Point me to a store that sells any products made in the US. In fact point me to any product, besides cars, motorcycles, or other motorized vehicles, that are made in the US.
and that my friend is the crux of the problem ...
although there are tons of things outside your list that are made locally - like clothes, food products, plates, cups, etc ...
that's the toughest challenge yet. how do we bring manufacturing jobs back to the US when they can use cheaper labor markets overseas? one solution woyuld be to tarrifs on imports but you mention tarrifs and our "friends" on the right go bananas.
the utopian solution would be that the standard of living increases in other countries to the point where their labor force makes a wage comparable to that of US workers . Nice idea but light years away probably.
But if we want to cash in the coming boom of green technologies we can't jsut be involved in the service end we have to be involved in the manufacturing end as well. How do we do this? How have other countries like Germany that have a high standard of living, continue to manufacture products?
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest."
"Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy."
I'm in the opposite situation as you. I work in advertising, most of our clients are financial firms, and I'm looking to leave. I'm still going to stay in advertising but I'm looking to get back into pharmaceutical advertising. It is one of those industries where economic downturns do not affect as much as other areas of advertising. I'm scared shitless of what might happen. I have a pretty decent amount of money tied up in stocks and mutual funds. I have taken a bit of a beating lately but I'm still up from when I first got into the market. I ponder daily wether I should get my money out now or ride this shit storm out.
I am a man of many hats. I was an engineer while at the same time I was a freelance photographer for many newpapers and a few mags. When I was downsized in 05 in Telecom I started working fulltime as a photographer. Well lets say that well dried up pretty quick. Newpapers are cutting everyone so once I saw that market drying up I decided to get myself a job that needed to be done on a daily basis. Now I have been offered by a few Telecoms a position but I was in that industry for 12 years and I know how ficil(sp??) it can be. Do I risk the stability I have now for a bigger payout that most likely will not last as long. As far as my stocks and what not, I am not worried I don't have any real money in anything right now so I am not losing much. For me its a question of stability.
that's the toughest challenge yet. how do we bring manufacturing jobs back to the US when they can use cheaper labor markets overseas? one solution woyuld be to tarrifs on imports but you mention tarrifs and our "friends" on the right go bananas.
the utopian solution would be that the standard of living increases in other countries to the point where their labor force makes a wage comparable to that of US workers . Nice idea but light years away probably.
But if we want to cash in the coming boom of green technologies we can't jsut be involved in the service end we have to be involved in the manufacturing end as well. How do we do this? How have other countries like Germany that have a high standard of living, continue to manufacture products?
Make the US an attractive haven for industry with a good tax system and a ready made labor force. IE. Bring trade school back into high school. Don't make Vocations seem like bad options. Liberal Arts colleges have done a great job at marketing especially with all the great lottery paid scholarship options but at the end of the day... how is an Art degree really going to get you paid? Hell I majored in Communication and Electronic Media, if I relied completely on that I'd only be making around 12 grand a year unless I was doing more with promotions and advertising but I wanted to be a broadcaster.
Perhaps the standard of living is artificially too high or rather we have simply found ways to increase profitablility that are no longer viable. Sure labor is cheap in china, but fuel costs are now leveling the playing field. The market has changed, same with groceries. In a world where energy costs are high, in season local fruits and veggies become far smarter options than prepackaged frozen dinners or foriegn foods, but the people have to learn to adjust to these changes and adapt.
Tarriffs only hurt the rest of the worlds peoples. I'd rather find ways to make companies want to invest in this country.
My Girlfriend said to me..."How many guitars do you need?" and I replied...."How many pairs of shoes do you need?" She got really quiet.
Make the US an attractive haven for industry with a good tax system and a ready made labor force. IE. Bring trade school back into high school. Don't make Vocations seem like bad options. Liberal Arts colleges have done a great job at marketing especially with all the great lottery paid scholarship options but at the end of the day... how is an Art degree really going to get you paid? Hell I majored in Communication and Electronic Media, if I relied completely on that I'd only be making around 12 grand a year unless I was doing more with promotions and advertising but I wanted to be a broadcaster.
Perhaps the standard of living is artificially too high or rather we have simply found ways to increase profitablility that are no longer viable. Sure labor is cheap in china, but fuel costs are now leveling the playing field. The market has changed, same with groceries. In a world where energy costs are high, in season local fruits and veggies become far smarter options than prepackaged frozen dinners or foriegn foods, but the people have to learn to adjust to these changes and adapt.
