Hey Jlew! Unemployment Is UP to 5% The Market Just DIVE BOMBED.Hows It Going This AM?

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Comments

  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    so we were up 120 yesterday on two of the best news items the market has had all year (lol 2008 has been a long one, yes?) ...

    and then today we are down 250 on NO news?

    :(


    I'm starting to think you dont even follow the markets.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080111/wall_street.html

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080111/consumer_confidence.html
  • slightofjeffslightofjeff Posts: 7,762
    The economy is cyclical.
    everybody wants the most they can possibly get
    for the least they could possibly do
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    ok how bout this. I'll report the good and driftin can only pop in when there is bad news :rolleyes:

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/wall_street.html

    EW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street headed toward a sharply higher opening Monday, after solid preliminary results from IBM emboldened investors to buy back into the stock market after last week's rout.

    International Business Machines Corp., part of the Dow Jones industrials, early Monday unveiled preliminary earnings estimates for the fourth quarter that were 24 percent above year-earlier levels and also beat the Thomson Financial forecast. The stock shot up 9 percent before the opening.


    Elsewhere in Dow, General Motors Corp. also had update news. Chief Financial Officer Fritz Henderson said that although the GMAC finance wing's auto loan delinquencies were up slightly in the third quarter from year before levels, the problems for auto loans were not nearly as severe as the credit troubles in the real estate sector. GM sold control of GMAC in 2006 but still owns a large minority stake.




    http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/14/markets/markets_nyopen/index.htm?postversion=2008011409

    I think its much too early to call this an all out recession.


    thats very good news!
  • memememe Posts: 4,695
    jlew24asu wrote:
    unless you have something useful to add to the discussion about the economy, why waste everyone's time with your bullshit?

    and just so you understand. a strong economy is a good thing. a weak economy is a bad thing.

    why is a weak economy bad you ask? well when a economy is weak people loose jobs, when they loose jobs, they can't afford to eat, when they cant eat, they cant survive. you see where i'm going with this?

    Not necessarily in an economy with greater job security than the US economy.
    ... and the will to show I will always be better than before.
  • futures still down this morning.
    :D

    but expecting a pop here within the hour.

    If we see a general rally today (or early this week) it will be because we are at - what i see - as the bottom of a chanel ... looking to swing back up a bit.

    That being said, inflation data comes out tomorrow, which of course is expected to indicate rising inflation ... :eek: ... likely to see some selling on that news.

    Also,
    they had a piece on employment numbers and recession in an article i was reading.
    It said that unemployment rising is the MOST ACCURATE indicator of recession, hands down.
    That maybe historicaly the jump from 4.7 to 5% unemployment is not indicative of much, but just the fact that it is up is indicative that we are heading for recession.
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • spiral outspiral out Posts: 1,052
    I have seen articles on recessions coming to the UK, USA, Canada and Australia.

    This are all from there own newspapers.
    Keep on rockin in the free world!!!!

    The economy has polarized to the point where the wealthiest 10% now own 85% of the nation’s wealth. Never before have the bottom 90% been so highly indebted, so dependent on the wealthy.
  • jlew24asu wrote:

    JLew, are you really a bull right now?
    As Larry Livingston says in Remniscence of a Stock Operator, "I was a bear on the entire market".
    That's my sentiment.

    100 Yr Dow Chart Shows DOUBLE TOP ...

    Bet it will probably get one last huge inflation push 18months out ... notice that is what the second peak was anyhow ... we got a LOT of inflation starting in 2000 and certainly after 911, it took 18 months to kick in ... and after a downturn following the peak, we got a "boom" 18 months later (when inflation starts to work, as admited by bernanke himself last week) ... 2003 to 2007 ... inflation works "wonders" ... 2007 ... BUST ...

    One more try to inflate her past her peak ... we will see head and shoulders top (imho) ... then BUST!

