked to have seen the look on Kim's face when he heard this. He must have thought, Doesn't Bush get it? Just send me Condi Rice and her checkbook and I'll go away for awhile. My God, even Clinton understood that.
What does the Beloved Leader want with nukes? Does he want to incinerate South Korea? No. He wants to occupy South Korea. Does he want to turn Tokyo into a charcoal briquette? Maybe. There is no love lost between the Koreans and the Japanese. Does he want to nuke Seattle? No. He is smart enough to know we would turn his toxic waste dump of a country into glass. He has no ambitions of attacking America, only extorting us. He doesn't want to nuke Seattle. He wants to threaten to nuke Seattle. It's the ultimate trump card. We cannot threaten military action against him if he holds the West Coast at risk. We will have to pay him off, again and again. At some point he will extort the South. Surrender or else. This time the United States will sit on the sidelines. We will not risk the West Coast for Seoul.
This evil dictator has been called insane, but all indications I've seen is that he has a working strategy that keeps his failing economy afloat, his military fed and fueled, and his nuclear ambitions alive. This strategy may deliver the rest of the Korean Peninsula to his control. We gave him carrots when he deserved the stick, and now he's addicted to the carrots and may wield a pretty big stick himself.
President Bush's instincts not to continue to support this dictator with food, fuel and nuclear technology are correct, but will the political realities of a nuclear missile aimed at Los Angeles dictate another pay-off? We have to ask ourselves, “Have we really bought peace or just mortgaged a more deadly war for future generations?”
*Sorry for the cut/paste job. But its an interesting read.*
The Price of a Nuclear North Korea
Jim Clonts | October 10, 2006
This past weekend North Korea allegedly exploded its first atomic bomb. This atomic test represents the culmination of fifty years of failed foreign policy with this renegade Communist dictatorship by the United Nations and the United States. If it weren't for the UN and particularly the U.S., North Korea would have fallen a long time ago, either from within or from without. We have sustained the regime, fed its military and given its despot leaders credibility with their people.
North Korea is a textbook Communist police state complete with gulags, torture chambers, and human rights atrocities. It is one of the last pure Communist systems in the world and has been an unmitigated disaster for its people. Given the demands of its vast military forces, the North Koreans cannot produce the food or fuel required to sustain themselves. This is widely known among nations and contributes to the instability of the whole Korean Peninsula. South Korea, Japan and the United States have worried for years that if things got bad enough in the DPRK the people could be easily driven to war with the South. These fears are the basis of Kim's strategy. He actively promotes the idea that he has a vast, aggressive military force, and a restless population on the verge starvation, willing to answer the call to duty if it means food for their families.
For years North Korea has been the recipient of millions of tons of grain, fuel oil, and medicine from the United States. We thought we were running a carrot and stick strategy, but in reality it was Kim's strategy. It was simple and effective. They'd throttle up the rhetoric, threaten the South, threaten Japan or threaten to re-activate their nuclear weapons program. We'd step in and negotiate. Negotiation is what we call “writing them a check.” We'd give them billions of dollars worth of fuel oil and grain to ensure the peace would be maintained. Most countries could not hope to get away with a strategy like this, but it helps that Kim Jong Il is viewed in the West as just a little bit insane.
Kim is the perfect extortionist. He understands that his cooperation is worth food, fuel and hard cash. He might be insane, but he is not crazy. With a near-perfect understanding of the limits of the resolve of the United States and United Nations, he has embarked in the pursuit of the great equalizer, nuclear weapons. If the mere threat of armed invasion is worth billions in fuel and food, what will a nuclear threat buy?
The first American administration to deal with a true nuclear crisis in Korea was the Clinton Administration. President Clinton sent ex-President Jimmy Carter to negotiate with the North Koreans in 1994. In exchange for dropping their nuclear program, we would provide food, fuel and peaceful nuclear technology, including light water nuclear reactors. This type of “payoff” has been the lynchpin of our strategy with the North. It reminds me of a statistic I heard during my USAF officer training. Rather than fight the war, it would have been cheaper to pay every man, woman and child in Viet Nam, North and South, $50,000 each if they would cease fighting and live in peace. That is what we tried to do with North Korea during the Clinton Administration and did it get us? Essentially, we gave the bully on the block our lunch money so he wouldn't beat up our friend. The bully took the money, the fuel, the grain, and the nuclear technology and continued with his nuclear program anyway.
Kim Jong Il loves both attention and sticking it to America. Is it any wonder that on the eve of the Iraq War, North Korea announced they were resuming their nuclear program? He saw an opening, a chance to score big. He assumed President Bush would “buy him off” so we could focus our attention on Al Qaeda. For a Communist, it seems Kim has a good business sense. He underestimated President Bush's resolve. Bush said no and insisted on six-way, multi-national negotiations. I would have liked to have seen the look on Kim's face when he heard this. He must have thought, Doesn't Bush get it? Just send me Condi Rice and her checkbook and I'll go away for awhile. My God, even Clinton understood that.
What does the Beloved Leader want with nukes? Does he want to incinerate South Korea? No. He wants to occupy South Korea. Does he want to turn Tokyo into a charcoal briquette? Maybe. There is no love lost between the Koreans and the Japanese. Does he want to nuke Seattle? No. He is smart enough to know we would turn his toxic waste dump of a country into glass. He has no ambitions of attacking America, only extorting us. He doesn't want to nuke Seattle. He wants to threaten to nuke Seattle. It's the ultimate trump card. We cannot threaten military action against him if he holds the West Coast at risk. We will have to pay him off, again and again. At some point he will extort the South. Surrender or else. This time the United States will sit on the sidelines. We will not risk the West Coast for Seoul.
This evil dictator has been called insane, but all indications I've seen is that he has a working strategy that keeps his failing economy afloat, his military fed and fueled, and his nuclear ambitions alive. This strategy may deliver the rest of the Korean Peninsula to his control. We gave him carrots when he deserved the stick, and now he's addicted to the carrots and may wield a pretty big stick himself.
President Bush's instincts not to continue to support this dictator with food, fuel and nuclear technology are correct, but will the political realities of a nuclear missile aimed at Los Angeles dictate another pay-off? We have to ask ourselves, “Have we really bought peace or just mortgaged a more deadly war for future generations?”
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when it hits you, you feel to pain.
So brutalize me with music.”
~ Bob Marley
As with all the other "commi" war(s) that are fought. If it ends in a stalemate, which sometimes I wonder if the powers that be want it that way. The one side feeling neglected is going to try and push their weight around. And we seen what happened to US and Nato forces when the Chinese decided they had had enough of the Korean war. If it wasn't for the sea, the "good" guys would have marched all the way back home. Sure they put up a half decent fight to push back and the loony wanted to use some atomic weapons on them. But as we see with all the hot spots and this I can agree with the far right people. If you are going to show them a lesson, let it be so good they won't want to learn that lesson again. Then just shrug your shoulders at the peaceniks and get on with it. Problem solved. In a perfect world.
If only. Hind sights a bitch ain't it?
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