3% of 9300 is 280 points ... that is HARDLY a "tank" ... I thought you were going to say it would drop below 8,000.
the dow has swung that many points SEVERAL times in the past month based on news ...
there are SO many other factors that could go into a swing like that ... so many announced indicators like jobs or housing numbers, interst rate adjustments or global facotrs ...
while prior to September, that may have been a "tank", with the high volatility right now, that's almost seen a noise in a short term market.
OK. I'll increase it to 5% by Wednesday afternoon. And yes that's a significant decrease.
Released today we have:
construction spending
ISM
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
Vehicle Sales
Released tomorrow we have:
Chainstore Sales
Factory Orders
There's absolutely no significant market moving economic indicators there.... atleast enough to have a 5% decrease. And yes, you are right the VIX index certainly shows volatility has been heightened recently, but that doesn't mean it couldn't help your side of the bet. In this bet I'm saying it's going to go down... in a sense, I give you points. You benefit. Saying volatility scares you is a cop-out because I could say the same.
I'm talking about the one that is sitting at roughly 9350 right now and will be much much lower over the course of the next few days.... if Obama wins, which will most likely happen. Watch.
Oh, I see...
The Market I watch has been volatile in recent weeks...you know, big swings up and down...
I have to say, you're taking quite a risk in saying the Market will continue to decline in this current economic environment...
I suppose the continue fallout from the burst housing bubble will not have anything to do with the Market...
The Market I watch has been volatile in recent weeks...you know, big swings up and down...
I have to say, you're taking quite a risk in saying the Market will continue to decline in this current economic environment...
I suppose the continue fallout from the burst housing bubble will not have anything to do with the Market...
It has been volatile. That's true. Volatilitiy means UPS and DOWNS. Like I said, The market will go down post-election.
That said, it's been on the upswing recently, since hitting a bottom on Oct 27.... up well over 1,000 since then. So, it hasn't been "continuing a decline" at all.
It has been volatile. That's true. Volatilitiy means UPS and DOWNS. Like I said, The market will go down post-election.
That said, it's been on the upswing recently, since hitting a bottom on Oct 27.... up well over 1,000 since then. So, it hasn't been "continuing a decline" at all.
well, you're not alone in you gloomy forecast...it's odd that Obama is not mentioned....
Economists predict recession to last through 2009
Monday November 3, 3:52 am ET
By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
A survey of top economists released Monday shows that the vast majority of them believe the economy has fallen into a recession that will continue throughout all of 2009.
According to the National Association of Business Economists, 90% of the 102 members responding were more pessimistic about the economy than they had been in July.
The economists indicated that a recession is likely to continue at least through the end of next year, with 79% saying the economy will grow less than 1% and 38% saying the economy will shrink next year.
"There has been a sharp decline in current and near-term expectations among economists," said Ken Simonson, a member of the NABE committee that conducted the survey. "This represents a big turnabout in attitude about the economy."
With the economy mired in a prolonged credit crisis, the Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates several times, most recently cutting them by a half-percentage point, to 1%, on October 29.
But just 36% of respondents said the rate cuts and other initiatives by the Fed to unfreeze the credit markets were having a positive impact and 58% said the programs were having little impact. The survey was completed on Oct. 23, before the Fed's last rate cut.
"Economists have a very pessimistic view of the Fed's programs," said Simonson. "The inability to get funding has lowered their near-term expectations for the economy."
Low consumer sentiment and poor economic conditions have sharply reduced demand for goods and services. According to the survey, 35% reported falling demand while just 30% said demand was rising. It was the first time since 2001 in which more respondents reported declining demand than rising demand.
By way of comparison, 44% of respondents reported rising demand in July and only 19% reported falling demand. The NABE said every time since 1982 when economists reported more declines than increases in demand, the economy has later proven to be in a recession.
As demand slumped, respondents said their firms' profit margins sagged as well. Just 15% of economists surveyed said their companies' profit margins were rising, compared to 44% who said margins were falling.
