If the US left Iraq today, what would happen?

ArmsinaV

I don't mean this as a baiting question, just an honest inquiry into what anyone thinks would happen. And I mean practically and specifically, what would be the probable next step(s) for the country and region.

Obviously, it would depend on how that came about, but I'm asking people who think the US should leave - which I tend to agree with - what should happen next and how.....

mammasan

Well there are several possibilities. For one the country could descend into total chaos, civil war between the Shi'ites and Sunnis could erupt. Or maybe the country could go through a bit more turmoil, nothing worse than what we see now, and come out of it.

Pacomc79

honestly. I have no idea. It could be 1000 times worse and destabilize the whole region or It could be not as bad as anyone thinks.

One thing I know that will be a problem if the US pulls out is the lack of good infrastructure. Water, Electric, Sewage etc. But that is a problem now and it's not a quick fix.

Also to make money the country will need to protect it's oil pipelines, I'm not sure how they will do that, I also don't know what will happen with the government.

Generally the basic problem will be that even though the country has wealthy oil resources, whomever takes power will still need to use that money to build or rebuild the countries infrastructure. That almost never happens in totalitarian dictatorships and they end up building palaces and monuments to themselves while most of the people stay dirt poor.

So in general, I don't think anyone really knows what is going to happen.

I can only hope that whomever it is, they are benevolent and put the good of the nation over personal wealth, but that's ridiculously rare.

I think the first thing that would happen is the current government would immediately fold, and whoever the strongest group is they would take power. I would imagine that is the shiites becuase they are the largest group. Probably islamic law would be instilled and they would execute some of the more important Sunni's to show who's boss, then the country would start behaving a lot like Iran.... that's my best guess.

ArmsinaV

Pacomc79 wrote:

honestly. I have no idea. It could be 1000 times worse and destabilize the whole region or It could be not as bad as anyone thinks.

One thing I know that will be a problem if the US pulls out is the lack of good infrastructure. Water, Electric, Sewage etc. But that is a problem now and it's not a quick fix.

Also to make money the country will need to protect it's oil pipelines, I'm not sure how they will do that, I also don't know what will happen with the government.

Generally the basic problem will be that even though the country has wealthy oil resources, whomever takes power will still need to use that money to build or rebuild the countries infrastructure. That almost never happens in totalitarian dictatorships and they end up building palaces and monuments to themselves while most of the people stay dirt poor.

So in general, I don't think anyone really knows what is going to happen.

I can only hope that whomever it is, they are benevolent and put the good of the nation over personal wealth, but that's ridiculously rare.

I think the first thing that would happen is the current government would immediately fold, and whoever the strongest group is they would take power. I would imagine that is the shiites becuase they are the largest group. Probably islamic law would be instilled and they would execute some of the more important Sunni's to show who's boss, then the country would start behaving a lot like Iran.... that's my best guess.

Having said that, do you think the US should stay to avoid that?

Eliot Rosewater

I believe very strongly that deaths would decline.

Also 150,000 fathers, mothers, brothers, sisters, sons and daughters would be out of harm's way and back home with their loved ones.

LikeAnOcean

I thought about this the other day. As much as I am against this war and want our boys out of there, it could get alot deadlier if we leave. I mean if we sacrifice five U.S. troops everyday to keep hundreds of Iraqis from dying, is it not worth it?

We fucked her (Iraq) and now she's pregnant. Is it morally responsible to just run away and not pay child support?

Eliot Rosewater

LikeAnOcean wrote:

I mean if we sacrifice five U.S. troops everyday to keep hundreds of Iraqis from dying, is it not worth it?

A) I guess you should ask the families of those five U.S. troops.
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/10/12/145222

Derrick

The US is never leaving Iraq. The US still has bases in Japan, Germany, and Cuba. Deal with it.

NCfan

We would be handing Iran the invitation to take over Iraq and create yet another theocratic puppet state along side Syria and a teetering Lebanon.

