exit polls?

darkcrow

has anything come out yet? it might be too early i guess. i have been flicking to the 24 news channels quite often but no word... any info from your areas would be welcome

jlew24asu

are you an american living abroad? you seem awfully concerned about american elections.

darkcrow

i am english through and through. i am just extreamly interested in american politics. i am specialising in american history at university. my dissertation is an analysis on jfk's policies towards vietnam in 1963

SundaySilence

http://www.tradesports.com

redrock

jlew24asu wrote:

are you an american living abroad? you seem awfully concerned about american elections.

American or not, I think we all should be concerned about the american elections as the results have such an impact worldwide.

jlew24asu

SundaySilence wrote:

http://www.tradesports.com

that is a very cool website. I used to trade there alot during baseball season.

DPrival78

there's been quite a campaign to discredit the reliability of exit polls since the 2004 election - despite the fact that historically they have been incredibly accurate..

my opinion - its just an effort to help cover up the fraud

floyd1975

The polling places are trying their best to keep the exit polls sealed until they can get a more accurate sample. Polling late morning/early afternoon voters and releasing that is statistically inaccurate as was seen in 2004.

Solat13

You'll probably have to wait until a little after 5pm East Coast time to get any reliable exit poll info.

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116287010711115239-2iiOwDIJYaZVGAKuDwcEJYTuHD4_20061206.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top

DPrival78

zstillings wrote:

The polling places are trying their best to keep the exit polls sealed until they can get a more accurate sample. Polling late morning/early afternoon voters and releasing that is statistically inaccurate as was seen in 2004.

but in years prior, exit polls were amazingly accurate, early morning or not.

this is from 2004, talking about the GOP push to end exit polls:
http://www.buzzflash.com/analysis/04/11/ana04027.html

there was an 8 million vote discrepency between the exit poll data and the actual counted votes in the 2004 election. this was unprecedented. but according to mainstream media, its the exit polling that suddenly became flawed, as opposed to any possible voter fraud. yet, when it came to the ukrainian election in 04, exit polls were used as proof that their election had been rigged. ?...

read more here if you're interested:
http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/1970/

floyd1975

DPrival78 wrote:

but in years prior, exit polls were amazingly accurate, early morning or not.

this is from 2004, talking about the GOP push to end exit polls:
http://www.buzzflash.com/analysis/04/11/ana04027.html

there was an 8 million vote discrepency between the exit poll data and the actual counted votes in the 2004 election. this was unprecedented. but according to mainstream media, its the exit polling that suddenly became flawed, as opposed to any possible voter fraud. yet, when it came to the ukrainian election in 04, exit polls were used as proof that their election had been rigged. ?...

read more here if you're interested:
http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/1970/

Do you often believe that a poll that only takes a tenth of the needed sample is correct?

DPrival78

zstillings wrote:

Do you often believe that a poll that only takes a tenth of the needed sample is correct?

in the case of exit polls, due to their history of amazing accuracy, yes.

floyd1975

DPrival78 wrote:

in the case of exit polls, due to their history of amazing accuracy, yes.

So there has never been an exit poll that was wrong? President Dewey was a great one, wasn't he?

Pearl Jam and toast

zstillings wrote:

So there has never been an exit poll that was wrong? President Dewey was a great one, wasn't he?

Generally the exit polls have been accurate. It's not 100% which is why it's just a poll to satisfy people who're interested until the counted results come out.

Christ you're being agressive today.

DOSW

zstillings wrote:

Do you often believe that a poll that only takes a tenth of the needed sample is correct?

As long as it's a representative sample, then it should be fine, considering the 'needed sample' is every voter in the United States.

floyd1975

DOSW wrote:

As long as it's a representative sample, then it should be fine, considering the 'needed sample' is every voter in the United States.

