Investment Point...

saveuplifesaveuplife Posts: 1,173
edited November 2008 in A Moving Train
...OK... so, according to this article...

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=081117183645.25q8q916&show_article=1

...and much of what I've read and what I personally believe, we will be in a recession until next summer. Typically, stock market indices lead GDP (output) peaks and troughs by roughly 6 month span. That means it's getting close to time to jump back in. I think I'm going to start dipping my toes in late-December/early-January. Who wants to jump in? Waters kinda chilly.... actually, it's f'ing freezing.
Post edited by Unknown User on

Comments

  • I think contemplating a return to the market at this juncture is foolhardy and suicidal.

    There are SO MANY headwinds facing this economy, that listening to ANY pundit talking about a bottom or about recover is just ridiculous.

    You want to start buying within the month !?!
    Late Dec to Jan?

    With EVERY indicator still moving down?
    Housing starts, new sales, existing sales; unemployment claims, non farm payroll; manufacturing; retail; auto sales; ppi & cpi ... where does it end?

    We've got major retailers across the country going belly up or preparing to,
    the same with many of the producers themselves.
    We've got housing in an unending downturn,
    affecting everything from banking on down the chain.
    Inflation is at this point no longer even accurately represented by the numbers, and yet EVERY commodity class across the board is in the tubes.

    The federal government is insolvent but acting like it just came in to a lavish inheritence; state governments are facing unending budget shortfalls; the citizens are about to get a MAJOR shaft with tax hikes; China, Russia, and third world nations around the world are facing the same or worse disasters with respect to systemic concerns; Consumer demand is in the dolldrums with no end in sight; and THERE ARE MULTIPLE OVERLAPPING, SIMULTANEOUS, AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC NEGATIVE FEEDBACK CYCLES going on right now that threaten to throw the whole world in to an absolute nose dive.

    No,
    i really don't see the point in considering an investment in equities at this point.
    To me it just sounds flat out ridiculous.

    I think this [urlhttp://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Expect_The_Recession_To_Increase_In_Severity]Chapman article[/url] does a good job of explaining some of the outright manipulations and distortions going on in the markets right now, and maybe would serve as incentive to warn against anyone without massive reserves and influence from getting in the markets right now or anytime soon.

    Just look at gold and silver.
    You can't look at those markets and not realize that things are fucked.
    When Wall Street says silver is only worth $8.50 an ounce but you CAN NOT FIND SILVER FOR SALE AT LESS THAN $14 AND OFTEN $19 or $20 AN OUNCE ... something has to go off in your head saying, "whoa ... somewhere there is a SERIOUS imbalance" ... someone is manipulating the shit out of this system ...

    and when they start to lose that control ...
    when REAL market forces start to take back over in full ...
    when inflation rears its ugly head -- when interest rates and gold prices go soaring ... next year when the sum totality of the housing crisis shows itself -- when values are cut fully in half or worse, when inventories burdgeoning past 1 years worth exist on the market, and when bank onwned derivatives sink even lower still ...

    THEN ...
    then you will see the REAL PAIN ...
    when the retailer ALL start folding in unison,
    and then the manufacturers,
    and then the people again themselves,
    and then the housing market again,
    and on and on again in a violent circle ...


    yeah ....
    it could get REALLY REALLY REALLY out of hand.

    And NO
    given the past performance of this market,
    and given that i was called an insane fearmonger and an idiot for over a year regarding this mess ... i WILL NOT admit to being overreactive or to being a "fearmonger" about further ills.

    I think some people are just and will always remain deliberately blind to the true brutality of things.

    I'm not saying we're all doomed, but IT SURE DON'T LOOK TOO GOOD.

    AND DON'T FORGET THE CALLS FROM EVERYCORNER OF THE GOVERNMENT AND THINKTANK CRICLES REGARDING A MASSIVE NEW TERRORIST ATTACK.

    How do you think the markets will respond to THAT bunch of bullshit?

    :cool:
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • You know, you can't win if you don't play... You can invest small if you don't want to take the big risks. But sitting in the stands complaining won't change the outcome of the game.
  • jbalicki10 wrote:
    You know, you can't win if you don't play... You can invest small if you don't want to take the big risks. But sitting in the stands complaining won't change the outcome of the game.

    There is a reason the market is 50% down right now.
    It is because LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SMART MONEY ARE OUT OF THE MARKET.

    It is NEVER stupid to not lose money.
    You should ONLY be in the market if you have a REASONABLE BELIEF that the market will rise ... you should NEVER BE IN THE MARET BECAUSE YOU ARE AFRAID OF MISSING THE UPSIDE.

    Let the market PROVE it is ready to move up.
    Don't get greedy!
    Stupid old saying: Bears and bulls make money BOTH. But PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED!
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • dude.
    you need to listen to this Gerald Celente guy on AJ today.
    WHOA!
    :(
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
Sign In or Register to comment.