Price of Oil to Drop Now ?!?
flywallyfly
Posts: 1,453
If a fly farts in the Middle East oil prices shoot up so I'm guessing if the market is true then oil prices will fall this week with this news ?!? I'm guessing not.
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http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/nov2007/db20071115_045316.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5
Brazil, the New Oil Superpower
State-run Petrobras' "monstrous" new oil find has wide-ranging implications for the South American country, the oil majors, oil services providers, and beyond
by Joshua Schneyer
In a recent radio broadcast, Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he's convinced a "higher power" has taken a shining to Brazil. That, he said, might explain the providence of state-run oil company Petrobras (PBR), whose colossal new oil discovery could transform Brazil from a barely self-sufficient producer into a major crude exporter.
Petrobras announced Nov. 8 it has found between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels of light oil and gas at the Tupi field, 155 miles offshore southern Brazil in an area it shares with Britain's BG Group and Portugal's Galp Energy. Tupi is the world's biggest oil find since a 12 billion-barrel Kazakh field was discovered in 2000, and the largest ever in deep waters. Perhaps more important, Petrobras believes Tupi may be Brazil's first of several new "elephants," an industry term for outsize fields of more than 1 billion barrels.
Initially, Tupi will produce about 100,000 barrels a day but may ramp up to as much as 1 million before 2020—more than the biggest U.S. field in Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, says Hugo Repsold, Petrobras' exploration and production strategy manager. "It's monstrous," says Matthew Shaw, a Latin America energy analyst at consultant Wood Mackenzie in London.
Blocking Private Companies
Given the discovery's magnitude, Tupi already is changing how Brazilians think about their oil riches. It even tempts the kind of oil nationalism that has prompted Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez to expropriate oil reserves and production infrastructure in Venezuela from oil majors ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).
Indeed, a day after Petrobras announced the Tupi discovery, Brazil said it would remove 41 oil exploration blocks, located near Tupi, from an upcoming auction of potential oil fields open to private oil companies. Brazil still plans to offer 271 blocks for bidding, however, the government said it's reanalyzing whether, and how, to share Brazil's new oil riches with private companies, after a decade of relatively open concessions.
Brazilian oil regulator ANP says it's drafting a new oil bill to present to congress that would change energy laws, perhaps limiting the role of private companies in Brazil's subsalt. Additionally, Lula says Brazil should join OPEC once Petrobras begins oil output from Tupi, around 2011.
"This looks to have triggered a major debate about the role of state vs. private oil companies here," says Sophie Aldebert, a director at Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "But Brazil is going to want to continue working with private companies."
A Number of Challenges
Despite its size, the Tupi field poses significant engineering hurdles that will drive increased costs in tapping the field. Petrobras currently pumps 1.8 million barrels daily from its Brazilian fields and expects to boost its $112 billion in planned spending over the next five years to assume the Tupi project.
For one, the oil lies some 4.5 miles beneath the ocean's surface. To reach it, Petrobras will have to run lines through 7,000 feet of water and then drill up to 17,000 feet through sand, rock, and a massive salt layer. A decade ago, geologists lacked the tools to glimpse beneath these salt layers, which can be more than a mile thick offshore Brazil. Today, with the help of data-crunching supercomputers, 3D imaging of ultradeep subsalt layers is illuminating billions of barrels of new oil. Geologists say the discoveries challenge one of the notions of the peak oil theory, which claims oil companies already have found nearly all of the world's usable oil.
Petrobras is already one of a handful of big oil companies, including Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB), BP (BP), Chevron, and ExxonMobil, with vast experience in deepwater drilling. Much of Brazil's oil production is in deep water, but none yet comes from below the salt canopy.
The prized light crude Petrobras is finding may soon place Brazil "somewhere between Nigeria and Venezuela" in terms of proved reserves, Petrobras CEO José Sérgio Gabrielli said last week. Nigeria now holds around three times Brazil's 12 billion barrels of proved oil and gas, while Venezuela has around seven times as much.
In one rough estimate, Petrobras' Repsold says the company might need to drill 100 wells to develop Tupi. Shaw believes that means Tupi may cost between $50 billion and $100 billion to develop. A first well at Tupi cost $240 million and required two years to drill. "But we're getting much faster," Repsold says. Subsequent wells have cost around $60 million apiece and taken six months or less. Petrobras declined to estimate what it will cost to develop Tupi, saying more study and drilling are needed.
"Nobody ever produced oil at these depths," says Cambridge's Aldebert. "Petrobras will do everything in its power to be the first, but any major dip in world oil prices could hurt the plans."
==================================
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/nov2007/db20071115_045316.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5
Brazil, the New Oil Superpower
State-run Petrobras' "monstrous" new oil find has wide-ranging implications for the South American country, the oil majors, oil services providers, and beyond
by Joshua Schneyer
In a recent radio broadcast, Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he's convinced a "higher power" has taken a shining to Brazil. That, he said, might explain the providence of state-run oil company Petrobras (PBR), whose colossal new oil discovery could transform Brazil from a barely self-sufficient producer into a major crude exporter.
