Something BIG is about to happen ... Stockwise...
DriftingByTheStorm
Posts: 8,684
Yup.
This isn't fearmongering, it's chart backed analysis.
Okay, there is a dash of fearmongering in here, but to the point:
You can see it on a 3 month chart of the Dow or S&P (They correlate almost identicaly, anyhow) ...
Prices are coiling .. and coiling TIGHT.
Draw an imaginary line with your eye from the underside of that bottom on 1\22 and from the topside of that peak back on 12\10 and point them to the right going under or over (respectively) the tippy-tops of all peaks or valleys on the way (thems trendlines) ...
Notice they come to a glaringly sharp point on the right side ... present day?
That means big breakout coming.
Given my observation that recent up swings have been limited by pure market forces (buyers can no longer out buy the sellers) ... but the most severe major down swings have been propped up only by brute government force (cutting interest rates severly and rapidly) ...
...and sometimes by what appears to be suspect manipulation ... for instance, last week even Steve Liesman, a CNBC analyst, was not shy about acknowledging that something was odd about the gasoline store and motor vehicle sales component of the monthly Retail Sales report. He actualy said it was very hard to understand how these numbers (the only real postive numbers in the report, that reweighted it to +.3% instead of being NEGATIVE)... how these numbers came in to the positive when they were so far off from the early month consensus that it would be down ...
odd ...
but BACK ON POINT ...
i'm just saying, do not be too suprised next week if the market goes on crazy bull rally, or conversely, if it falls through the floor. The chart says we are due.
I personaly think we may see one last massive push by the bulls to move the averages up about 500\50 points (dow\s&p) followed by a huge amount of reistance and stalling ... and then we will probably get a "capitulation".
However, the real wild card is Monday. It is a US market holiday, and anyone with half a memory should be able to recall what happened on MLK holiday ... think SoGen Trader $7 billion lost in "the global market correction" ... yeah ... the global markets took a huge leading start on selling off, since it could beat the US to the punch ... there are still some fears floating around Wall St. of this happening again on Monday. We shall see. Yikes!
Just a theory though.
But one the chart seems to support.
Hmm.
This isn't fearmongering, it's chart backed analysis.
Okay, there is a dash of fearmongering in here, but to the point:
You can see it on a 3 month chart of the Dow or S&P (They correlate almost identicaly, anyhow) ...
Prices are coiling .. and coiling TIGHT.
Draw an imaginary line with your eye from the underside of that bottom on 1\22 and from the topside of that peak back on 12\10 and point them to the right going under or over (respectively) the tippy-tops of all peaks or valleys on the way (thems trendlines) ...
Notice they come to a glaringly sharp point on the right side ... present day?
That means big breakout coming.
Given my observation that recent up swings have been limited by pure market forces (buyers can no longer out buy the sellers) ... but the most severe major down swings have been propped up only by brute government force (cutting interest rates severly and rapidly) ...
...and sometimes by what appears to be suspect manipulation ... for instance, last week even Steve Liesman, a CNBC analyst, was not shy about acknowledging that something was odd about the gasoline store and motor vehicle sales component of the monthly Retail Sales report. He actualy said it was very hard to understand how these numbers (the only real postive numbers in the report, that reweighted it to +.3% instead of being NEGATIVE)... how these numbers came in to the positive when they were so far off from the early month consensus that it would be down ...
odd ...
but BACK ON POINT ...
i'm just saying, do not be too suprised next week if the market goes on crazy bull rally, or conversely, if it falls through the floor. The chart says we are due.
I personaly think we may see one last massive push by the bulls to move the averages up about 500\50 points (dow\s&p) followed by a huge amount of reistance and stalling ... and then we will probably get a "capitulation".
However, the real wild card is Monday. It is a US market holiday, and anyone with half a memory should be able to recall what happened on MLK holiday ... think SoGen Trader $7 billion lost in "the global market correction" ... yeah ... the global markets took a huge leading start on selling off, since it could beat the US to the punch ... there are still some fears floating around Wall St. of this happening again on Monday. We shall see. Yikes!
Just a theory though.
But one the chart seems to support.
Hmm.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Comments
So you are saying the market could be up or down next week?
I'm being facetious :P
I'm worried about these fed rate cuts. Sure the rate cuts lead to big rallies but as most business people know, there is no such thing as a free lunch. So the Fed rate cut may have a short term benefit, however in the long run we will still have to pay somehow for the recessionary forces (for example plummeting dollar).
Bridge School '06 Night 1 & 2
Venice '07 pummeled by the sleet!
Nijmegen '07
Werchter '07
April Fools ~ LA1
i like the way you think.
