Citigroup says gold could rise above $2,000 next year as world unravels

NevermindNevermind Posts: 1,006
edited November 2008 in A Moving Train
An internal memo from a top Citibank analyst reveals what the banks really think about the global financial situation, and the outlook is grim.

"The world is not going back to normal after the magnitude of what they have done. When the dust settles this will either work, and the money they have pushed into the system will feed through into an inflation shock," wrote Tom Fitzpatrick, Citibank's chief technical strategist.

He goes on to explain that the massive money creation efforts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks will end with one of two things: A resurgence of inflation, or a fall into "depression, civil disorder and possibly wars." Either outcome, he says, will cause the price of gold to skyrocket. Gold will push to well over $2,000 per ounce, he explains.

The timing on all this? Sometime in either 2009 or 2010, said the analyst.

This coincides with predictions I've made here on NaturalNews.com, where I've publicly predicted price inflation of 20% - 40% in 2009, and the financial collapse of the United States government (sometime before 2025) due to an irreversible debt burden.

I've also predicted that when the people wake up and realize their dollars have been looted by the Treasury and turned into worthless pieces of paper, there will be riots in the streets.

These events have already been set into motion. It is now only a matter of time until they bubble to the surface. On the day the mainstream taxpayers actually figure all this out, don't be caught out in public. Stay home.
http://www.naturalnews.com/News_000556_gold_civil_unrest_financial_bailout.html
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Comments

  • HartydogHartydog Posts: 2,060
    There seems to be a lot of thought that once we get through this recession there will be inflation. Gold is often a hedge against inflation.
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  • saveuplifesaveuplife Posts: 1,173
    Nevermind wrote:
    An internal memo from a top Citibank analyst reveals what the banks really think about the global financial situation, and the outlook is grim.

    "The world is not going back to normal after the magnitude of what they have done. When the dust settles this will either work, and the money they have pushed into the system will feed through into an inflation shock," wrote Tom Fitzpatrick, Citibank's chief technical strategist.

    He goes on to explain that the massive money creation efforts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks will end with one of two things: A resurgence of inflation, or a fall into "depression, civil disorder and possibly wars." Either outcome, he says, will cause the price of gold to skyrocket. Gold will push to well over $2,000 per ounce, he explains.

    The timing on all this? Sometime in either 2009 or 2010, said the analyst.

    This coincides with predictions I've made here on NaturalNews.com, where I've publicly predicted price inflation of 20% - 40% in 2009, and the financial collapse of the United States government (sometime before 2025) due to an irreversible debt burden.

    I've also predicted that when the people wake up and realize their dollars have been looted by the Treasury and turned into worthless pieces of paper, there will be riots in the streets.

    These events have already been set into motion. It is now only a matter of time until they bubble to the surface. On the day the mainstream taxpayers actually figure all this out, don't be caught out in public. Stay home.
    http://www.naturalnews.com/News_000556_gold_civil_unrest_financial_bailout.html


    Inflation is not going to be a problem. We are in a recession. If anything, we are going to have a problem with deflation. But, I don't think that will be a problem either. Inflation may become a concern when we exit this recession, but that's normal. Inflation increases when economies grow.

    As for Gold, it's a safe haven in risky times. The price of gold always rises when there's a flight to safety. That said, I don't see gold prices rising much higher than they have been.... high-yield corporate credit spreads have reached cyclical highs in recent months.... highlighting the depressed risk appetite in the market.

    No, offense but the sky is dark, gloomy, and rainy... but, it's not falling.
  • edigerediger Posts: 308
    saveuplife wrote:
    Inflation is not going to be a problem. We are in a recession. If anything, we are going to have a problem with deflation. But, I don't think that will be a problem either. Inflation may become a concern when we exit this recession, but that's normal. Inflation increases when economies grow.

    As for Gold, it's a safe haven in risky times. The price of gold always rises when there's a flight to safety. That said, I don't see gold prices rising much higher than they have been.... high-yield corporate credit spreads have reached cyclical highs in recent months.... highlighting the depressed risk appetite in the market.

    No, offense but the sky is dark, gloomy, and rainy... but, it's not falling.

    attitudes like that will cause it fall. Problems this large need to be addressed immediately. If everyone to were just let this thing ride out, it wouldn't naturally get better. The financial system is a man-made system, it needs a man made solution. That being said, the methods used so far are waaaaaaaayyy off base.
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  • Nevermind wrote:
    "The world is not going back to normal after the magnitude of what they have done. When the dust settles this will either work, and the money they have pushed into the system will feed through into an inflation shock," wrote Tom Fitzpatrick, Citibank's chief technical strategist.

