Seafood could collapse by 2050, experts warn
SuzannePjam
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Seafood could collapse by 2050, experts warn
Overfishing, pollution, warming are destroying stocks, study finds
MSNBC staff and news service reports
WASHINGTON - Clambakes, crabcakes, swordfish steaks and even humble fish sticks could be little more than a fond memory in a few decades.
If current trends of overfishing and pollution continue, by 2050 the populations of just about all seafood face collapse, defined as 90 percent depletion, a team of ecologists and economists warns in a study published in Friday’s issue of the journal Science.
“Whether we looked at tide pools or studies over the entire world’s ocean, we saw the same picture emerging. In losing species we lose the productivity and stability of entire ecosystems,” said lead author Boris Worm of Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada.
“I was shocked and disturbed by how consistent these trends are — beyond anything we suspected,” Worm said.
When ocean species collapse, it makes the ocean itself weaker and less able to recover from shocks like global climate change, Worm said.
“This research shows we’ll have few viable fisheries by 2050,” Andrew Sugden, international managing editor of Science, told reporters at a telephone news briefing. “This work also shows that it’s not too late to act.”
Added co-author Steve Palumbi of Stanford University: “Unless we fundamentally change the way we manage all the oceans species together, as working ecosystems, then this century is the last century of wild seafood.”
What was studied
The international team spent four years analyzing 32 controlled experiments, other studies from 48 marine protected areas and global catch data from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s database of all fish and invertebrates worldwide from 1950 to 2003.
The scientists also looked at a 1,000-year time series for 12 coastal regions, drawing on data from archives, fishery records, sediment cores and archaeological data.
“At this point 29 percent of fish and seafood species have collapsed — that is, their catch has declined by 90 percent. It is a very clear trend, and it is accelerating,” Worm said. “If the long-term trend continues, all fish and seafood species are projected to collapse within my lifetime — by 2048.”
He likened a diverse ocean environment to a diversified investment portfolio.
With lots of different species in the oceans, just as with lots of different kinds of investments, “You spread the risk around,” Worm said. “In the ocean ecosystem, we’re losing a lot of the species in our stock portfolio, and by that we’re losing productivity and stability. By losing stability, we’re losing the ability of the system to self-repair.”
“It looks grim and the projection of the trend into the future looks even grimmer,” he added. “But it’s not too late to turn this around. It can be done, but it must be done soon. We need a shift from single species management to ecosystem management. It just requires a big chunk of political will to do it.”
The researchers called for new marine reserves, better management to prevent overfishing by large trawling fleets and tighter controls on pollution.
In the 48 areas worldwide that have been protected to improve marine biodiversity, they found, “diversity of species recovered dramatically, and with it the ecosystem’s productivity and stability.”
While seafood forms a crucial concern in their study, the researchers were analyzing overall biodiversity of the oceans. The more species in the oceans, the better each can handle exploitation.
“Even bugs and weeds make clear, measurable contributions to ecosystems,” said co-author J. Emmett Duffy of the Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences.
Seafood industry not alarmed
The National Fisheries Institute, a trade association for the seafood industry, does not share the researchers alarm.
“Fish stocks naturally fluctuate in population,” the institute said in a statement. “By developing new technologies that capture target species more efficiently and result in less impact on other species or the environment, we are helping to ensure our industry does not adversely affect surrounding ecosystems or damage native species.
Seafood has become a growing part of Americans’ diet in recent years. Consumption totaled 16.6 pounds per person in 2004, the most recent data available, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That compares with 15.2 pounds in 2000.
Joshua Reichert, head of the private Pew Charitable Trusts’ environment program, pointed out that worldwide fishing provides $80 billion in revenue and 200 million people depend on it for their livelihoods. For more than 1 billion people, many of whom are poor, fish is their main source of protein, he said.
The research was funded by the National Science Foundation’s National Center for Ecological Synthesis and Analysis.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
Overfishing, pollution, warming are destroying stocks, study finds
MSNBC staff and news service reports
WASHINGTON - Clambakes, crabcakes, swordfish steaks and even humble fish sticks could be little more than a fond memory in a few decades.
If current trends of overfishing and pollution continue, by 2050 the populations of just about all seafood face collapse, defined as 90 percent depletion, a team of ecologists and economists warns in a study published in Friday’s issue of the journal Science.
“Whether we looked at tide pools or studies over the entire world’s ocean, we saw the same picture emerging. In losing species we lose the productivity and stability of entire ecosystems,” said lead author Boris Worm of Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada.
“I was shocked and disturbed by how consistent these trends are — beyond anything we suspected,” Worm said.
When ocean species collapse, it makes the ocean itself weaker and less able to recover from shocks like global climate change, Worm said.
“This research shows we’ll have few viable fisheries by 2050,” Andrew Sugden, international managing editor of Science, told reporters at a telephone news briefing. “This work also shows that it’s not too late to act.”
Added co-author Steve Palumbi of Stanford University: “Unless we fundamentally change the way we manage all the oceans species together, as working ecosystems, then this century is the last century of wild seafood.”
What was studied
The international team spent four years analyzing 32 controlled experiments, other studies from 48 marine protected areas and global catch data from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s database of all fish and invertebrates worldwide from 1950 to 2003.
The scientists also looked at a 1,000-year time series for 12 coastal regions, drawing on data from archives, fishery records, sediment cores and archaeological data.
“At this point 29 percent of fish and seafood species have collapsed — that is, their catch has declined by 90 percent. It is a very clear trend, and it is accelerating,” Worm said. “If the long-term trend continues, all fish and seafood species are projected to collapse within my lifetime — by 2048.”
He likened a diverse ocean environment to a diversified investment portfolio.
