Eastern U.S. to be scorching by 2080's (NASA)
my2hands
Posts: 17,117
holy-fuckiing-shit!
NASA study: Eastern U.S. to get hotter By SETH BORENSTEIN,
AP Science Writer
Thu May 10, 5:57 PM ET
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070510/ap_on_sc/hot_future
Future eastern United States summers look much hotter than originally predicted with daily highs about 10 degrees warmer than in recent years by the mid-2080s, a new NASA study says.
Previous and widely used global warming computer estimates predict too many rainy days, the study says. Because drier weather is hotter, they underestimate how warm it will be east of the Mississippi River, said atmospheric scientists Barry Lynn and Leonard Druyan of Columbia University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
"Unless we take some strong action to curtail carbon dioxide emissions, it's going to get a lot hotter," said Lynn, now a scientist at Hebrew University of Jerusalem. "It's going to be a lot more dangerous for people who are not in the best of health."
The study got mixed reviews from other climate scientists, in part because the eastern United States has recently been wetter and cooler than forecast.
Instead of daily summer highs in the 1990s that averaged in the low to mid 80s Fahrenheit, the eastern United States is in for daily summer highs regularly in the low to mid 90s, the study found. The study only looked at the eastern United States because that was the focus of the funding by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Lynn said.
And that's just the eastern United States as a whole. For individual cities, the future looks even hotter.
In the 2080s, the average summer high will probably be 102 degrees in Jacksonville, 100 degrees in Memphis, 96 degrees in Atlanta, and 91 degrees in Chicago and Washington, according to the study published in the peer-reviewed journal Climate.
But every now and then a summer will be drier than normal and that means even hotter days, Lynn said. So when Lynn's computer models spit out simulated results for July 2085 the forecasted temperatures sizzled past uncomfortable into painful. The study showed a map where the average high in the southeast neared 115 and pushed 100 in the northeast. Even Canada flirted with the low to mid 90s.
Many politicians and climate skeptics have criticized computer models as erring on the side of predicting temperatures that are too hot and outcomes that are too apocalyptic with global warming. But Druyan said the problem is most computer models, especially when compared to their predictions of past observations, underestimate how bad global warming is. That's because they see too many rainy days, which tends to cool temperatures off, he said.
There is an established link between rainy and cooler weather and hot and drier weather, said Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Rainy days means more clouds blocking the sun and more solar heat used to evaporate water, Druyan said.
"I'm sorry for the bad news," Druyan said. "It gets worse everywhere."
Trenberth said the link between dryness and heat works, but he is a little troubled by the computer modeling done by Lynn and Druyan and points out that recently the eastern United States has been wetter and cooler than expected.
A top U.S. climate modeler, Jerry Mahlman, criticized the study as not matching models up correctly and "just sort of whistling in the dark a little bit."
But Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria, editor of the journal Climate but not of this study, praised the paper, saying "it makes perfect sense."
He said it shows yet another "positive feedback" in global warming, where one aspect of climate change makes something else worse and it works like a loop.
"The more we start to understand of the science, the more positive feedbacks we start to find," Weaver said.
Weaver said looking at the map of a hotter eastern United States he can think of one thing: "I like living in Canada."
___
On the Net:
The NASA paper: http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2007/Lynn_etal.html
NASA study: Eastern U.S. to get hotter By SETH BORENSTEIN,
AP Science Writer
Thu May 10, 5:57 PM ET
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070510/ap_on_sc/hot_future
Future eastern United States summers look much hotter than originally predicted with daily highs about 10 degrees warmer than in recent years by the mid-2080s, a new NASA study says.
Previous and widely used global warming computer estimates predict too many rainy days, the study says. Because drier weather is hotter, they underestimate how warm it will be east of the Mississippi River, said atmospheric scientists Barry Lynn and Leonard Druyan of Columbia University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
"Unless we take some strong action to curtail carbon dioxide emissions, it's going to get a lot hotter," said Lynn, now a scientist at Hebrew University of Jerusalem. "It's going to be a lot more dangerous for people who are not in the best of health."
The study got mixed reviews from other climate scientists, in part because the eastern United States has recently been wetter and cooler than forecast.
Instead of daily summer highs in the 1990s that averaged in the low to mid 80s Fahrenheit, the eastern United States is in for daily summer highs regularly in the low to mid 90s, the study found. The study only looked at the eastern United States because that was the focus of the funding by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Lynn said.
And that's just the eastern United States as a whole. For individual cities, the future looks even hotter.
In the 2080s, the average summer high will probably be 102 degrees in Jacksonville, 100 degrees in Memphis, 96 degrees in Atlanta, and 91 degrees in Chicago and Washington, according to the study published in the peer-reviewed journal Climate.