Tarriffs only hurt the rest of the worlds peoples. I'd rather find ways to make companies want to invest in this country.
you make such a great point about our standard of living. it is artificially high. look at how much crap we buy that we don't need. we work our asses off to afford all the crap we use, most of which is unnecessasy stuff just make to make our convenient lives that much more convenient, to the point that it becomes inconvenient, needing two incomes jsut to get by. fuel costs and insurance rates are artificially high so that the fat cats in those industries can get richer and ricjer. and we keep goign more and more into debt to keep up, spurring the current credit crisis. i suppose it's like consumption bubble or a standard of living bubble that is going to pop and We'll have to simplify big time to get ourselves out if it.
regaerding making our country an attractive haven for businesses, which candidate do you think has the best plan to do this? I've heard Obama mention lowein the corporate tax rate but also closing tax loopholes. sounds nice but i ahven't realyl heard enough specifics from either side, although I imagine they will both be talknig about it a lot more pretty soon if fortis' prediction is correct.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest."
"Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy."
I guess the markets plunged a bit yesterday (dow down 200pts or so, SP down 28).
Remember, Jlew was calling a bottom at DOW 12,800 - 12,600.
DOW is now at 11,160. Thats about 1,500 points lower. :(
No end is in sight.
US Home Foreclosures DOUBLED AGAIN in June.
I think they doubled in Feb or March, so the is really a QUADRUPLING.
BERNANKE's dumb ass is on TV right now, testifying about how best to INTERVENE in the markets ... about what is needed, what further power is needed for the Fed to save us all.
What a big fucking joke.
:sigh:
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
I guess the markets plunged a bit yesterday (dow down 200pts or so, SP down 28).
Remember, Jlew was calling a bottom at DOW 12,800 - 12,600.
DOW is now at 11,160. Thats about 1,500 points lower. :(
No end is in sight.
US Home Foreclosures DOUBLED AGAIN in June.
I think they doubled in Feb or March, so the is really a QUADRUPLING.
BERNANKE's dumb ass is on TV right now, testifying about how best to INTERVENE in the markets ... about what is needed, what further power is needed for the Fed to save us all.
What a big fucking joke.
:sigh:
Yeah, I saw that. It is disappointing to say the least, but not entirely surprising.
We can expect big changes in basically all areas of life these next few years.
The pride cometh before the fall.
Remember people, as the inimitable Stuart Wilde* says:
"No one cares to experience adverse circumstances, but one's emotional response to those circumstances is very much a subjective decision. Thus, there are no real crises, there are only circumstances, which of themselves when observed correctly are just energy. If you had no concept of high and low, better or worst, good or bad, you couldn't experience negative emotion or crisis. So crises are only crises when you first establish an opinion, and secondly, when you quantify or qualify your experiences."
What we're facing is the death of the ego. The death of our beliefs of what "should" be. When we can get past these ideas we fixate on. we can adapt with ease, generate energy and be front-runners of the new ways that are being ushered in as we speak.
*Stuart Wilde, "The Whispering Winds of Change", 1993.
"The opposite of a fact is falsehood, but the opposite of one profound truth may very well be another profound truth." ~ Niels Bohr
i mean,
even when it is in a legitimate news source,
you people give me shit.
sometimes bad things happen.
you may have to deal with it some day.
god forbid, i try and give someone some warning.
guess it is unwanted.
:(
it's all good.
thing is, as others already mention...what to do with this information? sure, people may 'know...but then what? do i really pull all my $$$ out of the stock market at a tremendous loss on a 'what-if'.......or ride it out til things self-correct, as the cycles usually do? beyond that, most have very little control over their jobs, prices, etc. so yes...we can know and it's great to be informed....but yea, that's it?
so no, not unwanted...but sure to some degree most probably don't like to be reminded of things so out of their own control that leaves them feeling rather helpless. it's ominous and sure, rather depressing eh. sure, good idea to try and save up some cash, have a nest egg, etc. my personal nest egg is all invested, so yes...i just hope all can hold on, at least ride out the storm until needed. or, guess i'd take a big hit...that's the gamble, that's life. i sure HOPE we don't have a true depression again, i cannot even imagine...but i am an optimist at heart, so yea.....still hope things won't get THAT bad. and if they do? well we're fucked, most of us anyway, in any case. yikes.
It's time for the fed and markets to just suck it up and get this over with. Interest rates should have been raised a year ago, this past year has done nothing but make the impending recession more powerful.
The dollar and oil are at the core of this problem. I disagree with manufacturing being a cause, or trade deficits. We can survive as a service based economy. We can't survive with miscalculated interest rates killing the dollar at a time when oil speculators are just absolutely going insane.
I received an interesting email yesterday from ALL of the major airline CEO's calling for government regulations to curb oil speculation. Very telling that these CEOs, who undoubtedly are NOT all democrats, are really pushing for some government intervention. An interesting excerpt from that email:
"Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that are known.
Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and then sell it to each other again and again. A barrel of oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers pick up the final tab. Some market experts estimate that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per barrel in unnecessary speculative costs."
I'm not so sure everyone knows how these speculators function, so let me drop this on you....
Say oil is $160/bar. Oil is traded in 1000 barrel lots, so a single lot is worth roughly $160k on the market. Would you believe that the margin on those lots is ONLY $10K?!?!?! These guys are paying less than 10% to gamble, assuming they can deal with the consequences later if this were to somehow fall. But it won't fall because it's entirely too cheap for them to line one another's pockets. A simple step by the government like requiring 50% margin on purchases would DRAMATICALLY slow speculation, imo.