    Who the fuck is THEY?

    Is this guy a conspiracy nut or what?

    clearly he is way off base.

    call me when you guys have a credible source.
    this is ridiculous.
    ;)
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  • Is this guy a conspiracy nut or what?


    No, a guy who has a huge position in gold on the other hand is more likely
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  • prytojprytoj Posts: 536
    Sadly, this isn't really news at all. I have been preparing along these lines since the bailout was a foregone conclusion.

    And we are not in a deflationary period right now, with due respect to saveuplife. There are price reductions in certain sectors (gas, x-mas type stuff, housing) consistent with market forces right now, coupled with increases in other sectors (check your grocery bill lately?).

    When you print 5+ trillion dollars out of thin air, inflation is going to happen. There's no getting around that. Not to be all doom-and-gloom, but the only conclusion I have been able to reach is: this is a man-made crisis, not a man-made solution to a natural one. The banks are going to release all of this hoarded cash like a flood, resulting in mass inflation. The result of the crisis will be a push toward the North American Union and the demise of the dollar, which will spawn the birth of the Amero.

    You need to convert some/most of your cash reserves into metals as soon as possible, because you'll have to submit your cash to the bank in exchange for the new currency. The only problem is that the dollar will be worth a fraction of what it is now. Metals like gold and silver are your only protection.

    Even if this theory proves to be wrong, you're still safe with metals. Not with cash. Keep most in a safe deposit box, and hold a small amount in your safe at home so you don't have to worry about a run on the bank.

    Also, buy a water filtration system (which is pretty cheap at $250 or so) and enough food stores to last you about a year (rice, beans, peanut butter, etc.). A weapon is probably a good idea if you plan to protect your reserves. Do not discuss your preparations with anyone you know. Again, you can't go wrong by playing it safe.

    Pardon the length. I hope I'm wrong.
  • saveuplifesaveuplife Posts: 1,173
    ediger wrote:
    attitudes like that will cause it fall. .

    What does that even mean?
    ediger wrote:
    Problems this large need to be addressed immediately. If everyone to were just let this thing ride out, it wouldn't naturally get better. The financial system is a man-made system, it needs a man made solution. That being said, the methods used so far are waaaaaaaayyy off base.

    They are markets. Advocation of socialist tools isn't helping your creditibility. Socialist-style fixes are all we have seen thus far... and they are not working. Let markets work. Recessions happen... let them.
  • bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 16,066
    saveuplife wrote:
    What does that even mean?



    They are markets. Advocation of socialist tools isn't helping your creditibility. Socialist-style fixes are all we have seen thus far... and they are not working. Let markets work. Recessions happen... let them.

    What is your end game? What does never-ending debt increases by the government lead to? What happens when the national deficit is 25 trillion?

    You related to the captain on the Titanic by chance?
  • I moved into government bonds. While the equities are taking a huge dump, it seems inflation and GB's are holding and moving up....this process goes hand in hand from my understanding.

    With the FED cranking out truckloads of fake money (counterfeit really) like never before, it seems all too likely that a massive inflationary trend is coming.
    Progress is not made by everyone joining some new fad,
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  • prytoj wrote:
    And we are not in a deflationary period right now, with due respect to saveuplife

    Actually the Federal Reserve FOMC minutes from last meeting do reflect fears of deflation. It seems to be looming as a very real possibility.
    Looking ahead, the FOMC said further rate cuts may be necessary. Most of the risks were to the downside, with some participants concerned about a "negative spiral in which financial strains lead to weaker spending, which in turn leads to high loan losses and a further deterioration in financial conditions."
    -source
    prytoj wrote:
    There are price reductions in certain sectors (gas, x-mas type stuff, housing) consistent with market forces right now, coupled with increases in other sectors (check your grocery bill lately?).

    Yep.
    Price stability is not a science, as the Federal Reserve is figuring out the hard way.
    This entire event has really taught me a lot about the incredible volatility of forces in the market during a monetary crisis. Processes with great momentum behind them can be swung 180 degrees in a heartbeat if certain other conditions are triggered.

    In the case of inflation and deflation, i think you are taking too simplistic of an approach, and are ignoring larger contextual references.
    prytoj wrote:
    When you print 5+ trillion dollars out of thin air, inflation is going to happen. There's no getting around that.