But every now and then a summer will be drier than normal and that means even hotter days, Lynn said. So when Lynn's computer models spit out simulated results for July 2085 the forecasted temperatures sizzled past uncomfortable into painful. The study showed a map where the average high in the southeast neared 115 and pushed 100 in the northeast. Even Canada flirted with the low to mid 90s.
Many politicians and climate skeptics have criticized computer models as erring on the side of predicting temperatures that are too hot and outcomes that are too apocalyptic with global warming. But Druyan said the problem is most computer models, especially when compared to their predictions of past observations, underestimate how bad global warming is. That's because they see too many rainy days, which tends to cool temperatures off, he said.
There is an established link between rainy and cooler weather and hot and drier weather, said Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Rainy days means more clouds blocking the sun and more solar heat used to evaporate water, Druyan said.
"I'm sorry for the bad news," Druyan said. "It gets worse everywhere."
Trenberth said the link between dryness and heat works, but he is a little troubled by the computer modeling done by Lynn and Druyan and points out that recently the eastern United States has been wetter and cooler than expected.
A top U.S. climate modeler, Jerry Mahlman, criticized the study as not matching models up correctly and "just sort of whistling in the dark a little bit."
But Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria, editor of the journal Climate but not of this study, praised the paper, saying "it makes perfect sense."
He said it shows yet another "positive feedback" in global warming, where one aspect of climate change makes something else worse and it works like a loop.
"The more we start to understand of the science, the more positive feedbacks we start to find," Weaver said.
Weaver said looking at the map of a hotter eastern United States he can think of one thing: "I like living in Canada."
___
On the Net:
The NASA paper: http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2007/Lynn_etal.html
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Comments
Admin
Social awareness does not equal political activism!
5/23/2011- An utter embarrassment... ticketing failures too many to list.
do you check the weather forecast for the weekend? ... or for any day for that matter?
yes I do... and notice the key word in my comment... accurately. I surely don't base plans totally on what they forecast. There are way too many times where they are less than accurate.
Admin
Social awareness does not equal political activism!
5/23/2011- An utter embarrassment... ticketing failures too many to list.
but you still check it?
either way - these are long-term implications based on models that aren't necessarily completely accurate but they get better and better ... reports like these always have to be looked at objectively ...
just note that many are conservative in their estimations ... for example models in the late 90's predicted a decrease in sea ice and glaciation ... well, they were wrong - but wrong because it was too conservative ... we are losing sea ice and glaciers much much faster then predicted ...
the implications of climate change are already upon us ... the severe weather we are experiencing and unusual weather patterns and disruption to ecosystems everywhere are proof enuf ... we will suffer far worst consequences well before 2080 i can guarantee you that ...
Sorry, I'm not trying to take away from your argument..................wait a minute...............................................
we can't stay here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THIS IS FEAR COUNTRY!
Everyone be scared by the big bad global warming....................and "Manbearpig" (1/3........... man....................69% bear, and a 1 percent out of a hundred.........Pig).
i'm done now, carry on.
Jesus, before we get worked up about this article, notice in a couple of places that the study has it critics and got mixed reviews.
Climatology predictions are only as good as the models. And I agree that we need to work on predicting this weekend's weather before we can start predicting the weather a century from now. Last month our weather tard told us on the 10pm news that it was going to be sunny and dry the rest of that week. I woke up to rain, and it rained the rest of that week. Of course they don't come on the next day and say "sorry I fucked up", they act like they knew it would, and then show a completely different graphic for the weekly outlook.
One of the conclusions they found after going through 28 years of data was that surface temperature was warmer on rainless days when compared to days when it rained and that surface temperature was coolest when it rained before the early afternoon sets in.
Wow, it must have taken a ton of research money to discover those startling facts.
This whole report's premise is basically saying that if it doesn't rain, then temperatures will go up and is predicting that 80 years from now there will be a significant dropoff in rain on the East Coast.
So to go back to the weather forecaster's analogy, they're predicting a clear, mostly rainless sumer 80 years from now. I'm going to buy that when I can't even get a five day forecast right from my local weatherman.
- 8/28/98
- 9/2/00
- 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
- 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
- 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
- 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
- 8/2/07, 8/5/07
- 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
- 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
- 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
- 9/11/11, 9/12/11
- 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
got it ... :rolleyes:
Not being able to predict weather changes 24 hours in advance lends little confidence that predictions a century in the future have any validity or accuracy... unless you are a true believer. Ya gotta have faith, faith, faith.
if you smoked 3 packs of smokes a day ... how many people can accurately predict when or if you will get lung cancer?
Bah!...fuck the future...
bloody NASA morons...what a bunch of dropout wannabe's....
fuck space too!...
and reveling in it's loyalty. It's made by forming coalitions
over specific principles, goals, and policies.
http://i36.tinypic.com/66j31x.jpg
(\__/)
( o.O)
(")_(")
I haven't seen it accurately done. They can talk about increased risk factors, and probability. They can also, ex post facto, say that 80% - 90% (I don't remember the exact figure) of lung cancer deaths were smokers.
