Kramers New Giraffe Tie and Today's Fed Announcement
DriftingByTheStorm
Posts: 8,684
Erin Burnett just presented Jim Cramer with his hanukka\christmas gift, following the 2:15 Federal Reserve rate announcement.
In honor of the dress Erin was wearing the day Kramer Had His Subprime Meltdown, Erin gifted Jim a giraffe print tie.
Jims response?
"Great. How fitting. All the better to HANG myself with when this economy slips in to RECESSION."
Look,
I'm not arguing the finer points of this rate cut.
The Fed gave the market .25 points off the Fed funds rate and the discount window.
The market had been hoping for .50 points cut on the rate and on the discount window.
The Dow and the S&P are both way down off their daily averages. Dow is down 150 points, S&P plummeted during the seconds of the announcement from 1525 to 1495 and then down to 1490 and lower.
Cramer started saying just minutes ago, as Erin teased him with the above video ...
"You know what. I'm so done with that. I'm not even going to bother getting excited anymore. The time for that has past. That was when it made sense to get angry but now we're just going to get a government bailout. I was angry because thats where the money was, but you can't make money getting angry anymore. This fed just clearly doesn't get it. They live in a dark cellar somewhere in academia, far removed from reality on the street."
What does it mean?
Who fucking knows anymore.
I think Cramer's sentiment is about spot on.
I take his opinions on the rate cut specificaly with a grain of salt, but the resignation in his voice is indicative.
ANALYSIS
US fiscal policy is a wreck.
The Fed's failure today was a failure to give the market what it wanted. The implication is that a .50 point rate cut would have spurred stocks higher, since what the market wanted (and THINKS it needs) is more cash and cheaper loan rates.
WHY wouldn't the Fed want to give the market the sugar pill that makes stocks soar? Shouldn't the market know best what it needs?
Well, NOT REALLY. Many of the analysts on TV (and a lot of the traders) know the game that is fiat money. They have said openely on CNBC that the dollar is a wreck and will continue to plummit. Rick Santelli summed it up pretty well last month when they were talking about what should happen today.
Go to the end of the video.
He clearly articulates that the market was literally betting on a rate cut by going "long Fed fund futures" -- meaning they actualy have money in a futures contract to deliver someone else money at the future Fed rate.
His statement is that the market is expecting a .25pt cut in December, but those same people wanting it are also worried that they wont get it due to inflationary pressures keeping the Feds hand tied.
But they got a .25pt cut, you say?
Yes, but after that video, the rest of Novemeber and all the financial horror stories it brought led the market to price in a .50pt basis cut. They wanted it, they priced it in, and they needed it!
WHY DIDN'T THEY GET IT?
Well, what did Santelli say?
They can dress up their action with whatever language they want, fundamentaly the Fed couldn't do it because the dollar is so weak, that printing up enough money to meet the demand for more cash created by that rate cut would cause unacceptable inflationary pressure on the dollar.
I think i've mentioned this a few times before,
but i though it would be fun to bring up again since it actualy happened --- and it seems you won't be hearing Kramer get fiery this time.
In honor of the dress Erin was wearing the day Kramer Had His Subprime Meltdown, Erin gifted Jim a giraffe print tie.
Jims response?
"Great. How fitting. All the better to HANG myself with when this economy slips in to RECESSION."
Look,
I'm not arguing the finer points of this rate cut.
The Fed gave the market .25 points off the Fed funds rate and the discount window.
The market had been hoping for .50 points cut on the rate and on the discount window.
The Dow and the S&P are both way down off their daily averages. Dow is down 150 points, S&P plummeted during the seconds of the announcement from 1525 to 1495 and then down to 1490 and lower.
Cramer started saying just minutes ago, as Erin teased him with the above video ...
"You know what. I'm so done with that. I'm not even going to bother getting excited anymore. The time for that has past. That was when it made sense to get angry but now we're just going to get a government bailout. I was angry because thats where the money was, but you can't make money getting angry anymore. This fed just clearly doesn't get it. They live in a dark cellar somewhere in academia, far removed from reality on the street."
What does it mean?
Who fucking knows anymore.
I think Cramer's sentiment is about spot on.
I take his opinions on the rate cut specificaly with a grain of salt, but the resignation in his voice is indicative.
ANALYSIS
US fiscal policy is a wreck.
The Fed's failure today was a failure to give the market what it wanted. The implication is that a .50 point rate cut would have spurred stocks higher, since what the market wanted (and THINKS it needs) is more cash and cheaper loan rates.
WHY wouldn't the Fed want to give the market the sugar pill that makes stocks soar? Shouldn't the market know best what it needs?
Well, NOT REALLY. Many of the analysts on TV (and a lot of the traders) know the game that is fiat money. They have said openely on CNBC that the dollar is a wreck and will continue to plummit. Rick Santelli summed it up pretty well last month when they were talking about what should happen today.
