NDP Losing Votes to Liberals...Big Surprise
RockinInCanada
Posts: 2,016
Poll suggests Dion helping Liberals to regain NDP support
By JOHN WARD
OTTAWA (CP) - A new poll suggests Stephane Dion's victory in the Liberal leadership race has sapped support for the NDP and maybe even the Green party.
The Decima Research survey, conducted during the week following the former environment minister's win, suggested the Liberals had the support of 35 per cent of decided and leaning voters. That compared to 32 per cent for the Tories, 12 per cent for the NDP, 11 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois and seven per cent for the Green party.
Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said the New Democratic Party's support is not only down from last January's election, but it seems to be soft.
"I guess the question for the NDP is, if Stephane Dion is positioned as a centre-left, environmentally-preoccupied, social-justice-motivated leader, does that further put pressure on the NDP voter pool?," he said
"So far, I think, the evidence is yes it does. The NDP numbers are soft."
The results, made available exclusively to The Canadian Press, suggested that a quarter of people who voted NDP last time were ready to vote Liberal next time. Anderson said he'll keep watching that trend in future surveys.
"The early indication is the NDP vote is under pressure."
He also said the Green party is showing some signs of pressure as well, although the margin of error makes that difficult to pin down without a longer survey base.
"This looks like the first time that we've seen the Green number maybe be a little bit softer," he said.
He suggested that Dion's credentials on the environment could pose a challenge for the Greens.
"The election of Stephane Dion as Liberal party leader was probably, for the Green party, the worst possible outcome from that leadership convention."
The poll also suggests that the choice of Dion has bolstered Liberal support in Quebec to more than double the support of the Conservatives. That represents a sharp reversal from the election last January.
The new survey showed the Bloc with 45 per cent of voters, the Liberals with 27 per cent and the Tories with 12 per cent. The NDP had six per cent and the Green seven per cent.
"The big question coming out of the Liberal convention was would Stephane Dion work as an idea for the Liberals in the province of Quebec," said Anderson.
"So far, I think the evidence is more yes than no. He's been established as a leader in the minds of Quebecers and the Liberal party has a 15-point lead over the Conservatives in that province.
"Obviously they're still behind the BQ, but those are pretty good numbers for the Liberals."
In the last election, the Tories took 36.3 per cent of the vote across the country. The Liberals had 30.2 per cent, the NDP 17.5, the Bloc 10.5 and the Greens 4.5.
The survey was conducted between Dec. 7 and Dec. 11 as part of Decima's weekly national omnibus poll. It sampled 1,025 people and the results are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The poll was released a day before published reports in several newspapers suggested that Prime Minister Stephen Harper may shuffle his cabinet in early January in preparation for an election campaign in the spring.
Other reports said the Bloc was looking at Feb. 15 as the day it will try to bring down the minority Tory government with a motion of non-confidence over its handling of the Canadian military mission in Afghanistan. Parliament resumes sitting on Jan. 29.
I am not one surprised at this turn of events....this is exactly what I have been saying since last election...a multitude of NDP votes would stream back to the Liberals and push them, at worst, into a minority government with them leading....which is what I prefer...actually any minority works for me. I am starting like the Dion character, I think he is bright and different from past Liberals....I felt he handled the same-sex vote in stride and made a very key decision to allow a free vote for the Liberal party. I fully expect him to become our next leader....hopefully of a minority government just to ensure all the checks are in place. Also the Conservatives do not stand a chance in Quebec which will ultimately lead to their downfall...maybe next spring rumour has it.....
By JOHN WARD
OTTAWA (CP) - A new poll suggests Stephane Dion's victory in the Liberal leadership race has sapped support for the NDP and maybe even the Green party.
The Decima Research survey, conducted during the week following the former environment minister's win, suggested the Liberals had the support of 35 per cent of decided and leaning voters. That compared to 32 per cent for the Tories, 12 per cent for the NDP, 11 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois and seven per cent for the Green party.
Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said the New Democratic Party's support is not only down from last January's election, but it seems to be soft.
"I guess the question for the NDP is, if Stephane Dion is positioned as a centre-left, environmentally-preoccupied, social-justice-motivated leader, does that further put pressure on the NDP voter pool?," he said
"So far, I think, the evidence is yes it does. The NDP numbers are soft."
