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unsungunsung I stopped by on March 7 2024. First time in many years, had to update payment info. Hope all is well. Politicians suck. Bye. Posts: 9,487
edited May 2008 in A Moving Train
I was listening to news radio last night on the way home from work and this energy analyst was talking about the rising price of fuel. He stated that he expects oil to be $200 a barrel by the end of the year. He also stated that by the end of 2010, early 2011 he expects regular unleaded to be $15-18 a gallon! :eek:

That is insane.

Ok so while I'm not much of a conspiracy guy it still got me thinking "what if?" What is OPEC and some of these not-so-friendly-to-America nations were getting together and devising a way to cripple our economy and shut us down through the high price of fuel?

Is that insane?

I don't think so. Remember we never expected to lose two huge buildings in NY. I'm confident enough to know that there is not a middle east country that I trust. The last time I checked oil was not nearing the end of its' supply tomorrow, although I concede it has to be getting to the point where it is starting to find quality crude as easily.

It may be time to watch what you spend your money on, is it really needed? I think we might be in some trouble here, imagine a $200+ fill up. And that is fuel alone what else would go up? $30 for a quart of synthetic oil? $5 for a bottle of Coke? The costs of plastic would rise as well.
Post edited by Unknown User on

Comments

  • farfromglorifiedfarfromglorified Posts: 5,696
    LOL....

    This issues has gotten completely out of hand. Chill out people. Yes, oil and gas is expensive. It is expensive because you've created an environment where supply has not been able to keep up with demand. Want lower prices? Then get out of the way of the supply. If you're not willing to do that, however, then stop bitching.

    Nationalizing oil companies will not create more supply or limit demand. Setting prices will not create more supply and will increase demand. Eliminating gas taxes will not create more supply and will increase demand. Drilling for oil, however, will increase supply.
  • mammasanmammasan Posts: 5,656
    unsung wrote:
    I was listening to news radio last night on the way home from work and this energy analyst was talking about the rising price of fuel. He stated that he expects oil to be $200 a barrel by the end of the year. He also stated that by the end of 2010, early 2011 he expects regular unleaded to be $15-18 a gallon! :eek:

    That is insane.

    Ok so while I'm not much of a conspiracy guy it still got me thinking "what if?" What is OPEC and some of these not-so-friendly-to-America nations were getting together and devising a way to cripple our economy and shut us down through the high price of fuel?

    Is that insane?

    I don't think so. Remember we never expected to lose two huge buildings in NY. I'm confident enough to know that there is not a middle east country that I trust. The last time I checked oil was not nearing the end of its' supply tomorrow, although I concede it has to be getting to the point where it is starting to find quality crude as easily.

    It may be time to watch what you spend your money on, is it really needed? I think we might be in some trouble here, imagine a $200+ fill up. And that is fuel alone what else would go up? $30 for a quart of synthetic oil? $5 for a bottle of Coke? The costs of plastic would rise as well.

    If this where the case they would be hurting themselves. The US is the largest consumer of oil. If we all of a sudden could not afford to consume oil at the current level OPEC nations would start to loose revenue. The price is so high because of supply & demand and speculators. The days of cheep gas are over and we had better start getting used to it because there does not seem to be an alternative any where on the horizon.
    "When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Ron Paul
  • puremagicpuremagic Posts: 1,907
    farfromglorified wrote:
    LOL....

    Drilling for oil, however, will increase supply.

    That is what this is all about? The oil companies want Congress to lift the restrictions on off-shore drilling. They want to be able to drill along the east coast border from Maryland to southern Florida and some locations within the panhandle of Flordia. They want to be able to drill along the west coast border from northern California to southern California. Of course, they want Alaska opened.

    No one hears Cheney or Bush crying over the price of a "barrel" of oil because that is profit for them. That $4 at the pump, oil company profits. All this to force the States and Congress to allow off shore drilling.
    SIN EATERS--We take the moral excrement we find in this equation and we bury it down deep inside of us so that the rest of our case can stay pure. That is the job. We are morally indefensible and absolutely necessary.
  • jbalicki10jbalicki10 Posts: 517
    Why are people thinking that the price of oil is due to supply & demand entirely?

