Global warming's effect on hurricane strength disputed in new report

binauralsounds

The Associated Press
Posted July 28 2006, 4:09 PM EDT


MIAMI -- Scientists linking the increased strength of hurricanes over recent years to global warming have not accounted for outdated technology that may have underestimated storms' power decades ago, researchers said in a report published Friday.

The research by Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center challenges two studies published last year by other respected climatologists.

One of the studies, by Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was considered the first major research to challenge the belief that global warming's affect on hurricanes was too slight to accurately measure and that climate change likely won't substantially change tropical storms for decades.

And, if Landsea and his three co-authors are correct, it was fundamentally flawed.

``The methodology is fine. There's no problem with the way they analyzed the data,'' said Landsea, who is science and operations officer at the hurricane center. ``The problem is with the data itself.''

The study claims historical storm data has been rendered out-of-date by new technology that better estimates the strength of hurricanes. He pointed to advancements in the quality of satellite imagery that is used to estimate a storm's strength when it can't be directly measured by aircraft or on land.

In short, Landsea said, there were far more Category 4 and 5 storms in decades past than previously thought, because satellite imagery has improved so greatly.

The article was published in the journal Science. It is co-authored by Bruce Harper, an Australian engineer who is an expert on Pacific cyclones; Karl Hoarau, a professor at Cergy-Pontoise University in France; and John Knaff, a researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It looks at only a small sampling of historical storm data, though the authors plan to examine further hurricane information they believe will further prove their thesis.

Emanuel discounted the Science piece and said he put considerable effort into accounting for changes in estimating storm strength.

``They ignore the most significant finding from my Nature paper _ that Atlantic hurricane activity is highly correlated with sea surface temperature, which is comparatively well-measured,'' Emanuel said by e-mail from the Queen Mary 2, where he is lecturing on storms. ``This cannot be explained away by invoking rather qualitative arguments about data quality.''

Emanuel analyzed records of storm measurements made by aircraft and satellites since the 1950s. He found the amount of energy released in these storms in both the North Atlantic and the North Pacific oceans increased, especially since the mid-1970s.

His study was published last year, along with another Science piece that linked a double in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes since 1970 to the rise of ocean surface temperatures.

Landsea said he did not dispute global warming was occurring or that it could influence hurricanes; he said it simply was not proven by the storm information available.

The studies did not address fluctuation in the number of hurricanes, only in their intensity. But researchers agree that the Atlantic basin is in a period of higher hurricane activity that could last decades.

PaperPlates

Im of the opinion that the world hasn't really changed as much as we'd like to think. I think its presumptuous to think we could affect the earth as much as we like to imagine. I think that news just gets around faster/more. There's always been wicked, devastating storms. There's always been war. There's always been hunger. And there's always been joy. Its the same as it ever was.

monkey spanker

"I think its presumptuous to think we could affect the earth as much as we like to imagine. I think that news just gets around faster/more. There's always been wicked, devastating storms. There's always been war. There's always been hunger. And there's always been joy. Its the same as it ever was."

you are exactly correct. but then liberals would have one less thing to hate america about.

suffragette

The Great Lakes are losing water. Lake Erie will soon look like it did when the first settlers arrived. Global warming baby.

EvilToasterElf

Cool article, it does bring up a good point about a variety of climatology studies.

However, there are just as many studies of things like ice core samples in the arctice, coral beds, and ocean bed cores which this argument would be completely invalid against.

The Earth is warming, yes, there should be a warming trend according to scientific analysis of the Earth's natural processes.

The debate is how much the post industrial era has aided and been a catalyst for the warming to accelerate.

Ocean currents are changing at phenomenal rates, massive pieces of glaciers are melting and sinking into the sea.

There are changes happening which we shouldn't even be able to measure because historically they've happened over the course of hundreds of thousands or millions of years.

There is no doubt in my mind that the effects of industrialized civilization have effected the overall macroenvironmental balancing forces of the Earth. The real debate, and the only real debate that has been taking place for the last decade is the extent of our influence, the exact processes, and how to curtail those forces.

sourdough

PaperPlates wrote:

Im of the opinion that the world hasn't really changed as much as we'd like to think. I think its presumptuous to think we could affect the earth as much as we like to imagine. I think that news just gets around faster/more. There's always been wicked, devastating storms. There's always been war. There's always been hunger. And there's always been joy. Its the same as it ever was.

It is FACT that it is changing. The warmest years on record have all occurred within the last decade, with each year breaking the previous year's record. CO2 has gone up every year. The statistics support this.

We know the mechanisms for hurricanes to form. Warm sea water is the fundamental ingredient. Warmer temps=more hurricanes.

monkey spanker

then where are the hurricanes this year?? i guess we are going through an ice age again, like they told us we were doing in the early 80's. alarmists are amusing.

SundaySilence

sourdough wrote:

It is FACT that it is changing. The warmest years on record have all occurred within the last decade, with each year breaking the previous year's record. CO2 has gone up every year. The statistics support this.

We know the mechanisms for hurricanes to form. Warm sea water is the fundamental ingredient. Warmer temps=more hurricanes.