The results, made available exclusively to The Canadian Press, suggested that a quarter of people who voted NDP last time were ready to vote Liberal next time. Anderson said he'll keep watching that trend in future surveys.
"The early indication is the NDP vote is under pressure."
He also said the Green party is showing some signs of pressure as well, although the margin of error makes that difficult to pin down without a longer survey base.
"This looks like the first time that we've seen the Green number maybe be a little bit softer," he said.
He suggested that Dion's credentials on the environment could pose a challenge for the Greens.
"The election of Stephane Dion as Liberal party leader was probably, for the Green party, the worst possible outcome from that leadership convention."
The poll also suggests that the choice of Dion has bolstered Liberal support in Quebec to more than double the support of the Conservatives. That represents a sharp reversal from the election last January.
The new survey showed the Bloc with 45 per cent of voters, the Liberals with 27 per cent and the Tories with 12 per cent. The NDP had six per cent and the Green seven per cent.
"The big question coming out of the Liberal convention was would Stephane Dion work as an idea for the Liberals in the province of Quebec," said Anderson.
"So far, I think the evidence is more yes than no. He's been established as a leader in the minds of Quebecers and the Liberal party has a 15-point lead over the Conservatives in that province.
"Obviously they're still behind the BQ, but those are pretty good numbers for the Liberals."
In the last election, the Tories took 36.3 per cent of the vote across the country. The Liberals had 30.2 per cent, the NDP 17.5, the Bloc 10.5 and the Greens 4.5.
The survey was conducted between Dec. 7 and Dec. 11 as part of Decima's weekly national omnibus poll. It sampled 1,025 people and the results are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The poll was released a day before published reports in several newspapers suggested that Prime Minister Stephen Harper may shuffle his cabinet in early January in preparation for an election campaign in the spring.
Other reports said the Bloc was looking at Feb. 15 as the day it will try to bring down the minority Tory government with a motion of non-confidence over its handling of the Canadian military mission in Afghanistan. Parliament resumes sitting on Jan. 29.
I am not one surprised at this turn of events....this is exactly what I have been saying since last election...a multitude of NDP votes would stream back to the Liberals and push them, at worst, into a minority government with them leading....which is what I prefer...actually any minority works for me. I am starting like the Dion character, I think he is bright and different from past Liberals....I felt he handled the same-sex vote in stride and made a very key decision to allow a free vote for the Liberal party. I fully expect him to become our next leader....hopefully of a minority government just to ensure all the checks are in place. Also the Conservatives do not stand a chance in Quebec which will ultimately lead to their downfall...maybe next spring rumour has it.....
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Well the nationalists in Quebec will definetly bite into it.....thats a given....I like the guy really...gives off a good persona....well at least he takes that shit smell away from the Liberal party....for now at least....
For sure. When was the last time a Liberal leader actually permitted his caucus to vote freely? That earned my respect.
That is exactly what has lead me to take this guy seriously...Harper made a brilliant call for the same-sex debate at the right time (although I still think it is beating a dead horse)....he wanted to test how fleixble Dion was on the issue and Dion played the right cards back....very nice play...actually by both parties involved....I think this will be the last we hear of the issue...barring a Conservative majority, which I honestly believe will not happen in the near future....I like the minority set-up....just wish we would stop going to the polls every damn year and a half....
What you think of senate reform...I still think Harpers strategy sucks ass....PM still gets to pick the members....if they are going to do it PLEASE do it right so it actually represents the people.......we make the choice and that choice goes to power....not we make a choice and PM gets to pick who he sees fit.....
Harper's heart is in the right place. Senate reform is a MUST. But yes, his proposal is still allowing the PM to wield too much power. Really, Harper's stance on the issue resembles that of the Liberals. Lip service, but still trying to wiggle out of meaningful reforms. It pisses me off. I think part of the problem is the fear of stepping on too many political toes. No one wants to be the "radical" who actually changes a major political institution. Its the inherent conservatism of Canadian politics (conservatism as in a reluctance to change anything, I mean).