Al Sadr would be their main guy, and men and supplies would poor across an unprotected border. With an overwhelming number of Shias in Iraq, and a rougue army full of Hizbollah soldiers that has no international enemies who are willing to step in and oppose them - it will make short work of the Sunnis who are brave enough to fight back.

The only thing that would stop Iran is if their effort dragged their already tanking economy down to the point of civil revolt. But with billions to be made from Iraqi oil deals, and a new base from which to pressure Israel and Lebanon - I think the prize will seem worth the risk.

jlew24asu

don't gimme no wrote:

I believe very strongly that deaths would decline.

I cant agree with this, but I cant prove you to be wrong either.

don't gimme no wrote:

Also 150,000 fathers, mothers, brothers, sisters, sons and daughters would be out of harm's way and back home with their loved ones.

I certainly can not argue you with this. so true.

mammasan

ArmsinaV wrote:

Having said that, do you think the US should stay to avoid that?

If the Iraqi government was doing it's share i would probably be more hesitant of us leaving but as it stands the Iraqi government has missed every single goal set for them. If the Iraqis don't want to help themselves it doesn't matter how long we stay there things will not get better.

my2hands

it is all going as planned... invade and topple the regime... install puppet regime... let situation get progressively worse so we cant pull out... install permanent bases during chaos... continue to make argument we cant leave because it will become an even worse disaster... seize control of the iraqi oil through friendly energy legislation... perpetuate US hegemony in the region with permanent presence... cash the fucking check and laugh all the way to the bank

anyone that doesnt think this was all in the plan is mistaken, IMO

the Iraq occupation is going just as planned folks... if everything went "smoothly" and the regime was toppled and order remained then we would have had to pull out a long time ago "mission accomplished"... and there is no fucking way we are handing iraq and it's oil back to it's people. no fucking way.

Cosmo

NCfan wrote:

We would be handing Iran the invitation to take over Iraq and create yet another theocratic puppet state along side Syria and a teetering Lebanon.

Al Sadr would be their main guy, and men and supplies would poor across an unprotected border. With an overwhelming number of Shias in Iraq, and a rougue army full of Hizbollah soldiers that has no international enemies who are willing to step in and oppose them - it will make short work of the Sunnis who are brave enough to fight back.

The only thing that would stop Iran is if their effort dragged their already tanking economy down to the point of civil revolt. But with billions to be made from Iraqi oil deals, and a new base from which to pressure Israel and Lebanon - I think the prize will seem worth the risk.

...
How do you stop this from happening?
Answer: You never leave.
...
What you are saying would happen will happen whenever we leave... be it today or 10 or 20 years from now. Iraq will always have a Shi'ite Majority (as will Iran)... they will always have Islam as their main religion and they will always have oil under their feet.
Guys like Al Sadr idolized Ayatollah Khomeini... the Umam Ali Mosque in Najaf is the holiest site to the Shi'ia sect of Islam... Shi'ites MUST make a pilgrimage at least once in their lifetime to this mosque. The door to Iran is already open... we opened it because Saddam Hussein was the one that had it shut to keep them out. We already invited Iran in with Democratic Elections that insure the Shi'ite Majority will rise to power.
...
Also, consider this alternative. The Iraqi Shi'ites keep us around to train and equip their Army... after 10 or 15 years of getting a well established Army... they tell us to leave.
What do we do?

Abuskedti

Pacomc79 wrote:

honestly. I have no idea. It could be 1000 times worse and destabilize the whole region or It could be not as bad as anyone thinks.

One thing I know that will be a problem if the US pulls out is the lack of good infrastructure. Water, Electric, Sewage etc. But that is a problem now and it's not a quick fix.

Also to make money the country will need to protect it's oil pipelines, I'm not sure how they will do that, I also don't know what will happen with the government.

Generally the basic problem will be that even though the country has wealthy oil resources, whomever takes power will still need to use that money to build or rebuild the countries infrastructure. That almost never happens in totalitarian dictatorships and they end up building palaces and monuments to themselves while most of the people stay dirt poor.