    You seriously believe the uptrend will continue?
    Even seeing the dow hanging between 50 and 100 for about 50 years. taking another 50 to get to 200, then multiplying 1, 2, 3, 4,5, up to SEVENTY FIVE times in the next 50?

    You think that is normal growth?
    I know we've seen radical revolutions in information technology, but surely real wealth has not multiplied 15 fold.

    I think what you are looking at in the dow graph is better explained as an expression of INFLATION ...

    in fact if you kick the nasdaq on to that chart, you can see that as the fed pumped the system with money at the peak in 2000, the nasdaq went apeshit trying to absorb that money ... but it was all for naught.

    Anhow.
    If you think the bubble is a on going trend, and not an anomaly, more power to you ... but the chart says its a top.

    :(
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • So, long term Dow trends aside,
    Whats lookin good this morning?

    Reports out at 8:30
    inflation up ... something like a 27 year high for PPI?
    retail sales down pretty ugly ...
    the dollar index down .30 points ...

    gold ... lets see ... gold sittin up att he top of a trend right now ... but at ... 907 ... a little inflation respective pop.

    So.
    :sigh:

    Art on CNBC just said, regarding his beloved Goldie Locks, "well, if this keeps up, shes going to have to pay a visit not to Dr. Phill, but probably Dr. Kevorkian."

    :eek:
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • fanch75fanch75 Posts: 3,734
    The fundamentals are not good. It's like taking charging a money order on your credit card, and then sending the money order to the credit card company.

    From Dr. Buchanon:

    http://wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59693

    Subprime Nation

    Posted: January 14, 2008
    9:29 p.m. Eastern

    Since it began to give credit ratings to nations in 1917, Moody's has rated the United States triple-A. U.S. Treasury bonds have been seen as the most secure investment on earth. When crises erupt, nervous money seeks out the world's great safe harbor, the United States. That reputation is now in peril.

    Last week, Moody's warned that if the United States fails to rein in the soaring cost of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the nation's credit rating will be down-graded within a decade.

    Our political parties seem oblivious. Republicans, save Ron Paul, are all promising to expand the U.S. military and maintain all of our worldwide commitments to defend and subsidize scores of nations.

    Democrats, with entitlement costs drowning the federal budget in red ink, are proposing a new entitlement – universal health coverage for the near 50 million who do not have it – another magnet for illegal aliens. Moody's is telling America it needs a time of austerity, while the U.S. government is behaving like the governments we used to bail out.

    California has already hit the wall. With an economy as large as a G-8 nation, the Golden State is looking at a $14 billion deficit in 2009 and a $3 billion shortfall in 2008. Gov. Schwarzenegger has called for slashing prison staff by 6,000, including 2,000 guards, early release of 22,000 inmates, closing four dozen state parks and a 10 percent across-the-board cut in all state agencies. The Democratic legislature is demanding tax hikes, which would drive more taxpayers back over the mountains whence their fathers came.

    Meanwhile, Washington drifts mindlessly toward the maelstrom. With the dollar sinking, oil surging to $100 a barrel, the Dow having its worst January in memory, foreclosures mounting, credit card debt going rotten, and consumers and businesses unable or unwilling to borrow, we appear headed into recession.

    If so, tax revenue will fall and spending on unemployment will surge. The price of the stimulus packages both parties are preparing will further add to the deficit and further imperil the U.S. credit rating. This all comes in the year that the first of the baby boomers, born in 1946, reach early retirement and eligibility for Social Security.

    To stave off recession, the Fed appears anxious to slash interest rates another half-point, if not more. That will further weaken the dollar and raise the costs of the imports to which we have become addicted. While all this is bad news for the Republicans, it is worse news for the republic. As we save nothing, we must borrow both to pay for the imported oil and foreign manufactures upon which we have become dependent.

    We are thus in the position of having to borrow from Europe to defend Europe, of having to borrow from China and Japan to defend Chinese and Japanese access to Gulf oil, and of having to borrow from Arab emirs, sultans and monarchs to make Iraq safe for democracy.

