Predictions for 2006 midterms...
Purple Hawk
Posts: 1,300
we have our threads dealing with stealing elections, with expectations, I just wanted to get my prediction out there, taking everything into account.
I see the Democrats taking 3 to 4 Senate seats (need 6) and 17 to 18 House seats (15). I've had a chance to look at the individual races, and my reasoning goes as follows (copied from another thread):
here's my best guess for the House...i've broken the marginal districts down into a couple different groups.
First, you have Democrats who are leading now (according to http://www.realclearpolitics.com) in open seats or where there is an Democratic incumbent, in a neutral or pro-demcratic district. There are 9 of these, probably all, or at least 8 would be won by the Democrats. If they win them all, They can pick up six seats there.
Next, you have Democrats who are leading now in open seats or where there is an Democratic incumbent, but in a heavy pro-republican district. There are 6 of these. 4 are current GOP seats. Dems can realistically pick up 3 here. so that's 9
The next group is important. The are Republican incumbents who are behind defending their seats in moderate districts. There are 13 of these races...and most (7) of the races are within 5 points...this will be a test of incumbency...which is usually pretty strong. if you disagree with my final prediction, it's probably due to my guess in these races, but I seethe dems at best picking up 5 of these. so that's a total of 14
The final group are Republican incumbents who are behind in heavy republican districts. There are 8 of these, and I think 3 democratic challengers will be successful (indiana 8 and 2 and Ny 29) so that's a total pick up of 17
so if the democrats can hold onto all their seats, they should pick up 17 seats, giving them a slim majority...
There are thirteen key races that I'm focusing on, and these are where dems lead in the polls, but there's an R incumbent. it's incumbency vs. national tides...these 13 will tell a lot:
Pennsylvania 7
New Hampshire 2
Florida 22
New Mexico 1
Ohio 15
Connecticut 5
Kentucky 3
Ohio 1
Pennsylvania 6
Connecticut 4
New York 20
California 11
Connecticut 2
The following are also interesting, b.c dems lead, but there's an R incumbent, and the districts are heavily republicans.
Indiana 2
North Carolina 11
New York 29
Colorado 4
Indiana 9
Pennsylvania 10
Indiana 8
Kentucky 4
These are the 21 races that will decide the election, in my opinion.
I see the Democrats taking 3 to 4 Senate seats (need 6) and 17 to 18 House seats (15). I've had a chance to look at the individual races, and my reasoning goes as follows (copied from another thread):
here's my best guess for the House...i've broken the marginal districts down into a couple different groups.
First, you have Democrats who are leading now (according to http://www.realclearpolitics.com) in open seats or where there is an Democratic incumbent, in a neutral or pro-demcratic district. There are 9 of these, probably all, or at least 8 would be won by the Democrats. If they win them all, They can pick up six seats there.
Next, you have Democrats who are leading now in open seats or where there is an Democratic incumbent, but in a heavy pro-republican district. There are 6 of these. 4 are current GOP seats. Dems can realistically pick up 3 here. so that's 9
The next group is important. The are Republican incumbents who are behind defending their seats in moderate districts. There are 13 of these races...and most (7) of the races are within 5 points...this will be a test of incumbency...which is usually pretty strong. if you disagree with my final prediction, it's probably due to my guess in these races, but I seethe dems at best picking up 5 of these. so that's a total of 14
The final group are Republican incumbents who are behind in heavy republican districts. There are 8 of these, and I think 3 democratic challengers will be successful (indiana 8 and 2 and Ny 29) so that's a total pick up of 17
so if the democrats can hold onto all their seats, they should pick up 17 seats, giving them a slim majority...
There are thirteen key races that I'm focusing on, and these are where dems lead in the polls, but there's an R incumbent. it's incumbency vs. national tides...these 13 will tell a lot:
Pennsylvania 7
New Hampshire 2
Florida 22
New Mexico 1
Ohio 15
Connecticut 5
Kentucky 3
Ohio 1
Pennsylvania 6
Connecticut 4
New York 20
California 11
Connecticut 2
The following are also interesting, b.c dems lead, but there's an R incumbent, and the districts are heavily republicans.
Indiana 2
North Carolina 11
New York 29
Colorado 4
Indiana 9
Pennsylvania 10
Indiana 8
Kentucky 4
These are the 21 races that will decide the election, in my opinion.
And you ask me what I want this year
And I try to make this kind and clear
Just a chance that maybe we'll find better days
Cuz I don't need boxes wrapped in strings
And desire and love and empty things
Just a chance that maybe we'll find better days
And I try to make this kind and clear
Just a chance that maybe we'll find better days
Cuz I don't need boxes wrapped in strings
And desire and love and empty things
Just a chance that maybe we'll find better days
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Comments
I'm not saying it's going to be a repeat of '04, but I doubt the Republicans lose control of the house or the senate. The Republicans have campaigned in a manner more subject to maintain the status quo than to gain any further power. And understandibly so.
"What I lack in decorum, I make up for with an absence of tact."
Camden 5-28-06
Washington, D.C. 6-22-08
a republican steal with this much tension will ease the public to understand that threw it all the republicans are the majority, FALL into line already!
No, I'm not kidding you. Sorry, I don't understand the rest.
"What I lack in decorum, I make up for with an absence of tact."
Camden 5-28-06
Washington, D.C. 6-22-08
now THAT'S intelligent conversation.
And I try to make this kind and clear
Just a chance that maybe we'll find better days
Cuz I don't need boxes wrapped in strings
And desire and love and empty things
Just a chance that maybe we'll find better days
Ive always supported the Republican party. That being said, I hope the dems take congress... I think that "pissing match" actually serves somewhat of a purpose- as we've all seen what happens when one party controls too much.
I'm all for check and balances and god knows we need them now more than ever. My point is that except on a few social issues the Dems are basically the same as the Republicans. A Democrat might notresort to Bush's Cowboy diplomacy but our foreign policy will not change much. Our dependence on foreign oil will not change much. The massive debt we have amassed will still be there. Public education in this country will still be the same. There will be no national healthcare system. The rich will still get richer, the poor will still get poorer, and the middle class will continue down the road to extinction. Nothing serious will be done on tax reform, which is a huge issue to me. Our troops will still be Iraq getting killed for god knows what reason. Nothing will change.
My favorite thing is how the extreme left, and the extreme right want some of the same things, just for different reasons.
for example:
I dont want cursing to be on over the air tv- you might hurt someones feelings- Generic Liberal folk.
I dont want cursing to be on over the air tv- you might hurt god's feelings- generic conservative folk.