Experts warn North Pole will be ice free by 2040, and that is optomistic
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Experts warn North Pole will be 'ice free' by 2040
Lewis Smith, Environment Reporter of The Times
Ice is melting so fast in the Arctic that the North Pole will be in the open sea in 30 years, according to a team of leading climatologists.
Ships will be able to sail over the top of the world and tourists will be able visit what was, until climate change, one of planet’s most inaccessible landscapes.
Researchers assessing the impact of carbon emissions on the world’s climate have calculated that late summer in the Arctic will be ice-free by 2040 or earlier - well within a lifetime.
Some ice would still be found on coastlines, notably Greenland and Ellesmere Island, but the rest of the Arctic Ocean, including the pole, would be open water.
The Nasa-funded US team of researchers said the ice retreat is likely to remain fairly constant until 2024 when there will be a sudden speeding up of the process.
In between 30 and 50 years, they concluded, summer sea ice will have vanished from almost the entire Arctic region.
Their finding may, however, already be out of date and something of an over-optimistic forecast, said Professor Chris Rapley, head of the British Antarctic Survey.
He said a recent study by the Global Carbon Project suggests emissions are rising more than twice as fast as in 2000 which is likely to speed up ice-loss even further.
"The study findings may be an under estimate of when the Arctic summer ice might be all gone," he said. "It could well be their assumptions are more optimistic than they might be."
He described the report as "worrying" but said it fitted into recent findings based on satellite observations of the speed at which ice is retreating.
Arctic ice is being hit by the double effects of loss of reflectivity and warmer currents being washed into the ocean.
Scientists have long realised that ice reflects heat and as the quantity reduces so, too, does the amount of heat that can be bounced away from the Earth.
However, the study team from the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, US, and two US universities, identified warmer ocean currents as an additional factor to be considered.
Disappearing ice is already causing problems for the Polar Bear and it is likely to be driven to the brink of extinction unless it can find ways of adapting.
Other wildlife, including seals, are also likely to suffer, though not so badly but the removal of sea ice is likely to benefit a range of marine creatures, including cod, which could move in to the open waters.
For people the open waters are likely to lead to fresh opportunities, though the Inuit lifestyle would be damaged.
Tourist could open up to allow visitors Arctic cruises with cocktail parties over the North Pole that previously defied the best efforts of many explorers.
Oil companies would move in to tap resources previously protected by the ice and freight firms could use the ocean as a shortcut.
Winter ice will still remain because temperatures will plunge during the winter when there is no sun to heat up the region but it will melt faster each year because less will form.
The US study team modified one of the climate models used by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to establish what will happen to the ice as carbon emissions rise.
"We have already witnessed major losses in sea ice, but our research suggests that the decrease over the next few decades could be far more dramatic than anything that has happened so far," said Professor Marika Holland who led the study. "These changes are surprisingly rapid."
"As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice. This is a positive feedback loop with dramatic implications for the entire Arctic region."
Lewis Smith, Environment Reporter of The Times
Ice is melting so fast in the Arctic that the North Pole will be in the open sea in 30 years, according to a team of leading climatologists.
Ships will be able to sail over the top of the world and tourists will be able visit what was, until climate change, one of planet’s most inaccessible landscapes.
Researchers assessing the impact of carbon emissions on the world’s climate have calculated that late summer in the Arctic will be ice-free by 2040 or earlier - well within a lifetime.
Some ice would still be found on coastlines, notably Greenland and Ellesmere Island, but the rest of the Arctic Ocean, including the pole, would be open water.
The Nasa-funded US team of researchers said the ice retreat is likely to remain fairly constant until 2024 when there will be a sudden speeding up of the process.
In between 30 and 50 years, they concluded, summer sea ice will have vanished from almost the entire Arctic region.
Their finding may, however, already be out of date and something of an over-optimistic forecast, said Professor Chris Rapley, head of the British Antarctic Survey.
He said a recent study by the Global Carbon Project suggests emissions are rising more than twice as fast as in 2000 which is likely to speed up ice-loss even further.
"The study findings may be an under estimate of when the Arctic summer ice might be all gone," he said. "It could well be their assumptions are more optimistic than they might be."
He described the report as "worrying" but said it fitted into recent findings based on satellite observations of the speed at which ice is retreating.
Arctic ice is being hit by the double effects of loss of reflectivity and warmer currents being washed into the ocean.
Scientists have long realised that ice reflects heat and as the quantity reduces so, too, does the amount of heat that can be bounced away from the Earth.
However, the study team from the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, US, and two US universities, identified warmer ocean currents as an additional factor to be considered.
Disappearing ice is already causing problems for the Polar Bear and it is likely to be driven to the brink of extinction unless it can find ways of adapting.