    We borrow from the nations we defend so that we may continue to defend them. To question this is an unpardonable heresy called "isolationism."

    And the chickens of globalism are coming home to roost.

    We let Europe to get away with imposing value-added taxes averaging 15 percent on our exports to them, while they rebate that value-added tax on their exports to us. Thus, the euro has almost doubled in value against the dollar in the Bush years, as NATO Europe begins to bail out on Iraq and Afghanistan.

    We sat still as Japan protected her markets and dumped high quality goods into ours and China undervalued its currency to suck jobs, technology and factories out of the United States. Now, China and Japan have $2 trillion in cash reserves. The Arabs have an equal amount of petrodollars. Both are headed here to spend their depreciating dollars snapping up U.S. assets – banks, ports, highways, defense contractors.

    America, to pay her bills, has begun to sell herself to the world.

    Its balance sheet gutted by the subprime mortgage crisis, Citicorp got a $7.5 billion injection from Abu Dhabi and is now fishing for $1 billion from Kuwait and $9 billion from China. Beijing has put $5 billion into Morgan Stanley and bought heavily into Barclays Bank.

    Merrill-Lynch, ravaged by subprime mortgage losses, sold part of itself to Singapore for $7.5 billion and is seeking another $3 billion to $4 billion from the Arabs. Swiss-based UBS, taking a near $15 billion write-down in subprime mortgages, has gotten an infusion of $10 billion from Singapore.

    Bain Capital is partnering with China's Huawei Technologies in a buyout of 3Com, the U.S. company that provides the technology that protects Pentagon computers from Chinese hackers.

    This self-indulgent generation has borrowed itself into unpayable debt. Now the folks from whom we borrowed to buy all that oil and all those cars, electronics and clothes are coming to buy the country we inherited. We are prodigal sons, and the day of reckoning approaches.
    Do you remember Rock & Roll Radio?
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    So, long term Dow trends aside,
    Whats lookin good this morning?

    Reports out at 8:30
    inflation up ... something like a 27 year high for PPI?
    retail sales down pretty ugly ...
    the dollar index down .30 points ...

    gold ... lets see ... gold sittin up att he top of a trend right now ... but at ... 907 ... a little inflation respective pop.

    So.
    :sigh:

    Art on CNBC just said, regarding his beloved Goldie Locks, "well, if this keeps up, shes going to have to pay a visit not to Dr. Phill, but probably Dr. Kevorkian."

    :eek:

    seriously dude, even though todays is shaping up for a down day, you need to start discussing both sides. its very annoying that you seem to welcome bad news. market was up big yesterday on a excellent earnings report from IBM. drifitn=silence. our entire economy is not crumpling, even though you seem to enjoy wanting it to.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/economy.html

    Wholesale Prices Rise in 2007 by 6.3 Percent, Largest Amount in 26 Years

    WASHINGTON (AP) -- Wholesale inflation shot up in 2007 by the largest amount in 26 years even though falling gasoline costs allowed price pressures to moderate in December.

    The Labor Department reported that wholesale inflation was up 6.3 percent for all of 2007, reflecting a huge increase for the year in various types of energy costs ranging from gasoline to home heating oil.


    The year ended on a more positive note, with wholesale prices falling by 0.1 percent in December. That reflected decreasing costs at the time for gasoline and other energy products. It was a significant slowdown after prices had soared by 3.2 percent in November, which had been the biggest one-month increase in 34 years.




    things are not looking good, I agree....but you can find a silver (;)) lining in all the news these days.

