Home› A Moving Train

Oil peaked in 2006. Production will fall 7% a year study finds.

mammasanmammasan Posts: 5,656
edited October 2007 in A Moving Train
http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html
"When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Ron Paul
Post edited by Unknown User on

Comments

  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    "The group says official industry estimates put global reserves at about 1.255 gigabarrels - equivalent to 42 years' supply at current consumption rates. But it thinks the figure is only about two thirds of that."

    42 years (or less) is not a long time


    WTF world. lets find an alternative.
  • LikeAnOceanLikeAnOcean Posts: 7,718
    Unfortunately people would rather bomb Iran than have to ride a bike to work.
  • even flow?even flow? Posts: 8,066
    LikeAnOcean wrote:
    Unfortunately people would rather bomb Iran than have to ride a bike to work.


    You need oil to run the freighters to get the bikes that are made in China over here anyhow. May as well drive a car. ;)

    Not to knock this read but haven't we been hearing the end of peak oil for at least 20 years or so.


    Edit: For those of us old enough to have seen the gas stations locked up in the 70's, that may have been a time for North America's best and brightest to have started on some other substance or other to combat the need for oil. But the greedy know they have a monopoly on it and will bomb and kill whoever to make sure that stays the status quo.
    You've changed your place in this world!
  • LikeAnOceanLikeAnOcean Posts: 7,718
    even flow? wrote:
    Not to knock this read but haven't we been hearing the end of peak oil for at least 20 years or so.
    Maybe it did already peak along time ago. I paid 89 cents for gas in 1998. It's 3 something now. How does that make sense?
  • LikeAnOpeningBandForTheSunLikeAnOpeningBandForTheSun Posts: 6,097
    LikeAnOcean wrote:
    Unfortunately people would rather bomb Iran than have to ride a bike to work.

    heh most of the small towns and cities here in the south were not built to be bike friendly (lack of sidewalks, urban sprawl). Its a real pain in the ass. A car is a neccessity unfortunately.
  • LikeAnOceanLikeAnOcean Posts: 7,718
    MrSmith wrote:
    heh most of the small towns and cities here in the south were not built to be bike friendly (lack of sidewalks, urban sprawl). Its a real pain in the ass. A car is a neccessity unfortunately.
    I guess you've never gone off road mountain biking through the woods. :p
  • Drowned OutDrowned Out Posts: 6,056
    jlew24asu wrote:
    "The group says official industry estimates put global reserves at about 1.255 gigabarrels - equivalent to 42 years' supply at current consumption rates. But it thinks the figure is only about two thirds of that."

    42 years (or less) is not a long time


    WTF world. lets find an alternative.

    two thirds of 42 years is much less time (28 years)....and that is assuming that consumption doesn't go up...I can't say for sure, but I'm seriously doubting that China and India's consumption have peaked...not to mention any other developing country. If it IS 2/3 that figure, and demand DOES go up...that puts us closer to what, 20-25 years? yikes.
  • Drowned OutDrowned Out Posts: 6,056
    even flow? wrote:
    Not to knock this read but haven't we been hearing the end of peak oil for at least 20 years or so..
    true...could it be fear mongering by those damn Bildebergers, scrambling to make the $100/barrel they promised by 2008? ;)
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    Drowned Out wrote:
    two thirds of 42 years is much less time (28 years)....and that is assuming that consumption doesn't go up...I can't say for sure, but I'm seriously doubting that China and India's consumption have peaked...not to mention any other developing country. If it IS 2/3 that figure, and demand DOES go up...that puts us closer to what, 20-25 years? yikes.

    which is why I said (or less ;) ) who knows, more oil might be discovered. its a big earth.
  • macgyver06macgyver06 Posts: 2,500
    mammasan wrote:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html

    if production falls 7% a year..technically we will have oil forever :)
  • mammasanmammasan Posts: 5,656
    macgyver06 wrote:
    if production falls 7% a year..technically we will have oil forever :)

    Not necessarily. If oil production starts declining 7% ever year that doesn't mean that the demand will decrease as well. Demand is on the rise and as someone mentioned the economies of countries like India and China have not even peaked yet so their oil consumption will continue to rise at an incredible rate. At current consumption rates, the study finds that our oil reserve will only last about 42 years.
    "When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Ron Paul
  • macgyver06macgyver06 Posts: 2,500
    mammasan wrote:
    Not necessarily. If oil production starts declining 7% ever year that doesn't mean that the demand will decrease as well. Demand is on the rise and as someone mentioned the economies of countries like India and China have not even peaked yet so their oil consumption will continue to rise at an incredible rate. At current consumption rates, the study finds that our oil reserve will only last about 42 years.


    ya i got it..i was joking..
  • Drowned OutDrowned Out Posts: 6,056
    jlew24asu wrote:
    which is why I said (or less ;) ) who knows, more oil might be discovered. its a big earth.
    I hear there is a lot up at the north pole if we could just get that damn ice to melt so that we can prove up the supplies.
    Then we get to fight over who has the rights to it....
  • RolandTD20KdrummerRolandTD20Kdrummer Posts: 13,066
    I think the pentagon will start boiling down the Muslim people themselves to extract oil eventually.
    Progress is not made by everyone joining some new fad,
    and reveling in it's loyalty. It's made by forming coalitions
    over specific principles, goals, and policies.

    http://i36.tinypic.com/66j31x.jpg

    (\__/)
    ( o.O)
    (")_(")
  • South of SeattleSouth of Seattle West Seattle Posts: 10,724
    LikeAnOcean wrote:
    Maybe it did already peak along time ago. I paid 89 cents for gas in 1998. It's 3 something now. How does that make sense?