If the government, which I absolutely HATE getting involved in the economy typically, were to impose small regulations on speculators as well as pumped up interest rates a point, this snowball of doom would slow dramatically.
The markets would hurt after these moves, sensing panic from the Fed, but it would pass. The dollar would strengthen as the government and Fed show that they have some balls. Inflation would slow. Food and gas prices drop. Unemployment would level out as companies face lower overhead costs associated with fuel and shipments.
Instead we'll sit here and talk about drilling for more oil, a completely pointless effort right now. The problem isn't supply, there is absolutely PLENTY of supply right now. Oil prices didn't drop a dime when Saudi agreed to increase output, what the hell is stating that ANWR will produce oil in a decade going to do for current prices? NOTHING.
Bernanke needs to go and the GOP needs to work with the dems to dissuade the oil speculators.
"Worse than traitors in arms are the men who pretend loyalty to the flag, feast and fatten on the misfortunes of the nation while patriotic blood is crimsoning the plains." -- Abraham Lincoln
I am a man of many hats. I was an engineer while at the same time I was a freelance photographer for many newpapers and a few mags. When I was downsized in 05 in Telecom I started working fulltime as a photographer. Well lets say that well dried up pretty quick. Newpapers are cutting everyone so once I saw that market drying up I decided to get myself a job that needed to be done on a daily basis. Now I have been offered by a few Telecoms a position but I was in that industry for 12 years and I know how ficil(sp??) it can be. Do I risk the stability I have now for a bigger payout that most likely will not last as long. As far as my stocks and what not, I am not worried I don't have any real money in anything right now so I am not losing much. For me its a question of stability.
On a side note, where are you in Jersey?
As a telecom guy myself, one who has been in the industry about the same amount of time as you, I think it's actually a good time to get back in. While other sectors are struggling, the internet and bandwidth demands are just absolutely BOOMING. The stocks aren't reflecting this due to the economy as a whole, but networks are running out of room. The fiber glut that killed a lot of jobs is becoming less and less. I work for a gigantic broadband wholesaler and I can tell you that we're running out of fiber in some areas. Video, VOIP, etc...it's all booming. I may be misquoting this, but AT&T made a statement a couple months ago that they expect their bandwidth demands to triple over the next 7-10 years.
"Worse than traitors in arms are the men who pretend loyalty to the flag, feast and fatten on the misfortunes of the nation while patriotic blood is crimsoning the plains." -- Abraham Lincoln
Would that be good for someone like me who has their money invested into a Money Market account? When I put my money in last year I was earning 4.25% interest.. as the fed kept lowering interest rates on housing, my earnings dropped to only about 2% now. :(
REAL Inflation for 2007-2008 is running upwards of 15%
it may be even worse
but who the fuck would know since the Fed stopped printing M3 Money Supply statistics over a year ago now.
Anway, at 15%
that means you LOST 13% on that bank account.
OUCH.
Market was down 230 points (DJIA) at the worst today,
closed out down around 130 or 160, i believe.
2 year low on the major indexes.
We are in a BAD BAD way.
They were talking today about The Fed granting DISCOUNT WINDOW TO Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
WTF?
That is a SUBSIDY of a SUBSIDY.
That is like 2nd degree ass raping.
wtf?
How do you subsidize something that is already subsidized?
Goddamn.
Fuck it.
:(
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
"Worse than traitors in arms are the men who pretend loyalty to the flag, feast and fatten on the misfortunes of the nation while patriotic blood is crimsoning the plains." -- Abraham Lincoln
The bank will reopen Monday as IndyMac Federal Bank, run by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. At the time of the bank's closing today, about 10,000 depositors had approximately $1 billion in total uninsured deposits. The bank held $19 billion in deposits at the time of its failure
well, hallefuckingleuja.
:(
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Point me to a store that sells any products made in the US. In fact point me to any product, besides cars, motorcycles, or other motorized vehicles, that are made in the US.
I get your point, but just for the record, I'll bet that just about every instrument that the guys in PJ play is American made. I know that all those Fenders, Gibsons, Gretschs, Martins that they play are DEFINITELY American made. American made guitars/basses are still preferred by most musicians around the world! But unfortunately, that's not going to help our economy that much.
Well for starters,
the government placed uptick restrictions and out right "no short" rules on all the major banks.
Its hard to have a market meltdown when you cant even sell the stock.
Beyond that,
i believe, after this announcement we had a massive bail-out bill signed in private by President Boosh.
Further, TPTB manipulated the price of oil back down off its peak, removing some of the immediate short term pressures on the US market.
All that being said,
the Fortis Bank prediction said "within weeks", and July-August is only around 6-8 weeks.