    Citi also cut its dividend by 40% ! for a company that widely held, that is big news. but it also can be seen as a positive thing. the subprime mess needs to be shaken out and these banks need a way to recover.
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    I really like this guy's blog. check it out. (and he doesnt have much positive news)


    http://www.bigthink.com/blog/2008/01/14/spending-our-way-to-economic-woe
  • MasterFramerMasterFramer Posts: 2,268
    jlew24asu wrote:

    You take advice from a hedge fund crook? Come on man...
    10.31.93 / 10.1.94 / 6.24.95 / 11.4.95 / 10.19-20.96 / 7.16.98 / 7.21.98 / 10.31.00 /8.4.01 Nader Rally/ 10.21.01 / 12.8-9.02 / 6.01.03 / 9.1.05 / 7.15-16,18.06 / 7.20.06 / 7.22-23.06 / Lolla 07
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    You take advice from a hedge fund crook? Come on man...

    I dont take his advice I just think he is smart when it comes to the happenings of the market. some i like, some i dont.
  • How do you feel about Mr. D-Bag Greenspan signing on to be the advisor for a hedgefund ... helping to make someone billions on a problem he is largely responsible for, and was acutely aware of going IN to the job as fed chair.

    You have seen his writings from the Ayn Rand book, where he specificaly argues AGAINST a floating exchange, in favor of a gold standard as THE ONLY protector of personal wealth, yes?
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • jlew24asu wrote:
    seriously dude, even though todays is shaping up for a down day, you need to start discussing both sides. its very annoying that you seem to welcome bad news. market was up big yesterday on a excellent earnings report from IBM. drifitn=silence. our entire economy is not crumpling, even though you seem to enjoy wanting it to.


    Jlew, i hear you.
    IF there was something SUBSTANTIAL in the CONTEXT of what i see as the "whole" here, i would post the good.

    But this is the way i see it, related to "good day", in metaphor:

    You were abusive to your wife over the period of some years. (government abuse of currency, failure to respect american fiscal solvency)

    After pretending to be nice the week leading up to Christmas (Sanata Clause rally, anyone?), she walks out on you the day after (week long crash starting the 27th) ... and then when you try to phone her back (failed rally attempts), she goes and calls the cops.

    Monday, you get a restraining order.

    Tuesday, she serves you with divorce papers

    Wednesday, you are dragged in to court and unceremoniously divorced.
    The judge gives her half. He takes your kids away, gives her full custody.

    Thursday, you lose your job,

    And friday, your mortgage is foreclosed, and you lose your house.

    You spend the weekend thinking things over, sleeping on your friends couch, and try to come up with a plan, but basicaly fail to do so.

    On Monday, you go out and get a blow job from a hooker.

    So.

    Was Monday a good day, or what?
    On the whole, it was just not a substantial positive result. It made you feel good, and sure it WAS good, but, i mean, c'mon. You've got a few more worries than that will cure.
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • Okay.
    Just to be "Fair" for yah, jlew ...

    This morning product inflation and supply side numbers came out ... neither were good, but neither were worse than expected ... in fact, i think the manufacturer numbers were slightly less bad than expected.

    The market dropped a little, then recovered wandering sideways all day.

    At 2 the beige book came out ...
    basicaly the book of talking points the fed walks in to their next meeting with ... the info was not great to say the least, but again not any worse than any one already knew about ...

    so the market had a little rally last hour ...

    but then most of it faded out.

    So.

    ??? good news ???

    :D
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    Okay.
    Just to be "Fair" for yah, jlew ...

    This morning product inflation and supply side numbers came out ... neither were good, but neither were worse than expected ... in fact, i think the manufacturer numbers were slightly less bad than expected.

    The market dropped a little, then recovered wandering sideways all day.

    At 2 the beige book came out ...
    basicaly the book of talking points the fed walks in to their next meeting with ... the info was not great to say the least, but again not any worse than any one already knew about ...

    so the market had a little rally last hour ...

    but then most of it faded out.

    So.

    ??? good news ???