Today (hey it's 5am on Wednesday, i pulled a 12 hour day at werk, 5 till 5, blech) is going to be key, imho.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers come out at 8:30am.
The [url=http://www.alaron.com/economic_calendar.aspxconsensus[/url] is .3% ... and we're talking about inflation here.
You can read the link, but CPI is as direct a measurement as we get ... it is literaly a month on month comparison of the price of a huge swath of consumer products.
On any given monthly release, CPI is apt to have an impressive affect on the markets, but given the current state of affairs, it is nearly paramount.
What i mean is, the biggest fear in the world right now is inflation. For most of those who know enough to care (and most of those who have the money certainly care enough to know), inflation is THE biggest threat to economic security in the US.
Last year, CPI came in at 4.1% ... meaning your dollar had a near full nickle shaved off it (oh wait you can't clip them -- they aren't silver, and that's the problem).
We are, in all likelyhood, shaping up to best that this year.
But either way, the problem here is that
a. the market is ready for a breakout, per price analysis
b. it has failed multiple times since last week to break out to the upside and everytime has been pulled back down by sellers gone wild.
c. the real fundamentals say "danger, will robinson"
d. she is skirting much closer to the downside of a breakout after late afternoon selling yesterday
e. CPI is not very likely to come in under expectations
So.
All this to say,
one - i'm really tired and rambling as usual
two - good times if numbers some how (cough cough fudged cough) come in lower than consensus
three - grab your nose and take the plunge with me if it comes in above expectations
four - who the hell knows if it is as expected, probably a rally followed by selling just for the hell of it.
?
Big move coming up
?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Jack B. (floor trader corespondent) on CNBC just said "There are whispers going around here that the number may come in a little bit hotter than expected."
Of course, he also went on to talk about buying value, and there is real value, and buying when other people are selling, and look at what Buffet is doing ... blah blah blah.
None of which i dismiss ... its all true ... there is value, of course ... the problem isn't that the economy is smoke and mirrors ... it is that the monitary policy which is the BLOOD of the economy that is smoke and mirrors ... and at some point, despite how strong the beast has grown, if the blood runs thin, the beast will die. And that is what this number is relfective of, and that is what i am worried about (along with plenty of others watching these numbers at 8:30)
:sigh:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
No.
Its getting "strange" out there.
We are in one hell of a sideways pattern here.
We blew right through what should have, according to the charts, been a break out.
Instead, CNBC is hyping up that "this may not be a good time for traders to go short" and "traders looking to the short side should be careful right now."
Alternately, if you watch them between 5 and 7am, you see a totally different CNBC where they are preaching doom & gloom on a massive global scale (no bullshit) ... talking about trillion dollar write downs ... which = very very very bad shit for the US and the world.
Anyhow.
I don't want to hype it too much, and like i said, it seems the "pivot protection team" is hard at work buying losers in this market (contrary to what i really want to believe, which is that they are following their policy directive to only initiate and stimulate business intervention in the markets through above board negotiations).
Honestly, who the fuck knows. All this really bad news keeps coming out and the market, for some strange reason, is fighting REALY hard to not go down.
Here is an example or two.
The Philly Fed Numbers, or the General Business Conditions Index came in on Thursday ... the expecation or consensus was between -15 and ZERO.
The ACTUAL number came in at -25 ... and yet the market hesistated significantly, actualy fighting to go up afterwards ... before the market overcame that struggle and pushed it lower, but not by scary numbers down.
Wednesday, the day before the above, CPI and Housing Starts came back. Both horrible. Inflation is worse than expected, and the expected was high. Housing starts are down just shy of 30% off of January '07.
The market should have gone significantly down on that news, but it just got pulled back up. Maybe its innocent self protection by business interests ... but that money is coming from somewhere ... and the banks pouring that money in to buy those stocks (when they should be selling!) are the same banks that claim they are out of reserves and begging the Fed at the discount window to print money.
Hmm.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Looks like we may have a had a week's delay,
but after another 5 days of nothing good ... and i mean lots of bad economic indictaors and numbers ... several even worse than expected ... it looks like the dead-cat-bounce rally is over ...
Nothing ever broke out to the upside of teh sideways range, and as of close Friday, we were already testing the downside of the range.
Currently (there is sunday trading afternoon) the market is down past the support line and is pushing past what would be considered a breakout level.
Tomorrow will probably be volatile as hell.
I would expect some bullshit emergency announcement either tomorrow or Tuesday ... we'll probably see an Ambac bailout RE-announced for the (what is it now?) 3rd or 4th time ... we may get another off-meeting rate cut ... who knows ... they will try something desperate to keep this market up just a hair longer ... gotta get that Dem in office first, right?