I'd say that given the market is once again headed down (DOW is now 300 points from being in the 10,000 range again), the Fed is now completely neutered (can't cut rates, and WAS expected to RAISE rates shortly, to save the dollar), and the bail out has already happened ... and yet Fannie and Freddie are still widely expected to need total government recapitalization ...
i would say that prediction remains largely plausible.
Who knows what the fuck will happen.
Certainly it is ridiculous to accuse me of fearmongering, on account of my only printing here NEWS that was REPORTED by FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
I didin't post some fucking Alex Jones article, or some crazy blog site.
I posted a fucking write up about a major bank making a market prediction.
And yet, in this little sandbox, all the babies cry out that i'm scaring them with my fearmongering, simply for trying to post up links to valid news articles for discussion.
:cool:
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
hey i give you credit you where on target ...but i'm not happy with the melt down .
well god knows i'm not HAPPY about it.
This isn't about "hey DBTS was right, lets gloat over it"
this is about,
"Hey when people with half of a brain step up and repeatedly warn you 'man i kind've know what i'm talking about, man this is kind've a big deal' ... it would behoove folks to get over themselves to some extent, do some homework, and recognize that sometimes expecting the worst isn't simply reducible to derogatories like 'fearmonger' and 'tin foil hat nutter' ... and maybe try to ask themselves what it is that THEY were blocking mentally that someone else saw."
Because, once again, this is NOT about "ooh DBTS is so smart, and ooh DBTS was 'right' ..."
no, its about "what can I do as another contributing member of society to recognize the same OBVIOUS, but somewhat hidden, fundamentals that some other folks here were hip to, and how can i go forward with that information in a CONSTRUCTIVE fashion to help stop this mess from happening again."
LET ME GET THIS STRAIGHT:
The point of these daily\weekly and repetitive exercises in "fear mongering" from my end was NOT about trying to scare folks for the sake of scaring them, or to put down predictions just to gloat after the fact ... IT WAS AN ATTEMPT TO EDUCATE ... both YOU and ME ...
I learned A LOT trying to reach out to the people on this board ... the constant brick wall i was rammed up against with all the "fearmonger" and "tin foil hat nutter" responses FORCED ME TO DO MY HOMEWORK and i learned a SHIT TON because of it.
But, besides trying to force my own awareness, i was trying to force YOURS.
Look folks, i don't think people here are idiots. I wouldn't be here if i thought that.
I'm here because, like Mr. Vedder himself, i happen to think that Pearl Jam fans on the whole are at least a small notch above the average bear when it comes to consciousness, awareness, and the content of their character. I believe that truly.
THAT was what this whole thing was about, from my POV.
I DON'T feel a whole lot of personal power over this crisis, but the one thing i saw an opportunity to do here was HELP EXPLAIN IT TO OTHERS so that maybe one day THEY would also see, and a MOVEMENT could begin to FOMENT.
That has ALWAYS been my intent.
Whether i ever or at anytime did that articulately or not, is beyond my analysis (i know i got more than a few positive feed back letters via PM, but i also got a lot of muck thrown my way on AMT) ... and certainly i never claim to have held my cool at any given moment.
This is intense stuff, and from my perspective at least, with what i deem myself to be knowledgeable of, it is intensely PASSIONATE material for discussion.
What i was HOPING to achieve in this forum was to INSPIRE SOME OF THAT SAME PASSION IN OTHERS.
Because, HONESTLY folks, the ONLY way we are going to change or challenge this juggernaut is if A WHOLE LOT OF PEOPLE GET THAT SAME PASSION, AWARENESS, AND DESIRE TO MAKE REAL CHANGE.
And real change starts with REAL UNDERSTANDING, followed by REAL solutions.
And ONCE again, i will plug a movie which i feel the time has come to plug shamelessly: The Money Masters.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
well god knows i'm not HAPPY about it.
This isn't about "hey DBTS was right, lets gloat over it"
this is about,
"Hey when people with half of a brain step up and repeatedly warn you 'man i kind've know what i'm talking about, man this is kind've a big deal' ... it would behoove folks to get over themselves to some extent, do some homework, and recognize that sometimes expecting the worst isn't simply reducible to derogatories like 'fearmonger' and 'tin foil hat nutter' ... and maybe try to ask themselves what it is that THEY were blocking mentally that someone else saw."
Because, once again, this is NOT about "ooh DBTS is so smart, and ooh DBTS was 'right' ..."
no, its about "what can I do as another contributing member of society to recognize the same OBVIOUS, but somewhat hidden, fundamentals that some other folks here were hip to, and how can i go forward with that information in a CONSTRUCTIVE fashion to help stop this mess from happening again."
LET ME GET THIS STRAIGHT:
The point of these daily\weekly and repetitive exercises in "fear mongering" from my end was NOT about trying to scare folks for the sake of scaring them, or to put down predictions just to gloat after the fact ... IT WAS AN ATTEMPT TO EDUCATE ... both YOU and ME ...