Continued job cuts are also likely, as 23% of respondents said their firms or industries were cutting jobs, compared to 16% who reported that they were hiring.
"Over the next six months, far more firms expect to cut back on employment, which will likely make the recession deeper," Simonson said.
Economists predict recession to last through 2009
Monday November 3, 3:52 am ET
By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
A survey of top economists released Monday shows that the vast majority of them believe the economy has fallen into a recession that will continue throughout all of 2009.
According to the National Association of Business Economists, 90% of the 102 members responding were more pessimistic about the economy than they had been in July.
The economists indicated that a recession is likely to continue at least through the end of next year, with 79% saying the economy will grow less than 1% and 38% saying the economy will shrink next year.
"There has been a sharp decline in current and near-term expectations among economists," said Ken Simonson, a member of the NABE committee that conducted the survey. "This represents a big turnabout in attitude about the economy."
With the economy mired in a prolonged credit crisis, the Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates several times, most recently cutting them by a half-percentage point, to 1%, on October 29.
But just 36% of respondents said the rate cuts and other initiatives by the Fed to unfreeze the credit markets were having a positive impact and 58% said the programs were having little impact. The survey was completed on Oct. 23, before the Fed's last rate cut.
"Economists have a very pessimistic view of the Fed's programs," said Simonson. "The inability to get funding has lowered their near-term expectations for the economy."
Low consumer sentiment and poor economic conditions have sharply reduced demand for goods and services. According to the survey, 35% reported falling demand while just 30% said demand was rising. It was the first time since 2001 in which more respondents reported declining demand than rising demand.
By way of comparison, 44% of respondents reported rising demand in July and only 19% reported falling demand. The NABE said every time since 1982 when economists reported more declines than increases in demand, the economy has later proven to be in a recession.
As demand slumped, respondents said their firms' profit margins sagged as well. Just 15% of economists surveyed said their companies' profit margins were rising, compared to 44% who said margins were falling.
Continued job cuts are also likely, as 23% of respondents said their firms or industries were cutting jobs, compared to 16% who reported that they were hiring.
"Over the next six months, far more firms expect to cut back on employment, which will likely make the recession deeper," Simonson said.
Ha haa.
You just aren't listening. I'm talking about this week, man.... and markets... a high frequency indicator.
I don't think it would be breaking news to know the economy is going to struggle over the next few months.
You just aren't listening. I'm talking about this week, man.... and markets... a high frequency indicator.
I don't think it would be breaking news to know the economy is going to struggle over the next few months.
so, you're predecting markets will go down....just this week...
wow, you've got a big pair of balls to call that one...
especially since ford recorded a 30% drop in sales, Manufacturing sector contracts to 26-year low as new orders and production slow, and Circuit City is closing 155 stores...
you've got your finger on the pulse of the market...
investors=greedy.... should've been an Obama slogan.
let me be more specific, it's not the 37% of Americans that have some sort of investment in wall street, it's those at the top making unethical decisions. Ones that if the common man made would land them in jail. providing insurance, but changing the name so it's not regulated, and not having the capital to meet that obligation is unethical, and the biggest reason the market crashed. mortgage brokers and banks could have recovered from 4% of mortagages defaulting.
"Music, for me, was fucking heroin." eV (nothing Ed has said is more true for me personally than this quote)
Foriegn investers are watching this election very closely and will be more than happy with an Obama nomination.
Besides...It will signal the end of the horrific Bush Administration.
Markets will spike.
Agree....markets are quite stable today...in part to the good news that Obama's ahead in the polls. I expect the Dow to hit 10,000 once Obama's confirmed. If McCain gets in....who knows.
The Stock Market has been fluctuating in general regardlesss of the election. The outcome of the election will sway it in some minor form either way, but nothing significant.
CONservative governMENt
Our government is the potent, the omnipresent teacher. For good or for ill, it teaches the whole people by its example. Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy. - Louis Brandeis
You just aren't listening. I'm talking about this week, man.... and markets... a high frequency indicator.