Go to the end of the video.
He clearly articulates that the market was literally betting on a rate cut by going "long Fed fund futures" -- meaning they actualy have money in a futures contract to deliver someone else money at the future Fed rate.
His statement is that the market is expecting a .25pt cut in December, but those same people wanting it are also worried that they wont get it due to inflationary pressures keeping the Feds hand tied.
But they got a .25pt cut, you say?
Yes, but after that video, the rest of Novemeber and all the financial horror stories it brought led the market to price in a .50pt basis cut. They wanted it, they priced it in, and they needed it!
WHY DIDN'T THEY GET IT?
Well, what did Santelli say?
They can dress up their action with whatever language they want, fundamentaly the Fed couldn't do it because the dollar is so weak, that printing up enough money to meet the demand for more cash created by that rate cut would cause unacceptable inflationary pressure on the dollar.
I think i've mentioned this a few times before,
but i though it would be fun to bring up again since it actualy happened --- and it seems you won't be hearing Kramer get fiery this time.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Comments
"The better to hang myself."
"You just delayed the recovery."
"It's more likely that banks will fail than not."
BWAHAHHA.
Th FED itself is the problem.
:(
If I opened it now would you not understand?
if you would like to see, in graph form, what stocks did today, watch here (go to "see more videos", "december 11" if no longer 12\11) and look at the Emini graph. That is your S&P futures (small) contract prices, which have been steadily rising since bottoming out last week. Average movement is 5 to 20 "points" VERY gradualy over a day. You can see this in the first half of the graph where it is just fluttering along at a slight upward angle ... then KABOOM!
Watch out Federal Reserve announcement.
Good bye economy.
As Jim says (after 1:23 where he says "love the outfit"), YOU BUY COMPANIES THAT ARE NOT LEVERED TO THE UNITED STATES.
Oh wow.
Thats all we have to do?
Good times America.
Great monetary policy.
No need to change that.
Whats worse.
Half of the analysts on CNBC this afternoon were saying that the Fed had other more pressing concerns like the credit crunch (a RESULT of easy credit to begin with) and job numbers, "The Fed should FORGET about INFLATION" ... i heard FOUR or MORE people say that in some variation (including direct quote) today.
WTF?
"FORGET ABOUT INFLATION"?
ARE YOU FUCKING MAD, YOU FOOLS?
"Yah sure. As long as stocks are on the up and up, who cares if the dollar tanks. Hell, i can just sell my stocks and cash out in ... uh ... uh ... uhhhhh ... oh shit. Dollars?"
??? Where are peoples heads ???
Listen to the price-trends video, "The Fed doesn't know what their doing, the traders don't know what their doing."
Lol.
Sad but true.
:(
BONUS: Ron Paul on today's RATE CUT.
:(
If I opened it now would you not understand?
You have the economic scene nailed tight man.
and reveling in it's loyalty. It's made by forming coalitions
over specific principles, goals, and policies.
http://i36.tinypic.com/66j31x.jpg
(\__/)
( o.O)
(")_(")
Great post!
You got to spend it all
No.
This sucks man.
I'm not saying the market was doing great. General medium-to-long term prognosis terminal, but she had some life in her, and desperately wanted to close the year UP. Equities squeezed the brakes on the bear train last week and were on the up. The four day bull rally that took us from then until tuesday morning was the biggest four day gain for the markets ALL year.
I think the up turn was misguided myself, but she WAS getting momentum. The "fundamentals" people were willing to accept that she was oversold in the short term, and the "technical analysis" nuts were seeing their "head and shoulders bottoms" and "bullish wedges" on the charts.
Anyhow.
That was BEFORE 2:15pm Tuesday.
Through no fault of their own (bwah ha ha) the Fed just could NOT deliver the rate cut the market had tried to make it promise (but it never did promise) and the market went sour.
Today (Wednesday) the Fed tried to make good with the little parking lot dollar auction plan.
Now everyone is freaked out, and thinking a lot harder about the fundamentals. Pathetic thing is the Fed thought it was helping, but now people are looking at mere upticks on a down trend graph and they are thinking scary bearish thoughts. Stocks barely escaped closing down today (on a day that in theory would be an unexpected UP gift from the Fed), and the FUTURES markets closed SIGNIFICANTLY down pointing farther down and WILL probably go down, just because the chart patterns will it so!
Ugh.
Merry Christmas,
The Federal Reserve
If I opened it now would you not understand?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaxdUPNYj2s
and reveling in it's loyalty. It's made by forming coalitions
over specific principles, goals, and policies.
http://i36.tinypic.com/66j31x.jpg
(\__/)
( o.O)
(")_(")