So knowing this, is probably wise to stop smoking. And knowing that climate change occurs, it is probably wise to change behavior. BUT telling me that in 80 years it will be 102.8 degrees in Bumfuck, Arkansas is as idiotic as telling me that if I smoke 3 packs a day I'll develop lung cancer in 18.4 years and die 6 months later.
Did you actually read the actual journal entry? I usually don't comment on these things, but this is from the first paragraph of the summary and conclusions of the journal entry:
"Observations also showed that maximum surface temperatures in the Eastern United States are higher on rainless days and coolest when it rains during the daylight hours until early afternoon. (For the study daylight hours were 5:00 am to 2:00 pm, the rest of the time from 3:00 pm till 4:00 am were considered night time hours.) Moreover, the mean maximum surface temperature anomaly is negatively correlated with the fraction of rainy days each summer."
So basically their big observation was that rain keeps temperatures down.
Now we have one global warming group saying huge hurricanes and chaotic storms will hit the eastern US towards the end of the century and this group saying basically we will be in a drought and temperatures will climb 10 degrees.
So which global warming fear camp are you in: droughts or hurricanes?
Personally, I'm in neither.
- 8/28/98
- 9/2/00
- 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
- 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
- 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
- 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
- 8/2/07, 8/5/07
- 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
- 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
- 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
- 9/11/11, 9/12/11
- 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
We should ask what our best and brightest think...
and reveling in it's loyalty. It's made by forming coalitions
over specific principles, goals, and policies.
http://i36.tinypic.com/66j31x.jpg
(\__/)
( o.O)
(")_(")
these are long term implications ... that's it ...
my only point is the whole *can't predict weather tomorrow* line is lame ... we know general weather patterns, 4 seasons, heck if we didn't - farmers wouldn't know when to plant their crops ... just because micro-climates are highly volatile doesn't mean long term impacts of climate change can't be forecasted ...
wow general weather patterns... hell a little kid knows if you cross in the middle of traffic enough sooner or later you'll get hit by a car. That doesn't prove anything. Those general patterns don't dictate past temperatures or furture weather.
When they can't accurately forecast what happens with a storm front in a 300 sq mile area 24 hours in advance, why should I believe they know what the weather will be like in 10 years let alone 80 years, globally??? And as Solat stated, they said that rain during the day drops temps but when there is no rain the temps rises... real intellect there.
I wonder what they think will happen if it rains and the temps are cold....
Admin
Social awareness does not equal political activism!
5/23/2011- An utter embarrassment... ticketing failures too many to list.
they are giving you general weather patterns not the forecast for june 8, 2080 ... there is a difference ... but hey, they screwed up my weekend forecast must mean they don't know anyting ...
Why believe in an ice age? We weren't there and why should we believe that one actually happened. No pics or anything. Just to play the why believe a scientist game.
there is evidence to support an ice age... no evidence to support something that is going to happen in the future, just speculation.
polaris- forcasters predicted wamer temps for the northeast a few months ago (springtime and all) ... and what happened, rain, sleet, and snow in April. Yep very accurate.
Admin
Social awareness does not equal political activism!
5/23/2011- An utter embarrassment... ticketing failures too many to list.
And didn't they predict one of the worst hurricane seasons last year and that Katrina was just a precursor for the future.
I think last year was one of the mildest hurricane seasons on record.
- 8/28/98
- 9/2/00
- 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
- 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
- 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
- 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
- 8/2/07, 8/5/07
- 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
- 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
- 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
- 9/11/11, 9/12/11
- 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
the vertical wind shear last season offset the warmer temperatures - having said that - the pacific typhoon season was one of the hardest in recent memories ...
i have no idea what forecasters predicted for your area ... again - micro-climates can fluctuate a lot ... and again - this is not a forecast for a day or a week in 70+ years ... we are discussing overall changes ... so, your typical summer will be warmer and drier ...
we have bigger problems to deal with!!! Global warming is nothing compared to this!
For example, according to the recent INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE report: "Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5 degree Celcius."
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM13apr07.pdf
This weather-oriented report everyone is bashing is just one more voice in the chorus telling us we need to do something about climate change. Of course it's not perfect, but it does provide even more evidence (as if we need it) that we need to change our ways as far as energy development/consumption is concerned.
Stop splitting hairs.
survival of the fittest... Isn't that where evolution and adaptation come in??? Ohh wait I forgot, everything that is alive now on Earth has been here for millions of years and hasn't changed at all over that time ...
Admin
Social awareness does not equal political activism!
5/23/2011- An utter embarrassment... ticketing failures too many to list.
You should frame this quote and save it for your grandchildren so they can know what a good person you were...
actually, i find weather reports to be very accurate. i think that is a myth.