I don't think it would be breaking news to know the economy is going to struggle over the next few months.
Who cares about a week? Who invests for a week besides day traders? That is way to stressful for me. I hope it tanks this week, thats the only reason why I'm voting for Obama, so I can get stocks cheap this week. I agree with a previous poster and will look for deals. I've been wanting to get my money back into stocks so thats why I am hoping Obama wins tomorrow.
Honestly, not that anyone really knows what the markets WILL do,
but most of the credible analysts on CNBC are saying that an Obama win is already priced in to the market.
So i would say,
probably not so much on the crashy-crashy if Obama wins.
Besides, most of those who wanted to sell have already sold.
Thats why the market is now moving sideways.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
That's so ironic. Hahahahahahaha. Your talking to people who hope they aren't getting laid off this winter because of what's been going on since September. Ohmygawd! That's so funny. It's like you think the market's been so great the past couple months. hahahahahahahaha!
There is no such thing as leftover pizza. There is now pizza and later pizza. - anonymous The risk I took was calculated, but man, am I bad at math - The Mincing Mockingbird
Market (Intrade Election Futures) has "priced" Obama at 91% to win.
This is an online "market" where traders can speculate on the candidates just like commodities in a real market.
So the market has DEFINATELY priced in an Obama win.
Per the Fast Money team, they are saying that the only thing that would be a HUGE NEGATIVE for the market would be
a. A MCCAIN Win
b. Dems winning more than 60% in the house.
Just regurgitatin what i heard.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
I thought it was the Angry Depressive Left, not the Debbie Downer right.
Now, saveuplife, you wouldn't be wishing bad things on your country just because the person you want to win does not, now are you?
Absolutely not. I'm just betting things will go this way in the next couple days. The jist as I've explained before is that he's going to increase taxes on investors and corporations... the market has priced in a large amount of this, but...
...you'll see the real effects over the next day or two or three. Watch.
Do I want stock prices to go down? No. Not at all. If I were in control, I wouldn't advertise that I was going to increase taxes on the market.
Let's see if I'm right tomorrow and more so, on Wednesday.
I recall the opposite when daddy Bush was officially replaced by Clinton. Must be a dirty trick buy those damn tax and spend libs. I hear Acorn has been telling poor minorities to invest in the stock market after Obama wins.
Absolutely not. I'm just betting things will go this way in the next couple days. The jist as I've explained before is that he's going to increase taxes on investors and corporations... the market has priced in a large amount of this, but...
...you'll see the real effects over the next day or two or three. Watch.
Do I want stock prices to go down? No. Not at all. If I were in control, I wouldn't advertise that I was going to increase taxes on the market.
Let's see if I'm right tomorrow and more so, on Wednesday.
I just wanted to get this quoted so we can come back to it.
You are absolutely right. Obama = Higher corporate taxes = Scared investors
I pledge to you a government that will not only work well, but wisely, its ability to act tempered by prudence, and its willingness to do good, balanced by the knowledge that government is never more dangerous than when our desire to have it help us blinds us to its great power to harm us.
-Reagan
People give him too much credit. He did hardly anything. He was lucky to be President during a big tech boom and with a Republican Congress, which prevented raising taxes. Obama won't get so lucky.
I pledge to you a government that will not only work well, but wisely, its ability to act tempered by prudence, and its willingness to do good, balanced by the knowledge that government is never more dangerous than when our desire to have it help us blinds us to its great power to harm us.
-Reagan
People give him too much credit. He did hardly anything. He was lucky to be President during a big tech boom and with a Republican Congress, which prevented raising taxes. Obama won't get so lucky.
People give him too much credit. He did hardly anything. He was lucky to be President during a big tech boom and with a Republican Congress, which prevented raising taxes. Obama won't get so lucky.
