McCain Better For Stock Market Than Obama: 21 of 29 Economists Say

DriftingByTheStorm

That is 21 of 29 economists POLLED.
Not to say there are only 29 economists in the country.

Washington Business Journal
July 25, 2008
Economists: McCain better than Obama for stock markets

John McCain's presidential campaign is touting a new survey of economists who predict he would have a more positive impact on stock markets than Barack Obama.

The Reuters news service asked 29 economic firms which presidential candidate would be better for stock markets, which have been hit by inflation, high energy prices, the housing collapse and financial sector troubles.

Twenty-one of those economists said McCain's economic agenda would have a more positive impact on stocks, six cited Obama's policies and two gave no response.

McCain wants to cut U.S. corporate income tax rates from 35 percent to 25 percent, double the $3,500 child tax credit, and ban Internet and new communications taxes. The Arizona Republican also backs domestic offshore drilling and free trade policies.

Obama favors elimination of capital gains taxes for startup companies as well as middle-class tax relief funded in part by new taxes on oil company profits. The Chicago Democrat also wants to revamp free-trade policies and does not favor offshore drilling.

acoustic guy

The lesser of the two evils I say.
He is better for America in many more ways then that.
I am prety sure Obama is going to be the next president. And after he is in office for a while, all the poeple who love this guy will then wonder what they were thinking.
Either way, this country is fucked for a while and I don't see anyone on the horizon that can change this.

fugawzi

I'm sorry but I have to respectfully disagree that McCain would be better for the stock market or the even broader issue of the dismal economy. If you want to cite polls, there are plenty that favor Obama on the issue of the economy, including a recent "MSNBC/Wall Street Journal poll (that) had him (Obama) leading McCain on optimism about the future and being compassionate enough to understand the average individual's problems."

I'll include some quotes from an article, then provide the link to the full article:

"Obama's solutions include nearly universal health care, a housing rescue plan and another economic stimulus package.

McCain prefers a different road. He often speaks in favor of free markets and free trade. He has endorsed President Bush's tax cuts -after opposing them in 2001 and 2003 -and is now suggesting additional cuts. According to an analysis by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, his tax policies favor the wealthy. The analysis also noted that his tax cuts add to the deficit, though McCain has spoken strongly against deficit spending."

"Looking at the MSNBC/WSJ poll, McCain has garnered an advantage with voters perceiving him as better to lead the country. Another Rasmussen poll showed the two candidates statistically tied in their ability to be trusted on the economy."

Full article can be read here:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10430878/2/opinion-obama-sees-economy-the-right-and-left-way.html

On the issue of offshore drilling, McCain's major argument for reducing oil/gas prices, it's widely believed that offshore drilling will have little to no effect on reducing gas prices in the next few years, if ever. Article supporting this here:
http://www.energyliteracy.org/2008/07/just-facts-why-offshore-drilling-will.html

Sen. Obama himself has said he remains "skeptical" that drilling would bring down prices or significantly reduce dependence on foreign oil. "We're not going to drill our way out of this problem," Obama told the Palm Peach Post, but said, "I don't want to be so rigid that we can't get something done." You may call it it a flip-flop if you like, something that most, if not all politicians do, but Obama's position is that he would consider supporting drilling initiatives if they were part of a bigger plan for energy independence.

To put it simply when it comes to the economy, the upper class "elites" (the minority) and large corporations will benefit from McCain's economic policies much like the past 8 years with Bush. The low to middle class (the majority of the population) will benefit more from Obama's policies, so vote accordingly.

fugawzi

acoustic guy wrote:

The lesser of the two evils I say.
He is better for America in many more ways then that.
I am prety sure Obama is going to be the next president. And after he is in office for a while, all the poeple who love this guy will then wonder what they were thinking.
Either way, this country is fucked for a while and I don't see anyone on the horizon that can change this.

Wow that's a positive attitude. You're saying if Obama takes office his voters will have a hangover from voting for him? How do you know this?
In what ways is McCain better for the country than Obama? Enlighten us since there are so many ways.

The Long Road

We all know that the stock market is run mostly by Republicans, so why should I even read this article? What is the margin of error on this "poll" anyway?

slightofjeff

The Long Road wrote:

We all know that the stock market is run mostly by Republicans, so why should I even read this article? What is the margin of error on this "poll" anyway?

