Is it possible for the Dow to be at 0?

2

Comments

  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    saveuplife wrote:
    I think we are actually closing in on a bottom now. This is below fundamental prices. It's now an overreaction in the opposite direction. I think it won't fall below 7,500.... but, one can never know.

    Thats why i think if it gets to 6,500 we start to see some serious physical symptoms (like cops in the street) ...

    7,500 SHOULD be a bottom on fundamentals. But Funny-mentals don't get you much in markets like this.
    And if credit markets don't get right soon, it isn't going to matter what "real" value is.
    [anyone know which way LIBOR moved yesterday? I never checked]

    In any event, the market has been showing signs of intermittent selling exhaustion since wednesday.
    If today can keep to less than a 300 pt loss at close, i would be willing to start thinking more seriously about a bottom. If it closes less than 100 points down, more so.

    700 point early plunge followed by a rally is actually an exceedingly GOOD sing. It's what traders have been waiting for all week.

    Lets see where this goes in to close, and lets remember that ANY bad news coming out in fundamentals could wipe this all off the table by next week.

    :fingers crossed:
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • saveuplife
    saveuplife Posts: 1,173
    DriftingByTheStorm wrote:
    Thats why i think if it gets to 6,500 we start to see some serious physical symptoms (like cops in the street) ...

    7,500 SHOULD be a bottom on fundamentals. But Funny-mentals don't get you much in markets like this.
    And if credit markets don't get right soon, it isn't going to matter what "real" value is.
    [anyone know which way LIBOR moved yesterday? I never checked]

    In any event, the market has been showing signs of intermittent selling exhaustion since wednesday.
    If today can keep to less than a 300 pt loss at close, i would be willing to start thinking more seriously about a bottom. If it closes less than 100 points down, more so.

    700 point early plunge followed by a rally is actually an exceedingly GOOD sing. It's what traders have been waiting for all week.

    Lets see where this goes in to close, and lets remember that ANY bad news coming out in fundamentals could wipe this all off the table by next week.

    :fingers crossed:


    See, I don't necessarily agree. IMO fundamentals are not that low. I think that we are witnessing a downswing (overreaction), which is similar to a bubble except in the other direction. Therefore, IMHO, right now the fundamental price is actually higher than the actual. That's why I think we all agree things will "eventually" turn around. Because it needs to come back to the fundamental.

    Regardless, of what we disagree about with the "low point", I think we can agree... this blows.

    I do totally agree with you about credit markets. Well, I like looking at the TED spread rather than just LIBOR.... I'm almost positive that increased again yesterday.... unfortunately.
  • mammasan
    mammasan Posts: 5,656
    saveuplife wrote:
    See, I don't necessarily agree. IMO fundamentals are not that low. I think that we are witnessing a downswing (overreaction), which is similar to a bubble except in the other direction. Therefore, IMHO, right now the fundamental price is actually higher than the actual. That's why I think we all agree things will "eventually" turn around. Because it needs to come back to the fundamental.

    Regardless, of what we disagree about with the "low point", I think we can agree... this blows.

    I do totally agree with you about credit markets. Well, I like looking at the TED spread rather than just LIBOR.... I'm almost positive that increased again yesterday.... unfortunately.

    A friend of mine who works for Bear Sterns told me last night over drinks that he expects the market to go as far down as it went up. He stated that if it can be kept above 8000 for a few days then thinks will start to slowly creep upwards, but if it falls under 8000 we could see a panic like never before.
    "When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Ron Paul
  • saveuplife
    saveuplife Posts: 1,173
    mammasan wrote:
    A friend of mine who works for Bear Sterns told me last night over drinks that he expects the market to go as far down as it went up. He stated that if it can be kept above 8000 for a few days then thinks will start to slowly creep upwards, but if it falls under 8000 we could see a panic like never before.

    It went below 8000 today, and then jumped right back up. Does he mean close below 8000?

    I kinda agree with him, except my level is 7500 and I would need to see a close below that level... not just a brief moment below that level in a day.
  • mammasan
    mammasan Posts: 5,656
    saveuplife wrote:
    It went below 8000 today, and then jumped right back up. Does he mean close below 8000?

    I kinda agree with him, except my level is 7500 and I would need to see a close below that level... not just a brief moment below that level in a day.

    Yes he meant close below 8000. He stated that a close that low would have a devastating ripple effect across foreign markets. Which would in turn cause our market to drop even lowers creating a really bad cycle. He stated that the US markets where the only one's that could reverse this course. Most foreign markets are simply reacting to our downward spiral. If we can't level it off or pull it up then no one else will.
    "When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Ron Paul
  • saveuplife
    saveuplife Posts: 1,173
    mammasan wrote:
    Yes he meant close below 8000. He stated that a close that low would have a devastating ripple effect across foreign markets. Which would in turn cause our market to drop even lowers creating a really bad cycle. He stated that the US markets where the only one's that could reverse this course. Most foreign markets are simply reacting to our downward spiral. If we can't level it off or pull it up then no one else will.


    100% agreed. And I think we "may" see that today. It was a very good sign that things bounced right back after hitting 8000 IMO.
  • mammasan
    mammasan Posts: 5,656
    saveuplife wrote:
    100% agreed. And I think we "may" see that today. It was a very good sign that things bounced right back after hitting 8000 IMO.


    Let's hope so I really don't want to see what happens if the market drops again like it did yesterday.
    "When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Ron Paul
  • PJSerf
    PJSerf Posts: 637
    mammasan wrote:
    Let's hope so I really don't want to see what happens if the market drops again like it did yesterday.