    It's not, check the speculation and future markets. Oil is a hot stock now and everyone wants to make a quick buck. This is driving prices even higher because of the speculators. There will be a big bust, just like in real estate, dot coms etc... just watch.

    There is enough oil for everyone but there is alot more things happening under the sheets than you think.
  • farfromglorifiedfarfromglorified Posts: 5,696
    puremagic wrote:
    That is what this is all about? The oil companies want Congress to lift the restrictions on off-shore drilling. They want to be able to drill along the east coast border from Maryland to southern Florida and some locations within the panhandle of Flordia. They want to be able to drill along the west coast border from northern California to southern California. Of course, they want Alaska opened.

    No one hears Cheney or Bush crying over the price of a "barrel" of oil because that is profit for them. That $4 at the pump, oil company profits. All this to force the States and Congress to allow off shore drilling.

    The price of oil is not $135 just to "force the States and Congress to allow off shore drilling". Oil companies do not set the price of oil. The price of oil is $135/ barrel in part because the States and Congress banned off shore drilling.

    If you don't want the supply of oil to increase, that's fine. Just don't complain about the high cost of oil in response to your actions.
  • farfromglorifiedfarfromglorified Posts: 5,696
    jbalicki10 wrote:
    Why are people thinking that the price of oil is due to supply & demand entirely?

    It's not, check the speculation and future markets. Oil is a hot stock now and everyone wants to make a quick buck. This is driving prices even higher because of the speculators. There will be a big bust, just like in real estate, dot coms etc... just watch.

    There is enough oil for everyone but there is alot more things happening under the sheets than you think.

    Ummm....speculators' actions within the oil market are not somehow separate from "supply and demand". They're part of the demand.

    I do agree with you that there is a bubble here -- eventually the price of oil will go down. But in order to do so, something has to happen to burst that bubble and that something will likely have to be increased production from somewhere.
  • jbalicki10jbalicki10 Posts: 517
    farfromglorified wrote:
    Ummm....speculators' actions within the oil market are not somehow separate from "supply and demand". They're part of the demand.

    I do agree with you that there is a bubble here -- eventually the price of oil will go down. But in order to do so, something has to happen to burst that bubble and that something will likely have to be increased production from somewhere.

    I try to keep consumers and speculators seperated. The oil is there and there is no shortage. It's just people buying it to hold and sell at a higher profit. IF there was a HUGE demand, gas stations would be dry like in the late 70s. But that's not happening.

    I do agree I should be factoring speculators as demand, but to me it's creating an artifical demand. I suspect that it you take away all the speculation market right now, a barrel of oil is only worth 75 bucks right now, if that.
  • farfromglorifiedfarfromglorified Posts: 5,696
    jbalicki10 wrote:
    I try to keep consumers and speculators seperated.

    That's pretty silly, since speculators are consumers -- just a specific type. Would you keep plastics manufacturers and gas refiners separated as well???
    The oil is there and there is no shortage.

    Absolutely.
    It's just people buying it to hold and sell at a higher profit.

    A very small part of the market does that, yes. However, they only can do that when dominant price pressures are pushing the price of oil up and up and up. The speculators here are simply following the price, not controlling teh supply.
    IF there was a HUGE demand, gas stations would be dry like in the late 70s. But that's not happening.

    The reason gas stations went dry in the 70s was not because of an actual shortage of oil. Gas stations went dry because the government stupidly set the price of gas and the refiners stopped working because they would have been losing money on every gallon of gas they produced.
    I do agree I should be factoring speculators as demand, but to me it's creating an artifical demand.

    There's nothing "artificial" about it.
    I suspect that it you take away all the speculation market right now, a barrel of oil is only worth 75 bucks right now, if that.

    Do you have any math to support that, or are you simply inventing a number?
  • ZanneZanne Posts: 899
    Come and listen to a story about a man named Jed
    A poor mountaineer, barely kept his family fed,
    Then one day he was shootin at some food,
    And up through the ground came a bubblin' crude.