Yeah and just to let you know I am not cutting it because it is a Tory pledge...I was actually hoping for him to go all the way....I honestly believe many Canadians would have a desire to see the process changed....to me it would provide the best government check we could get.....to me he wants to live up to his pledge but seems unwilling to go all the way.....I'm shocked he isn't makes me wonder as I believe it would be received quite well....
Honestly, I think his desire is genuine ... He probably didn't realize just how many political ramifications there would be, though. Now he's on the hot seat and is going to have trouble working major changes. Why wouldn't him and Dion join forces to do this? And surely the NDP would be gung-ho as well. I don't know ... You'd think now would be the chance, given that Dion isn't such an "old boy" like the last two were. Like you said, he seems to be someone interested in reform ... Not entirely immune from the political sniping (I though it was telling that almost all of the Lib candidates spend more time bashing Harper than they did saying what THEY were going to actually freaking do), but a change for the better, hopefully.
Well you would think the NDP would go along...they are all for proportional voting (another thing I agree with)...obviously not the same but in the same ballpark.....Harper has a chance, and I am shocked that he doesn't, to really make a play to all parties with complete and needed senate reform....if the country is behind it and another party balks at the idea it will give some much needed ground during the next election (not that I want him to win....just how I see it)....curious to see if another party will question the "narrow-view" on the issue and call for, as I say complete senate reform, not half-assing it......
I hope somebody does! In fact, one wonders if that isn't Harper's strategy? Propose something that lacks teeth, hoping that someone else ups the ante ... Harper wins, but also gets to share the responsibility for major changes with someone else?
Maybe I'm overthinking it.
It would be....could be playing the cautious (well fake cautious if that is the case) route I guess with hope of someone doing it. I would not put in past the man....you know I really really dislike his social views however he is not a stupid man I will definetly give him that.....
He's a bit inexperienced, but he's canny. And a quick learner. I don't like all of his social views either, but he's actually coming across as pretty moderate, IMHO (with the possible exception of his public stance on the Lebanon war). Perhaps because he has no choice. His response to the gay marriage vote was classy, actually. Regardless of his personal feelings, he declared the issue dead because Parliament had spoken. No bitching about the sinners and whatnot ...
True he did show some class with the gay marriage thing...well I think he knows he is representing people from across Canada...I am sure there are some old Reform party back benchers there that see him as weak...but I think Harper knows that as a whole the country does not want to go down that path of social conservatism....he seems to be heading towards more of a PC path which does not bother me near as much.....
I read a great article last year in Calgary written by an old Tory MP who stated that the reason for the bleak outlook of Harper as Pm is the Reform aspect of the party...he refered to them as leeches I believe hell bent on getting their views in the forefront...he worried deeply that they would take Harper out....so far Harper has done the right thing by keeping those people at bay....BUT I know they are certainly not happy about it....to me there seems to be two elements to the current Conservative (well obviously since they merged but still) the progressives and the old boy Reform club.....the country does not find the progressives...however the majority, and this is where the fear mongering originates, comes from the Reform aspect of the party....a party to me will never fit into Canada as a whole.....reminds me of real Repunblicans down south who are appalled at the Bush administration and their extreme right wing idealogy.....to me at the current rate the Conservative party is slowly looking more progressive...are some members happy about it hell no.....but the more important thing is that the country views it better and I believe Harper knows this and Im glad he is aware of it.....
so ... he's gonna play the polls and politics to try and reposition himself when all along he had the opportunity to lead this country - he failed to do so ...
his rush to extend our mission in afghanistan was beyond horrible ... he used an ultimatum and a lame duck liberal party to pass a motion with very little debate or preparation ... now, we need help from NATO and he can't get it ...
his inaccessibility to reporters and his muzzling of mp's (cabinet ones too) continues to play against accountability principles he so champions ...
as for dion ... he needs to rid himself of the old school liberals who still think they own this country - he won't be able to get anything done with them still around ...
I coudn't agree more, l like the minority set up as well, it prevents one party from dictating to the rest of us, I just wish the federal government would focus more on the health care systems, Doctors are getting older and we don't have enough to replace them. I can see a real big problem in a few years if we don't get more Docs. Here in Ontario some ER,s are having a real tough time finding docs to cover shifts.
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon