Will all obama's "supporters" refuse to pull the lever for him on Election Day?
musicismylife78
Posts: 6,116
You often hear this analysis. That people dont want to be labeled racist, so publicly they say "yes I am all for Barack Obama". but secretly they have some deep seated racism and on election day will cast the vote for Mccain.
Any truth to this?
Would these people even after all that, say the next day tell all their friends "yeah I voted for Obama", even though they didnt?
Is this a problem for Obama? Voters who say they will vote for him, but wont?
Any truth to this?
Would these people even after all that, say the next day tell all their friends "yeah I voted for Obama", even though they didnt?
Is this a problem for Obama? Voters who say they will vote for him, but wont?
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Even in New Hampshire where Hillary Clinton surprised the polsters and won, that wasn't because the Obama numbers were wrong, it was because the Clinton numbers were wrong.
But, it's certianly a possibility ... I think that is why the Obama campaign will not rest until Nov 5th ... I don't think they are comfortable with leads under 5-6%.
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
I am very into conspiracy theories, but this isnt one chopitdown. I dont think its a conspiracy if it transpires this way.
Our country has a racist past, and alot of racism still lingers.
To suggest that people may not vote for obama because of race, isnt some nutjob theory, its a legitimate question.
Race has played a huge role in this election cycle.
we're not talking about voter fraud .. we're talking about widely inaccurate polling when it comes to a black candidate ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
my friend and i were talking about this last night....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_bradley_effect
Sweep the Leg Johnny.
word
of course some people won't vote for him b/c of his race. But those people, made up their mind long ago; just like the ones that will vote for him only b/c of his race.. I don't think you'll have the scenario you present happen. I highly doubt you'll have millions go into the polls outspoken obama supporters, then under the shroud of secrecy vote mccain. Will a few do that...prob...will enough to make a difference do that...not in my opinion.
you also have to assume that everyone person polled will actually show up to vote. There may be many who support obama that don't pull the switch for either candidate for some reason. the poll would still be accurate b/c they said they supported Obama...but if they don't vote then the voting is correct and the polling is correct. The only way the polling isn't reflective of the vote is if someone intentionally lies on the poll AND votes the opposite.
It won't take millions, it may only take a few thousand in a state like Ohio or Pennsylvania.
We're not talking about "outspoken" Obama supporters .... we are just talking about people who, when asked by pollsters, say they will vote for Obama for fear of being looked at as a racist if they say they aren't, but, then they do not vote Obama.
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
sure, it could happen...but it's just an academic exercise to have the conversation...we'll never know what the reasons are. That being said, i still don't think the number that will do that will make a difference.
Can you provide a link(s)?
there are links in the thread already
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
No, there is a link to a wikipedia entry about the Bradley Effect. I haven't often heard the anaylsis as it relates to this election. I was asking for the OP to provide links to the analysis (hopefully other than from the Hannity forum or The Weekly Standard).
I don't doubt their sincerity about voting for Obama, and I have never doubted their racism.
I live in an almost all white Italian neighborhood in South Philly that almost all of the time votes Dem.
In 2004, I saw 12 Kerry signs in a three block radius of my house and only one house had a Bush Cheyney sign.
This election I have seen 7 Mcain/Palin signs, 6 Italian Americans for McCain/Palin signs, 1 Nader sign, and 1 Obama sign.
At least my neighbors aren't keeping their true feelings secret this year. Or maybe they really believe McCain is the reason to no longer be a lifelong Democrat? :rolleyes:
- 8/28/98
- 9/2/00
- 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
- 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
- 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
- 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
- 8/2/07, 8/5/07
- 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
- 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
- 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
- 9/11/11, 9/12/11
- 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
well, nothing can really be proven or have data put against it until the election actually happens.
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
I think he was referring to people discussing this issue and I haven't seen many examples of it since he has "often heard" it.
well, I have ... from both extremes (from MSNBC to FOX) ... there are people talking about it.
Here's one instance ...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677/#27188595
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
As individual fingers we can easily be broken, but together we make a mighty fist ~ Sitting Bull
Maybe the extremes have covered it, but I haven't seen anything on the networks or newspapers.
I don't really think it's that much of a discussed issue.
I agree with QuestionAuthority though. With the state of the union the way it is, people are fed up with the status quo. At least Obama is a new direction.
weekend update just talked about it while interviewing jesse jackson and how the bradley effect cost him the election back in 84.
You mean the nomination?
yeah, i didn't think you'd hold me to such high standard when my source was SNL.
and jessie jackson was darrell hammond
Today is the first I've heard of anyone talking about this. The original poster mentioned all of the analysis about it. I just want to know if he meant today or over the course of the election process.
The poll numbers are starting to be overwhelmingly in favor of Obama. The Bradley Effect would have to be quite substantial to effect this election, in my opinion.
EXACTLY. I HOPE YOU DO!
http://www.dailynews.com/ci_10632884
http://www.bloggernews.net/115386
The 2nd link is interesting because it gives an explanation different from the typical Bradley Effect.