    Oil that is, black gold, Texas tea.

    Well the first thing you know ol' Jed's a millionaire,
    Kinfolk said Jed move away from there
    Said Californy is the place you ought to be
    So they loaded up the truck and moved to Beverly.

    Hills, that is.
    Swimmin pools, movie stars.
    Just me
  • jbalicki10jbalicki10 Posts: 517
    farfromglorified wrote:
    That's pretty silly, since speculators are consumers -- just a specific type. Would you keep plastics manufacturers and gas refiners separated as well???

    Absolutely.
    A very small part of the market does that, yes. However, they only can do that when dominant price pressures are pushing the price of oil up and up and up. The speculators here are simply following the price, not controlling teh supply.

    The reason gas stations went dry in the 70s was not because of an actual shortage of oil. Gas stations went dry because the government stupidly set the price of gas and the refiners stopped working because they would have been losing money on every gallon of gas they produced.

    There's nothing "artificial" about it.

    Do you have any math to support that, or are you simply inventing a number?

    I keep speculators and demand seperate. I agree that it's not suppose to be but that's just how I work. The best scenario I can give you is this:
    A) PJ creates a poster
    B) Demand is from Poster Flippers, Hardcore Poster Fans, and the Casual Fan.
    C) The Poster Flippers and Hardcore Poster Fans drives the price up. While the casual fan just buys it at the low prices. There are alot more Casual Fans who buy the poster.
    D) The Poster will reach a peak price with the hardcore / flippers. Once that happens the hardcore fans who wanted the poster will already have it. The price will tumble down.
    E) Once the price tumbles down, that will be the going rate for the poster. All those high prices do not match the true demand for the posters.

    So basically Buy Low, Sell High. If your in oil, sell now. Speculation now is at an all time high. The media is playing this up. Time to make your money. I really look at the average person to find the long term value. I really don't short things.

    Anyways, I agree with you on the gas being regulated in the 70s. Gas stations didnt want to buy gas to lose money and they dried up.

    Sorry about my spelling. I need a dictionary.

    Oh yeah, it was 70 dollars last year at this time for oil. I just added 5 bucks for inflation for fun.
  • acutejamacutejam Posts: 1,433
    Oil execs at the Senate Hearings yesterday said:

    ... the cost of producing a barrel of oil should be $55 to $65, if it weren't for a weak dollar, geopolitical concerns about supply disruptions and market speculation.

    So yer a bit High!

    Oil companies are running on 9.5% profit margins. The average for the S&P 500 is 8.5%. So yes, energy companies are more profitable than many others...but not by an inordinate amount (and most of our mutual funds are all soaking in them). Googles' profit margin was 25% -- uproar? How much are their ad rates inflating all our products? How much does Google success cost you? No clue, huh...

    The typical big city driver see's the price of gasoline about 100 times a day. No other product or commodity comes anywhere close to that kind of exposure or scrutiny.

    Hard to hear about 9% profit margins on billions in profit, but those came from many more billions investing and operating. It's kinda hard and expensive to pull oil out of 4,000 ft of water and 20,000 ft of rock, move it a 1000 miles, refine it, move it another 100 miles, etc etc - and typically takes about 10 years from first idea, to first drop, and a few billion.

    And the oil industry is creating a ton of jobs right now and wages were up like 8% in the sector vs 4% overall.

    Exxon, BP, Shell, Chevron, Total, etc are all just a drop in the bucket next to Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, and NIOC/Iran -- there's 14 national companies (ie Saudi Aramco) with more oil before you get to our biggest, Exxon.