Obama is not raising taxes, as much as he's letting expire and opting out of renewing the tax cut to the richest 1% and corporations making billions of dollars that President GW gave them. A tax cut that was set to expire anyways. Obama wants to go back to growing the economy from the bottom up, with a balanced budget like Clinton did it, not from the top down as GW has tried and failed at the last 7 1/2 years.
All the doom and gloom from the conservative right is hysterical...all things considered.
You are absolutely right. Obama = Higher corporate taxes = Scared investors
Or higher corporate taxes=tax cuts for the middle class=more spending=higher profits for corporation=happy investors.
The truth is neither I, nor you, nor the investor down in wall street really know what will happen whatever we tell ourselves. Predicting markets is a dream that people tried to rationalize by adding complicated mathematical equations (which do not seem to work out that well).
We'll do worse.... that's the point. Markets don't want him in and will show it.
You may ask, "why don't they want him in? He's such a great speaker."
Answer: Because of his policy proposals.... He wants to increase taxes on corporations and a large share of investors. That's why markets will tank. It's very obvious.
Then how do you explain the large corporate banks PAC's financing Obama's campaign over 2:1 to McCain?
And when you studied economics 101 didn't they teach you objective study of the markets? There are no economic models for emotions? I'm not an economist and I know this much.
Comments
Someone's been listening to Sean Hannity a little too much
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
OK. I'll increase it to 5% by Wednesday afternoon. And yes that's a significant decrease.
Released today we have:
construction spending
ISM
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
Vehicle Sales
Released tomorrow we have:
Chainstore Sales
Factory Orders
There's absolutely no significant market moving economic indicators there.... atleast enough to have a 5% decrease. And yes, you are right the VIX index certainly shows volatility has been heightened recently, but that doesn't mean it couldn't help your side of the bet. In this bet I'm saying it's going to go down... in a sense, I give you points. You benefit. Saying volatility scares you is a cop-out because I could say the same.
Oh, I see...
The Market I watch has been volatile in recent weeks...you know, big swings up and down...
I have to say, you're taking quite a risk in saying the Market will continue to decline in this current economic environment...
I suppose the continue fallout from the burst housing bubble will not have anything to do with the Market...
It has been volatile. That's true. Volatilitiy means UPS and DOWNS. Like I said, The market will go down post-election.
That said, it's been on the upswing recently, since hitting a bottom on Oct 27.... up well over 1,000 since then. So, it hasn't been "continuing a decline" at all.
well, you're not alone in you gloomy forecast...it's odd that Obama is not mentioned....
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/081103/110308_nabe_survey.html
Economists predict recession to last through 2009
Economists predict recession to last through 2009
Monday November 3, 3:52 am ET
By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
A survey of top economists released Monday shows that the vast majority of them believe the economy has fallen into a recession that will continue throughout all of 2009.
According to the National Association of Business Economists, 90% of the 102 members responding were more pessimistic about the economy than they had been in July.
The economists indicated that a recession is likely to continue at least through the end of next year, with 79% saying the economy will grow less than 1% and 38% saying the economy will shrink next year.
"There has been a sharp decline in current and near-term expectations among economists," said Ken Simonson, a member of the NABE committee that conducted the survey. "This represents a big turnabout in attitude about the economy."
With the economy mired in a prolonged credit crisis, the Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates several times, most recently cutting them by a half-percentage point, to 1%, on October 29.
But just 36% of respondents said the rate cuts and other initiatives by the Fed to unfreeze the credit markets were having a positive impact and 58% said the programs were having little impact. The survey was completed on Oct. 23, before the Fed's last rate cut.
"Economists have a very pessimistic view of the Fed's programs," said Simonson. "The inability to get funding has lowered their near-term expectations for the economy."
Low consumer sentiment and poor economic conditions have sharply reduced demand for goods and services. According to the survey, 35% reported falling demand while just 30% said demand was rising. It was the first time since 2001 in which more respondents reported declining demand than rising demand.
By way of comparison, 44% of respondents reported rising demand in July and only 19% reported falling demand. The NABE said every time since 1982 when economists reported more declines than increases in demand, the economy has later proven to be in a recession.
