Iran: Pre emptive strike against Israel
MrBrian
Posts: 2,672
Haaretz
By Barak Ravid
Senior Tehran officials are recommending a preemptive strike against Israel to prevent an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear reactors, a senior Islamic Republic official told foreign diplomats two weeks ago in London.
The official, Dr. Seyed G. Safavi, said recent threats by Israeli authorities strengthened this position, but that as of yet, a preemptive strike has not been integrated into Iranian policy.
Safavi is head of the Research Institute of Strategic Studies in Tehran, and an adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The institute is directly affiliated with Khamenei's office and with the Revolutionary Guards, and advises both on foreign policy issues.
Safavi said a small, experienced group of officials is lobbying for a preemptive strike against Israel. "The recent Israeli declarations and harsh rhetoric on a strike against Iran put ammunition in these individuals' hands," he said.
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz said in June that Israel would be forced to strike the Iranian nuclear reactor if Tehran continues to pursue its uranium enrichment program.
Safavi said Tehran recently drafted a new policy for responding to an Israeli or American attack on its nuclear facilities. While the previous policy called for attacks against Israel and American interests in the Middle East and beyond, the new policy is to target Israel alone.
He added that many Revolutionary Guard leaders want to respond to a U.S. attack on Iranian soil by striking Israel, as they believe Israel would be partner to any U.S. action.
Safavi said that Iran's nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes only, and that Khamenei recently released a fatwa against the use of weapons of mass destruction, though the contents of that religious ruling have not yet been publicized.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1030253.html
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By Barak Ravid
Senior Tehran officials are recommending a preemptive strike against Israel to prevent an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear reactors, a senior Islamic Republic official told foreign diplomats two weeks ago in London.
The official, Dr. Seyed G. Safavi, said recent threats by Israeli authorities strengthened this position, but that as of yet, a preemptive strike has not been integrated into Iranian policy.
Safavi is head of the Research Institute of Strategic Studies in Tehran, and an adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The institute is directly affiliated with Khamenei's office and with the Revolutionary Guards, and advises both on foreign policy issues.
Safavi said a small, experienced group of officials is lobbying for a preemptive strike against Israel. "The recent Israeli declarations and harsh rhetoric on a strike against Iran put ammunition in these individuals' hands," he said.
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz said in June that Israel would be forced to strike the Iranian nuclear reactor if Tehran continues to pursue its uranium enrichment program.
Safavi said Tehran recently drafted a new policy for responding to an Israeli or American attack on its nuclear facilities. While the previous policy called for attacks against Israel and American interests in the Middle East and beyond, the new policy is to target Israel alone.
He added that many Revolutionary Guard leaders want to respond to a U.S. attack on Iranian soil by striking Israel, as they believe Israel would be partner to any U.S. action.
Safavi said that Iran's nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes only, and that Khamenei recently released a fatwa against the use of weapons of mass destruction, though the contents of that religious ruling have not yet been publicized.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1030253.html
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Comments
I don't see a pre-emptive strike coming from anyone other than Israel itself.
Let's pre-emptive their pre-emptive...
Agreed..
Iran is trying to string the world along until it becomes a nuclear power. They need to continue to appear as 'the good guy' through as much of the Intl Community as possible. They have done a pretty decent job walking this line, while bringing the US's diplomatic capability/willingness into question.
Obama comes out, looks likely to win the election, and has said that talks will be opened with Iran. This means the pressure is shifted to Iran to also bargain in good faith. Now Iran will lose support in the Intl Community if they will not agree to a reasonable solution.
They need to retain the perception in some people's eyes that they may be the victims of US and Israeli persecution. An Isreali strike before Iran is called to the negotiating table may be the best thing for Iran. They may be leaking this 'plan' to goad Israel into action.
Iran has a very powerful military and would definitely give Israel a good fight, but I think this is a stupid move, and that they won't go through with it.
There is no real way that Iranian and Isreali ground forces could battle, geographically-speaking. Any fight would be in the air, and Israel holds all the cards there.
Either way though, I'm sure this is purely a political move, and not substantial at all.
Hizbullah and Hamas will mobilize in a heartbeat if Israel and Iran went to war. Add to that the possibility of Syria joining in. Ground forces can definitely battle. As for the battle in air, we all saw how successful their air force was against a militia like Hizbullah. Killing civilians at a rate of 10:1 with respect to Hizbullah fighters. I'm sure it would be even more successful against the Iranian army, I mean civilians.
Iran is not stupid to launch a pre-emptive strike against Israel knowing it will lose the only tiny support it has in the "western" world which comes from Russia. Not to mention, the very likely mobilization of a massive coalition force to launch an attack against Iran. This is just politics. Each one trying to weigh their balls on a balance to show the other they weigh more than theirs.
My air comment was in reference to long-range strikes at each other's territory. Iran has no real way to do this, except perhaps SCUD-type missiles. Any attack on Israel would be carried out by people like Hezbollah and Hamas, at Iran's behest. And such a strike would do nothing to hinder Israel's ability to hit Iran. It would simply increase Israel's motivation to do so about a thousand-fold.
I agree, though. This is just posturing.