Hurrican Season?

know1know1 Posts: 6,794
edited August 2006 in A Moving Train
Could the hurricane season really be 1/3 over and there have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic yet?

What happened to the "busier than normal" season as predicted by "scientists" and attributed to "global warming"?

(and apparently I do not know how to spell hurricane!)
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Comments

  • blackredyellowblackredyellow Posts: 5,889
    They are all waiting until the end of October when I am in Jamaica for my honeymoon.
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  • know1know1 Posts: 6,794
    They are all waiting until the end of October when I am in Jamaica for my honeymoon.

    Hmm...I know someone who will be in Jamaica at the same time for their honeymoon.
    The only people we should try to get even with...
    ...are those who've helped us.

    Right 'round the corner could be bigger than ourselves.
  • inmytreeinmytree Posts: 4,741
    is this a global warming thread...?

    remember, god exists and global warming does not...
  • polarispolaris Posts: 3,527
    the peak of the hurricane season is mid august to mid october ... re-post this thread when that time hits ...

    i'm glad you can ignore the massive heatwave in california, midwest and eastern states as well as europe ... i'm glad you can ignore the flash flooding in ohio and i'm glad you can ignore the typhoon season currently happening in asia ...
  • know1know1 Posts: 6,794
    This isn't a thread about global warming per se. Just wondering what happened to the gloom and doom. I remember that the start of the season was a big news story, but it sure has faded fast.
    The only people we should try to get even with...
    ...are those who've helped us.

    Right 'round the corner could be bigger than ourselves.
  • NCfanNCfan Posts: 945
    know1 wrote:
    This isn't a thread about global warming per se. Just wondering what happened to the gloom and doom. I remember that the start of the season was a big news story, but it sure has faded fast.

    Na, Polaris is right... I live in North Carolina, and we rarely get a hurricane before the end of August. They usually start rolling out of the Atlantic into the gulf or up the East coast in September and continue strong through October. By November it's pretty much over with.

    So the vast majority of anything that will happen, usually occurs in September/October.

    But besides all of that... predicting how many hurricanes there will be in a year is kinda dumb. My parents live right on the coast and they could care less how many somebody is predicting - they just care when one is coming their way.

    Besides, the news media over hypes the shit our of hurricanes...... Go Jim Cantore!
  • 1970RR1970RR Posts: 281
    polaris wrote:
    the peak of the hurricane season is mid august to mid october ... re-post this thread when that time hits ...

    i'm glad you can ignore the massive heatwave in california, midwest and eastern states as well as europe ... i'm glad you can ignore the flash flooding in ohio and i'm glad you can ignore the typhoon season currently happening in asia ...
    Is there any weather event you dont ascribe to global warming? Were there ever any severe weather events in years past and if so, what is to blame for them?
  • know1know1 Posts: 6,794
    NCfan wrote:
    Na, Polaris is right... I live in North Carolina, and we rarely get a hurricane before the end of August. They usually start rolling out of the Atlantic into the gulf or up the East coast in September and continue strong through October. By November it's pretty much over with.

    So the vast majority of anything that will happen, usually occurs in September/October.

    But besides all of that... predicting how many hurricanes there will be in a year is kinda dumb. My parents live right on the coast and they could care less how many somebody is predicting - they just care when one is coming their way.

    Besides, the news media over hypes the shit our of hurricanes...... Go Jim Cantore!

    Wouldn't it make sense that if hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, that the highest concentration should theoretically come near the mid point? And yes, that would be the end of August, but we are well behind at this point.
    The only people we should try to get even with...
    ...are those who've helped us.

    Right 'round the corner could be bigger than ourselves.
  • Pacomc79Pacomc79 Posts: 9,404
    if it bleeds it leads.

    now, a lot of this stuff people debate on has a lot of truth in it, cause and effect that type of thing, the trouble arises when you get too much of the gloom and doom type arguments. It's simply that gloom and doom are far, far more interesting than a more truthful but moderate approach. The fringe opinion will always make more money, because that's what impassions people.
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  • RainDogRainDog Posts: 1,824
    know1 wrote:
    Wouldn't it make sense that if hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, that the highest concentration should theoretically come near the mid point? And yes, that would be the end of August, but we are well behind at this point.
    No, I believe hurricane seasons tend to "speed up" in the last half before tapering off - more of an end heavy wave than a bell curve.

    Of course, that's just my observation from living in a hurricane prone area for the last five years - and may simply be the pattern for the Gulf Coast.
  • RainDogRainDog Posts: 1,824
    For example (and I just looked this up) - Katrina hit on August 29th and was preceeded by 10 named storms. It was followed by sixteen.
  • RushlimboRushlimbo Posts: 832
    know1 wrote:
    Could the hurricane season really be 1/3 over and there have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic yet?

    What happened to the "busier than normal" season as predicted by "scientists" and attributed to "global warming"?

    (and apparently I do not know how to spell hurricane!)


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  • polarispolaris Posts: 3,527
    1970RR wrote:
    Is there any weather event you dont ascribe to global warming? Were there ever any severe weather events in years past and if so, what is to blame for them?

    climate change scientists have long indicated that we will have an increase in extreme weather events - more so than what is "normal" ... is it possible that there would have been a flood in ohio without the impacts of climate change? ... sure, maybe ... but, in no way would we have the number of significant events ...

    now, this is just what we can see on a daily basis - we haven't even gotten into the impacts associated with disease and animal extinctions and migration routes ... which are harder to get across to the average person ...

    do you not believe in the science of climate change? ... do you think that this heat wave across the northern hemisphere is "normal"?

    as for the doom and gloom - again, people have to ask themselves what consequences they are prepared to accept ... its easy living in north america where we have this high standard of living to ignore the fallout to others ... how many have died this year alone due to the heat and flooding throughout the world? ... it's too late for those people ...
  • dunkmandunkman Posts: 19,646
    know1 wrote:
    What happened to the "busier than normal" season as predicted by "scientists" and attributed to "global warming"?

    (and apparently I do not know how to spell hurricane!)


    considering the UK has just completed the hottest July since records began then global warming appears to be alive and well :)

    just because the US didnt get its "busier than normal" prediction by "scientists" (quite why the scientists are in quotations beats me) doesnt mean that the rest of the world is sitting with perfect weather....
    oh scary... 40000 morbidly obese christians wearing fanny packs invading europe is probably the least scariest thing since I watched an edited version of The Care Bears movie in an extremely brightly lit cinema.
  • Puck78Puck78 Posts: 737
    to have hurricanes you need sea surface temperatures >28C. That's why you need to wait usually (but we're talking about statistical distributions) after August. The sea reaches its maximum sea surface temperatures in September.
    What happened to the "busier than normal" season as predicted by "scientists" and attributed to "global warming"?

    not the scientists, but the journalists. While last year a paper in "nature" showed a possible link between the frequency of hurricanes and global warming, we're talking about statistical distributions that happen on climatological time scales. That means: usually to define an event relevant to climate you need a time serie of 30 or more years (no less than 30). So: if this year you had a storm or a lot of warmth, that's one extreme weather event, but you need to report it more or less regularly for about 30 years to associate it to climate change.
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