Other wildlife, including seals, are also likely to suffer, though not so badly but the removal of sea ice is likely to benefit a range of marine creatures, including cod, which could move in to the open waters.
For people the open waters are likely to lead to fresh opportunities, though the Inuit lifestyle would be damaged.
Tourist could open up to allow visitors Arctic cruises with cocktail parties over the North Pole that previously defied the best efforts of many explorers.
Oil companies would move in to tap resources previously protected by the ice and freight firms could use the ocean as a shortcut.
Winter ice will still remain because temperatures will plunge during the winter when there is no sun to heat up the region but it will melt faster each year because less will form.
The US study team modified one of the climate models used by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to establish what will happen to the ice as carbon emissions rise.
"We have already witnessed major losses in sea ice, but our research suggests that the decrease over the next few decades could be far more dramatic than anything that has happened so far," said Professor Marika Holland who led the study. "These changes are surprisingly rapid."
"As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice. This is a positive feedback loop with dramatic implications for the entire Arctic region."
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Comments
I completely agree...the earth goes through cycles. We cant stop it.
very good work but you left out a few facts. coastal towns are already being relocated due to rising waters. the fresh water melting will dilute the salt SG killing many fish and causing methane emmissions. if the earths temperature rises another 4 degrees F; the frozen methane deposits will melt (it's happening now in the carribean) causing another 4 to 5 degree F rise which will cause a repeat of the permian extinction as verified by scientific discovery in greenland in 1998 or 99. canada's frozen tundra will stratify and sink as many places in alaska have in recent earthquakes.
nobody listens so i say
WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP IT'S BEEN!
the ice age will come after the extinction. nature heals itself. it has for billions of years. most creatures can't adapt to what's coming. mostly because there will be no way to obtain food. humans can live underground but can't produce the food needed underground.
Wouldn't it be badass if the thaw released the Kraken?
old music: http://www.myspace.com/slowloader
the conditions are right for a repeat of the permien extinction. this is the difference. all factors that caused this mass extinction (more then 90%) are in place now. it's not the siberian flats spewing CO2 and sulfer dioxide into the atmosphere this time; it's man. and the frozen methane pockets which would have solved the worlds energy crisis and dependency on oil will be the clean burning fuel that kills us.
~Ron Burgundy
(Note: the above post does not advocate blatantly harming the environment)
...are those who've helped us.
Right 'round the corner could be bigger than ourselves.
No doubt, my apartment is freezing. :cool:
its 50 degrees here in Nj...im loving global warming.
That's one hell of a post. Post of the year. Some people are just so ignorant..... :(
its fear mongering by the left. You have a better chance being blown up by a terrorist than some polar ice caps melting 45 years from now.
If you fill a glass with a bunch of ice, then put some water in it, and allow the ice to melt...the volume actually drops.
Why wouldn't we have more land and less water if the ice melts? I really don't know much about earth science but i could never understand this. The only possible explanation I can think of is that it has something to do with gravity.
And I try to make this kind and clear
Just a chance that maybe we'll find better days
Cuz I don't need boxes wrapped in strings
And desire and love and empty things
Just a chance that maybe we'll find better days
It's always fear mongering. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. It may well be, but the big thing is this is happening because of what WE are doing, and we aren't doing anything about it while we still have a chance...
I think because of two reasons. A lot of the ice is on ground, and the rest floats.
Global warming has very little to do with us. It's inevitable.
That's a good point about the ice on the ground..but still...the ice that melts that is floating...should reduce water levels. Ice cubes float too.
And I try to make this kind and clear
Just a chance that maybe we'll find better days
Cuz I don't need boxes wrapped in strings
And desire and love and empty things
Just a chance that maybe we'll find better days
Yeah, but we're still not helping it at all, we're hurting it badly!
Be The Rain!!!
Check it out
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Co2-temperature-plot.svg
Notice the temperature raises and drops with the Co2 levels.
This is how they came to "realize" that Co2 effects global warming.
Now notice that the current Co2 level is almost 3 times that of the last ice-age. And yet, we haven't kick-started anything. This clearly tells me that Co2 is not the cause of global warming. Rather... when the earth's temperature increases more permafrost melts releasing more greenhouse gases, including Co2 so the level of Co2 historically goes up with the earth's temperature, then bam, ice-age and everything get's frozen over again and the Co2 levels go down.
That's my theory anyway, but hey, I'm not an expert.
The Permian extinction was a product of volcanism on a massive scale in addition to possibly a meteor strike. People have a massive ego if they think that humanity could ever hope to repeat the extinction at the P/T boundary which killed 90% of all species.
This remains contentious in the scientific literature despite what Bono, Greenpeace and others might have you believe- In fact the rate of warming has decreased since the 70's. I hate George Bush as much as the next bloke (who aint an evangelist) but the evidence for anthropogenic warming is inconclusive at best.
JK