I learned A LOT trying to reach out to the people on this board ... the constant brick wall i was rammed up against with all the "fearmonger" and "tin foil hat nutter" responses FORCED ME TO DO MY HOMEWORK and i learned a SHIT TON because of it.
But, besides trying to force my own awareness, i was trying to force YOURS.
Look folks, i don't think people here are idiots. I wouldn't be here if i thought that.
I'm here because, like Mr. Vedder himself, i happen to think that Pearl Jam fans on the whole are at least a small notch above the average bear when it comes to consciousness, awareness, and the content of their character. I believe that truly.
THAT was what this whole thing was about, from my POV.
I DON'T feel a whole lot of personal power over this crisis, but the one thing i saw an opportunity to do here was HELP EXPLAIN IT TO OTHERS so that maybe one day THEY would also see, and a MOVEMENT could begin to FOMENT.
That has ALWAYS been my intent.
Whether i ever or at anytime did that articulately or not, is beyond my analysis (i know i got more than a few positive feed back letters via PM, but i also got a lot of muck thrown my way on AMT) ... and certainly i never claim to have held my cool at any given moment.
This is intense stuff, and from my perspective at least, with what i deem myself to be knowledgeable of, it is intensely PASSIONATE material for discussion.
What i was HOPING to achieve in this forum was to INSPIRE SOME OF THAT SAME PASSION IN OTHERS.
Because, HONESTLY folks, the ONLY way we are going to change or challenge this juggernaut is if A WHOLE LOT OF PEOPLE GET THAT SAME PASSION, AWARENESS, AND DESIRE TO MAKE REAL CHANGE.
And real change starts with REAL UNDERSTANDING, followed by REAL solutions.
And ONCE again, i will plug a movie which i feel the time has come to plug shamelessly: The Money Masters.
no i thank you i have been clueless for yrs about economy and government so anytime i see things that give me a clue i read and take notes so thanks for that ...
thats the vibe i was getting from that "totoal meltdown" prediction... i took it as catastrophic depression? i dont think this is that bad?
Ask yourself where we would be RIGHT NOW if the government had not just all but promised the market THE LARGEST BAIL OUT IN HISTORY.
And earlier last week, before that, THE SECOND LARGEST BAIL OUT IN HISTORY. And two weeks before that? THE THIRD LARGEST BAIL OUT IN HISTORY.
Ask yourself that, brother.
Yes, this is all but one wheat penny shy of a "total financial market meltdown".
If you can't own up to that assertion, then i have lost the battle.
The market is royally fucked. The ONLY thing keeping it from crashing 1000 points a day from now until christmas is the fact that the government is prepared to throw nearly ONE TRILLION DOLLARS at it with less than a week of debate on the house floor.
Look, predictions don't figure in unquantifiable unknowns like massive government bailouts. THIS IS A MELTDOWN, plain and simple.
And lets wait another month or two and see how close we get to that "depression".
There is still PLENTY of time for more horrible things to happen, like a total unwinding of the BOND market, or the dollar (which got absolutely WHACKED today) or god forbid, more stupid stubborn banks going down before or after this bailout.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
And yet, in this little sandbox, all the babies cry out that i'm scaring them with my fearmongering, simply for trying to post up links to valid news articles for discussion.
:cool:
Just post an Obama is awesome thread and all will be well...
Progress is not made by everyone joining some new fad,
and reveling in it's loyalty. It's made by forming coalitions
over specific principles, goals, and policies.
Comments
and that my friend is the crux of the problem ...
although there are tons of things outside your list that are made locally - like clothes, food products, plates, cups, etc ...
the utopian solution would be that the standard of living increases in other countries to the point where their labor force makes a wage comparable to that of US workers . Nice idea but light years away probably.
But if we want to cash in the coming boom of green technologies we can't jsut be involved in the service end we have to be involved in the manufacturing end as well. How do we do this? How have other countries like Germany that have a high standard of living, continue to manufacture products?
"Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy."
- Ben Franklin
I am a man of many hats. I was an engineer while at the same time I was a freelance photographer for many newpapers and a few mags. When I was downsized in 05 in Telecom I started working fulltime as a photographer. Well lets say that well dried up pretty quick. Newpapers are cutting everyone so once I saw that market drying up I decided to get myself a job that needed to be done on a daily basis. Now I have been offered by a few Telecoms a position but I was in that industry for 12 years and I know how ficil(sp??) it can be. Do I risk the stability I have now for a bigger payout that most likely will not last as long. As far as my stocks and what not, I am not worried I don't have any real money in anything right now so I am not losing much. For me its a question of stability.
On a side note, where are you in Jersey?
www.seanbrady.net
Make the US an attractive haven for industry with a good tax system and a ready made labor force. IE. Bring trade school back into high school. Don't make Vocations seem like bad options. Liberal Arts colleges have done a great job at marketing especially with all the great lottery paid scholarship options but at the end of the day... how is an Art degree really going to get you paid? Hell I majored in Communication and Electronic Media, if I relied completely on that I'd only be making around 12 grand a year unless I was doing more with promotions and advertising but I wanted to be a broadcaster.