I was talking about a sample for statistical accuracy. The fallacy of exit polls are that they don't always take into account precinct demographics, turnout weighting within precinct, voter intimidation at the exit polling locations (as what happened to me the one time I was polled), etc...

floyd1975

Pearl Jam and toast wrote:

Generally the exit polls have been accurate. It's not 100% which is why it's just a poll to satisfy people who're interested until the counted results come out.

Christ you're being agressive today.

That is what they are good for. Using the exit polls as indisputable evidence of election fraud though is ridiculous. The articles posted earlier used the term "statistical impossibility" which is also a ridiculous term.

Pearl Jam and toast

zstillings wrote:

That is what they are good for. Using the exit polls as indisputable evidence of election fraud though is ridiculous. The articles posted earlier used the term "statistical impossibility" which is also a ridiculous term.

I agree.

DPrival78

zstillings wrote:

That is what they are good for. Using the exit polls as indisputable evidence of election fraud though is ridiculous. The articles posted earlier used the term "statistical impossibility" which is also a ridiculous term.

i don't think exit polls can be used as indisputable evidence necessarily, but they are an indicator that something may be up. but rather than look into the dozens and dozens of irregularities with all of these e-voting machines, or the questionable disenfranchisement of large numbers of people, media types and gop reps just say the exit polls aren't reliable anymore.

and again, they were reliable enough to trigger an investigation in the ukraine. why not here?

Pearl Jam and toast

DPrival78 wrote:

i don't think exit polls can be used as indisputable evidence necessarily, but they are an indicator that something may be up. but rather than look into the dozens and dozens of irregularities with all of these e-voting machines, or the questionable disenfranchisement of large numbers of people, media types and gop reps just say the exit polls aren't reliable anymore.

and again, they were reliable enough to trigger an investigation in the ukraine. why not here?

They aren't reliable. The Ukraine fucked up. Polls are flawed fundamentally because you don't nessecarily get an accurate sample (even if it's done randomly) and because people can lie or choose not to tell you. It's unreliable in it's essence.

p.s. That's why on credible news reports they say "In a poll today.." and don't just give the poll's results as fact.

floyd1975

DPrival78 wrote:

and again, they were reliable enough to trigger an investigation in the ukraine. why not here?

Honestly, I don't know. I wouldn't have used them there either if they were only looking at a couple of percent and had not taken them throughout the course of the day and had ignored precinct turnout/demographics....

Heatherj43

Exit polls on the past had been amazingly accurate. Now I cannot trust them. In 2000 and 2004 I went to bed thinking things went one way and they did not. Shocked!!

So I am on here and will wait to hear the real results later.

DPrival78

Heatherj43 wrote:

Exit polls on the past had been amazingly accurate. Now I cannot trust them. In 2000 and 2004 I went to bed thinking things went one way and they did not. Shocked!!

So I am on here and will wait to hear the real results later.

that's where you and i differ.. i don't think it was the exit polls that were off, but rather the actual votes counted that were skewed.

for example, in 04 when you have multiple districts in florida where 70-80% of registered voters are democrats, and exit polls depicting the expected kerry win, but bush ends up getting 70% of the vote.. something's fishy.

what makes it even more fishy, is the fact that these types of discrepencies occured in districts using e-voting machines. in other districts where paper ballots were used, and where the dem to rep ratio was the same as above, the exit polls and final vote tallies were for kerry as expected.

Heatherj43

DPrival78 wrote:

that's where you and i differ.. i don't think it was the exit polls that were off, but rather the actual votes counted that were skewed.

for example, in 04 when you have multiple districts in florida where 70-80% of registered voters are democrats, and exit polls depicting the expected kerry win, but bush ends up getting 70% of the vote.. something's fishy.

what makes it even more fishy, is the fact that these types of discrepencies occured in districts using e-voting machines. in other districts where paper ballots were used, and where the dem to rep ratio was the same as above, the exit polls and final vote tallies were for kerry as expected.

Oh...we don't differ, that was kinda my point.
Exit polls have been very accurate in the past and they are trying to sell us that they weren't those times.
I do think they were accurate too and that things went very fishy. I was shocked in the morn both times.