Obviously, it's an unscientific poll, given that it polled just 29 people. It's really just food for thought.

Historically, Wall Street has always thought a Republican president was good for businesses. Less restrictions and taxation = more profit = stock is worth more.

jeffbr

fugawzi wrote:

I'm sorry but I have to respectfully disagree that McCain would be better for the stock market

You would have to have next to no understanding of the stock market and investing to not know why Obama, and his cockamamie capital gains tax proposal, would be bad for the market and both large and individual investors. It is clearly a disincentive to investors, and certainly punishes anyone who has picked right and wants to move some earnings to a different investment. Of course Obama will have a negative impact on the market.

slightofjeff

jeffbr wrote:

You would have to have next to no understanding of the stock market and investing to not know why Obama, and his cockamamie capital gains tax proposal, would be bad for the market and both large and individual investors. It is clearly a disincentive to investors, and certainly punishes anyone who has picked right and wants to move some earnings to a different investment. Of course Obama will have a negative impact on the market.

I have little confidence in McCain in this area ... but I have to be honest: Obama's economic ideas scare the living hell out of me.

jeffbr

slightofjeff wrote:

I have little confidence in McCain in this area ... but I have to be honest: Obama's economic ideas scare the living hell out of me.

Yeah, I agree with you. I don't think McCain will be able to fix the economy in general. But it is pretty obvious that strictly from a stock market perspective Obama is the greater of the two evils.

fugawzi

jeffbr wrote:

Yeah, I agree with you. I don't think McCain will be able to fix the economy in general. But it is pretty obvious that strictly from a stock market perspective Obama is the greater of the two evils.

Like I said in a previous post, the important issue is the broader economy (poor housing market, banks collapsing, high cost of food and energy) real issues that affect just about everyone, not just the rich or "upper" class. The stock market, not so much. I don't think anyone can say our most pressing need currently is the stock market that's just ridiculous. So I'll concede that McCain MAY be better for stocks. Big deal. As someone said before, he's a republican, no shock there. After more in-depth reading of the poll in question, I noticed something which I will quote directly from the article.

"a regular Reuters economic poll also found that economists had mixed views on the two candidates' economic plans.

On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being "very good," 12 economists gave McCain's proposals higher marks, while nine rated the two candidates equally and eight preferred Obama's policies, according to the poll released on Wednesday."

So 12 in favor of McCain, 8 in favor of Obama and 9 split. The issue of the economy in general is much less one sided than the stocks issue. Let's not forget this is only one poll 3 months before the election, a lot can change.

Article on aforementioned polls here:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080723/pl_nm/economy_usa_politics_poll_dc

When we're talking about the economy, we can't ignore the elephant in the room, which is the Irag war. We're now in the $540 Billion range, growing every second of everyday, with estimates exceeding $3 Trillion if and when the war ends. The Iraq war is second to only World War 2 in terms of cost. There's no question, the sooner we end the Iraq war, or at least start that process, the sooner we can stop some of the bleeding of our economy. McCain has made no secret that he will stay in Iraq until we "win". How long could that take? According to McCain's own words, it could take as long as "100 years". Obama on the other hand proposes a steady withdrawal over the course of 16 months.

great article on the cost of the Iraq war:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030702846.html

inmytree

fugawzi wrote:

Like I said in a previous post, the important issue is the broader economy (poor housing market, banks collapsing, high cost of food and energy) real issues that affect just about everyone, not just the rich or "upper" class. The stock market, not so much. I don't think anyone can say our most pressing need currently is the stock market that's just ridiculous. So I'll concede that McCain MAY be better for stocks. Big deal. As someone said before, he's a republican, no shock there. After more in-depth reading of the poll in question, I noticed something which I will quote directly from the article.

"a regular Reuters economic poll also found that economists had mixed views on the two candidates' economic plans.

On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being "very good," 12 economists gave McCain's proposals higher marks, while nine rated the two candidates equally and eight preferred Obama's policies, according to the poll released on Wednesday."

So 12 in favor of McCain, 8 in favor of Obama and 9 split. The issue of the economy in general is much less one sided than the stocks issue. Let's not forget this is only one poll 3 months before the election, a lot can change.