Perhaps the standard of living is artificially too high or rather we have simply found ways to increase profitablility that are no longer viable. Sure labor is cheap in china, but fuel costs are now leveling the playing field. The market has changed, same with groceries. In a world where energy costs are high, in season local fruits and veggies become far smarter options than prepackaged frozen dinners or foriegn foods, but the people have to learn to adjust to these changes and adapt.
Tarriffs only hurt the rest of the worlds peoples. I'd rather find ways to make companies want to invest in this country.
you make such a great point about our standard of living. it is artificially high. look at how much crap we buy that we don't need. we work our asses off to afford all the crap we use, most of which is unnecessasy stuff just make to make our convenient lives that much more convenient, to the point that it becomes inconvenient, needing two incomes jsut to get by. fuel costs and insurance rates are artificially high so that the fat cats in those industries can get richer and ricjer. and we keep goign more and more into debt to keep up, spurring the current credit crisis. i suppose it's like consumption bubble or a standard of living bubble that is going to pop and We'll have to simplify big time to get ourselves out if it.
regaerding making our country an attractive haven for businesses, which candidate do you think has the best plan to do this? I've heard Obama mention lowein the corporate tax rate but also closing tax loopholes. sounds nice but i ahven't realyl heard enough specifics from either side, although I imagine they will both be talknig about it a lot more pretty soon if fortis' prediction is correct.
"Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy."
- Ben Franklin
Remember, Jlew was calling a bottom at DOW 12,800 - 12,600.
DOW is now at 11,160. Thats about 1,500 points lower. :(
No end is in sight.
US Home Foreclosures DOUBLED AGAIN in June.
I think they doubled in Feb or March, so the is really a QUADRUPLING.
BERNANKE's dumb ass is on TV right now, testifying about how best to INTERVENE in the markets ... about what is needed, what further power is needed for the Fed to save us all.
What a big fucking joke.
:sigh:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Yeah, I saw that. It is disappointing to say the least, but not entirely surprising.
We can expect big changes in basically all areas of life these next few years.
The pride cometh before the fall.
Remember people, as the inimitable Stuart Wilde* says:
"No one cares to experience adverse circumstances, but one's emotional response to those circumstances is very much a subjective decision. Thus, there are no real crises, there are only circumstances, which of themselves when observed correctly are just energy. If you had no concept of high and low, better or worst, good or bad, you couldn't experience negative emotion or crisis. So crises are only crises when you first establish an opinion, and secondly, when you quantify or qualify your experiences."
What we're facing is the death of the ego. The death of our beliefs of what "should" be. When we can get past these ideas we fixate on. we can adapt with ease, generate energy and be front-runners of the new ways that are being ushered in as we speak.
*Stuart Wilde, "The Whispering Winds of Change", 1993.
http://www.myspace.com/illuminatta
Rhinocerous Surprise '08!!!
it's all good.
thing is, as others already mention...what to do with this information? sure, people may 'know...but then what? do i really pull all my $$$ out of the stock market at a tremendous loss on a 'what-if'.......or ride it out til things self-correct, as the cycles usually do? beyond that, most have very little control over their jobs, prices, etc. so yes...we can know and it's great to be informed....but yea, that's it?
so no, not unwanted...but sure to some degree most probably don't like to be reminded of things so out of their own control that leaves them feeling rather helpless. it's ominous and sure, rather depressing eh. sure, good idea to try and save up some cash, have a nest egg, etc. my personal nest egg is all invested, so yes...i just hope all can hold on, at least ride out the storm until needed. or, guess i'd take a big hit...that's the gamble, that's life. i sure HOPE we don't have a true depression again, i cannot even imagine...but i am an optimist at heart, so yea.....still hope things won't get THAT bad. and if they do? well we're fucked, most of us anyway, in any case. yikes.
Let's just breathe...
I am myself like you somehow
The dollar and oil are at the core of this problem. I disagree with manufacturing being a cause, or trade deficits. We can survive as a service based economy. We can't survive with miscalculated interest rates killing the dollar at a time when oil speculators are just absolutely going insane.
I received an interesting email yesterday from ALL of the major airline CEO's calling for government regulations to curb oil speculation. Very telling that these CEOs, who undoubtedly are NOT all democrats, are really pushing for some government intervention. An interesting excerpt from that email:
"Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that are known.
Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and then sell it to each other again and again. A barrel of oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers pick up the final tab. Some market experts estimate that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per barrel in unnecessary speculative costs."
I'm not so sure everyone knows how these speculators function, so let me drop this on you....