    I couldn't even respond to the "take over the oil companies" thread -- hehehe, you want Saudi Aramco to have the complete monopoly?
    [sic] happens
  • Pacomc79Pacomc79 Posts: 9,404
    That hearing was simply pandering to the pissed off masses instead of doing anything productive like finding a solution to the problem.
    My Girlfriend said to me..."How many guitars do you need?" and I replied...."How many pairs of shoes do you need?" She got really quiet.
  • polarispolaris Posts: 3,527
    As opposed to current biofuels that make absolutely no sense - algae is the best solution we have to climate change and food crops as of right now ... we wouldn't have to invest in infrastructure either as this biodiesel could be fed into existing gas pumps ...

    http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/05/algae-biodiesel-biofuels-green-star-micronutrients.php
  • chopitdownchopitdown Posts: 2,222
    is it safe to assume that the oil prices have to do with supply and demand the devalue of the american dollar? I think we should blame our government who keeps printing more money to pay for more things we don't have the money for. The government is the one who is making us pay more of our money for oil b/c they keep printing money and devaluing the money in circulation. The more the government spends and prints to make up the shortfalls the less our dollar is worth. The reason counterfeitting is illegal is b/c it devalues the money in circulation and it has no backing of any sort. While the oil companies are making money; the market is now being taxed more than it was and our dollar is worth less and less. So perhaps our anger should be placed at a different level; the govt.
    The dog and pony show with the oil execs will do nothing until our govt realizes it just can't do whatever it wants by printing money and expect no consequences of it's actions. The decisions aren't going to be easy but perhaps we do need to get back to the JFK statement of ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country...that would be put responsible people in charge who are willing to make the appropriate difficult decisions and do what is best for the people they serve.
    make sure the fortune that you seek...is the fortune that you need
  • Flannel ShirtFlannel Shirt Posts: 1,021
    acutejam wrote:
    Oil execs at the Senate Hearings yesterday said:

    ... the cost of producing a barrel of oil should be $55 to $65, if it weren't for a weak dollar, geopolitical concerns about supply disruptions and market speculation.

    So yer a bit High!

    Oil companies are running on 9.5% profit margins. The average for the S&P 500 is 8.5%. So yes, energy companies are more profitable than many others...but not by an inordinate amount (and most of our mutual funds are all soaking in them). Googles' profit margin was 25% -- uproar? How much are their ad rates inflating all our products? How much does Google success cost you? No clue, huh...

    The typical big city driver see's the price of gasoline about 100 times a day. No other product or commodity comes anywhere close to that kind of exposure or scrutiny.

    Hard to hear about 9% profit margins on billions in profit, but those came from many more billions investing and operating. It's kinda hard and expensive to pull oil out of 4,000 ft of water and 20,000 ft of rock, move it a 1000 miles, refine it, move it another 100 miles, etc etc - and typically takes about 10 years from first idea, to first drop, and a few billion.

    And the oil industry is creating a ton of jobs right now and wages were up like 8% in the sector vs 4% overall.

    Exxon, BP, Shell, Chevron, Total, etc are all just a drop in the bucket next to Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, and NIOC/Iran -- there's 14 national companies (ie Saudi Aramco) with more oil before you get to our biggest, Exxon.

    I couldn't even respond to the "take over the oil companies" thread -- hehehe, you want Saudi Aramco to have the complete monopoly?

    thanks for not responding to my take control of the oil companies thread. :)
    Maybe I should start a new one...take over Saudia Arabia thread. :)
    And yes, I understand they are both ridiculous.

    I need gas and oil to provide heat, hot water, and transportation for my family. I need gas to get to fucking work. I dont need all the bullshit that is advertised on Google. I dont need fancy watches, I dont need to find movie tieckets, I dont need shit from Staples, I dont need to enroll at the university of phoenix, I dont need a fucking mercedes, and I dont need to check my credit report for free. I dont need fucking Google.

    I need oil. The reason people get upset over the price is because its something people NEED.
    All that's sacred, comes from youth....dedications, naive and true.
  • Pacomc79Pacomc79 Posts: 9,404
    Flannel Shirt wrote:
    thanks for not responding to my take control of the oil companies thread. :)
    Maybe I should start a new one...take over Saudia Arabia thread. :)
    And yes, I understand they are both ridiculous.

    I need gas and oil to provide heat, hot water, and transportation for my family. I need gas to get to fucking work. I dont need all the bullshit that is advertised on Google. I dont need fancy watches, I dont need to find movie tieckets, I dont need shit from Staples, I dont need to enroll at the university of phoenix, I dont need a fucking mercedes, and I dont need to check my credit report for free. I dont need fucking Google.