With lots of different species in the oceans, just as with lots of different kinds of investments, “You spread the risk around,” Worm said. “In the ocean ecosystem, we’re losing a lot of the species in our stock portfolio, and by that we’re losing productivity and stability. By losing stability, we’re losing the ability of the system to self-repair.”
“It looks grim and the projection of the trend into the future looks even grimmer,” he added. “But it’s not too late to turn this around. It can be done, but it must be done soon. We need a shift from single species management to ecosystem management. It just requires a big chunk of political will to do it.”
The researchers called for new marine reserves, better management to prevent overfishing by large trawling fleets and tighter controls on pollution.
In the 48 areas worldwide that have been protected to improve marine biodiversity, they found, “diversity of species recovered dramatically, and with it the ecosystem’s productivity and stability.”
While seafood forms a crucial concern in their study, the researchers were analyzing overall biodiversity of the oceans. The more species in the oceans, the better each can handle exploitation.
“Even bugs and weeds make clear, measurable contributions to ecosystems,” said co-author J. Emmett Duffy of the Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences.
Seafood industry not alarmed
The National Fisheries Institute, a trade association for the seafood industry, does not share the researchers alarm.
“Fish stocks naturally fluctuate in population,” the institute said in a statement. “By developing new technologies that capture target species more efficiently and result in less impact on other species or the environment, we are helping to ensure our industry does not adversely affect surrounding ecosystems or damage native species.
Seafood has become a growing part of Americans’ diet in recent years. Consumption totaled 16.6 pounds per person in 2004, the most recent data available, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That compares with 15.2 pounds in 2000.
Joshua Reichert, head of the private Pew Charitable Trusts’ environment program, pointed out that worldwide fishing provides $80 billion in revenue and 200 million people depend on it for their livelihoods. For more than 1 billion people, many of whom are poor, fish is their main source of protein, he said.
The research was funded by the National Science Foundation’s National Center for Ecological Synthesis and Analysis.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
"Where there is sacrifice there is someone collecting the sacrificial offerings."-- Ayn Rand
"Some of my friends sit around every evening and they worry about the times ahead,
But everybody else is overwhelmed by indifference and the promise of an early bed..."-- Elvis Costello
"Some of my friends sit around every evening and they worry about the times ahead,
But everybody else is overwhelmed by indifference and the promise of an early bed..."-- Elvis Costello
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Comments
note to self: run a muck in 2049
old music: http://www.myspace.com/slowloader
Thanks Suzanne, as always.
Anyway, this "call out" was also on the tv news yesterday here.
And I heard it before and not only once.
So since quite a while I try NOT to eat tuna, crabs or much fish in general.
- its getting tough -
and a ps. note to jlew24asu
of course you have heard a similar story about our natural resources' run out.
it is all related, it is all a result of our careless actions.
so swim with Stone and save the salmon
...the world is come undone, I like to change it everyday but change don't come at once, it's a wave, building before it breaks.
I just thought it was weird that natural resources AND seafood will run out on the same date. I'm gonna party like it 2049.
to me it is not weird that both seem to run out sooner then later,
cause I think in both cases, meaning fishing and kinda wasting our natural resources we DO exaggerate things those days.
And to me it is understood that scientists choose a date easy to keep,
kinda marking a middle,
cause up to date nobody can say if it takes 13 years or 44 years,
cause it depends also on our actions we choose the next 3 years.
So I guess I am gonna party like it already in 2010
...the world is come undone, I like to change it everyday but change don't come at once, it's a wave, building before it breaks.
I'm a little more skepitcal. The oceans have plenty of fish in them. I think we have only explored like 4% or something like that. natural resources, such as oil are very plentiful we just havent even found most of it yet.
while I agree we should be more responsible with regards to conservation, I dont see the world ending anytime soon.
And I am glad you do NOT see it ending any time soon!!
and you might be right!!!
Dunno, its maybe just me.
Usually I am an optimist but when it comes to the state of our planet, I am very pessimistic.
Since too long I hear all the time about the destruction we do to our earth.
I guess it is somewhat special in Germany cause the green party used all the environmental issues already in the early eightees. That was the time they got formed into a party and finally got some power.
It was also my teenage years where I started to get interested in world issues and philosophies and, hence, read too much.
Now the Greens were on power and the news are still discussing lots around those themes.
So, it is me who heard too much negative stuff, too often and too into detail, so I am personally just not sure anymore, if we really will catch up to the new living conditions that are forecast.
I do not think the world will end soon, nature will make its way,
hey hey its green,
but I think about the wide variety of our eco- system, about animals like ice- bears and some sort of fish, that are really in danger.
...and maybe even humans walk on the edge already.
...but as I said: I am glad you think different.
...the world is come undone, I like to change it everyday but change don't come at once, it's a wave, building before it breaks.
Changes are definitely happening, and at an ever increasing pace. But change is what you make it. Stand still and you'll get passed by. Adapt and you'll do fine. Personally I think humans have shown that their ability to adapt will more than keep pace with any environmental changes.
Will the changes be good or bad? Well that's up to the individual to decide.
when it hits you, you feel to pain.
So brutalize me with music.”
~ Bob Marley
I for myself think the changes will be bad.
I would miss ice bears badly,
and I would miss trees and safe calm weather that can be forecast.
I also would miss the imagination of a wonderland called ocean.
anyway,
need to go. its dark here already.
...the world is come undone, I like to change it everyday but change don't come at once, it's a wave, building before it breaks.
The Carribean and southern States just had their mildest and fewest hurricanes in years. Strange how the climate change fear mongerers forgot to update you, but every time there's a hurricane it's huge news to them.
Everything I've read says that the ocean levels are expected to rise.
when it hits you, you feel to pain.
So brutalize me with music.”
~ Bob Marley
when it hits you, you feel to pain.
So brutalize me with music.”
~ Bob Marley