    :D


    it is good that things are not worse then expected.


    check this out

    yahoo headline

    Inflation Up by Largest Amount in 17 Years
    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080116/economy.html

    CNN Money
    Inflation pressure on consumers ease
    http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/16/news/economy/cpi/index.htm?postversion=2008011610


    The rise in December left prices 4.1 percent above where they were 12 months earlier and marked the highest such jump for any December since 1990. Some wire service reports took that to mean inflation had risen the largest amount in 17 years. But the 12-month change in the latest reading was actually down from the 4.3 percent rise on that basis in November.



    crazy media
  • MasterFramerMasterFramer Posts: 2,268
    jlew24asu wrote:
    it is good that things are not worse then expected.


    check this out

    yahoo headline

    Inflation Up by Largest Amount in 17 Years
    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080116/economy.html

    CNN Money
    Inflation pressure on consumers ease
    http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/16/news/economy/cpi/index.htm?postversion=2008011610


    The rise in December left prices 4.1 percent above where they were 12 months earlier and marked the highest such jump for any December since 1990. Some wire service reports took that to mean inflation had risen the largest amount in 17 years. But the 12-month change in the latest reading was actually down from the 4.3 percent rise on that basis in November.



    crazy media

    Yeah everything is fucking rosey...
    10.31.93 / 10.1.94 / 6.24.95 / 11.4.95 / 10.19-20.96 / 7.16.98 / 7.21.98 / 10.31.00 /8.4.01 Nader Rally/ 10.21.01 / 12.8-9.02 / 6.01.03 / 9.1.05 / 7.15-16,18.06 / 7.20.06 / 7.22-23.06 / Lolla 07
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    Yeah everything is fucking rosey...

    are you searching for a plot of land too?
  • Phily Fed Index number out at 10:00.

    HOLY SHIT!

    DOWN TWENTY ! ! !
    (lowest index number since Oct 2001!)

    HOLY SHIT!

    :eek:
    :eek:
    :eek:


    Housing starts nearly cut by 2\3rd as of this month compared to a year ago, in adition.

    Good news anywhere this morning?
    (besides jobless claims not being horribly horrible? :D )
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    home builders are really taking in on the chin. I think economists are right that 2008 will be another year in decline. (the entire year!) then some recovery in 09. that sector is a true correction/recession.
  • jlew24asu wrote:

    Think i actualy heard him say that monitary policy manipulation could actualy be a negative on the economy in the short term.

    I have a LOT of doubts about "fiscal stimulus packages" ... i think they are "drop in the bucket" solutions ... and like Bernanke said (though hes just parroting the real economists), any excessive fiscal stimulus could beget serious problems for the already "daunting longeterm fiscal challenges this country faces".

    :eek:
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • BTW,

    do you know the ratio of down days to up days since say

    a. the beginning of december
    b. start of 08

    ?

    I know "santa clause rally" will through off A.
    but still curious.
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    Think i actualy heard him say that monitary policy manipulation could actualy be a negative on the economy in the short term.

    I have a LOT of doubts about "fiscal stimulus packages" ... i think they are "drop in the bucket" solutions ... and like Bernanke said (though hes just parroting the real economists), any excessive fiscal stimulus could beget serious problems for the already "daunting longeterm fiscal challenges this country faces".

    :eek:

    true. but this would give a boost...

    Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told lawmakers at a hearing of the Joint Economic Committee on Tuesday that Congress should immediately consider a stimulus package of $50 billion to $75 billion through a combination of tax cuts and increased spending on unemployment benefits and other programs. He also advocated that another $50 billion to $75 billion be set aside in case economic conditions weaken further.

    even if its minimal.
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    Merrill posts worst quarter in its 94 year history

    :eek: wow


    http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080117/merrilllynch.html?.v=1
  • If we get another day like today, we will be below 12000 on the dow.

    :eek:
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • Close:
    Dow = Down 300
    S&P = Down 40

    :eek: :eek: :eek:
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    Close:
    Dow = Down 300
    S&P = Down 40

    :eek: :eek: :eek:

    pick the low. 11800 I'm buying everything in sight
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