    I need oil. The reason people get upset over the price is because its something people NEED.


    Look into natural gas heat, I know there have been some harvesting facilities built off the coast of New York so perhaps if they are up and running it will be cheaper to get Natural Gas, and that should help you out a bit with your heat.

    Electric might be even cheaper if you are running a dual unit like a heat pump.
    My Girlfriend said to me..."How many guitars do you need?" and I replied...."How many pairs of shoes do you need?" She got really quiet.
  • Flannel ShirtFlannel Shirt Posts: 1,021
    Pacomc79 wrote:
    Look into natural gas heat, I know there have been some harvesting facilities built off the coast of New York so perhaps if they are up and running it will be cheaper to get Natural Gas, and that should help you out a bit with your heat.
    already looking into it. thanks. I am considering buying a wood or pellet stove for the winter, and using electric to get the warming "started".

    I have a gas heat stove in the house, and I use it to get the house warmed up a bit before throwing the oil on, but it doesnt crank heat like I thought it would. my parents had a wood stove and that thing CRANKED heat. heated the entire house.

    I would ride my bike to work to save on gas as well, but I live 40 miles from my job. That would be a pretty rough ride.
    All that's sacred, comes from youth....dedications, naive and true.
  • Pacomc79Pacomc79 Posts: 9,404
    Flannel Shirt wrote:
    already looking into it. thanks. I am considering buying a wood or pellet stove for the winter, and using electric to get the warming "started".

    I have a gas heat stove in the house, and I use it to get the house warmed up a bit before throwing the oil on, but it doesnt crank heat like I thought it would. my parents had a wood stove and that thing CRANKED heat. heated the entire house.

    I would ride my bike to work to save on gas as well, but I live 40 miles from my job. That would be a pretty rough ride.


    Yeah I currently don't have a house just a tiny apartment and the people below me crank the heat so I generally leave mine off but yeah the wood pellet Idea is interesting to me too if I had a house. Wood stove heat is awesome but getting up all night to tend it isn't. Something about a wood stove just makes you feel warm inside.

    I'm seriously considering a motorcycle.
    My Girlfriend said to me..."How many guitars do you need?" and I replied...."How many pairs of shoes do you need?" She got really quiet.
  • polarispolaris Posts: 3,527
    Pacomc79 wrote:
    Yeah I currently don't have a house just a tiny apartment and the people below me crank the heat so I generally leave mine off but yeah the wood pellet Idea is interesting to me too if I had a house. Wood stove heat is awesome but getting up all night to tend it isn't. Something about a wood stove just makes you feel warm inside.

    I'm seriously considering a motorcycle.

    wood stoves are inherently inefficient - masonary stoves on the other hand would work assuming house is properly insulated and there was enuf "mass" to retain the heat ...

    get a vespa!
  • Pacomc79Pacomc79 Posts: 9,404
    polaris wrote:
    wood stoves are inherently inefficient - masonary stoves on the other hand would work assuming house is properly insulated and there was enuf "mass" to retain the heat ...

    get a vespa!



    yeah I know and most of the times I've experienced them have been in very inefficient buildings (though one actually heated 3 floors effectively) I just love cast iron stoves.

    I actually think with road tires, My bike commute wouldn't be bad at all. I'm going to try it out this weekend on off road tires.

    How expensive are the vespas?
    My Girlfriend said to me..."How many guitars do you need?" and I replied...."How many pairs of shoes do you need?" She got really quiet.
  • polarispolaris Posts: 3,527
    Pacomc79 wrote:
    yeah I know and most of the times I've experienced them have been in very inefficient buildings (though one actually heated 3 floors effectively) I just love cast iron stoves.

    I actually think with road tires, My bike commute wouldn't be bad at all. I'm going to try it out this weekend on off road tires.

    How expensive are the vespas?

    i ride for like 7 mths up here and i live in toronto (bicyle that is) - lots of freedom and you'll find when you get home at nite - you'll be relaxed ...

    i don't own a vespa but from what i remember - they aren't too cheap ...

    here is a link

    http://www.vespausa.com/
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