Say oil is $160/bar. Oil is traded in 1000 barrel lots, so a single lot is worth roughly $160k on the market. Would you believe that the margin on those lots is ONLY $10K?!?!?! These guys are paying less than 10% to gamble, assuming they can deal with the consequences later if this were to somehow fall. But it won't fall because it's entirely too cheap for them to line one another's pockets. A simple step by the government like requiring 50% margin on purchases would DRAMATICALLY slow speculation, imo.
If the government, which I absolutely HATE getting involved in the economy typically, were to impose small regulations on speculators as well as pumped up interest rates a point, this snowball of doom would slow dramatically.
The markets would hurt after these moves, sensing panic from the Fed, but it would pass. The dollar would strengthen as the government and Fed show that they have some balls. Inflation would slow. Food and gas prices drop. Unemployment would level out as companies face lower overhead costs associated with fuel and shipments.
Instead we'll sit here and talk about drilling for more oil, a completely pointless effort right now. The problem isn't supply, there is absolutely PLENTY of supply right now. Oil prices didn't drop a dime when Saudi agreed to increase output, what the hell is stating that ANWR will produce oil in a decade going to do for current prices? NOTHING.
Bernanke needs to go and the GOP needs to work with the dems to dissuade the oil speculators.
As a telecom guy myself, one who has been in the industry about the same amount of time as you, I think it's actually a good time to get back in. While other sectors are struggling, the internet and bandwidth demands are just absolutely BOOMING. The stocks aren't reflecting this due to the economy as a whole, but networks are running out of room. The fiber glut that killed a lot of jobs is becoming less and less. I work for a gigantic broadband wholesaler and I can tell you that we're running out of fiber in some areas. Video, VOIP, etc...it's all booming. I may be misquoting this, but AT&T made a statement a couple months ago that they expect their bandwidth demands to triple over the next 7-10 years.
so after the fees you end up with nothing
what a scam.......
banks suck
PEARL JAM~San Antonio, TX. 4~5~03
INCUBUS~Houston, TX. 1~19~07
INCUBUS~Denver, CO. 2~8~07
Lollapalooza~Chicago, IL. 8~5~07
INCUBUS~Austin, TX. 9~3~07
Bonnaroo~Manchester, TN 6~14~08
After inflation you are MISERABLY in the HOLE.
REAL Inflation for 2007-2008 is running upwards of 15%
it may be even worse
but who the fuck would know since the Fed stopped printing M3 Money Supply statistics over a year ago now.
Anway, at 15%
that means you LOST 13% on that bank account.
OUCH.
Market was down 230 points (DJIA) at the worst today,
closed out down around 130 or 160, i believe.
2 year low on the major indexes.
We are in a BAD BAD way.
They were talking today about The Fed granting DISCOUNT WINDOW TO Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
WTF?
That is a SUBSIDY of a SUBSIDY.
That is like 2nd degree ass raping.
wtf?
How do you subsidize something that is already subsidized?
Goddamn.
Fuck it.
:(
If I opened it now would you not understand?
it's about to get ugly.
Indymac?
fucking shit.
when did they announce this shit?
news story is only 2 hours old.
fucking christ.
well, hallefuckingleuja.
:(
If I opened it now would you not understand?
I get your point, but just for the record, I'll bet that just about every instrument that the guys in PJ play is American made. I know that all those Fenders, Gibsons, Gretschs, Martins that they play are DEFINITELY American made. American made guitars/basses are still preferred by most musicians around the world! But unfortunately, that's not going to help our economy that much.
~Edward
===========================
what happened to this imminent meltdown?
its imminent. duh. nice dig. does this guy make these doom and gloom threads all the time?
Well for starters,
the government placed uptick restrictions and out right "no short" rules on all the major banks.
Its hard to have a market meltdown when you cant even sell the stock.
Beyond that,
i believe, after this announcement we had a massive bail-out bill signed in private by President Boosh.
Further, TPTB manipulated the price of oil back down off its peak, removing some of the immediate short term pressures on the US market.
All that being said,
the Fortis Bank prediction said "within weeks", and July-August is only around 6-8 weeks.
I'd say that given the market is once again headed down (DOW is now 300 points from being in the 10,000 range again), the Fed is now completely neutered (can't cut rates, and WAS expected to RAISE rates shortly, to save the dollar), and the bail out has already happened ... and yet Fannie and Freddie are still widely expected to need total government recapitalization ...
i would say that prediction remains largely plausible.
Who knows what the fuck will happen.
Certainly it is ridiculous to accuse me of fearmongering, on account of my only printing here NEWS that was REPORTED by FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
I didin't post some fucking Alex Jones article, or some crazy blog site.
I posted a fucking write up about a major bank making a market prediction.
And yet, in this little sandbox, all the babies cry out that i'm scaring them with my fearmongering, simply for trying to post up links to valid news articles for discussion.
:cool:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
:rolleyes:
:rolleyes:
"within weeks" ... 6 weeks later...
la la la-la la la ... TOTAL DESTRUCTION FROM SHORE TO SHORE
If I opened it now would you not understand?