But this week i expect even the best efforts of the market riggers to fail. There is just no upside left, imho.
We'll see,
but it looks like this coming week could bring a pretty deep selloff.
In otherwords, Jlew's great buy of 3 weeks ago may turn out to have been jumping the gun a "tad".
Where is Jlew anyhow?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
The market is SICK SICK SICK.
Dow is at 12040.
Low today was 12024 just 5 minutes ago.
This is at CLOSE.
Market is closing at daily low.
It is closing at monthly low.
It is closing at year to date low.
And it is closing below a the low going back to July 2006 (two thousand and SIX)
Thats 3 years profit gone.
Today, all things considered, was a moderately heavy down day. -215 on the DOW.
HOWEVER, TOMORROW COULD BE KILLER!
We have EMPLOYEMENT NUMBERS coming in.
Shorts did not even bother to cover going in to close here.
You almost always see pretty significant short covering (market goes up, cause people who were selling buy back) at end of day ... the fact that we have this very important Jobs related news out tomorrow morning before open and no institutional players are even bothering to cover their positions at what is already at a long long time low ... is pretty fucking troublesome.
What is worse is we are only 30-40 points away from the Dow breaking 12000. We broke it once in the middle of the day during that "SoGen Trade Scandal" where the Fed did the emergency rate cut ... but did not close down there.
Going back below 12000 will be a horribly bearish sign for an already overwhelmingly bearish market.
It will also trigger a lot of buy stops where people who were bullish give up and sell.
And THAT will drive the market down more ... and assuming we have the bad jobs report tomorrow, it will already be moving down anyhow ... once it gets another few points below based on that it will trigger MORE selling where people are convinced the "breakout" isn't fake and will start shorting like rabid monkeys ... and THAT will be AWFUL!
Tomorrow could be the big move people (its not just me folks) are talking about.
This does NOT look good.
:(
Oh. FYI
These are the numbers to beat.
If we come in -50k or more, YIKES! Even if we come out FLAT, its BAD. -50k is AWFUL, as far as the market is concerned.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
SO HOW IS IT GOING THIS MORNING?
THOSE SONS OF A BITCH!
GODDAMN I'M GOOD
15 minutes until the Jobs Numers come out...
Bernanke and company, the Fed Reserve Board has initiated a $100 BILLION DOLLAR LIQUIDITY INJECTION!
$100 BILLION DOLLARS ... if a rate cut is a prescription for a bottle of morphine, a TAF injection is like a syringe in the arm ...
Keep in mind, THE FED HAD THE JOBS NUMBERS LAST NIGHT!
THINK THEY MAY KNOW SOMETHING BAD???
:rolleyes:
WOW WOW WOW
In the time it took me to write this piece the market went from a gut \ knee jerk reaction of shooting up to absolutely COLLAPSING.
OH FUCKING SHIT.
IF THE JOBS NUMBERS REALLY ARE BAD, IT IS FUCKED!
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Nonfarm Payrolls, with consensus expectations being FLAT (NO CHANGE), came in at MINUS SIXTY THREE THOUSAND JOBS!
NO RECESSION?
The market is IN THE DUMPS.
DOW is below 12000.
SP is below 1300.
:cool:
watch out folks.
B-E-A-R Market.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Market had a HUGE bounce after it bottomed out on some intraday support levels.
However its starting a pretty serious slide again now.
Regardless of where the market goes, the dollar is now continuing its slide to new lows.
73 on the dollar index now.
Down from 78 last summer.
I called 69 by this summer (in December), and it looks like we will probably see that. Unfortunately.
Once the dollar gets in the 60's we are gonna start seeing some serious problems in the economy.
Already lagging Treasury Bill auction sales are going to start getting VERY weak ... which is a big problem because selling TBills is one of the most fundamental ways the Fed brings new currency in to the market. This is basicaly saying that foreigners like the Chinese and Russians no longer want the dollar.
Not being able to inflate the currency by Tbills sales means the only other method is to get the banks to take the bait on lower Fed Funds rates ... but the banks can't take the rates if the CONSUMER does not WANT THE CREDIT.
If the economy is in the tubes, and consumers are stacked up on debt already, and their dollar is already devalued so they are getting thrifty, it is going to be really hard to get people to pick up the burden of expanding the money supply to ease the credit crunch ... because they are too busy trying to pay off their already existing debt (and upside down mortgages!) ...
as they continue to pay off debt and not take on new debt, the supply of money in America literally contracts.
This will start the cycle all over again.
:(
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Lol.
Yeah i had a good day today.
Engaged in good ole American "short selling"
along with just about everyone else on Wall St.