Article on aforementioned polls here:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080723/pl_nm/economy_usa_politics_poll_dc

When we're talking about the economy, we can't ignore the elephant in the room, which is the Irag war. We're now in the $540 Billion range, growing every second of everyday, with estimates exceeding $3 Trillion if and when the war ends. The Iraq war is second to only World War 2 in terms of cost. There's no question, the sooner we end the Iraq war, or at least start that process, the sooner we can stop some of the bleeding of our economy. McCain has made no secret that he will stay in Iraq until we "win". How long could that take? According to McCain's own words, it could take as long as "100 years". Obama on the other hand proposes a steady withdrawal over the course of 16 months.

great article on the cost of the Iraq war:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030702846.html

but...but....obama...he's bad...right...?

the title of this thread tells me so....;)

cincybearcat

inmytree wrote:

but...but....obama...he's bad...right...?

the title of this thread tells me so....;)

He's bad if your a Palestinian, Iranian, or an American tax-payer.

Abuskedti

jeffbr wrote:

Yeah, I agree with you. I don't think McCain will be able to fix the economy in general. But it is pretty obvious that strictly from a stock market perspective Obama is the greater of the two evils.

that is only true if you want to keep the illution alive that the economy and the stock market are independant of each other.

if the stock market one day reflects that health of the economy, the market will be much better

my2hands

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

That is 21 of 29 economists POLLED.
Not to say there are only 29 economists in the country.

Washington Business Journal
July 25, 2008
Economists: McCain better than Obama for stock markets

John McCain's presidential campaign is touting a new survey of economists who predict he would have a more positive impact on stock markets than Barack Obama.

The Reuters news service asked 29 economic firms which presidential candidate would be better for stock markets, which have been hit by inflation, high energy prices, the housing collapse and financial sector troubles.

Twenty-one of those economists said McCain's economic agenda would have a more positive impact on stocks, six cited Obama's policies and two gave no response.

McCain wants to cut U.S. corporate income tax rates from 35 percent to 25 percent, double the $3,500 child tax credit, and ban Internet and new communications taxes. The Arizona Republican also backs domestic offshore drilling and free trade policies.

Obama favors elimination of capital gains taxes for startup companies as well as middle-class tax relief funded in part by new taxes on oil company profits. The Chicago Democrat also wants to revamp free-trade policies and does not favor offshore drilling.

the same economists that said everyhting was fine 12 months ago? or the same ones that didnt think we were heading into a recession 12 months ago? :rolleyes:

sweetpotato

McCain is an idiot.

ryan198

so what we have learned here is that one Presidential candidate will bend over for corporations and take it in the ass with lube and the other will be forced into it eventually. it doesn't matter who rolls in rich, white people will continue to dominate for the next 4-8 years...let's just hope it's not so easy for them at least.

KosmicJelli

FUCK the Stockmarket and fuck MCCain.... KMA economist!!!!! Go suck some Dubya Snozberries...

KosmicJelli

ummmm.... well what I really meant was lets scare all the corporate whore stockholders into voting for McCain....shit we wouldnt want to lose our Dividend checks now would we?

slightofjeff

KosmicJelli wrote:

ummmm.... well what I really meant was lets scare all the corporate whore stockholders into voting for McCain....shit we wouldnt want to lose our Dividend checks now would we?

I don't know that the truth can ever be a mere scare tactic. I mean, it's just a fact that Obama's financial plans won't be good for stockholders.

If that doesn't matter to you, that's fine. Unless you have a shitload of your money in the stock market, maybe this doesn't affect you at all.

For people like my grandparents, who live on a fixed income and have most of their retirement money in 401Ks, Obama is going to cause them a serious financial hit. The tax they get hit with every time they withdraw money is going to go up.

So they won't be voting for Obama.

TDMize15

Let's compare the last 3 presidents, their economic plans, and how the economy did under all 3...



I see a trend.

slightofjeff

Don't Know Myself wrote:

Let's compare the last 3 presidents, their economic plans, and how the economy did under all 3...



I see a trend.

That's tough to do. The overall economy generally works in cycles, really regardless of who is at the controls and what they are doing.

The economy was headed toward recession at the tail end of Clinton's presidency. Had he been allowed a third term, we'd all be bitching about how Bubba fucked up the economy.