    Like i was saying, you need to widen your view.
    Everything is relative, especially in the wild wacky world of economics.

    Firstly, we have not printed 5+ trillion dollars.
    The US Government has racked up an obligation for close to 8 trillion
    See here:
    Bloomberg wrote:
    Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government is prepared to
    provide more than $7.76 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers
    after guaranteeing $306 billion of Citigroup Inc. debt yesterday.

    And, sure we are printing money like never before:
    wrote:
    Federal Reserve lending
    last week was 1,900 times the weekly average for the three years
    before the crisis.
    -source

    But we have not printed any where close to trillions yet, i don't think.
    And the global "money" supply has shrunk by many trillions of dollars.

    We are up against not only that.
    Along with having lost "real" wealth in the markets -- housing, equities, oil, and some metals -- we are also facing potentially devastating reductions in global demand.

    While there is obviously no telling what is going to happen for certain,
    it seems like inflation will have to wait.
    Certainly, there is the chance for moderate to severe, and even potentially catastrophic inflation ...
    but in the short term, seemingly paradoxically, there is the very real possibility of an uncontrollable deflationary spiral occurring.
    prytoj wrote:
    The banks are going to release all of this hoarded cash like a flood, resulting in mass inflation. The result of the crisis will be a push toward the North American Union and the demise of the dollar, which will spawn the birth of the Amero.

    The banks may actually be up against a pretty strong incentive not to lend. If deflation does occur, and with the Fed very close to the nominal rate floor, the real interest rate would go negative. Banks would be losing money by lending dollars that, if they simply held them, would increase in value with no effort simply due to deflation. Banks would just hold their cash during deflation, and watch their dollars grow more valuable.

    Ayway.

    I agree with you that forces are pushing us closer and closer to permanent global financial regulatory and governmental structures, along with the possibility of further currency regionalization.

    I also am feeling encouraged that all this disaster is waking people up quicker than the powers that be may have believed possible.

    So maybe we do have a reason for hope.

    And gold is good,
    but they can always pull a 1933 and confiscate it all.
    :(

    Anyhow.
    I'm out.
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    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • saveuplifesaveuplife Posts: 1,173
    What is your end game? What does never-ending debt increases by the government lead to? What happens when the national deficit is 25 trillion?

    You related to the captain on the Titanic by chance?


    What the F are you talking about? I never said that debt increases by the government do not affect the economy. Please re-read my posts (especially the one you quoted) and then respond accordingly.
  • prytojprytoj Posts: 536
    Actually the Federal Reserve FOMC minutes from last meeting do reflect fears of deflation. It seems to be looming as a very real possibility.

    -source



    Yep.
    Price stability is not a science, as the Federal Reserve is figuring out the hard way.
    This entire event has really taught me a lot about the incredible volatility of forces in the market during a monetary crisis. Processes with great momentum behind them can be swung 180 degrees in a heartbeat if certain other conditions are triggered.

    In the case of inflation and deflation, i think you are taking too simplistic of an approach, and are ignoring larger contextual references.



    Like i was saying, you need to widen your view.
    Everything is relative, especially in the wild wacky world of economics.

    Firstly, we have not printed 5+ trillion dollars.
    The US Government has racked up an obligation for close to 8 trillion
    See here:


    And, sure we are printing money like never before:
    -source

    But we have not printed any where close to trillions yet, i don't think.
    And the global "money" supply has shrunk by many trillions of dollars.

    We are up against not only that.
    Along with having lost "real" wealth in the markets -- housing, equities, oil, and some metals -- we are also facing potentially devastating reductions in global demand.

    While there is obviously no telling what is going to happen for certain,
    it seems like inflation will have to wait.
    Certainly, there is the chance for moderate to severe, and even potentially catastrophic inflation ...
    but in the short term, seemingly paradoxically, there is the very real possibility of an uncontrollable deflationary spiral occurring.



    The banks may actually be up against a pretty strong incentive not to lend. If deflation does occur, and with the Fed very close to the nominal rate floor, the real interest rate would go negative. Banks would be losing money by lending dollars that, if they simply held them, would increase in value with no effort simply due to deflation. Banks would just hold their cash during deflation, and watch their dollars grow more valuable.

    Ayway.

    I agree with you that forces are pushing us closer and closer to permanent global financial regulatory and governmental structures, along with the possibility of further currency regionalization.

    I also am feeling encouraged that all this disaster is waking people up quicker than the powers that be may have believed possible.

    So maybe we do have a reason for hope.