Petrobras announced Nov. 8 it has found between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels of light oil and gas at the Tupi field, 155 miles offshore southern Brazil in an area it shares with Britain's BG Group and Portugal's Galp Energy. Tupi is the world's biggest oil find since a 12 billion-barrel Kazakh field was discovered in 2000, and the largest ever in deep waters. Perhaps more important, Petrobras believes Tupi may be Brazil's first of several new "elephants," an industry term for outsize fields of more than 1 billion barrels.
Initially, Tupi will produce about 100,000 barrels a day but may ramp up to as much as 1 million before 2020—more than the biggest U.S. field in Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, says Hugo Repsold, Petrobras' exploration and production strategy manager. "It's monstrous," says Matthew Shaw, a Latin America energy analyst at consultant Wood Mackenzie in London.
Blocking Private Companies
Given the discovery's magnitude, Tupi already is changing how Brazilians think about their oil riches. It even tempts the kind of oil nationalism that has prompted Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez to expropriate oil reserves and production infrastructure in Venezuela from oil majors ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).
Indeed, a day after Petrobras announced the Tupi discovery, Brazil said it would remove 41 oil exploration blocks, located near Tupi, from an upcoming auction of potential oil fields open to private oil companies. Brazil still plans to offer 271 blocks for bidding, however, the government said it's reanalyzing whether, and how, to share Brazil's new oil riches with private companies, after a decade of relatively open concessions.
Brazilian oil regulator ANP says it's drafting a new oil bill to present to congress that would change energy laws, perhaps limiting the role of private companies in Brazil's subsalt. Additionally, Lula says Brazil should join OPEC once Petrobras begins oil output from Tupi, around 2011.
"This looks to have triggered a major debate about the role of state vs. private oil companies here," says Sophie Aldebert, a director at Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "But Brazil is going to want to continue working with private companies."
A Number of Challenges
Despite its size, the Tupi field poses significant engineering hurdles that will drive increased costs in tapping the field. Petrobras currently pumps 1.8 million barrels daily from its Brazilian fields and expects to boost its $112 billion in planned spending over the next five years to assume the Tupi project.
For one, the oil lies some 4.5 miles beneath the ocean's surface. To reach it, Petrobras will have to run lines through 7,000 feet of water and then drill up to 17,000 feet through sand, rock, and a massive salt layer. A decade ago, geologists lacked the tools to glimpse beneath these salt layers, which can be more than a mile thick offshore Brazil. Today, with the help of data-crunching supercomputers, 3D imaging of ultradeep subsalt layers is illuminating billions of barrels of new oil. Geologists say the discoveries challenge one of the notions of the peak oil theory, which claims oil companies already have found nearly all of the world's usable oil.
Petrobras is already one of a handful of big oil companies, including Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB), BP (BP), Chevron, and ExxonMobil, with vast experience in deepwater drilling. Much of Brazil's oil production is in deep water, but none yet comes from below the salt canopy.
The prized light crude Petrobras is finding may soon place Brazil "somewhere between Nigeria and Venezuela" in terms of proved reserves, Petrobras CEO José Sérgio Gabrielli said last week. Nigeria now holds around three times Brazil's 12 billion barrels of proved oil and gas, while Venezuela has around seven times as much.
In one rough estimate, Petrobras' Repsold says the company might need to drill 100 wells to develop Tupi. Shaw believes that means Tupi may cost between $50 billion and $100 billion to develop. A first well at Tupi cost $240 million and required two years to drill. "But we're getting much faster," Repsold says. Subsequent wells have cost around $60 million apiece and taken six months or less. Petrobras declined to estimate what it will cost to develop Tupi, saying more study and drilling are needed.
"Nobody ever produced oil at these depths," says Cambridge's Aldebert. "Petrobras will do everything in its power to be the first, but any major dip in world oil prices could hurt the plans."
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I read 3 months ago, that the price of gas in the states will reach 5.00 a gallon by Christmas.
in my town, the price for unleaded ranges between, 3.25 - 3.29 as of today...
for those who may use heating oil for winter, the prediction of fuel reaching 5.00 a gallon has almost come to pass...kerosene here is between 3.50 -4.50 a gallon....
a derivitive of nature.
nature is god
god is love
love is light
The world will soon have 1 more oil source online.
HOWEVER that price drop will probably only last UNTIL the USA declares WAR on Brazil.
Face it,
we have a REAL problem with state-run, no private access, oil.
THE reason for our interventionist policies around the world.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Alternative resource: pedal power!!! human resource....
love ya.. peace..
if you own a vehicle that is high fuel consumer....
I am amazed to see how 100.00 equals about 10.00 of fuel not even 3 or 4 years ago...
good day...
and when someone pays for 3.00 of gas, i think to myself, will you make it out of the parking lot on that amount?
a derivitive of nature.
nature is god
god is love
love is light