I look at the market numbers as a reflection of sentiment more so than actual impending doom (and rightly so) but at somepoint (as someone said on CNBC this morning) the markets getting to a certain low level may end up forcing institutions to mark their assets to market, causing more writedowns causing more selling and forcing us in to a cycle.
The bottom line for today is that the jobs numbers indicate SERIOUS slow down issues approaching the economy. A recession is UNDENIABLE at this point, and despite some of the pundits on CNBC, this is the start, not the middle or end of this cycle.
Brace yourselves.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
this is why i keep my limited assets in an envelope between the mattresses of my bed. damn the man.
to dust i guess,
forgotten and absorbed into the earth below,..
fuck.
I love how everyone is sitting here making fun of me.
No one can even bother to own up and just say,
"You know what drifting, that was pretty insightful of you. Good analysis."
Sheesh.
I've been calling it for 3 weeks.
Sure, its been delayed because there was STRONG (like 3 year) support at the level i was expecting a down move past.
But I stepped up on THIS Monday and said "probably this week" and i also said "expect to see The Fed attempt to prop up the market when it happens".
What happened today?
We got the news that triggered the selloff i called, and we got the Fed trying to prop up the sell off, just like i said.
As much as you would love to believe that was all just fucking coincidence and that it was an "easy call" to say that the Fed would do this,
as of this morning NO ONE (CNBC or otherwise) was expecting the Fed to do what they did.
And yet, instead of getting any intelligent discussion, a bunch of pathetic responses mocking me for having a fucking brain.
I expect too fucking much from this board.
:rolleyes:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
i thought when you said something big was gonna happen, i thought you meant China's selloff nuclear option or complete depression or something crazy. You know: vintage Drifting stuff.
the next few months or years will suck. happens every once in a while. oh well.
i'll own up. i wasn't mocking you, in case my comments were any part of the inspiration for yours here. i checked those graphs, and frankly i was glad to have them available. indeed, thank you. and i agree, sucks that some serious shit is going down per american history and all that happens around here is goofing or stereotypical bickering between haplessly-rigid ideologues, but really we [the majority people] are fucked,... so why let the sad song play?
to dust i guess,
forgotten and absorbed into the earth below,..
You know, just to illustrate how big of an ass your are being about this, the majority of economists still have their head in the sand and do not even acknowledge we are in a recession yet.
Further, at the time i posted this thread, up until yesterday even, there were pundits all over CNBC saying "we've already tested the lows, and this looks like a bottom" ... only Art Cassin (spelling? who is a L-O-N-G time floor trader who they have as an analyst) and maybe 1 or 2 other random guests here and there try to throw in that we need to "TEST the lows from January" ... and even that is a pretty weak statement regarding a big move to the downside.
FYI, we are below those lows right now, so?
:rolleyes:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Well I'll be damned... I NEVER KNEW the recession was undeniable. I thought we've been a recession the last year. Hmm.. Glad ole DBS tuned me in..
So, my question is this... Since you behold all of the monetary brain power of the world, why can't you get the fucking fed reserve job and get this shit straight??????????
Get back to wiping yourself off!
You know.
I'm gonna take another approach here.
I'm really glad to see that the people here on the pit (despite acting like assholes in the way they express it) are actually pretty honest in their views and well informed about the economy.
Unfortunately for America, the policy makers and talking heads are either geniuniely disconnected and ill advised, or they are deliberately "behind the 8 ball" intentionaly allowing the economy to slip as slowly in to the ground as they can.
In other words, I'm glad you have been aware we were in a recession for quite sometime, but contrary to what the braniacs around here think, it is NOT common knowledge on the street.
Until today, there was NO concensus (at least on CNBC) that this was true. Today is the FIRST day i heard Steve Liesman (a conservative and unemotional type) -- who reviews all of the Fed and Indicator releases -- say, "Until today i think there was a large debate about recession, but after these numbers i think it is now undeniable. You know i looked back at the numbers since we got this jobs report, and i have to say ... you know if you look back in history, which i just have, there is no period on record where there were two consecutive months of negative jobs growth EXCEPT for when we were in a recession. To me that pretty much sums it up."
So while it must feel real great to sit here and mock me, even though i was the one fucking telling you people last August that shit was going to REALLY hit the fan this year (and believe me i was taking shit for it then too) ... you should really just lay off and feel proud of yourself for being in the "upper class of economists" yourself, because if you've been calling for a recession for a year you could get a job at a big investment publishing house.
Actualy, thats not true. That is why most economists are wrong so often, because if they said the truth, their employers would fire them for publishing "fearmongering rubbish".
If I opened it now would you not understand?