    And gold is good,
    but they can always pull a 1933 and confiscate it all.
    :(

    Anyhow.
    I'm out.

    Some good points here, but quickly:

    What's ignored in your points are the reflection of the dollars the Fed has already printed in the very recent past. While the Fed may have commited to do more, what's already been done has indeed been done.

    The Fed saying anything about deflationary fears, well, I frankly look at motives first before I take them at face value. Bernanke and Paulson have proven themselves to be liars many times over.

    The banks and their incentives: the point that deflation actually makes their hoarded dollars more valuable is well taken. But whichever way the dollar goes, the banks will find a way to work that to their advantage.

    I am a monetary novice, and I do seek to expand my relatively narrow view. I try to see the forest from the trees, so while my conclusions may be simplistic, they are a reflection of the sum of what I do know. I thank you for the perspective.
  • prytoj wrote:
    Some good points here, but quickly:

    What's ignored in your points are the reflection of the dollars the Fed has already printed in the very recent past. While the Fed may have commited to do more, what's already been done has indeed been done.

    The Fed saying anything about deflationary fears, well, I frankly look at motives first before I take them at face value. Bernanke and Paulson have proven themselves to be liars many times over.

    The banks and their incentives: the point that deflation actually makes their hoarded dollars more valuable is well taken. But whichever way the dollar goes, the banks will find a way to work that to their advantage.

    I am a monetary novice, and I do seek to expand my relatively narrow view. I try to see the forest from the trees, so while my conclusions may be simplistic, they are a reflection of the sum of what I do know. I thank you for the perspective.

    Everything you've said here is sound.
    The only thing i think you are still missing is the following, which i will demonstrate in "simplistic" terms. ;)

    Total New "Money" Created: $5
    Total value of lost "money": $100
    Net Change: -$95
    Net Efect: DEFLATION

    Again,
    the government has guaranteed around 8.4 trillion at last count,
    effectively promising to double the current Federal Debt if needed.

    The total amount of new money added to the system by Fed and Treasury policy is a very hard number to pin down, but it is clearly well below the amount represented by the $8.4 trillion in guaranteed funds.

    That means that while the potential for inflation -- in net or aggregate economic terms -- certainly exists, and is indeed likely (and by many analysts expected) to take hold sometime in the near-to-mid future, the current reality is simply that the amount of lost existing wealth (which is continuing to spiral downward) is threatening to usurp or surpass the amount of newly created (inflationary) liquidity.

    I'm not even sure the experts at the top have a true picture of how much credit has really been generated, and how much leverageable wealth has really been lost.

    My guess is that the markets have lost at least around $2 trillion in value, soon to be 3,4,5, or 6 trillion ... and that on the other end, the Fed has added no more than $2 trillion in current liquidity.

    That would put the fears of deflation in very real possibility of occurance.
    I would say, honestly, in account of the media and government's observed inability to accurately estimate and predict unfolding events 2-4 months out at best, and 2 years or more at worst, that we are probably already in moderate deflation and moving towards substantial to severe deflation, and that we will "hear about it" in 2-4 months. ;)
    Of course, who knows how much more liquidity the Fed will be "forced" to provide between now and then.

    Anyhow.
    That is just my take.
    I am by no means an economist,
    and i will admit to not being very informed about the larger numbers (like what used to be refered to as "M3" statistics, or total market valuations and such) ... but i'm pretty sure that what i wrote is a fairly accurate representation of the situtation.

    Beyond that, i mean no disrespect here, and hope i said something useful.
    :D
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  • I just thought of this, and this is a reason why currently there will be no inflation. With the banks hoarding cash, they're greatly reducing the money supply.

    I don't feel like explaining the whole theory, but it's basically due to the money multiplier (or rather the inverse effect now that no one is lending).


    In addition to all the lost wealth in the market, I don't think inflation will be a big problem. These are some initial thoughts, I have to break out my macro book I think :P
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  • saveuplifesaveuplife Posts: 1,173
    Lesbelges wrote:
    I just thought of this, and this is a reason why currently there will be no inflation. With the banks hoarding cash, they're greatly reducing the money supply.

    I don't feel like explaining the whole theory, but it's basically due to the money multiplier (or rather the inverse effect now that no one is lending).


    In addition to all the lost wealth in the market, I don't think inflation will be a big problem. These are some initial thoughts, I have to break out my macro book I think :P



    You're outcome is right...

    As aggregate demand falls, so will the inflation rate. It's in your textbook and it's also evident in the data.
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