    I'm hoping we get through the day. With Monday being a bank holiday, activity will be lighter than most, and I'm hoping Tuesday brings a bounce back.
    "If you love someone, set them free... if someone loves you, don't fuck up" - EV
  • mammasan
    mammasan Posts: 5,656
    PJSerf wrote:
    I'm hoping we get through the day. With Monday being a bank holiday, activity will be lighter than most, and I'm hoping Tuesday brings a bounce back.


    Well so far the market is down 373 points. It's still early enough to chance course but it seems that after the morning bounce it just started to slide again. If the market is going to close under 8000 today would be the best day for it to happen. With a three day break in trading it will give people time to cool off. Hopefully it doesn't happen on Tuesday.
    "When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Ron Paul
  • Ebizzie
    Ebizzie Posts: 240
    Once we get a feel for the bottom, there are some REAL deals to be had....some stocks getting beat to hell just because of the overall markets regardless of their liquidity or revenues. I wish I had a couple hundred K laying around to play with. For every winter, there's a springtime ahead.
    "Worse than traitors in arms are the men who pretend loyalty to the flag, feast and fatten on the misfortunes of the nation while patriotic blood is crimsoning the plains." -- Abraham Lincoln
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    BOTTOM!

    [too busy to post any more, but technical traders going to call this "double bottom"]

    GOOD NEWS!
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • mammasan
    mammasan Posts: 5,656
    DriftingByTheStorm wrote:
    BOTTOM!

    [too busy to post any more, but technical traders going to call this "double bottom"]

    GOOD NEWS!


    Are these types of drastic highs and lows healthy behavior for the market?
    "When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Ron Paul
  • saveuplife
    saveuplife Posts: 1,173
    mammasan wrote:
    Are these types of drastic highs and lows healthy behavior for the market?


    I'm not answering for Drifting, but I def think it's not healthy. Volatility basically indicates risk. So, there's a hell of a lot of risk in the market these days. The VIX index is a really good indicator of this... it's at highs... so you are def right about the volatility.
  • mammasan
    mammasan Posts: 5,656
    saveuplife wrote:
    I'm not answering for Drifting, but I def think it's not healthy. Volatility basically indicates risk. So, there's a hell of a lot of risk in the market these days. The VIX index is a really good indicator of this... it's at highs... so you are def right about the volatility.


    I kind of figured that but I wasn't sure. I thought it would be best to ask someone with a bit more knowledge on the subject. I didn't even want to bother calling my friend as he was probably busy loosing his mind as his hair line receeded another inch or two.r
    "When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Ron Paul
  • Lizard
    Lizard So Cal Posts: 12,091
    JOEJOEJOE wrote:
    Everyone watch "Mad Max" this weekend so you can see what it will be like if the Dow goes to zero.

    ok--so I am gonna hoard some gasoline this weekend!
    So I'll just lie down and wait for the dream
    Where I'm not ugly and you're lookin' at me
  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    Lizard wrote:
    ok--so I am gonna hoard some gasoline this weekend!

    Actually gas is getting relatively cheap again.

    I filled up for 2.81 last night and the price of oil is dropping.
    - Busted down the pretext
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    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
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    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • Lizard
    Lizard So Cal Posts: 12,091
    Solat13 wrote:
    Actually gas is getting relatively cheap again.

    I filled up for 2.81 last night and the price of oil is dropping.

    Wow--it's not that cheap here yet. and I heard OPEC is having an emergency meeting (or did) ;)
    So I'll just lie down and wait for the dream
    Where I'm not ugly and you're lookin' at me
  • mammasan
    mammasan Posts: 5,656
    Lizard wrote:
    Wow--it's not that cheap here yet. and I heard OPEC is having an emergency meeting (or did) ;)

    Because the price is going to low for their luxurious lifestyles. they want oil to hover around $100 a barrel. That way it's not to expensive for the junkie but expensive enough to line the producers pockets.
    "When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Ron Paul
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    saveuplife wrote:
    I'm not answering for Drifting, but I def think it's not healthy. Volatility basically indicates risk. So, there's a hell of a lot of risk in the market these days. The VIX index is a really good indicator of this... it's at highs... so you are def right about the volatility.

    To be honest, volatility isn't really "healthy" or "unhealthy", it just "is".

    I mean, for the traders it makes for rough going. Sure SOME volatility is a good thing (how you make your money), but this is like trying to surf in a cat. 5 hurricane. Most people just can't do it well. It is why you hear most of the traders on CNBC saying that they aren't really doing anything.

    But i guess, in general, NO it isn't really good.
    It means that there is a lot of fear and uncertainty, which itself isn't good.

    However, as far as TODAY is concerned, i have to say this was most DEFINATELY a good thing.

    I haven't been by the tube today (too busy), but i can only imagine that people like Art Cassin on the NYSE floor are ecstatic about this movement.

    I'm not saying this is a permanent long term bottom, or even that the market might not scrape lower next week... however, this is a GREAT sign.

    It means the markets crashed to a new low, recovered, and then slowly sunk back only HALF as low, to recover a second time, and then fade calmly in to close (certainly not abnormal for such a high risk environment going in to the weekend).

    This kind of movement is a pretty good indication that the consensus in the market is that these levels are "healthy" short term valuations, and that baring any other significant deterioration in the fundamentals, we are VERY close to being at a near term bottom.

    At the VERY least, it is proof that the market is no longer in free fall.

    I couldn't be more happy, and i can't wait to hear what the heads on a show like Fast Money have to say tonight.
    :D

    Anyone else with an eye for the markets have a comment? PJSurf?
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • Fighting Hellfish
    Fighting Hellfish Posts: 3,175
    here's my advice for this market. Find companies that are heavily shorted, and buy them. At this point, they have declined so much, that the shorts will close their positions, inflating prices. I believe more in a buy and hold strategy, but some money could be made short term here

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