So in general, I don't think anyone really knows what is going to happen.

I can only hope that whomever it is, they are benevolent and put the good of the nation over personal wealth, but that's ridiculously rare.

I think the first thing that would happen is the current government would immediately fold, and whoever the strongest group is they would take power. I would imagine that is the shiites becuase they are the largest group. Probably islamic law would be instilled and they would execute some of the more important Sunni's to show who's boss, then the country would start behaving a lot like Iran.... that's my best guess.

Can't be 1000 times worse.. If absolutely every Iraqi were killed, that would be less than 1000 times the number already killed.

If we left - there would be a fight for control. There will be a winer and loser - or a comprimise. Iran would fund one side - Saudi another.. Others would ally themselves with one side or other - or one proposed peace plan or other.. some equilibrium will eventually be reached.

that is not worse at all. As it is now - Iraq is moving further and further from peace as many die... there is no worse than that. At least they should be allowed to fight for their own resolution -

Abookamongstthemany

Abuskedti wrote:

Can't be 1000 times worse.. If absolutely every Iraqi were killed, that would be less than 1000 times the number already killed.

If we left - there would be a fight for control. There will be a winer and loser - or a comprimise. Iran would fund one side - Saudi another.. Others would ally themselves with one side or other - or one proposed peace plan or other.. some equilibrium will eventually be reached.

that is not worse at all. As it is now - Iraq is moving further and further from peace as many die... there is no worse than that. At least they should be allowed to fight for their own resolution -

Exactly. No good is coming from us staying there any longer.

pjalive21

icarus wrote:

i see either of these options happening:

a: a strong leader will emerge and will clamp down on the country and instill some kind of rule. this leader will be a shiite, pro-iranian, anti-american, and will probably be named al sadr.

or

b: turkey will invade kurdistan, iran will come in, and saudi arabia will get involved to protect the sunnis. all out regional war.

or

c: more of the same. weak governments struggling to maintain security and order for the next few decades. the country will go in and out of chaos.

we leave we might as well hand over Iraq to Iran plain and simple, this doesnt mean that i want us over there forever, but damn what else can be done now that we are neck deep in this

Bu2

of fuel and pull the fuck out.

This whole thing was for oil, it's all about the oil, and all of you already know that. Saddam Hussein was Iraq's leader - with our blessing at one point in time - but now he's dead and someone else will have to deal with pulling the country together again after we end our occupation. BFD.

Get ready for the Hybrids, folks. It's the only solution that makes sense.

Cosmo

pjalive21 wrote:

we leave we might as well hand over Iraq to Iran plain and simple, this doesnt mean that i want us over there forever, but damn what else can be done now that we are neck deep in this

...
We have already handed Iraq over to Iran... By giving them free elections. Who do you think is going to rise to power in a country who has a 60% to 20% to 20% majority in a free election? If you guessed the 60%... give yourself a Gold Star.
Shi'ites are the wonderful people who gave the World the Islamic Revolution... Ayatollah Khomeini... Hezbollah... Muqtada Al Sadr. They have already opened door to Iran... the door that was being held shut by Saddam Hussein who limited the immigration of Shi'ites into Iraq. And the Shi'ites want Iraq... the Umam Ali Mosque in Najaf is the Holiest Site in the Shi'ia religion. Shi'ite Muslims must make a pilgrimage to this site at least once in their lives. The oil under foot is a bonus to Iran.
We knew this going in... there is a reason why President Reagan sided with Saddam Hussein... Iran was worse (to American interests) than Iraq. Hussein was a gate keeper that America and most of the Arab states wanted in place.... sort of the bad guy bouncer that keeps the rif-raf out of the club. Was it a good policy? In 1980 it was. Looking back... maybe not.
The removal of Saddam Hussein is the Ayatollah Khomeini's wet dream... he is probably cumming in his grave... especially since it was the 'Great Satan' himself, that brokered the deal. Maybe Allah really IS on Iran's side.

tybird

If we pulled a South Vietnam type pull-out....I see at least two new nations being formed. The Kurds in the north of Iraq and whoever was left after the bloodbath in the south of the country between the two Islamic factions.