Right, there will be more frequent and more severe hurricanes. The dispute is how soon and if it is happening already. The statistics support that it is happening already. This article is reexamining the techniques used to measure this.

onelongsong

scientists rarely agree. if you look at the hurricane seasons since the tsunami; the patterns have changed. this is because the initial earthquake shifted the earth on it's axis. this in turn shifted the weather patterns. global warming is past the point of no return. if you saw tom brokov's special about global warming; you saw the worlds' ice melting from one pole to the other. my area has gotten over 3 times the normal annual rainfall and the high desert plants here are being overwatered; and dying off. take a small plane ride over the canadian forests and you will see that the tops of the trees are dead. things like this are everywhere. plants exchange the CO2 for O2 and as the vegetation dies; so will we.

know1

binauralsounds wrote:

The Associated Press
Posted July 28 2006, 4:09 PM EDT


MIAMI -- Scientists linking the increased strength of hurricanes over recent years to global warming have not accounted for outdated technology that may have underestimated storms' power decades ago, researchers said in a report published Friday.

This is exactly what I've been trying to say about all the "science" surrounding global warming - that our measuring technologies today are vastly different than they were just a short time ago...nevermind anything more than 100 years or so ago. We're not getting an apples-to-apples comparison.

know1

sourdough wrote:

It is FACT that it is changing. The warmest years on record have all occurred within the last decade, with each year breaking the previous year's record. CO2 has gone up every year. The statistics support this.

We know the mechanisms for hurricanes to form. Warm sea water is the fundamental ingredient. Warmer temps=more hurricanes.

I believe the fact tha we're measuring differently now contributes to those so-called warmest years on record.

world

The AP is probably backed by big oil and Bush.

EvilToasterElf

know1 wrote:

I believe the fact tha we're measuring differently now contributes to those so-called warmest years on record.

Measuring the strength of hurricanes in the ocean, hundreds of miles from any equipment, and checking the mercury on a thermometer are completely different things.

PaperPlates

sourdough wrote:

It is FACT that it is changing. The warmest years on record have all occurred within the last decade, with each year breaking the previous year's record. CO2 has gone up every year. The statistics support this.

We know the mechanisms for hurricanes to form. Warm sea water is the fundamental ingredient. Warmer temps=more hurricanes.

Compared to the earths age, our record doesnt mean dick. "Warmest years on record" are nanoseconds in the normal cycles of earth. Im not saying we dont affect it at all, just that I doubt we're truly capable of inducing as much change as we give ourselves for.

BTW, jut for giggles, how long have we been keeping usable accurate records of global temperatures?

SundaySilence

PaperPlates wrote:

Compared to the earths age, our record doesnt mean dick. "Warmest years on record" are nanoseconds in the normal cycles of earth. Im not saying we dont affect it at all, just that I doubt we're truly capable of inducing as much change as we give ourselves for.

BTW, jut for giggles, how long have we been keeping usable accurate records of global temperatures?

200,000 years

rightondude

monkey spanker wrote:

then where are the hurricanes this year?? i guess we are going through an ice age again, like they told us we were doing in the early 80's. alarmists are amusing.

not as amusing as being ignorant and wrong though

pjalive21

if you do a little research on global warming you will see the earth as a whole has only increased in temperature 1 degree in the past (correct me if im wrong) 50 years

Pearl Jam and toast

monkey spanker wrote:

"I think its presumptuous to think we could affect the earth as much as we like to imagine. I think that news just gets around faster/more. There's always been wicked, devastating storms. There's always been war. There's always been hunger. And there's always been joy. Its the same as it ever was."

you are exactly correct. but then liberals would have one less thing to hate america about.

That is ridiculous.

I don't blame the storms on global warming.. it's just a big big issue that everyone is talking about that coincided with a heavy storm season.

But global warming exists... it'll take a while longer to see any big effects though.

By the way, why the hell wouldn't you want to lower dependance on fossil fuels and clean the air anyway? This shouldn't be a liberal issue, it's just making all the conservatives who go out and completely disagree with everything that remotely evidences climate change look like dicks.

LikeAnOcean

onelongsong wrote:

scientists rarely agree. if you look at the hurricane seasons since the tsunami; the patterns have changed. this is because the initial earthquake shifted the earth on it's axis. this in turn shifted the weather patterns. global warming is past the point of no return. if you saw tom brokov's special about global warming; you saw the worlds' ice melting from one pole to the other. my area has gotten over 3 times the normal annual rainfall and the high desert plants here are being overwatered; and dying off. take a small plane ride over the canadian forests and you will see that the tops of the trees are dead. things like this are everywhere. plants exchange the CO2 for O2 and as the vegetation dies; so will we.

Does anyone have any further information on the earthquake causing the axis of the earth to shift? I find that hard to believe, but would be interested in seeing how it shifted if so.

EDIT: Nevermind.. damn it, our days are shorter now!

* change in length of day: -2.676 microseconds
* polar motion excitation X : -0.670 milliarcseconds
* polar motion excitation Y: 0.475 milliarcseconds

http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/PLATETEC/RotationQk2004.HTM

PaperPlates

SundaySilence wrote:

200,000 years

We've been studying them for 200,000 years? I think maybe very recently we've started being able to look that far back. And Id bet even within 200,000 years, the temperatures of the earth have varied both ways greatly. Not speaking as a scientist of course.

LikeAnOcean

PaperPlates wrote:

We've been studying them for 200,000 years? I think maybe very recently we've started being able to look that far back. And Id bet even within 200,000 years, the temperatures of the earth have varied both ways greatly. Not speaking as a scientist of course.

Don't forget the ice age was 10,000 years ago!.. and 60 million years ago the earth was MUCH warmer for the dinosaurs!