Bad: Worst Layoffs in 34 Years; Glad: Christmas Rally
DriftingByTheStorm
Posts: 8,684
Employers cut 533K jobs in Nov., most in 34 years
But, because i'm feeling rested and well today,
i'm going out on a limb to talk about a ... gasp ... CHRISTMAS RALLY.
I've been seeing it as possible for the last 2 weeks, and have also been hearing some people talk about it. Notably, a lot of the more "conspiratorial" folk seem to see it as in the cards ... Bob Chapman, Gerald Celente, one or two others i can't remember ...
Anyhow ... the market has shown some stability around 8000-8500 dow, and we have been entering a "pattern" of bad news\quick recovery.
Todays beyond shitty employment numbers met with moderate selling which backed off quickly. This kind of behavior often comes before a turn in the market. I could see this becoming a bear market rally in short order. There are no numbers coming out next week that could significantly shock the street, and the markets i'm sure would love a happy holiday as well. Lets say we get to 8800-9200 by Christmas, and then see her slump in to the new year ...
Last year we got a nice little Christmas Rally, why not this year too?
But, because i'm feeling rested and well today,
i'm going out on a limb to talk about a ... gasp ... CHRISTMAS RALLY.
I've been seeing it as possible for the last 2 weeks, and have also been hearing some people talk about it. Notably, a lot of the more "conspiratorial" folk seem to see it as in the cards ... Bob Chapman, Gerald Celente, one or two others i can't remember ...
Anyhow ... the market has shown some stability around 8000-8500 dow, and we have been entering a "pattern" of bad news\quick recovery.
Todays beyond shitty employment numbers met with moderate selling which backed off quickly. This kind of behavior often comes before a turn in the market. I could see this becoming a bear market rally in short order. There are no numbers coming out next week that could significantly shock the street, and the markets i'm sure would love a happy holiday as well. Lets say we get to 8800-9200 by Christmas, and then see her slump in to the new year ...
Last year we got a nice little Christmas Rally, why not this year too?
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Comments
We hit a bottom in mid-November. The market will test it again in the New Year, but I don't think it will go below 7500.
The employment numbers won't move markets too much in this environment because although they were worse than expected, that might not be a bad thing for future projections (also they are a lagging indicator). Some analysts may think more were let go last month so less will be let go in coming months.
I agree with you in a general since, although i really do tend to think that the monetary situation will continue to deteriorate into the forseeable future (1-3 year out even) ... meaning moderate deflation for months, followed by inflation at the 12-18 month horizon ...
basically, i would agree that 7500 is a very near term bottom, but it is a number that is likely to turn in to more of a trading range if things keep deteriorating.
Again, you could only look at the jobs number as a bottom if your view of this economy was in some way static. But i happen to believe that the fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and therefore, the jobs situation is likely to slide moderate to significantly further.
If christmas sucks, the retailers, followed closely by the manufacturers, will be firing folks in droves.
In fact, one of the corespondents on CNBC just tried to ask the other, "is anyone saying that this may indicate a bottom in employment declines?" and the lady replied, "No! NO ONE is saying that. Sorry. Sorry NO! No silver lining here. I wish i could give you something but no, its not here!" ...
that was your FLOOR corespondent, so ... ?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
I agree that this isn't a bottom employment-wise. The unemployment rate, for instance, will most likely approach 9 maybe even 10%. The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, so for anyone to say the bottom is being reached now, would be saying that economy is "growing" again. It's clearly not growing and won't be probably for atleast another full quarter or two.
I've got a video for you to watch as soon as CNBC gets it up on their site.
It was from 3:20, so give it another hour tops.
Essentialy you are arguing your entire case based on growth,
which is speculative at best.
I think we will likely slip in to a deflationary down turn for the near term.
Obviously that call is speculative too, but there are enough forces shaping up on the horizon to indicate that possibility.
In such a scenario, the concept of "growth" would all but dissapear for the forseeable future.
Again, hold on a bit, and i'll get that video up.
Probably the best conversation i've seen on CNBC in the last few days.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
here is the video, SUL.
My money is with the short guy on the right
What's your take?
Particularly his counterargument to the P\E argument.
If I opened it now would you not understand?