The Kurds would be in immediate danger from Turkey, unless they swung some kind of deal with the U.S. or some other country to balance the Turkish threat.

Cosmo

tybird wrote:

If we pulled a South Vietnam type pull-out....I see at least two new nations being formed. The Kurds in the north of Iraq and whoever was left after the bloodbath in the south of the country between the two Islamic factions.

The Kurds would be in immediate danger from Turkey, unless they swung some kind of deal with the U.S. or some other country to balance the Turkish threat.

...
That's why the Biden... is it Biden?... plan to 'Patrition' Iraq is pure idiocy. If anyone is going to draw boundaries... it should be the IRAQIS DOING THE DRAWING... NOT the Americans.
Turkey has always had a Kurd problem... the last thing Turkey (a NATO Ally) wants is a seperate Kurdish State that believes Southern Turkey should be part of it. Some sort of skirmish between the Kurdish State in Iraq and Turkey, will more than likely, be in that future.
...
Iraq is a mess. The only way I see an out is one of two things...
A. The U.S. finally takes Iraq serious and send in an additional 120,000 to 140,000 U.S. troops into Iraq to provide security in the ENTIRE country... and up the spending costs to about 25 to 30 Billion dollars a month...
OR...
B. Get the fuck out and let the enevitable occur and just try to keep the bullshit inside Iraq... and not spilling over into neighboring countries.
...
doing it on the cheap... is and always has been the worst way to handle it. Well... that, and diverting attention away from Iraq with Gay Marriages and steroids in baseball.

tybird

Cosmo wrote:

...
That's why the Biden... is it Biden?... plan to 'Patrition' Iraq is pure idiocy. If anyone is going to draw boundaries... it should be the IRAQIS DOING THE DRAWING... NOT the Americans.
Turkey has always had a Kurd problem... the last thing Turkey (a NATO Ally) wants is a seperate Kurdish State that believes Southern Turkey should be part of it. Some sort of skirmish between the Kurdish State in Iraq and Turkey, will more than likely, be in that future.
...
Iraq is a mess. The only way I see an out is one of two things...
A. The U.S. finally takes Iraq serious and send in an additional 120,000 to 140,000 U.S. troops into Iraq to provide security in the ENTIRE country... and up the spending costs to about 25 to 30 Billion dollars a month...
OR...
B. Get the fuck out and let the enevitable occur and just try to keep the bullshit inside Iraq... and not spilling over into neighboring countries.
...
doing it on the cheap... is and always has been the worst way to handle it. Well... that, and diverting attention away from Iraq with Gay Marriages and steroids in baseball.

Yes, the late 19th and early 20th century method of the "Powers" drawing the maps in Asia and Africa are over. We have to accept the fact that the fever of "Nationalism" in regards to the nation-state (as opposed to the etho-religious group) is just not going to catch on with some societies. If they, the Iraqis, want to divorce each other...we should help them along that path....mediate the process, don't dictate it. Of course, someone is going to have to deal with the Turks. There is no bloodless path to end this situation.

JordyWordy

last two posts make very good sense. if the different ethnic groups in the country want to draw up new boundaries that makes good sense, but the problem with the middle east is that compromise usually doesnt happen in these situations...war usually happens

but it is not for the US to attempt to prevent the inevitable, whatever that may be. either way Iraq has to move on from this stage sooner or later, and the person who pointed out that the US will never leave (military bases) is right - how many Pacific Island nations have US bases after WW2 occupation? (also other examples they gave).

the consequences of a pullout may seem terrible but i really dont think any of it could make the area much more unstable than it already is (and has been for 60 years at least).