All i want is a hug and a sportsman like "Okay, so your not exactly as crazy as i thought".
Is that so much to ask?
;
What happened to this My2hands?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
hey i give you credit you where on target ...but i'm not happy with the melt down .
well god knows i'm not HAPPY about it.
This isn't about "hey DBTS was right, lets gloat over it"
this is about,
"Hey when people with half of a brain step up and repeatedly warn you 'man i kind've know what i'm talking about, man this is kind've a big deal' ... it would behoove folks to get over themselves to some extent, do some homework, and recognize that sometimes expecting the worst isn't simply reducible to derogatories like 'fearmonger' and 'tin foil hat nutter' ... and maybe try to ask themselves what it is that THEY were blocking mentally that someone else saw."
Because, once again, this is NOT about "ooh DBTS is so smart, and ooh DBTS was 'right' ..."
no, its about "what can I do as another contributing member of society to recognize the same OBVIOUS, but somewhat hidden, fundamentals that some other folks here were hip to, and how can i go forward with that information in a CONSTRUCTIVE fashion to help stop this mess from happening again."
LET ME GET THIS STRAIGHT:
The point of these daily\weekly and repetitive exercises in "fear mongering" from my end was NOT about trying to scare folks for the sake of scaring them, or to put down predictions just to gloat after the fact ... IT WAS AN ATTEMPT TO EDUCATE ... both YOU and ME ...
I learned A LOT trying to reach out to the people on this board ... the constant brick wall i was rammed up against with all the "fearmonger" and "tin foil hat nutter" responses FORCED ME TO DO MY HOMEWORK and i learned a SHIT TON because of it.
But, besides trying to force my own awareness, i was trying to force YOURS.
Look folks, i don't think people here are idiots. I wouldn't be here if i thought that.
I'm here because, like Mr. Vedder himself, i happen to think that Pearl Jam fans on the whole are at least a small notch above the average bear when it comes to consciousness, awareness, and the content of their character. I believe that truly.
THAT was what this whole thing was about, from my POV.
I DON'T feel a whole lot of personal power over this crisis, but the one thing i saw an opportunity to do here was HELP EXPLAIN IT TO OTHERS so that maybe one day THEY would also see, and a MOVEMENT could begin to FOMENT.
That has ALWAYS been my intent.
Whether i ever or at anytime did that articulately or not, is beyond my analysis (i know i got more than a few positive feed back letters via PM, but i also got a lot of muck thrown my way on AMT) ... and certainly i never claim to have held my cool at any given moment.
This is intense stuff, and from my perspective at least, with what i deem myself to be knowledgeable of, it is intensely PASSIONATE material for discussion.
What i was HOPING to achieve in this forum was to INSPIRE SOME OF THAT SAME PASSION IN OTHERS.
Because, HONESTLY folks, the ONLY way we are going to change or challenge this juggernaut is if A WHOLE LOT OF PEOPLE GET THAT SAME PASSION, AWARENESS, AND DESIRE TO MAKE REAL CHANGE.
And real change starts with REAL UNDERSTANDING, followed by REAL solutions.
And ONCE again, i will plug a movie which i feel the time has come to plug shamelessly: The Money Masters.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
no i thank you i have been clueless for yrs about economy and government so anytime i see things that give me a clue i read and take notes so thanks for that ...
thats the vibe i was getting from that "totoal meltdown" prediction... i took it as catastrophic depression? i dont think this is that bad?
Ask yourself where we would be RIGHT NOW if the government had not just all but promised the market THE LARGEST BAIL OUT IN HISTORY.
And earlier last week, before that, THE SECOND LARGEST BAIL OUT IN HISTORY. And two weeks before that? THE THIRD LARGEST BAIL OUT IN HISTORY.
Ask yourself that, brother.
Yes, this is all but one wheat penny shy of a "total financial market meltdown".
If you can't own up to that assertion, then i have lost the battle.
The market is royally fucked. The ONLY thing keeping it from crashing 1000 points a day from now until christmas is the fact that the government is prepared to throw nearly ONE TRILLION DOLLARS at it with less than a week of debate on the house floor.
Look, predictions don't figure in unquantifiable unknowns like massive government bailouts. THIS IS A MELTDOWN, plain and simple.
And lets wait another month or two and see how close we get to that "depression".
There is still PLENTY of time for more horrible things to happen, like a total unwinding of the BOND market, or the dollar (which got absolutely WHACKED today) or god forbid, more stupid stubborn banks going down before or after this bailout.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Just post an Obama is awesome thread and all will be well...
and reveling in it's loyalty. It's made by forming coalitions
over specific principles, goals, and policies.
http://i36.tinypic.com/66j31x.jpg
(\__/)
( o.O)
(")_(")
Yeah.
When the market is DOWN 400 points (nearly) AFTER the largest bailout in history is announced, we still have a MAJOR problem!
:eek:
If I opened it now would you not understand?