    I remember those days. When a $20 would easily fill up your tank. Now I shell out $45 :(
    NERDS!
  • Drowned OutDrowned Out Posts: 6,056
    South of Seattle wrote:
    I remember those days. When a $20 would easily fill up your tank. Now I shell out $45 :(
    HA! I've paid $100 + to fill up....
    Right now, my 60L tank costs me close to $60...and you can't even say, "ya but those are canadian dollars" anymore ;)
  • South of SeattleSouth of Seattle West Seattle Posts: 10,724
    Drowned Out wrote:
    HA! I've paid $100 + to fill up....
    Right now, my 60L tank costs me close to $60...and you can't even say, "ya but those are canadian dollars" anymore ;)

    Yeah the whole Liter thing confused me in Canada ;)

    Drive a big truck or something?
    NERDS!
  • Drowned OutDrowned Out Posts: 6,056
    nah, just a typical midsize kid-hauler :(....I am getting a more efficient vehicle next month tho.

    1 gallon [US, liquid] = 3.785 litres
    60L = about 16 gallons.
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    LikeAnOcean wrote:
    Maybe it did already peak along time ago. I paid 89 cents for gas in 1998. It's 3 something now. How does that make sense?

    2 reasons. OPEC and china. OPEC controls supply. once demand starting rising (since 98) because of china's economic/industrial boom, prices went up. OPEC noticed the world was able to afford 30 dollars a barrel, then 40.....50....60....70....80 now 90. even at these high prices the world is able to sustain growth. if the world ecconmy started to fall into recession (based on high oil prices) the greedy assholes at opec would increase supply.
  • LikeAnOpeningBandForTheSunLikeAnOpeningBandForTheSun Posts: 6,097
    well the rumor is that Saudi Arabia has fucked up its largest oil field by drilling it wrong and now couldnt increase demand if it wanted to.

    we're running out.
  • South of SeattleSouth of Seattle West Seattle Posts: 10,724
    Drowned Out wrote:
    nah, just a typical midsize kid-hauler :(....I am getting a more efficient vehicle next month tho.

    1 gallon [US, liquid] = 3.785 litres
    60L = about 16 gallons.

    Ouch 16 gallons for $100

    Maybe I don't want to live in BC after all :)

    my $45 is for about 13 to 14 gallons. In my little Sedan.
    NERDS!
  • Drowned OutDrowned Out Posts: 6,056
    South of Seattle wrote:
    Ouch 16 gallons for $100

    Maybe I don't want to live in BC after all :)

    my $45 is for about 13 to 14 gallons. In my little Sedan.

    sorry, the $100+ was in a vehicle with a 100L tank...but it did get significantly over $100...up to like $115...I've paid up to $70 for this tank.
  • jlew24asujlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    MrSmith wrote:
    well the rumor is that Saudi Arabia has fucked up its largest oil field by drilling it wrong and now couldnt increase demand if it wanted to.

    we're running out.

    seriously, true story?


    but even if they "drilled it wrong" cant they just re-drill it right?
  • DriftingByTheStormDriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    even flow? wrote:
    Not to knock this read but haven't we been hearing the end of peak oil for at least 20 years or so.

    The United States DID reach peak oil in 1970 ... the EXACT year Dr. Hubbert predicted we would hit the 50% mark (peak oil).

    The only reason the people were fooled (or "tricked") was because when we hit peak oil (for DOMESTIC production -- the oil under OUR land), we were at odds with the OPEC regime and therefore Americans actually FELT that peak.

    In otherwords, since we weren't getting much foreign oil, and our oil production was no longer going UP, we felt the peak oil.

    BUT THEN 2 years later, Alaska came on line ... that doesn't mean there was suddenly more oil under us, it just ment we stuck another straw into the half empty soda can ...

    the fact that we found "another straw" to suck from (and the resuming of trade with OPEC) made Americans totaly forget that we had indeed hit the 50% mark on our oil soda can ...

    but the world will soon wake up again!

    :(
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • LikeAnOpeningBandForTheSunLikeAnOpeningBandForTheSun Posts: 6,097
    jlew24asu wrote:
    seriously, true story?


    but even if they "drilled it wrong" cant they just re-drill it right?

    probably not in a cost effective way if its true

    from wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves):
    The challenge is that the Ghawar field (Saudi Arabia), found in 1948, has produced about half its total reserves, and is starting to run into production problems — notably, there are rumors that it is now producing more water than oil.

    In addition to his belief that the Saudi fields have hit their peak, Simmons also argues that the Saudis may have irretrievably damaged their large oil fields by overpumping salt water into the fields in an effort to maintain the fields' pressure and thus make the oil easier to extract. Simmons interpretation of normal oilfield practice into a future crisis has been refuted by reservoir engineers at CERI.

    My dad was a driller on an oil rig for about 25 years and tried to explain the whole drilling thing to me, but its way over my head (a lot of chemistry and pressure stuff). I do know its not as easy as just sticking a pipe in there and sucking out the oil. You have to pump stuff back into it to maintain pressure.

    thought this was interesting too.
    Since 1982 the Saudis have withheld their well data and any detailed data on their reserves, giving outside experts no way to verify the overall size of Saudi reserves and output. However, experts question the Saudi claim that recent declines in production are due to lack of demand (which no other producer has experienced), and pointed to the fact that the number of drilling rigs in Saudi Arabia has tripled with no comparable increase in production as similar to what happened in Texas when US production peaked and started to decline in the 1970s. This could mean that many Saudi oil wells have peaked and have begun the decline toward the end of their economic usefulness.
Sign In or Register to comment.