As demand slumped, respondents said their firms' profit margins sagged as well. Just 15% of economists surveyed said their companies' profit margins were rising, compared to 44% who said margins were falling.
Continued job cuts are also likely, as 23% of respondents said their firms or industries were cutting jobs, compared to 16% who reported that they were hiring.
"Over the next six months, far more firms expect to cut back on employment, which will likely make the recession deeper," Simonson said.
Ha haa.
You just aren't listening. I'm talking about this week, man.... and markets... a high frequency indicator.
I don't think it would be breaking news to know the economy is going to struggle over the next few months.
so, you're predecting markets will go down....just this week...
wow, you've got a big pair of balls to call that one...
especially since ford recorded a 30% drop in sales, Manufacturing sector contracts to 26-year low as new orders and production slow, and Circuit City is closing 155 stores...
you've got your finger on the pulse of the market...
let me be more specific, it's not the 37% of Americans that have some sort of investment in wall street, it's those at the top making unethical decisions. Ones that if the common man made would land them in jail. providing insurance, but changing the name so it's not regulated, and not having the capital to meet that obligation is unethical, and the biggest reason the market crashed. mortgage brokers and banks could have recovered from 4% of mortagages defaulting.
Stop by:
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=14678777351&ref=mf
Our government is the potent, the omnipresent teacher. For good or for ill, it teaches the whole people by its example. Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy. - Louis Brandeis
Who cares about a week? Who invests for a week besides day traders? That is way to stressful for me. I hope it tanks this week, thats the only reason why I'm voting for Obama, so I can get stocks cheap this week. I agree with a previous poster and will look for deals. I've been wanting to get my money back into stocks so thats why I am hoping Obama wins tomorrow.
but most of the credible analysts on CNBC are saying that an Obama win is already priced in to the market.
So i would say,
probably not so much on the crashy-crashy if Obama wins.
Besides, most of those who wanted to sell have already sold.
Thats why the market is now moving sideways.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Betcha you are wrong. You are doom in gloom in action, thank ya very little.
I thought it was the Angry Depressive Left, not the Debbie Downer right.
Now, saveuplife, you wouldn't be wishing bad things on your country just because the person you want to win does not, now are you?
The risk I took was calculated, but man, am I bad at math - The Mincing Mockingbird
Market (Intrade Election Futures) has "priced" Obama at 91% to win.
This is an online "market" where traders can speculate on the candidates just like commodities in a real market.
So the market has DEFINATELY priced in an Obama win.
Per the Fast Money team, they are saying that the only thing that would be a HUGE NEGATIVE for the market would be
a. A MCCAIN Win
b. Dems winning more than 60% in the house.
Just regurgitatin what i heard.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Absolutely not. I'm just betting things will go this way in the next couple days. The jist as I've explained before is that he's going to increase taxes on investors and corporations... the market has priced in a large amount of this, but...
...you'll see the real effects over the next day or two or three. Watch.
Do I want stock prices to go down? No. Not at all. If I were in control, I wouldn't advertise that I was going to increase taxes on the market.
Let's see if I'm right tomorrow and more so, on Wednesday.
You are absolutely right. Obama = Higher corporate taxes = Scared investors
-Reagan
People give him too much credit. He did hardly anything. He was lucky to be President during a big tech boom and with a Republican Congress, which prevented raising taxes. Obama won't get so lucky.
-Reagan
ya it was luck, you stick with that one sparky.
All the doom and gloom from the conservative right is hysterical...all things considered.
Or higher corporate taxes=tax cuts for the middle class=more spending=higher profits for corporation=happy investors.
The truth is neither I, nor you, nor the investor down in wall street really know what will happen whatever we tell ourselves. Predicting markets is a dream that people tried to rationalize by adding complicated mathematical equations (which do not seem to work out that well).
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
And when you studied economics 101 didn't they teach you objective study of the markets? There are no economic models for emotions? I'm not an economist and I know this much.